Analysis of market conditions. Goals, objectives and trips to the study of market conditions in the study of demand or market conditions

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Conceptual tasks of market research research:

analysis of dynamic patterns trends
determination of the degree of proportionality of market development
market stability assessment both in statics and in dynamics
analysis of the periodicity of market development, the allocation of cycles

To justify commercial solutions at the enterprise level, the study of the conjuncture is primarily aimed at analyzing the current state of specific commodity markets.

However, this should take into account the universal relationship of economic life phenomena: the study of any product market cannot be carried out isolated, out of connection with the general (general economic) provision.

The situation on a specific commodity market largely depends on the situation in other markets. Therefore, the study of the commodity market opportuncture should be comprehensive, linked to estimates of different types of market (securities, services, investments, real estate, labor, etc.), with the market of enterprise-substitutes market (if any), consuming, related and complementary industries. In particular, the securities market acts as one of the indicators of commodity markets.

The state of the commodity market is characterized by a system of quantitative and qualitative indicators that are formed and change under the influence of various factors. They should be considered as a driving force, which determines the nature of the situation, the direction and pace of its development, and at the same time as one of the conditions for this economic process in specific circumstances.

Factors as the cause and condition for the development of the conjuncture differ in their content, duration and nature of the impact. To assess the quantitative, and most importantly, their qualitative effects on the conjuncture are classified. At the same time, classification features are determined by the objectives of the study. Consider some of them.

By connection with the economic cycle of reproduction, all conjunction-forming factors are divided into two main groups:

cyclic (changing phase cycles, such as crisis, depression, revival, growth)
non-cyclic (specific manifestations of state regulation of the economy, scientific and technological progress, etc.)

The ratio of the significance of the effects of cyclic and non-cyclic factors on the conjuncture is dynamic. In some historical periods, the dominant role can be played by one, then another group of factors.

For the duration of exposure, the conjunct-forming factors are divided into:

long term (more than 8-10 years)
medium-urgent (2-8 years)
short-term (from several weeks to 2 years)

Long-term tendencies of the market development are characterized by averaged values. In essence, they are mental abstractions, but have tremendous practical importance, especially for forecasting the market situation.

Medium-term fluctuations in the conjuncture are caused primarily by cyclic factors.

Short-term fluctuations in the state of the market situation are determined by such factors as seasonality of production and consumption of individual goods, political and social conflicts, natural disasters, individual steps taken by the government, fashion, etc.

Seasonality is played a special role among short-term conjuncturing factors, under the influence of which there are intransifeous and constantly repetitive fluctuations in supply and demand. Thus, the seasonal nature of agricultural production is dramatically reflected on the dynamics of demand and prices for it (with opposite vectors of change).

Seasonal oscillations are characteristic of demand for tourist trips. In countries with temperate climates, the main ("high" seasons are summer (July-August) and winter (January-March).

In addition, the offseason (April, June, September) and the "Dead Season" (October-December) are allocated, when the flow of tourists fade and demand decreases to a minimum. The seasonal demand of demand may be associated with weather conditions, holidays, vacations.

The value of fashion, which has a significant impact on the market conditions, especially consumer goods. Fashion created by powerful advertising, gives things the feature of symbols of social status, life success. A large business is involved in the formation and change in fashion. From fashion high initial profits are extracted. Reducing profits during the period when the fashion becomes a massive, universal, leads to the fact that the trend towards changes in fashion gets a powerful impetus from the manufacturers.

In the theory and practice of the study of the conjuncture, the division of determining factors according to the degree of predictability is widely applied to:

predicted (predictable)
unpredictable (unpredictable, random)

If predictable factors (for example, the form of manifestation of the reproduction cycle, the methods of state regulation of the economy, seasonality, etc.) can be foreseen and take into account, then random in principle cannot be pre-assessing. They may be associated with completely unpredictable circumstances (the opening of new mineral deposits, exacerbation of international situation, political conflicts, natural disasters, etc.).

The main difficulty in assessing the situation in the market is not to determine the circle of conjuncturing factors.

The most important task of any study of the situation, on the success of the solution of which not only the depth of the coverage and the circumstance of the analysis, but also the accuracy and correctness of the forecast is to establish the importance of the impact of individual factors on the formation of a situation, and identifying leading factors that determine the factors in each individual and in the near future. It is possible to successfully solve this problem in the event that the market research is carried out comprehensively in its entirety of its factors and conditions of operation.

The conjuncture of the commodity market characterizes the following main indicators:

market scale (its capacity, sales, number of enterprises of various types operating in the market)
the degree of balance of the market (the ratio of supply and demand)
price level
market type (competitive, monopolistic, etc.)
market dynamics (change of its main parameters)
degree of business activity
strength and scope of competitive struggle (number of competitors, their activity)
the degree of state regulation of this market
barriers to enter the market
commercial conditions for the sale of goods

The conjunctural analysis is intended to comprehensively characterize the market situation and give a comprehensive assessment of the state of the market primarily from the position of marketing actions of the enterprise, i.e. Whether the conjuncture is favorable for the purpose of the goals.

Market environmental assessments are based on market indicators - indicators that allow independently or in combination with others to reflect the market situation. Market indicators, in particular, belong:

receipt of goods (delivery or alternative production volume)
sale (sales in value terms or natural units)
commodity reserves (in value terms or in the days of turn)
profit (or profitability)

Often the market indicators are not static indicators, but their growth rates (dynamic indices). Thus, on the basis of observation of the change in inventory, it is possible to make an indirect assessment of the proportionality of the market.

The fact is that the commercial reserves are sensitive to any changes in the ratio of supply and demand. Exceeding demand over the proposal causes a reduction in inventory, and the excess of supply of demand (or their qualitative inconsistency) is accompanied by increasing inventory (collaboration). The stability of inventories testifies to market balance.

The market situation may also reflect informal conjunctural assessments, which are the characteristics of buying mood and inflation expectations.

Consumer intent index

In a number of countries based on consumer panels, one of the most important conjunctural indicators of the market is determined - the consumer intention index is integral and consists of a number of private indices:

current personal financial situation

expected changes in personal material status

expected changes in the country's economy in the coming year

expected changes in the country's economy in the next five years

expediency of large shopping

feasibility savings

Each of the private indexes is independent and plays a role. Some indices describe the current situation, others - it is predicted, the third - directly reflect consumer intentions. The integral index of consumer intentions, calculated taking into account the use of private, can take values \u200b\u200bfrom 200 (maximum) to 0 (minimum). The values \u200b\u200bexceeding 100 indicate a positive assessment of the situation.

Attentive analysis of the consumer intention index, its oscillation assessment allows you to receive warning information about approximation of both negative and positive changes in the state of the market.

In the study of market conditions, it is necessary:

consider the relationship and interdependence of the economic phenomenon occurring in the market
eliminate the mechanical transfer of trends identified on some markets to others, even related markets, and the general economic situation - on all specific commodity markets
continuously monitoring (monitoring) for markets due to their dynamism
comply with a certain sequence of study: preparatory stage, current monitoring of the development of conditions, analysis of conjunctural information, development of a conjuncture forecast

At the preparatory stage, the object of study, the main indicators of the conjuncture, the circle of sources of the necessary information are determined.

Current monitoring of the development of the situation involves collecting, storing, checking, adjusting, systematization and primary processing of the obtained data on the state of the market being studied.

The purpose of the analysis of conjuncture information is the identification of patterns and trends in the development of the conjuncture of the market under study.

The conjunctural forecast gives an assessment of the market development prospects and is the basis for developing a strategy and tactics of the enterprise. The quality of the forecast is determined mainly how deeply the analysis and assessment of factors for the formation and development of the conjuncture are carried out.

Without an assessment of the position in the market, no enterprise will not be able to function correctly.

Analysis of the market situation is mainly carried out to determine the nature and degree of its balance, primarily defined as far as each other is the demand and suggestions.

Concept and structure

Translated from the Latin "CONNACTURE" is translated as "to connect, associate". In meaning, it means the situation at the moment the situation in some sphere of life.

With regard to the market is the situation that has developed at a certain period of time or throughout a certain period of time.

The conjuncture affects such factors that determine changes in prices and securities, the size of production, the employment of the population and much more. His structure:

the level of demand and proposal ratio as market balance;
the level of oscillations or stability of its main characteristics;
real, possible or transforming trends in the market;
movements of commodity stocks and prices;
orders portfolios by industry;
the degree of commercial risk at a specific point in time;
scale of competitive struggle;
the state of the market at a specific point of a certain temporary cycle.

Objectives of study

Consider the appointment of market opportunities to study. The essence of the mechanism is detected in the desire of supply and suggestions to the balance sheet.

The main goal of studying market conditions is to determine which ratio is in demand and supply. The processes on the market have an unpredictable, situational character, it is formed under the multitude of very contradictory factors, which cause constant deviations from the basic development trend.

The study of conjuncture in terms of possible trends in the disprecage of supply and supply predicts changes in the market.

In general, all status markers have an informational and warning form. They are designed for entrepreneurs and governing bodies. Estimates can be diametrically different - from "Calm" to "Storm".

Also, the main objective of the study of the conjuncture is to determine which extent of industry and trade affect the state of the market and its development in the future.

What measures are needed to fully meet the demand for certain goods and how to optimally use the possibilities available from the enterprise. The results of the study are used to make effective solutions for the management of the enterprise and the sale of available and developed goods.

The market research must be comprehensive, using various sources of information that can add each other, thereby forming a holistic picture.

For example, forecast indicators and retrospective analysis. Only thus an objective assessment of the market situation is formed.

The volume of tasks when studying the market situation:

It is necessary to establish all competitors, identify the range of their products, understand the policy of its pricing, determine which segment of consumers will be interested in the products of your company and much more. All information should be accurate and fresh.
Further, all these indicators must be systematized.
Determine the scale and dynamics of the above factors, to what extent they are interrelated and interdepended. This will determine the direction of the company's actions.
In mandatory, determine how these factors will be active in the near future, and develop a forecast.

Evaluation of the market situation is consisted of learning the following areas:

conjuncture General (analysis of the external environment of the enterprise);
conjuncture on a specific product;
commodity market conditions for segments: consumer, production, state, export;
demand;
sentence;
development trends / suggestions for a certain type of product;
growing and satisfying the needs for this type of product.

Studying the consumer sector

The consumer sector is most complicated for studying and further forecasting. A large number of different factors interact here: socio-economic, demographic, scientific and technical, climatic, national, psychological and many others.

Of course, the total queries depends on the purchasing power of citizens. It in turn is determined by the level of income, crediting conditions by banks, accumulated monetary volumes, the relationship between expenses for the purchase of certain material goods.

Ultimately, the amount of solvent demand directly depends on the amount of funds, which the population sends to the purchase of services or goods.

The capacity of the market of a certain product, that is, the amount of goods acquired for a particular time interval is established as the volume of production and the number of goods and the balance of imports and exports.

If the demand for goods is not fully satisfied, then the effect of unsatisfied demand for solvent, which in vivo is only at the stage of the appearance of a new product.

The capacity of the market is also determined by the information on the realized demand for a certain product or the volume of its retail turnover. When analyzing this kind, it must be remembered that price indicators depend on the surcharges on goods (retail and wholesale).

Volumes of consumption of goods by sectors

The scale of production consumption in the commodity market is established by the number of purchases of consumers. Among the main factors can be distinguished by intra-economic, industry and general economic.
The scale of state consumption in the commodity market is established by a tender for the goods. The main factor in this sector is the needs of the state in a certain service or product. And, of course, the amount of funds allocated to it.
The scale of exports in the commodity market, as a rule, reduces the market capacity. Export volumes are registered by customs authorities and are published in statistical collections. Among the main factors are the following:
- the degree of competitiveness of goods in various markets in the world;
- foreign economic policy of exporting states (importers);
- export state opportunities.

Analysis of the conjuncture in the commodity market should be completed by the study of the possibility of growth and meeting the needs of consumers. Here, their changes are analyzed, as they expressed, as satisfied, which happened when a new similar product appeared, why demand was reduced or disappeared.

Additionally, it is necessary to explore the possibility of a proposal of a similar product-substitute, possibly not yet appeared on the market. The whole process ultimately is qualitative and should be carried out by specialists: sociologists, marketers and commodities.

Study and marketing analysis of market conditions (market conditions)

Methodical foundations of market research

The conjuncture was the economic situation in the market, which characterizes: the relationship between supply and demand, price level, orders portfolio, consumer requirements and other economic indicators. The main among them is the relationship between supply and demand and the price of products related to this ratio.

The market research includes: analysis and forecast of market conditions and analysis of commercial activities.

The general scheme of the forecast of market conditions is presented in Fig. one.

Fig. one.

The study of the market situation consists of two main blocks: the study of the general conjuncture and the study of the conjuncture of a particular commodity market

Directly the process of research consists of the following consecutive stages:

- Collection of information and analysis of market conditions;
- development of its own forecast of conjuncture for the nearest planned period;
- Evaluation of the efficiency of using the results of a conjuncture forecast.

The study of the general conjuncture involves tracking and detailed consideration of the processes, changes occurring in the national economy of a separate country, the economic community or world economy as a whole, and provides for an analysis of the main macroeconomic proportions and trends, the entire combination of industries presented in the framework of the selected research facility.

The study of the commodity market opportuncture includes the analysis and forecast of the state of the market of a particular product and involves the study of industries of production and consumption of products under consideration, their relationships, as well as infrastructure support for the market being studied.

Analysis of the general conjuncture or conjuncture of a particular commodity market can be carried out in two ways, depending on the objectives of the study:

- if the task is to find out the trends and the pace of development of the conjuncture for a period, then the analysis of the situation is carried out by studying its dynamics during this period;
- If the task is set to determine the conjuncture on the current date, then an analysis of the state of the conjuncture is carried out by determining the phase of the economic cycle and the approximate place within the phase.

The high efficiency of working on the study of the conjuncture, problems and long-term trends in the market development is possible only under the observance of the principles of focus, complexity, systematic.

Focusing means that the study of market conditions and its development trends should be closely linked to the planned tasks facing the enterprise.

An integrated approach means:

- first, the need to analyze all major elements of a particular market;
- Secondly, the obligation of its study in relationship with general economic phenomena and product markets;
- Third, the coverage of the entire main group of internal factors (with respect to the given market) of the nature of the nature.

Systemativity of observations and analysis involves the ratio of certain requirements for research. Only with this condition it is possible to timely reflect the changes occurring in the market and their accounting in practical activities.

When the initial data accumulates, it is necessary to clarify the positions before proceeding with the collection of material and identify the development of the conjuncture and demand of consumers.

It is necessary to determine the period of time (quarter, half of the year, year), for which the conjuncture and consumer requests will be analyzed. It depends not only to the list of indicators, but also the degree of data detail on them.

It is also necessary to determine the level of specific analysis and forecast, which is planned to be carried out. Based on such preliminary work, the volume and nature of the necessary materials are specified.

Analysis of the conjuncture should be carried out on the basis of materials reflecting the entire set of often contradictory processes, trends and phenomena, and not on the basis of arbitraryly selected factors confirming one or another point of view.

Only with a comprehensive approach to analysis can be properly evaluated to the state and the main trends in the development of the conjuncture. The latter is formed in the conditions of mutual influence of forces, often oppositely directed, and is the result of the manifestation of all conjuncturing factors.

Getting Started by the study of the market for the market of goods, it should first of all identify the activity of certain factors, for which it is necessary to establish the moment in which the market is located. To this end, the monographic method is used, i.e. Published in statistical and periodic publications Economic and statistical indicators of the character and characteristics of this particular period and forecasts of its development.

Checks for the correctness of the study of the conjuncture allow you to promptly open the shortcomings in the work of the marketing service and take operational measures to eliminate them. The ultimate objective of the study of the situation is the creation of a picture of the likely future: determining the possibilities that should be used, potential hazards to avoid.

For a short-term conjunctural forecast, it is necessary to take into account all factors - from temporary and random to cyclical and non-cyclic. At the same time, the focus is on the three most important elements of the market mechanism: demand, suggestion and price, which allows to analyze the market of goods comprehensively.

Analysis of the study of the conjuncture involves, first of all, an assessment of the timeliness of the implementation of certain marketing activities and compare prices for concluded contracts with the level of prices for the products under consideration, which established on leading stock exchanges (if stock exchange) or large manufacturers and suppliers for the period under review, with other things being equal Conditions. At the conclusion of foreign trade transactions, efficiency is determined by the value of currency revenue in exporting or by the amount of currency payments during imports.

To explore (analysis and forecast), a wide range of indicators is used:

- production indicators (industrial, agricultural);
- Indicators of internal turnover;
- indicators of foreign trade;
- price level indicators;
- Financial figures.

Analysis of demand

The main task of a comprehensive study of the market, which makes it possible to determine its general characteristics, the analysis and assessment of products planned to the production of products from the point of view of the parameters of their demand. This is one of the most important and responsible stages of market analysis. Insufficient or inactive analysis of demand can lead, on the one hand, to create unnecessary capacities and their irrational use, on the other, to the creation of the power of the enterprise, insufficient to meet the needs of the market or not allowing optimizing the scale of production.

In the marketing theory, the demand for goods or service is defined as a solvent need, therefore not any need is the demand. It is very clear that this definition of demand illustrates the situation in the national economy of Russia in terms of the crisis of payments. Product production in many industries is not reduced because there is no need for these goods, but because they have no demand: consumers can not pay the products they need.

Determining the demand and size of the market includes an assessment of the magnitude and structure of current valid demand and a promising assessment of the market demand. Current demand can be represented as a total number of specific products purchased at a certain price on a specific market for a specific period. The first step in determining the current actual demand is to determine it for the year preceding the year of research, or, if this data is not enough, then for several previous years.

It should be borne in mind that consumers are reluctant to share information on the structure of demand, preferences and flexibility of the market. Therefore, the lack of statistical information on the influence of various factors on the amount of demand must be compensated by expert assessments of the demand and its changes under the influence of economic phenomena.

Since market demand has a multifunctional nature, then it is necessary to predict it, according to the results of the market analysis, allocate key factors that determine its dynamics. Then you need to assess the degree of their impact on the demand and make a forecast of the evolution of factors in the future. After performing these procedures, the formation forecast is based on a method.

It is necessary to clearly imagine what needs satisfies the product on a specific market, in which areas and how will the buyer will be used. The most common methods for determining the prospective need are the regulatory, statistical extrapolation and method of expert assessments. It is advisable to combine these methods, which will reduce the error in comparison with the use of each method separately.

The regulatory method is the most appropriate for industries, where the range of types of materials and components used is relatively small and calculated in the natural indicators. To determine the promising need for the regulatory method, the formula is used:

i - consumer industry;

l is the type of material (component generation);

j - type of product;

Standing for the consumption of the L-th type of material (component) J-M product;

The volume of the product of the j-th view that consumes the L-type of the material (component generation);

Losses of the L-th type of material (component generation) used in the product of the J th view.

In general, the standard of demand in the T-OM year with this method of calculation can be represented as follows:

BB, A1, A2, A3, ..., Ан, where:

Explosives - the need for the demand for the Basis Year;

A1, A2, A3, ..., An - coefficients that take into account the influence of various factors on the consumption standard in the T-OM year.

Together with the consumer, the market researcher must critically evaluate the data provided, taking into account the possible appearance of competing materials, the availability of equipment for processing materials into products, information about the planned change in standards and other factors and make appropriate adjustments to the amounts of claims.

In consumer industries, where a certain tendency of mass use of materials has already been established (and in large volumes and diverse assortment), the statistic-extrapolation method is most convenient. The period during which the extrapolation of the need is possible is within 10-15 years. Practice shows that the expected prediction error does not exceed 15%, which is quite acceptable for prognostic calculation.

The increase in need is consistent from the gain of the initial need and replacement increase. Further, the intragroup structure of the need (according to certain types, brands) is calculated, based on the total amount of data based on the data stages. The calculation is made in such a sequence:

- determines the proportion of certain types of goods in the total sales volume and the share of individual brands in the amount of sales of goods of this species;
- the structure of a possible amount of full sale by type and brand is calculated as the ratio of the possible amount of sale of this type of product to the total volume of possible sale; According to brand - the absolute amount of possible full-selling on this brand is divided into the amount of possible full sale by type, which includes this brand;
- The structure of the expected sale is determined. In addition to the regulatory method used in predicting the capacity of the market, extrapolation methods can be used. The most accurate extrapolation methods include models of temporary rows of Jenkins-boxing.

Analysis of consumer demand requires the study of the most important demographic factors affecting the state of demand and its dynamics, namely: the population of the country or segment, the birth rate, the age composition of the population, the geographical distribution of the population.

When analyzing the purchasing power of the population, it turns out:

- level of income of the population;
- the volume and conditions for the provision of consumer loan; - the sum of savings of the population;

The demand analysis should be carried out on the basis of the use of the indicator system (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2.

The volume of consumption is calculated for the current period. Based on the determination of the rate of its growth in the past, an assessment of the volume of consumption on the perspective is given. Evaluation of visible consumption is defined as production plus import minus export.

The assessment of the purchasing power of the population is calculated by analyzing a number of indicators: price level, wage level, savings level, etc. In addition, purchasing power is determined by the consumption of the types of products for per capita:

Consumption of the i-th product per capita;

VI - the total consumption of the i-th product for the period under review;

H - the number of the study group;

- the demand for all types of comparable products and interchangeable goods;
- the total amount of income of the population by region;
-- salary fund;
- Life value index:

IPZP - a real wage index;

INPP - nominal wage index;

IIC - price index for goods and services.

Iphopotr. - index of physical consumption;

g1.0 - the volume of consumption in the reporting, base period;

p0 - price in the base period;

Tax Level:

UN is the level of taxation,

SPL - the amount of taxes;

DN - taxable base,

L - benefits;

The cost of rent and household services.

For all the above components, development trends are determined.

Analysis of consumer preferences allows you to determine the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the demand, identify the main trends of its development.

Analysis of the sentence

An important component of the market research process is a proposal analysis. Marketing specialists argue that the success of marketing as a whole depends on the success of proposals. A good business can be done with the most ordinary product that is well perceived by the consumer.

The change in the proposal is the basis for the implementation of the most important principle of marketing. The essence of this principle is that the firm must produce such types of products that would make the most character and specificity of the demand of the consumer.

To assess the offer, a number of indicators are used (Fig. 3).

Fig. 3.

When analyzing the proposal of a specific product, the study of the state and trends in the development of the relevant global commodity market is important. Firms are continuously research on identifying NTP prospects, much attention is paid to the expected discoveries that may entail indigenous changes in the field of production and sales in the world commodity market and in the field of international trade turnover in the chain.

Analysis of the goods offers involves the systematization of the search. Sometimes the researcher lacks knowledge in order to objectively assess the offer of goods. In this case, the following sources of information can come to the rescue: a trusting conversation with competent employees; Analytical review of special books and magazines; study of advertising competitors; Careful viewing catalogs, prospectuses, ads and other materials close to this industry; study of brochures published by patent services; view the daily economic press; Analysis of old publications; visiting fairs and exhibitions; View special television programs; conversations with customers and suppliers; discussions with heads of departments; study and analysis of the proposals of employees of the enterprise; study of published market research reports; visiting conferences, competitions and competitions; Conversations with consultants.

In addition to this method of processing secondary information, there are other research methods. One of them is a functional analysis. However, it is necessary to keep in mind a completely specific product that can be functionally described. At the same time, it is necessary first of all to explore all its properties. Then, it should be determined which new functions it can perform or what functions that are already on the product market, it performs better. If the new product has explicit advantages in performing certain functions or surpasses competing products in all functions, you can count on success.

Market price analysis

To select the price strategy, the company must identify and analyze all the factors that can affect prices. To a greater extent, these reasons external to the firm and are not controlled by it. The following main factors affect the final prices:

consumers;

state regulation;

participants in the channel channels;

competitors;

costs.

1. Cossacks of goods have a considerable impact on the adoption of the company's company at prices. The interdependence between the prices and the number of purchases made for topics can be explained by two reasons. The first consists in the action of the law of supply and demand and price elasticity, the second is in an unequal reaction of buyers of various market segments for the price.
2. Another important factor in the external environment is the government in other words, state regulation of prices. Here, the impact is carried out in several main directions.

The government legislatively limits the pricing attempts about prices and establish fixed prices between product producers and between wholesale and retail. Regardless of how important these fixed prices are based, they are recognized as illegal: entrepreneurs who have established them, are strictly punished, and there are huge fines on the company. Such violations were called horizontal price fixing. In order to avoid suspicion of such violations of the law, entrepreneurs must avoid the following actions: consult or share information with competitors on prices, discounts, implementation conditions and loan; subjected to condemnation prices, allowance and costs of any firms on professional sectoral meetings; Contact competitors about temporary reduction in production in order to maintain high prices. The exception is an agreement on prices taken under the supervision of the authority authorized by the state.

Another impairment pursued by law is vertical fixation of prices. It lies in the fact that manufacturers or wholesale require sales of their goods at specific prices, thus controlling retail prices.

The state prohibits the law of price discrimination, if it brings to the detriment of competition. Thus, manufacturers and wholesalers are obliged to offer their goods to various customers - participants in sales channels on the same conditions. Price discrimination is permissible only in relation to products of different quality. However, in this case, the manufacturer will require evidence that qualitative differences are considered strictly taken into account.

In addition, the law is prosecuted by predatory pricing. The state takes measures to protect small shops from dishonest price competition from their larger colleagues. It is forbidden to sell products at prices below cost in order to attract buyers and eliminate competitors. Wholesale and retail merchants must sell products at prices, including costs plus a fixed percentage, covering overhead and profits. This applies to such goods like bread, dairy products, alcoholic beverages.

3. The following factor affecting the price decision is parties to channel channels. All participants in sales channels are from the manufacturer to wholesale and retail trade - all available ways seek to increase sales and profits and establish more complete cost control.

The manufacturer affects the price of the goods using the monopoly broadcast system, reducing the sale of goods through stores selling at discounted prices. The manufacturer opens its own retail stores in which it controls prices.

4. An important element affecting the price level is competition. From the marketing position, the medium is analyzed in which the company operates. Depending on who controls prices, there are three types of competitive media (Fig. 4).

Fig. four.

The price in which the prices in which are controlled by the firm are inherent in limited competition, differences in products and services. Under these conditions, firms are easier to function, getting high profits, since their products are out of competition. And at high, and at low prices for their products of the company find buyers on the market, the choice of prices depends only on the strategy and the target market.

Wednesday, where prices are controlled by the government, it applies to transport, communication, utilities, a number of food products. Government organizations authorized to control prices establish price level after a comprehensive study of information from all parties interested in this product - consumers and manufacturers.

5. At the final price of goods, the costs associated with the acquisition of raw materials, labor, individual components of the goods, transportation, environmental protection have a great influence.

Getting Started by the issue of the price of the goods, the manufacturer must collect complete information. Do not identify information and data. Decisions at the prices of the company can only be fully studied by the information. Data serve only by the source material, analyzing which, you can get benign information. Without such an analysis, the company will simply have a set of facts and numbers that will only make it difficult to make the right decision at prices. The data should be collected being firmly confident in the fact that they will serve as a potential source of information. Therefore, the company's management should determine:

in which directions to collect data;

what questions require information;

what latitude information will be required for each question.

As a rule, companies collect information in the following main areas: the market of goods (type of competition); industry in which the company operates; competing industries; Government activities.

The most important issues on which companies need information are: competitors and competing goods; production and cost; the ratio between the revenue from the sale of goods and profit; Government policy.

Firms, collecting and processing information at prices, seek:

explore the market on which they sell their products;

find out all the potential capabilities of the product produced;

explore your and competing industries in order to identify these and potential competitors;

take into account all the decisions of the government.

Conjuncura market. Research and analysis of market conditions

Conjuncura Market is an economic situation in the market and characterized by demand and supply levels, market activity, prices, sales volumes, interest rates, exchange rate, salary, dividends, and dynamics of production and consumption.

The conjunctural market depends on the actions of the factors, the main of which are: Consumer money incomes, prices for goods, the ratio of supply and supply of securities, their yield.

Market situation Determines the commercial value and competitiveness of goods, the possibility and economic feasibility of buying and selling, the choice of potential and actual exporting countries (importers) and counterparty firms, and search for a favorable moment of entering the market, forms and methods of this exit.

The change in the market situation is determined primarily by the nature and level of economic development, but they are influenced by such factors as the seasonal nature of the production and consumption of a number of goods. All factors affecting the market conjuncture are classified for permanent and temporary (on the frequency of their impact), which stimulate the development of the market or deterrent.

The market situation is studied with the help of indicators that allow you to quantify the changes occurring on it and determine the trends of their development. Such indicators are usually systematized by the following groups:

production Dynamics, Basic Production Firms, Appearance of New Products, Loading Production Power, Dynamics of Investments in this industry, Movement of the order portfolio, Dynamics of production costs, the number of employed and unemployed, the impact of strikes on the volume of products and an increase in the wage Fund, the movement of the Securities Course etc.;

dynamics and structure of supply and demand, the impact of the achievements of scientific and technological progress on the level of consumption and requirements for the quality of goods, the dynamics of the wholesale and retail trade, the market capacity (the volume of goods sold on it for a certain time), the size of sales in, movement of inventories, assortment of goods, cost indices, etc.;

state of international trade, its dynamics, main countries - exporters and importers, new forms and methods of trade and after-sales service, etc.;

dynamics of wholesale prices in leading countries - manufacturers and consumers of this product, export prices; Impact on inflation prices, dynamics of price changes for raw materials and energy, changes in currency exchange rate, impact of monopolies on price level, government pricing and so on.

The objectives of the conjuncture:

integration and differentiation of the market, the typology of the market situation and the gradation of the state of the market;
scale characteristic (type) market;
evaluation and analysis of the basic proportions of development;
identification, analysis and prediction of development trends and stability of market processes;
evaluation of cyclicity and seasonality of development;
evaluation of rational differences;
evaluation of business activity;
analysis of the monopolization of the market and the level of competition.

Research Market Conducting

The conjuncture is a set of signs and indicators that characterize the current state of the economy.

The study of the market opportuncture involves an analysis of the situation in the market and its forecasting. The final result of such a study is to receive answers to the following questions: at what point and at what prices should be sold or buying goods.

To study the market opportuncture and preparation of forecasts of its development, it is necessary to figure out the country's economy in which phase of its cycle. Then give a comprehensive characteristic of the economy for the previous year, to identify and analyze all the factors affecting the market conditions and make a reasonable conjunctural forecast.

Allocate strategic and operational objectives of conjuncture analysis and market forecasting.

The strategic objectives of the conjunctural analysis require identifying and modeling the patterns of the market mechanism. This allows you to predict the development of the market and justify the application of economic regulatory mechanisms.

The operational objectives of the conjunctural analysis of the current situation are focused on meeting the needs of marketing and management.

To implement strategic and operational purposes, the main objectives of the conjuncture analysis are:

1) market status assessment;

2) the characteristic of the scale (container) of the market;

3) assessment and analysis of the main proportions (fractions) of the market;

4) analysis and prediction of market development trends;

5) analysis of seasonality and cyclicity of market development;

6) assessment of regional features and differences;

7) analysis of business activity;

8) assessment of commercial (market) risk;

9) Characteristics of the degree of market monopolization and competition intensity.

The solution of these objectives of the market analysis of the market seems difficult and requires serious studies under which systemic and complex approaches are used.

A systematic approach to a conjuncture study involves a multi-level (hierarchical) object description.

As a rule, the study of the object is carried out at least three levels:

The first level involves the study of the facility (market of the country) as a whole, as well as characterizing its generalized indicators;

The second level involves the study of the structure of the object (individual commodity market) and characterizing its indicators, as well as the systems of links between individual elements of the object;

The third level of the object's conjuncture research involves a description of the state of individual elements of the commodity market.

An integrated approach to the study of economic situation involves consideration of the object of study on the basis of a comprehensive analysis of the interaction of factors of the internal and external environment. Thus, in the study of the commodity market conjuncture, this means that the object should be studied in cooperation with the general situation, with the conjuncture of consuming industries, as well as with the conjuncture of related and complementary industries.

The study of the economic situation is not only determining its current state, but also forecasting directions and trends in market development. It is necessary to organize organizations to develop solutions in the sale of goods and services, as well as for planning scientific and technical and industrial activities.

The study of the market conditions involves:

Analysis of pricing and sales;

Determination of market potential and market share;

Development of short-term and long-term forecast.

A conjunctural study is a focused collection and processing of information on the state of the commodity market, the analysis of the features of its functioning, predicting the main parameters and trends of the market for the adoption of effective marketing solutions. This study is the basis for making an effective management decision in any type of economic activity of the organization. Specific goals and objectives in the field of production and sales of products in the domestic and foreign markets should dictate the direction, the scale and depth of the conjuncture studies.

The purpose of the conjunctural study can be: determining the capacity of the market, dynamics and level of price of goods, sales of goods, exports or imports and so on.

The objects of the conjuncture research are:

General factory conjuncture. The study of this situation implies a detailed consideration of macroeconomic processes and trends in the national economy of a separate country or world economy as a whole;

Commodity market conditions. This study includes the analysis and forecast of the state of the market of a particular product and involves the study of industries and consumption of the products under consideration, their relationships, as well as the infrastructure support of the market being studied.

Analysis of the general conjuncture or conjuncture of a particular commodity market, depending on the objectives of the study, can be carried out in two ways:

If the task is to find out the trends in the development of the market conditions for a period, then the analysis is carried out by studying its dynamics during this period;

If the task is set to determine the market conjuncture to the current date, then the analysis is carried out taking into account the phase of the economic cycle in this period.

The peculiarity of the market research is that the researcher always deals only with specific indicators (figures), characterizing the state of the object of the study. Analysis of these indicators must give answers to the questions. Therefore, before proceeding with the process of research, you should draw up a list of questions and indicators necessary to properly assess the object.

Analysis of market conditions analysis

The market as a complex socio-economic category can be characterized by numerous indicators depending on the purpose of the study.

Analysis of market conditions allows:

Determine the parameters of the market, identify the position of the enterprise on it;

Identify competitors in the industry and assess the level of competition;

Examine the need and demand of consumers to the goods (service);

Explore the goods, its place in the market and the degree of satisfaction of them the needs of buyers;

Predict (simulate) product prospects;

Determine areas of activity in order to meet the changing needs of buyers.

Analysis of the market situation - the basis for the development of tactics and strategy of the enterprise (both in the present and in the future), the forecast of market conditions and the state of competition - the most important elements of the analysis.

The forecast of the market conjuncture is possible options for changes in the structure and volume of consumption, which are compared with the estimates of the development of the production of goods, which makes it possible to obtain forecasts for sales, demand, suggestions and relations between them.

In the preparation of the market prediction as part of the general marketing forecast uses information from a variety of analytical (medium, consumer, goods, enterprises).

The main goal of studying the market opportuncture is to establish to what extent industry and trade affects the state of the market, on its development in the near future and what measures should be taken to fully meet the demand of the public on goods, more rationally use the opportunities available at the manufacturing enterprise. The results of the study of the conjuncture are designed to take operational solutions to manage the production and sale of goods.

A comprehensive approach to the study of the market situation involves the use of various, complementary sources of information; The combination of retrospective analysis with the forecast of indicators characterizing market conditions; The use of a combination of various methods of analysis and forecasting.

The study of the market situation is based on analyzing indicators characterizing the production and supply of goods of this group, the volume and structure of the retail, inventory in the warehouses of the enterprise, in the wholesale and retail trade.

When studying the market situation, a task is raised not only to determine the state of the market at a point or another, but also the predictions of the likely nature of its further development at least one or two quarters, but not more than one and a half years. The results of the analysis of the projected indicators of the market situation in combination with the reporting and planned data make it possible to develop measures in advance aimed at developing positive processes, eliminating and preventing possible imbalances.

In terms of its nature, the forecast of the indicators of the situation is a short-term forecast. Its specifics is that the accuracy of short-term forecasts increases compared with annual, reduces this accuracy.

Tasks when studying market conditions

At a certain period of time, select the specific and latest information from the sources of information from the sources of information, namely to identify all competitors, learn the range of products, learn the pricing policy, to determine the circle of persons for which your company will produce products and other indicators.

Systematize these indicators.

Establish the strength and scope of the effects of the corresponding conjuncturo-forming factors, their relationship and interdependence and the direction of action.

To identify the activity of the interaction of these factors in the near future to develop a forecast.

Analysis of the market situation includes the study of two interrelated blocks -

general conjuncture I.

market conjunctures of a particular product.

For analyzing market conditions, research is carried out:

General conjuncture in the country, region;

Commodity market conjunctures;

Suggestions;

Trends in demand development and suggestions for this product (service);

Development and meeting needs (service).

To analyze the general situation, use the results of the study of the external environment of the enterprise.

Among the most important indicators of the general recognition, we call the following:

The volume and dynamics of gross national product, national income, production in the sectors of the national economy;

Investment size;

The magnitude of the average and real wages;

The number of employees in the national economy and in the industries;

Indicators of the state of the domestic market (inventory, volume and structure of retail turnover, etc.);

Dynamics of wholesale and retail prices, inflation indices;

Standards of living;

Dynamics of foreign economic activity;

Stock market indices;

Unemployment rate.

Analysis of the commodity market situation begins with the study of demand in the commodity market, which is carried out in separate market segments:

Consumer sector (population);

Production consumption;

Government consumption;

Export.

The most difficult for analyzing and forecasting is the consumer sector due to the interaction of a large number of factors: demographic, socio-economic, climatic, scientific and technical, psychological, national, etc.

The amount of demand depends on the purchasing power of the population, which is determined by the level of real income, the conditions for obtaining loans, the amount of savings, the relationship between the costs of purchasing goods and services. The amount of funds sent to the purchase of goods is the amount of solvent demand.

Specific goods, i.e. The volume of consumed (acquired) for a certain period of time of the goods is defined as the volume of production, taking into account changes in the stocks of goods and export and import balance. When the demand for goods is not fully satisfied completely, the phenomenon of unsatisfied solvent demand occurs, which is not characteristic of a market economy or manifests itself in the initial stages of the appearance in the new product market.

The market capacity can also be determined using data on the realized demand or the volume of retail turnover of this product. When conducting an analysis, it is necessary to remember that the cost indicators include wholesale and retail marks for goods. In connection with this, the cost analysis is recommended to complement demand analysis in natural indicators (pieces, kilograms, liters), taking into account the structure of retail and wholesale prices, as well as their changes.

The volume of production consumption of the commodity market is determined by the magnitude of the procurement of consumers. Among the factors can be noted general economic, industry, intra-economic.

The volume of state consumption is determined by the public order for the goods. The main factors for the development of this market sector are the needs of the state in this product and its financial capabilities.

The volume of exports of goods reduces market capacity. Export values \u200b\u200bare registered by state customs services, and data on them are published in statistical compilations.

Among the factors affecting exports should be noted as follows:

Competitiveness of goods in the global market;

Foreign economic policy of countries exporters and importers;

Export opportunities exporting country.

The proposal analysis provides for:

Quantitative assessment of the supply in value and natural indicators; determination of the structure of the sentence from the point of view of assortment varieties of goods at prices, types, models, quality, design, novelty, etc.;

Calculation of the share of individual suppliers (manufacturers and sellers) in the market of goods, including the share of imports in the total supply;

Detection of global trends in the development of this market and the possible consequences of such trends for the country market.

An analysis of the development trends in demand and suggestions on the market under study serves as a logical continuation of the preceding stage of analysis. At this stage, the main task is to identify the trends in the dynamics of cost and natural meters of supply and suggestions, identify quantitative and qualitative factors affecting voluminous and structural changes in supply and demand, compare the identified trends in the country's market with trends in other regions and other countries; Determine the stage of the life cycle on which the goods are located. The results of this analysis are a reflection of the process of satisfying the need to express goods buyers.

The study of the commodity market conjuncture is completed by an analysis of the development and satisfaction of needs, during which the development of the need, expressed and satisfied with the goods, the emergence of its new types, or, on the contrary, a decrease in the need or its disappearance is monitored. In addition, the possibility of satisfying the need with the help of another product - the substitute is probably not yet presented in the market.

The tasks of the needs of the needs are qualitative and are solved mainly by consumer surveys and specialists - marketers, merchandising, sociologists. The results of the analysis of the market for the market of goods, together with the forecast of the general conjuncture, are the basis for developing a conjuncture forecast.

Anton Gagen, Tatyana Nikolaevna PapamoOVA, Doctor of Economics

Especially for the information agency "Financial lawyer"

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