Awakening and moving back. Civilization: the formation and development of exam questions The movement of civilization in the opposite direction crossword clue

Today, even people far from the economy keep an eye on the price of oil... It is she who determines the value of a particular currency and the national strategy of states in international politics... According to some scientists, oil, as a cheap energy resource, not only gave birth to modern civilization, but very soon will become the cause of its collapse.

The version of the coming decline of mankind is associated with the depletion of hydrocarbon reserves and was called Olduvai theory, which we have to check in the near future.

Cradle of humanity

Olduvai is a gorge in northern Tanzania, its length is about 40 kilometers, and the total area reaches 250 square kilometers.

What is it famous for? First of all - by their findings from the prehistoric period. During archaeological work from 1930 to 1960, the remains of the ancient man, called Homo habilis (Homo habilis), who lived on our planet about two million years ago. These people still resembled monkeys, but they had intelligence and used stone tools for hunting.

Their height reached one and a half meters, they moved on two limbs. The average life expectancy was 20-25 years. As a species, Homo habilis existed for at least 500,000 years, hunting and gathering.

Thanks to such finds, scientists call the Olduvai Gorge the cradle of humanity. By the way, the research carried out here significantly clarifies the classical theory of Friedrich Engels: the first intelligent man at the beginning of his evolution made not tools of labor, but tools of hunting.

The summit is already behind

In the early 2000s, the prominent American scientist Richard Duncan visited the Olduvai Gorge. His acquaintance with the history of a man of skill led to the creation of a scientific theory, which Duncan called Olduvai. What is its essence? It is the life of a skilled person that is normal for a biological species of people. It is for this kind of existence that nature created humanity. And in the foreseeable future, people will definitely return to such a life.

According to Richard Duncan's calculations, the history of modern industrial civilization can be represented as a hill: a path to the top, a certain plateau above and a path down. In his opinion, the summit has long been reached, and mankind will hold on to it for no more than 100 years.

That is, very soon there will be a decline of civilization, which will start a reverse movement - to the level of the 20s of the XX century, then in the direction of the enlightened XVIII century, then to the Middle Ages and, ultimately, to the primitive life of ancient Olduvai.

Back to the caves!

What is the reason for this forecast of the American analyst? According to Richard Duncan, humanity has risen in its development only thanks to the reserves of available energy in the form of oil and gas. But these reserves are constantly being depleted, and there is nowhere to wait for their replenishment.

Duncan's doctrine is based on mathematical and economic calculations and identifies three main phases of human development. The first of them Duncan calls pre-industrial, it is divided into periods A and B. Period A began three million years ago and ended in the 1760s - when the Scottish engineer James Watt invented and built steam engine(a patent for it was received in 1769).

During this period, people used renewable energy from the sun, wind and water. Then, until the end of the 1920s, period B lasted, a transition to the second phase. This was the era of simple tools and machines, and the beginning of the consumption of non-renewable energy resources, especially oil.

The key indicator of the next phase of human development, according to Richard Duncan, is energy consumption in the amount of 30% of the maximum possible value. It was this figure that was achieved by 1930, when the second, industrial phase of human development began.

Its expected duration should be about 100 years, until the level of consumption of non-renewable energy (that is, oil and gas) reaches 37% - according to Duncan's theory, this is a critical indicator, after which an inevitable decline should follow.

Thus, by 2030, the third phase of development will begin for humanity - post-industrial. Energy consumption will decline and civilization will start counting down. High industrial development will turn out to be only temporary, people must gradually return to their natural primitive state.

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Despite the seeming exoticism of this opinion, the Olduvai theory has many supporters. Their main reasoning is that oil reserves are rapidly decreasing, and there are no alternative sources of energy yet.

Moreover, Duncan's theory is supported by many authoritative studies - in particular, it is based on the ideas of the famous American geophysicist Marion King Hubbert, who in 1956 created the concept of “peak oil”.

Based on his point of view, by 1970 in the United States, and by 1995 all over the world, the historical maximum of oil consumption will be reached, which with certain fluctuations will last for several decades. And then society will face two paths - either to develop alternative energy(for example, atomic), or degrade and go back in its development.

According to Alexander Bychkov, Deputy Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), nuclear power currently accounts for 13-15% of total energy consumption - and will remain the same in the coming decades due to the enormous cost of nuclear power plants and the danger of their operation.

Thus, Richard Duncan's Olduvai theory does not seem far-fetched. Its supporters are convinced that in 15 years the oil will run out, and there will not be enough alternative energy sources to ensure the level of development achieved by mankind.

One of the most famous Western bestsellers in recent years is Matthew Stein's The End of Technology: How to Survive and Save the Planet Relying on own strength", Published in 2000. The author warns of the impending danger and absolutely seriously gives advice for a future life according to the laws of primitive society: how to find fresh water, what plants to eat, what to take instead of the usual pills, etc.

A special place in the book is occupied by the section on self-hypnosis, which should temper the character and resist possible depression against the background of memories of a previous life.

Opponents' opinions

Of course, like any scientific hypothesis, Richard Duncan's Olduvai theory has its opponents. And the author himself does not exclude other scenarios for the development of human society (however, among them, one of the first places is a general nuclear catastrophe).

1987 Nobel Laureate in Economics Robert Solow, arguing against Richard Duncan, writes that 80% of the US economy in recent decades has been driven by scientific and technological innovation, not cheap energy.

And Kenneth Rogoff, a former chief economist at the IMF and now a professor at Harvard University, believes that oil prices can stimulate the development of new technologies: as soon as the depletion of black gold is real, its value will rise sharply - and seemingly expensive and unprofitable alternative fuel will become a real replacement.

In addition, Duncan's scientific opponents ask the question: why, in fact, the depletion of oil and gas resources should lead mankind to cave conditions of existence? After all, people practically did not use hydrocarbons for a long time - and it would be much more logical to see a “rollback” of civilization, say, to the level of the 16th-17th centuries.

Objection is also raised by the speed of regression assumed by Richard Duncan, which, in his opinion, can occur during the life of one or two generations. Is it possible that humanity has been going so long to the peak of its development - and is it able to roll off it so quickly?

For whom the Bell Tolls?

Richard Duncan replies to this: the slide to life of Olduvai, unfortunately, will not be long and gradual. As soon as it appears real threat depletion of energy resources, fierce wars for their possession will begin. Because of them, the earth's population will sharply decline - according to Duncan's calculations, by the middle of the 21st century it will drop to two billion people and will continue to decline rapidly.

That is, two-thirds of humanity should die in the near future - from wars, hunger and disease. And the rest will die out and degrade to the level of a caveman.

In Hubbert's graph, total oil production over past and future years is presented as a symmetrical bell-shaped curve. The graph of human development presented by Richard Duncan looks the same. So far we are all at the level of the top of this bell. Will he ring for the death of our civilization?

Victor SVETLANIN

A 7-letter word, the first letter is "B", the second letter is "O", the third letter is "Z", the fourth letter is "B", the fifth letter is "P", the sixth letter is "A", the seventh letter is "T", a word with the letter "B", the last "T". If you do not know a word from a crossword or scanword, then our site will help you find the most difficult and unfamiliar words.

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The reverse movement in a person's life - the awakening, or dissolution of form, which began either due to old age, illness, weakness, loss of ability, or as a result of some personal tragedy, carries a huge potential for spiritual awakening - the disidentification of consciousness with form. Since in our modern culture there is very little spiritual truth, then not many people realize that this process contains an opportunity, and when “this” happens to them or to someone from their loved ones, they think that something terrible, wrong has happened, which is not should have been.

Our civilization is extremely ignorant about the human condition, and the more spiritual ignorance you have, the more you suffer. For many people, especially in the West, death is no more than an abstract concept, and therefore they have no idea what happens to a person who is on the verge of death. Many weary old people are locked up in nursing homes. Dead bodies are hidden, while in earlier cultures everyone could see them. Try now to see a dead body, and you will find out that it is actually illegal, except in cases involving close family members. Funeral homes even put makeup on the face. You are only allowed to see the combed version of death.

Since for most people death is just an abstract concept, they are completely unprepared for the disappearance of form that awaits them. When death approaches, they experience shock, misunderstanding, despair and great fear. Nothing makes any sense to them anymore, because all meaning and all goals in their lives were associated with accumulation, success, building, protection and a sense of fulfillment. Their life was associated with movement outward and identification with the form, that is, with the ego. Most people cannot understand what could be the point in their life, their world collapsing. And yet, in the reverse movement there is potentially even more deep meaning than moving outward.

The spiritual dimension traditionally enters people's lives precisely through the sunset in old age, through loss or personal tragedy. In other words, their inner goal appears only when the outer goal collapses and the shell of the ego begins to crack and fall apart. Events like these represent the beginning of a reverse movement towards the disappearance of form. Most ancient cultures, apparently, intuitively understood this process, and for this reason the old people were so respected and revered. Each of them was a repository of wisdom and gave others a dimension of depth, without which no civilization can exist for long. In our civilization, fully identified with the outer dimension and ignorant of the inner dimension of the spirit, the word "old" has a mostly negative connotation. It equates to the meaning of "useless", and if we call someone "old" it almost sounds like an insult. To avoid using this word, we use euphemisms such as "elderly", "venerable" and "elder". In the old days, in Indian tribes, the elders of the clans were treated with great honor and respect, and the "grandmother" was a figure of great importance. In modern society, the word "granny" means, at best, something diminutive. Why is the old considered useless? Because in old age the emphasis shifts from doing to Existence, and our civilization, lost in doing, knows nothing about Existence. She asks: “Existence? And what are you doing with him? "

For some people, the outward movement in the direction of growth and expansion is seriously undermined by the decline, which seems to be a premature turn and the beginning of a reverse movement towards dissolution of form. In some cases, this disruption is temporary; in others it is permanent. We believe that Small child should not see death, but the fact is that some children have to see the death of one or both parents, for example, due to illness or as a result of an accident, or even look into the face of their own death. Some children have congenital abnormalities that greatly impede the natural expansion of their lives. Or it happens that a serious limitation enters a person's life at a relatively young age.

"Premature" undermining of extensive development is also capable of triggering a process of spiritual awakening in a person. Ultimately, nothing happens that should not have happened, in other words, nothing happens that is not part of the larger whole and its purpose. Thus, the destruction or undermining of an external goal can lead to the finding of an internal and, therefore, to the emergence of a deeper external goal, attuned to the internal. Children who have experienced great suffering often become adults beyond their years in comparison with their peers.

That which is lost at the level of forms is acquired at the level of essence. In the traditional images of the "blind seer" or "wounded healer" present in ancient cultures and legends, certain serious loss of ability or inferiority at the level of form became the door to the world of the spirit. If you have had a direct experience of the impermanence of the nature of forms, then most likely you will never again overestimate their importance and, as a result, you will not lose yourself in blind pursuit of them or in attachment to them.

The opportunity presented by the dissolution of form, especially old age, is only beginning to be noticed and recognized in modern culture today. Most people continue to tragically miss this opportunity because their ego is just as identified with the reverse movement as it was identified with the outward movement. This leads to hardening of the egoic shell and is more a compression than an opening of the canal. The oppressed ego then spends the rest of its days whimpering or complaining, trapped in fear or anger, self-pity, guilt, blame and judgment, or any other negative mental-emotional state, or it uses escape strategies such as attachment to memories. thinking and talking about the past.

When the ego ceases to be identified with the reverse movement, then old age or the approach of death becomes what it should be: a channel to the world of the spirit. I have met people who are the living embodiment of this process. They glowed. Their weakening forms became transparent to the light of consciousness.

On the new earth, old people will receive universal recognition, and old age will be highly valued as the time of the flowering of consciousness. For those who continue to wander in the outer circumstances of their lives, it will be a time to return home late, if, of course, they awaken to the realization of their inner purpose. For many others, it will be the intensification and culmination of the awakening process.

This is quite a powerful, but also difficult thinking trick. In some cases, it is just natural to "move in the opposite direction." I want to get from London to Edinburgh. I know that as soon as I get to Newcastle, it will be very easy to get to Edinburgh from there. But how do I get to Newcastle? So, if I get to York, it’s not hard to get to Newcastle from there. But how do you get to York? You just need to get to Peterborough, and from there it will be easy to get to York. Now we need to get to Peterborough somehow. And the easiest way to get there is from London. So, the route has been chosen. The problem has been resolved.

In some cases, you can move methodically. If I get to this point, then from there it is not difficult to reach ultimate goal... But now that this point becomes a target, how to get there?

If goods were not available, thefts from shops would stop. But how do you make products unavailable? Place them behind a door that would only open upon presentation of a credit card. Or simply display samples of goods, and give the goods to the buyer only at the checkout. If shoplifters were easy to catch, they would be wary of stealing. But how to show the thieves that they can easily be caught? Placing video cameras everywhere, rewarding all buyers who help catch thieves, publicly announcing the names of those caught in the act, etc. are all ways to prevent shoplifting.

If it were impossible to take the stolen goods out of the store, then there would be no point in stealing them. How to make stolen items impossible to take out of the store? You can, for example, saturate all goods with a special one that would be eliminated only at the checkout, and put an angry dog at the exit that would sniff all customers leaving the store. In a sense, the “backtracking” method is a form of “redefining” or “transforming” a problem.

Going in the opposite direction usually requires one or more ideas as steps, as shown in the shoplifting example. In a sense, the fan of concepts is one of the forms of movement in the opposite direction. You can reach point A from point B. But how now to get to point B? From point B. So how do we get to point B?

Situation A. The problem of lack of parking spaces.

. More spacious parking is needed. This can mean either expanding the existing parking lot, completing the second tier or creating an underground site, or building an additional parking lot in another place, but with a bus service to the destination.

Situation B. A new restaurant, the owner of which wants to develop his business as quickly as possible.

Generalization method ... People need to find out about the new restaurant as soon as possible. Create a scandal around him. Invite celebrity lookalikes to dinner. Allow women to go topless.

Situation B. The problem of writing on the wall.

Generalization method ... Make the labels invisible. During the day, throw a special curtain on the wall that would cover the inscriptions that appeared at night.

In some cases, you can move methodically. If I get to this point, then from there it is quite easy to reach the final goal. But now that this point becomes a target, how to get there?

If it were impossible to take the stolen goods out of the store, then there would be no point in stealing them. How to make stolen items impossible to take out of the store? You can, for example, saturate all goods with a special smell that would be eliminated only at the checkout, and put an angry dog at the exit that would sniff all customers leaving the store. In a sense, the “backtracking” method is a form of “redefining” or “transforming” a problem.

Situation A. The problem of lack of parking spaces.

Generalization method. More spacious parking is needed. This can mean either expanding the existing parking lot, completing the second tier or creating an underground site, or building an additional parking lot in another place, but with a bus service to the destination.

Situation B. A new restaurant, the owner of which wants to develop his business as quickly as possible.

Generalization method... People need to find out about the new restaurant as soon as possible. Create a scandal around him. Invite celebrity lookalikes to dinner. Allow women to go topless.

Situation B. The problem of writing on the wall.

Generalization method... Make the labels invisible. During the day, throw a special curtain on the wall that would cover the inscriptions that appeared at night.

Fan of concepts

It is part of the generalization method.

On the right side of the page, we write the goal of our thinking. It should always assume the achievement of some result. There is a problem to be solved. There is a result to be obtained. Improvement should occur in a certain direction. A fan of concepts does not work with a model or an open, creative situation. The ultimate goal must be clearly defined.

Then we say what general concepts (called directions) will lead us to the final goal. Suppose we are considering a shortage of skilled workers. General concepts can be as follows:

Increase the recruitment of qualified personnel.

Reduce the need for qualified personnel.

To increase the labor productivity of existing workers.

We then take each of these concepts and define it as the ultimate goal. How can we achieve it? How do we move in this "direction"?

So how do you increase the number of skilled workers?

Additionally, hire several professionals.

Improve the qualifications of existing workers.

Recruit qualified workers from another enterprise to work out of state (external source).

How to reduce the need for qualified personnel?

Reduce the complexity of operations.

Introduce automation.

Reduce the number of operations.

Reduce work standards.

How to increase the productivity of existing workers?

Increase motivation to work.

Increase the length of the working day.

Constantly use the special skills and abilities of employees.

Make full use of their working hours.

Then we take each of these "concepts" and try to find practical ways to implement it. This should be done with every concept. Now the fan has opened, offering many solutions to the problem. Instead of looking at each concept, here are just a few examples.

Concept: improve the qualifications of personnel.

Idea: train your own workers.

Idea: entrust the work to your own employees by setting the task for them to independently improve their qualifications.

Idea: Together with other employers facing the same problem, create an institute to improve the skills of workers.

Concept: automation.

Idea: use expert systems to make decisions. Idea: introduce computer control of technology.

Idea: electronic scanning and creation of files of all documentation.

Concept: constant use of special skills and abilities of workers.

Idea: Provide workers with special skills with assistants for work that does not require these special skills.

The two main questions related to using the concept fan are:

1. How does it work? This question takes us to the wider end of the fan, where all ideas are. What is the real mechanism of this technique? How can buses help solve the problem of traffic congestion? Very simply - they will increase the "density" of movement: more people per vehicle.

2. How can this be achieved? This question takes us to the narrowed end of the fan, where certain concepts are located. What specific concepts can help make this idea a reality? How can this concept be applied and where? How to reduce the number of rides during rush hour? By adjusting the opening hours of enterprises in a special way. Communicate rush hour times so people can avoid it.

The same question can be found in different areas of the fan of concepts. For example, the decision to “do without” is both a broad direction, or idea, for solving the problem of water scarcity and a concept serving the idea of “reducing consumption”. The fan of concepts does not involve analysis, so you can repeat the same concept an unlimited number of times.

Typically multiple concept fan models are required. First, you create your first fan, but then you supplement and improve it, getting the second model. There may also be a third. This is a pretty powerful move, but it takes practice.

In describing the generalization method, I have already said that several ideas of varying degrees of generalization can be used simultaneously. In the fan of concepts, there are different levels for this. The first level is the most generalized, it is also called the main "direction". Then concepts follow. Finally, the very last level is “practical idea”.

Sometimes, between "direction" and "practical idea" there can be several levels of concepts. But each subsequent level is always more specific than the previous one.

We will now apply a fan of concepts to each of the three thought situations, and then move on to the third part of the generalization method.

Situation A. The problem of lack of parking space.

Fan of concepts . General directions can be as follows:

Expand the parking lot;

Reduce the size of the machines;

Reduce the number of clients;

Make people be content with the current situation.

We can follow in any of these directions, but as an example, consider only one - how to get people to be content with the current situation:

We let them set the rules for using the parking lot by themselves;

We set a reward for those who do not use the parking lot;

We arrange the drawing of lots;

We provide them with the best parking.

We allow them to set up a committee to develop a strategy for the use of the parking lot. Let them choose one of the options proposed by the committee by voting.

We increase the salary of those who voluntarily give up their right to use the parking lot. We allow those who do not use the parking lot to come to work later (or leave work earlier).

Every month, by drawing lots, those who will use the parking lot this month are selected. “This will help avoid jealousy and preference talk.

We organize a general stock of machines. Special minibuses for the fund are being bought. We will organize a direct bus service to the new parking lot.

Situation B. New restaurant.

Fan of concepts... The main directions here might look like this:

Attract local customers;

Conquer the regulars;

Attract people from afar.

For regulars, the concepts might be as follows:

Creation of a special club for regular visitors;

Introduction of permanent vouchers for them;

Providing special privileges for regulars.

For practical ideas on how to provide special privileges for patrons, the following options can be considered:

Guarantee the availability of a free table at any time or the opportunity to dine for free next time;

Pin the names of their regular customers at the tables;

Introduce a discount on wines;

Free the patrons from having to pay tips.

Provide regular customers the right to rent a restaurant for private celebrations and events.

You can follow in any direction and develop a few practical ideas for each concept. Here we have given only a few particular examples.

Situation B. The problem of inscriptions.

Fan of concepts... The main directions can be as follows:

To punish those who paint on the wall;

Make drawing on the wall impossible;

Make the labels easy to remove;

Make these lettering attractive;

Hide labels.

Let's go in the direction of making lettering attractive. How can this be achieved? Via:

Special rules;

Competitions;

Licenses.

How can the concept of “competition” be implemented?

Idea: groups compete for the right to paint on the wall during the week. First, the ideas they propose are presented to the commission in the form of a sketch. Authors better sketch get the right to use the wall for a week.

Idea: the wall is divided into several areas, and the competitors work by topic - each area is dedicated to a different topic. The audience acts as a jury and selects the best work.

Idea: those who voluntarily agree to wash the wall for a certain period are entitled to use it for the same period of time, that is, those who agree to wash the wall for a month are entitled to paint on it for a whole month.

In all of the examples above, I did not go into detail on every concept of the fan, as it would be very tedious for the reader. Working with the fan of concepts method takes time as it takes a lot of thought.

One of the main advantages of the fan of concepts is the opportunity to consider several ultimate goals of our activity: "How to achieve such and such a result?" The effect of a cascade is obtained, since each new goal leads to the emergence of a number of alternative options, each of which itself becomes a goal, again giving a certain number of new alternatives.

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