The technological structure is. Technological structures: concept, characteristics, impact on economic growth. The concept of the structure of the economy

E. Kablov, acad. Photo by Alexander Krivushin. Conversation by B. Rudenko

The task set by the President of Russia - to create a "smart" economy - determines the need for advanced development of science and the dynamic implementation of its achievements. Since this task covers many aspects of our life, a special integrating indicator is required to assess the success of its implementation. The concept of "technological order" is increasingly claiming its role today. Correspondent of the journal "Science and Life" Boris Rudenko talked about this with the Director General of the Institute of Aviation Materials (FSUE "VIAM" SSC RF), Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Yevgeny KABLOV.

Academician E. N. Kablov.

Installation for the production of unique high-temperature alloys (the final product is shown in the photo on the right) for the fifth generation aircraft engines.

Ensuring the entry into the sixth technological order is due to those who from yesterday's young specialists will tomorrow become the elite of Russian science.

Science and Life // Illustrations

New generation materials should only be tested on the most advanced equipment. Photo: laboratory research on a tensile testing machine.

The state is turning its face to science - says academician E. N. Kablov. This attention must continue in the future.

The world economy has not yet fully recovered from the effects of the crisis. Why did the topic of "technological order" arise right now?

The world owes the emergence of this concept to our compatriot, economist Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratyev. He held a responsible post in the Provisional Government of Kerensky, and then headed the famous Moscow Institute of Conjuncture. Studying the history of capitalism, Kondratyev came to the idea of \u200b\u200bthe existence of large - with a length of 50-55 years - economic cycles, which are characterized by a certain level of development of productive forces ("technological order"). As a rule, such cycles end in crises similar to the present one, followed by the stage of transition of productive forces to a higher level of development.

Today the world is on the verge of the sixth technological order. Its contours are just beginning to take shape in the developed countries of the world, primarily in the USA, Japan and China, and are characterized by a focus on the development and application of science-intensive, or, as they say now, "high technologies". Everyone is now hearing about bio- and nanotechnology, genetic engineering, membrane and quantum technologies, photonics, micromechanics, thermonuclear energy - the synthesis of advances in these areas should lead to the creation, for example, of a quantum computer, artificial intelligence and ultimately provide access to a fundamentally a new level in the systems of government, society, economy.

Forecast experts believe that while maintaining the current rates of technical and economic development, the sixth technological order will begin to take shape in 2010-2020, and will enter the maturity phase in the 2040s. At the same time, in 2020-2025 a new scientific, technical and technological revolution will take place, the basis of which will be developments synthesizing the achievements of the above-mentioned basic directions. There are grounds for such predictions. In the United States, for example, the share of the productive forces of the fifth technological order is 60%, the fourth - 20%. And about 5% already falls on the sixth technological order.

- How are things going in Russia?

It's too early for us to talk about the sixth technological order. The share of technologies of the fifth order is still about 10% in our country, and even then only in the most developed industries: in the military-industrial complex and in the aerospace industry. More than 50% of technologies belong to the fourth level, and almost a third - even to the third. Hence, the complexity of the task facing Russian science and technology is clear: in order for our country to become one of the states with the sixth technological order within the next 10 years, it needs, figuratively speaking, to jump over the stage - through the fifth order.

- How practical is it?

With the prevailing forms and methods of management, organization and financing of work, such a breakthrough will not be possible. We need fundamental changes in these areas. And they are possible only if science has the status of an independent branch of the economy with all the ensuing consequences. The leading countries of the world have already come to this. Most of them have a strong scientific background, an active system of innovations that allows creating and constantly maintaining this reserve at a high level, quickly turning it into practical results.

Our possibilities in this matter do not look so optimistic. As practice has shown, ministries and departments, primarily the Ministry of Education and Science, the Ministry of Economic Development and the Ministry of Industry and Trade, are unable to provide the country with dynamic innovative development. Even worse, some of their employees continue to impose questionable solutions on us.

- Could you give examples of such decisions?

Referring to foreign experience, the opinion is stubbornly implanted that the "center of gravity" of the development of science should move to the walls of universities. Is it possible? Not to mention the fact that the main task of universities is to train specialists, it is difficult to imagine an educational institution capable of maintaining and effectively operating powerful experimental research stands and technological complexes.

Equally erroneous is the opinion that innovative development can only be ensured by scientific organizations that are owned or financed by private corporations, the main interests and goals of which, as is known, in many cases do not coincide with the goals and interests of the state.

Large non-state corporations certainly participate in the creation of new knowledge. But this process is strictly limited by their desire to ensure the competitiveness of their products. Moreover, corporations are very reluctant to take risks when funding scientific research. And in the presence of a monopoly position in the market, sometimes they even freeze the process of acquiring new knowledge.

- What can be the way out of this situation?

I believe that in our situation the innovation process must be made mandatory for everyone, and first of all for large corporations. For this, in particular, it is worth returning to the practice of deducting 2% of profits to the Technological Development Fund. In this way, it is possible to create conditions for the transition of the economy to the sixth technological order. But one must not lose sight of the fact that there are a number of important tasks in the field of science and technology, the solution of which is the direct responsibility of the state. It is simply, by definition, part of his responsibility. This means that the state should have its own scientific institutions capable of ensuring the solution of these main national tasks of innovative development. And, of course, the "main driving force" in the implementation of the innovation strategy should be the public sector of science.

Many circumstances speak in favor of this proposal. And above all, more than 70% of the country's scientific and technological potential is in state ownership. Accordingly, the public sector of science is the main source of domestic innovation. Finally, only the public sector can act as a guarantor of the interests of the state aimed at ensuring security and solving the most important socio-economic problems.

Over the past twenty years, we have heard many times statements about the low efficiency of the public sector of the economy in comparison with the private sector. Admittedly, it is quite difficult to dispute these claims. Will the same shortcomings appear when the state organizes the scientific process?

The effectiveness of the public sector of science primarily depends on the existence of a systemic regulatory framework. Unfortunately, there is practically no such base in our country. Even the very notion of the "public sector of science" is not clearly formulated, which does not allow fully revealing its functional purpose as a system that ensures the implementation of state tasks.

Gaps in the regulatory framework impede the normal interaction of academic, industry and university science. Problems are laid, as they say, already at the start. I have spoken about this more than once, including on the pages of your magazine. In 2005, the section “Fundamental Research and Assistance to Scientific and Technological Progress” was eliminated in the structure of the federal budget. As a result, fundamental research today is funded under the section "National Issues". And applied - under the section "National Economy". Thus, there is a situation where the link between fundamental and applied research is broken already at the stage of creating financial plans.

To this it should be added that the Ministry of Education and Science, together with the Russian Academy of Sciences, is developing proposals only regarding the budget for fundamental research. The programmatic part of investments in science (concerning applied research on state programs) is formed by the Ministry of Economic Development, the non-programmatic part - by the Ministry of Finance, which in turn destroys the principle of a single technological chain.

It probably makes sense to go back to the old practice. And indicate in the budget expenditures on science as a single line "Science and innovation" with subsections "Fundamental research" and "Applied research and innovation." And of course, you need to be very careful about the selection of those who are assigned to do the job.

Look, over the past decades we have become a “state of intermediaries”. Numerous firms and firms by hook or by crook get into the chain on the way from producer to consumer with the sole purpose of biting off their piece of the financial pie. The mold of mediation has permeated even science. Organizations appeared in it that, having neither the personnel nor the necessary equipment, manage to receive orders (and money!) For research and development. And only part of this money is spent on attracting scientists and specialists from real research institutes, the results of whose work the intermediary firm passes off as its own.

This became possible, in particular, due to the abolition of state accreditation of scientific organizations. And, therefore, the criteria for classifying organizations as scientific. Moreover, the very concept of "scientific organization" has lost its legal content, and the executive authorities that carry out state regulation in the scientific and innovation sphere are an effective tool for monitoring them.

All these and numerous similar examples speak of the need to restructure our innovation sphere, radically modernize its management, financing, and organization of work. A fundamental step on this path, in my opinion, could be the creation of a science and technology department under the President of the Russian Federation.

- And what tasks will this organization have to solve?

The main task should be to guide scientific and technical policy to ensure Russia's entry into the sixth technological order. For this, the management should be given appropriate powers to form the basic principles of the scientific and technical policy of the Russian Federation; development of a unified program of fundamental and fundamentally oriented applied research and development and R&D aimed at solving the problems of modernizing the Russian economy, linked to personnel training; coordination and control over the implementation of the program and the distribution of financial resources based on the evaluation of research and scientific work of organizations. The department must also issue recommendations for the acquisition of unique technologies and equipment abroad.

Understand, we cannot catch up. It is necessary to make a sharp leap and, using our own developments and achievements of Western and Eastern colleagues, reach a new level. Information has now become very accessible, and this makes it possible to make such a leap.

Within the framework of the Science and Technology Directorate, it is also advisable to create a working group to prepare proposals for the legal regulation of the public sector of science, the legislative definition of its composition, structure, forms and mechanisms of state support, the creation of a state register of scientific organizations.

This list shows how important the personal composition of the proposed management and the mechanism for making decisions are. Without going into details, I will refer to foreign experience.

Speaking at the National Academy of Sciences, US President Barack Obama put forward a number of messages designed to ensure US leadership. In his opinion, the key to successful development is freedom and independence, including scientific research. Obama expressed confidence in the need to provide the scientific community with the opportunity to "directly intervene in public policy." And he confirmed this thesis in practice: the Presidential Advisory Council on Science and Technology has been expanded this year. By the way, the Obama administration's energy secretary was not an “effective manager,” but a scientist, 1997 Nobel Prize laureate in physics, Stephen Chu.

In the United States, the role of the innovation center is played by the National Science Foundation, which is administered by the Office of Science and Technology under the President of the United States, in France - by the National Center for Scientific Research of the Interministerial Committee for Scientific and Technological Research under the President of the French Republic.

In my opinion, research and technological development centers created on the basis of the Russian Academy of Sciences and state scientific centers (SSC) with the involvement of leading universities capable of providing scientific, methodological and educational activities should become an important link in the proposed new innovation system in Russia.

These centers of research and technological development should be organized not only in the five priority areas of technological breakthrough, designated by the president, but also in such an important area as materials science, materials production. After all, it is materials that are the basis, the foundation on which all scientific and technological achievements are built.

The innovation process is a kind of continuous conveyor for the generation of new knowledge and their use for the production of high technology products, including fundamental, exploratory and applied research, technology development, creation and industrial production of high technology products. Including - with the involvement of venture capital and on the basis of public-private partnerships.

Modern science is a single organism with a well-oiled mechanism of relations both between scientific organizations and between scientific schools and individual scientists. The time has passed not only for single scientists, but also for separate scientific institutions isolated from the world scientific process. What can be said about Russian science in this context?

Unfortunately, over the past twenty years, for well-known reasons, the links between public research organizations of different sectors (academic, university, industry) have greatly weakened. The same can be said for the links between research and production structures. This not only "impoverishes" each of the parties, but also significantly hinders the implementation of innovative developments. Meanwhile, in domestic practice, including in recent years, there are examples of effective cooperation between academic, industry and university organizations, which led to the creation of, in particular, new materials and technologies. This form of cooperation must grow and deepen. The joint participation of representatives of different scientific organizations in joint projects for a specific target is also promising. It is only important to correctly determine the head organization of the project.

For the Academy of Sciences, the importance of interaction with industry institutes is that they are involved in solving problems with a pronounced innovation orientation, with good engineering study provided by industry specialists. Industry organizations, on the other hand, gain access to deep fundamental research of academic institutions.

Interaction can be implemented on a long-term basis within the framework of structures that bring together representatives of academic, industry, industrial organizations, and businesses operating in certain segments of production and market. As part of the proposed research and technological development centers, the SSC is called upon to play an extremely important role.

The role of the SSC is extremely important for the success of research and technological development. Created in order to preserve the leading world-class scientific schools, develop the country's scientific potential in the field of fundamental and applied research and train highly qualified scientific personnel, they remain one of the most important components of the public sector of science.

SSCs have a unique research, production and testing base, and we can safely say that now they meet the requirements of innovative development to the greatest extent. In cooperation with the organizations of the Russian Academy of Sciences and other state academies, leading universities and major sectoral scientific organizations, the SSC creates and implements a serious scientific and technological reserve in priority areas of development of science, technology and technology. This is achieved on the basis of a clear and understandable planning system and mutual coordination of a complex of fundamental, exploratory and applied research and development.

The most important feature of the SSC is the interdepartmental nature of their research and development, which meets the needs of many sectors of the military-industrial complex and the civilian sector of the economy.

Success on an innovative path depends not only on the organization and funding of research, but also on who conducts this research. Over the past twenty years, the most qualified scientists have been leaving Russia en masse, and the level of training of new scientific personnel has been steadily declining.

Of course, even the most generous funding and favorable working conditions will not bring the desired results if there are no people who are able to put forward "crazy" ideas, defend them against all the authorities, spend nights in laboratories and test benches. Therefore, the issue of training and retraining of personnel is among the most important. Without his decision, it makes no sense to talk about innovative development.

By the way, the experience of the last Winter Olympics showed that not only money determines the success of a business. Much more important are the people who are involved in this business. They need to create conditions for work and creativity. Without money, this cannot be done, but even without cultivating interest, enthusiasm, curiosity, finally, nothing will come of it. And no amount of money will help!

In the United States, the administration of the current president, taking measures to improve the level of secondary education, gives priority to mathematics and natural sciences. An additional $ 5 billion is allocated this year to improve curriculum in these subjects and to stimulate better teacher training. In Russian schools, as a result of the reform of secondary education, the number of hours of teaching natural sciences in high school has been reduced in favor of the humanities, which has already affected the preparation of students.

Moreover, the word “engineer” is purposefully washed out of our vocabulary, and technical universities train specialists rather than engineers. This has also been said and written repeatedly.

Undoubtedly, the methodology of the work of technical universities in engineering education that has developed in previous years must be restored. A two-tier system may be suitable for humanitarian specialties. Perhaps a bachelor's degree can turn out to be a good economist or lawyer. But an engineer, researcher, scientist from a student who does not have practical skills cannot be done. And this is a great danger for the country.

Of course, many of the current personnel problems will disappear by themselves when a respectful attitude to the work of a scientist, engineer, and specialist is formed in society. However, it is still necessary to keep under constant control the issues of training scientific and technical personnel, to create conditions for the emergence of scientists with international renown who have achieved serious scientific results.

Foreign analysts - students and followers of ND Kondratyev - agree that the world economy today is experiencing the completion of the next "Kondratyev" cycle. It will remain in memory as a time of not only great economic upheavals, but also dramatic social and political changes. Moreover, it generated a redistribution of power and influence between regions, groups of countries and individual states.

Given these circumstances, Russia's entry into the sixth technological order is not an end in itself, but a question of survival, economic development, ensuring the country's security and international status, and achieving a high level of well-being for our people. This, in fact, is the aim of the above transformations. If you do not take into account the desire of some officials to preserve the appearance of their importance, there are no real obstacles to their implementation. All that is needed is political will and, of course, time.

KONDRATIEV'S CYCLES AND WAVES

According to Kondratyev's theory, the scientific and technological revolution is developing in waves, with cycles lasting about 50 years. By now, five technological modes (waves) are known.

First wave (1785-1835) formed a technological paradigm based on new technologies in the textile industry, the use of water energy.

Second wave (1830-1890) - accelerated development of railway and water transport based on steam engines, widespread introduction of steam engines into industrial production.

Third wave (1880-1940) - use in the industrial production of electrical energy, the development of heavy engineering and electrical industry based on the use of rolled steel, new discoveries in the field of chemistry. The spread of radio communications, telegraph, the development of the automotive industry. Formation of large firms, cartels, syndicates and trusts. Dominance of monopolies in the markets. The beginning of the concentration of banking and financial capital.

Fourth wave (1930-1990) - the formation of a world order based on the further development of energy using oil and petroleum products, gas, communications, new synthetic materials. The period of mass production of cars, tractors, airplanes, various types of weapons, consumer goods. Widespread distribution of computers and software products. Use of atomic energy for military and peaceful purposes. Conveyor technology is becoming the backbone of mass production. The formation of transnational and multinational companies that make direct investments in the markets of various countries.

Fifth wave (1985-2035) relies on advances in microelectronics, computer science, biotechnology, genetic engineering, the use of new types of energy, materials, space exploration, satellite communications, etc. There is a transition from disparate firms to a single network of large and small companies connected by an electronic network based on the Internet, closely interacting in the field of technology, product quality control, and innovation planning.

It is assumed that with the acceleration of scientific and technological progress, the period between changes in technological structures will decrease.

Technological order - these are groups of technological aggregates connected with each other by the same type of technological chains and forming reproductive integrity.

The technical structure is characterized by:

key factor

organizational and economic regulation mechanism.

The concept of a way of life means arrangement, an established order of organizing something.

In the modern concept, the life cycle of a technological paradigm has 3 phases of development and is determined by a time period of about 100 years. The first phase falls on its inception and formation in the economy of the previous technological order. The second phase is associated with the restructuring of the economy on the basis of a new production technology and corresponds to the period of dominance of the new technological order for about 50 years. The third phase falls on the withering away of the aging structure and the emergence of the next.

S.Yu. Glazyev developed N. Kondratyev's theory and identified five technological orders. However, unlike Kondratyev, Glazyev believes that the life cycle of the technological order has not two parts (upward and downward waves), but three phases and is determined by a period of 100 years.

There is a period of monopoly between phases I and II. Some organizations achieve effective monopoly, develop, receive high profits, because are protected by intellectual and industrial property laws.

Directly product innovations are considered primary. They appear in the bowels of the economy of the previous technological order. In itself, the emergence of extraordinary innovations - products means the phase of the emergence of a new technological order. However, its slow development over a certain period of time is explained by the monopoly position of individual companies that were the first to apply product innovations. They are successfully developing, achieving high profits, as they are protected by intellectual property laws.

Russian scientists have described the fourth and fifth technological structures (see table).

Table - Chronology and characteristics of technological orders

	technological order number
Dominance period	1770-1830	1830-1880	1880-1930	1930-1980	Since 1980 1990 by 2030-2040 (?)
Technology leaders	UK, France, Belgium	UK, France, Belgium, Germany, USA	Germany, USA, UK, France, Belgium, Switzerland, Netherlands	USA, Western European countries, USSR, Canada, Australia, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland	Japan, USA, EU
The developed countries	German states, Netherlands	Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria-Hungary, Russia	Russia, Italy, Denmark, Austria-Hungary, Canada, Japan, Spain, Sweden	Brazil, Mexico, China, Taiwan, India	Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Venezuela, China, India, Indonesia, Turkey, Eastern Europe, Canada, Australia, Taiwan, Korea, Russia and the CIS-?
The core of the technological order	Textile industry, textile machinery, iron smelting, iron processing, canal construction, water engine	Steam engine, railway construction, transport, mechanical engineering, shipbuilding, coal, machine tool industry, ferrous metallurgy	Electrical, heavy engineering, steel production and rolling, power lines, inorganic chemistry	Automotive, tractor construction, nonferrous metallurgy, production of durable goods, synthetic materials, organic chemistry, oil production and refining	Electronic industry, computing, fiber-optic technology, software, telecommunications, robotics, gas production and processing, information services
Key factor	Textile machines	Steam engine, machine tools	Electric motor, steel	Internal combustion engine, petrochemicals	Microelectronic components
The emerging core of the new order	Steam engines, mechanical engineering	Steel, power engineering, heavy engineering, inorganic chemistry	Automotive, organic chemistry, oil production and refining, non-ferrous metallurgy, road construction	Radars, pipeline construction, aviation, gas production and processing	Biotechnology, space technology, fine chemistry
Advantages of the technological structure compared to the previous one	Mechanization and concentration of production in factories	Increase in scale and concentration of production based on the use of the steam engine	Increased production flexibility through the use of an electric motor, production standardization, urbanization	Mass and serial production	Individualization of production and consumption, increasing the flexibility of production, overcoming environmental restrictions on energy and material consumption based on ACS, de-urbanization based on telecommunication technologies

Technologically developed countries have moved from the fourth to the fifth technological order, embarking on the path of de-industrialization of production. At the same time, for the products of the fourth technological order, the models are being modified, which is sufficient to ensure effective demand in their countries to keep market niches abroad.

The fourth technological order (fourth wave) was formed on the basis of the development of energy using oil, gas, communications, new synthetic materials. This is the era of mass production of cars, tractors and agricultural machinery, airplanes, and various types of weapons. At this time, a computer appeared and software products for them began to be created. The energy of the atom was used for peaceful and military purposes. Organized mass production based on conveyor technology.

The fifth wave relies on advances in microeconomics, informatics, satellite communications, genetic engineering. The globalization of the economy is observed, which is facilitated by the worldwide information network.

The core of a new sixth technological order, including biotechnology, space technology, fine chemistry, artificial intelligence systems, global information networks, the formation of networked business communities, etc. The origin of the 6th order dates back to the early 90s of the twentieth century within the framework of the 5th technological order.

In the domestic economy, for a number of objective reasons, the potential of the third and fourth technological modes has not yet been fully used. At the same time, high-tech industries of the fifth technological order were created.

The dominance of the technological order for a long period of time is influenced by state support for new technologies in combination with the innovative activities of organizations. Process innovations improve product quality, help reduce production costs and ensure sustainable consumer demand in the goods market.

Thus, the main conclusion following from the study of the impact of innovation on the level of economic development is the conclusion about uneven undulating innovative development. This conclusion is taken into account when developing and choosing innovative strategies. Previously, forecasts used a trend approach based on extrapolation, which assumed the inertia of economic systems. Recognition of the cyclical nature of innovative development made it possible to explain its leaps and bounds.

In the modern concept of the theory of innovation, it is customary to single out such concepts as product life cycle and production technology life cycle.

The product life cycle consists of four phases.

1. In the first phase, research and development is carried out to create an innovation-product. The phase ends with the transfer of the processed technical documentation to the production units of industrial organizations.

2. In the second phase, the technological development of large-scale production of a new product takes place, accompanied by a decrease in cost and an increase in profits.

Both the first and especially the second phase involve significant risk investments, which are allocated on a repayable basis. The subsequent increase in the scale of production is accompanied by a decrease in costs and an increase in profits. This makes it possible to recoup investments in the first and second phases of the product life cycle.

3. A feature of the third phase is the stabilization of production volumes.

4. In the fourth phase, there is a gradual decline in production and sales.

The life cycle of a production technology also consists of 4 phases:

1. The emergence of process innovations through a wide range of technological R&D.

2. Mastering innovations-processes at the facility.

3. Dissemination and replication of new technology with multiple repetition at other sites.

4. Implementation of innovations-processes in stable, constantly functioning elements of objects (routinization).

The fusion of applied science and technology audit, modern centers of competence and Soviet experience will make it possible to move industrial policy one and a half cycles ahead. The executive director of Finval Engineering Alexey Petrov and the commercial director of the company Alexey Ivanin told the Military-Industrial Courier what was missing for the breakthrough.

The 90s severely battered the domestic instrument and machine tool building, other advanced industries. The civil aviation industry is dragging out a miserable existence.

But the military-industrial complex machine-building remains the backbone of the Russian economy. Its competitiveness, especially the growth rate, is due exclusively to high-tech and knowledge-intensive sectors.

- The corporation was tasked with setting up the production of a large-scale facility, say, to resume production of the Tu-160. The first steps of her leadership?

- When it comes to creating a production facility for a new product, the heads of the corporation first of all face the task of competently organizing pre-design work, conducting technological preparation, and choosing a head production. It is clear that today none of the existing enterprises can make such an aircraft. We need to establish large-scale cooperation between the factories. A significant time has passed since the release of the last such machine, a lot has changed - the enterprises that participated in the production chain are closed or found themselves abroad. Some technologies are most likely outdated, while others are lost. First, you need to create a digital - 3D model of the product. A set of scanned drawings in a computer - the last century. We are talking specifically about a three-dimensional digital model assembled. So that you can see the requirements for any of the parts and the manufacturing technology of each. Second: to organize the study of the implementation of the task.

The creation of such a production is a long process, it can take several years. An important issue is the choice of technology, selection of equipment, and its manufacture. It often happens that standard machines are not suitable, you need to order them, develop and manufacture tooling, which in itself is long and expensive. This will be followed by the delivery of equipment, commissioning, testing of technology on a specific product and then delivery in all parameters that were previously installed. In addition, it is necessary to carefully plan production cooperation.

- Where is your place in this chain?

- When the production program appears, then our work begins. It is impossible to develop technology, it is not known to what extent and to what extent. When we solve a problem, we must take into account the possibilities of cooperation between enterprises, the presence of competence centers in the holding or plans for their creation. In accordance with this, we develop production technology, select equipment, tooling and tools, develop requirements for personnel.

To carry out such a large-scale project, a structure is needed that can guarantee the execution of the contract, when the contractor undertakes everything: technological and construction design, selection and purchase of equipment, tooling and tools, organization of the construction of the facility and control over its progress, installation and commissioning of equipment, etc. e. Any textbook on project management describes the advantages of EPCM contracts (EPСM from English engineering - engineering, procurement - supply, construction - construction, management - management): cost reduction, predictability of achieving the desired result, flexibility in the distribution of risks and responsibilities, individual approach to the customer.

- It's in the textbook, but what about our reality?

- The system is widely developed in the West and a little in our country - in industries that are largely integrated into the world: energy and oil and gas production.

As for the enterprises of the defense complex and mechanical engineering in general, the problem is that the customer in most cases simply does not have the opportunity to conclude this kind of contract, since he works in financial and managerial regulations that do not allow to invest in the project in full. Hence the problems. We also cannot be responsible for the entire project. The customer has an organization that is building the facility, but there is no one responsible for the supply of equipment, for training personnel and building an information corporate system.

- It turns out that there is no customer in the state?

- Not in the state, but in mechanical engineering. He is in the state. When it comes to building a nuclear power plant, no one proposes to build it in parts. The NPP is leased on a turnkey basis.

- But nuclear power plants are also mechanical engineering ...

“You can pump up one hundred billion, make the plant ideal, but it will be loaded by three percent, because it is included in cooperation with enterprises that have not been modernized in any way”

- This is an energy facility, from there an order for turbines and other equipment comes, that is, mechanical engineering acts as a supplier. But the project is managed by an energy company or its general contractor, who is responsible for ensuring that, according to the budget and timeframe, the facility is created and produces the required number of megawatts. Here the EPCM contract scheme works great, it must be extended to mechanical engineering. Moreover, this has been discussed for a long time.

The state should act as a competent customer. Do not ask the heads of companies that carry out defense orders how much money is invested in their factories, but ask how much it will cost to produce a tank. An engineering company will develop production technology, select equipment and give its approximate cost. We add to it the costs of design, modernization of production, scheduled repairs, and other related costs, then divide the amount received by the number of orders and get the price of one. In fact, this is not the same as the cost of a tank at a given enterprise.

The challenge is to ensure the product lifecycle. In the life cycle of a product, production is only a part - the most important, but no more. And design development, R&D, modernization of operated products and further disposal are financed in parts at best.

Initially, engineers develop the design of a product, then an engineering company or a technological institute enters into work, which develop technical and technological solutions for future production. Based on this information, design estimates are generated. After that, the data is submitted to the construction company. We are now the opposite. Funds are allocated for the construction part. This is the main difference. You cannot start building a plant until an engineering company or a technological institute creates a project, receives money for it and undergoes a state examination together with the customer.

But organizational and technological design, which plays a crucial role, is not given sufficient attention at this stage. What is the result? The building was built magnificently, the most modern equipment was purchased, but there was not enough money and attention for a thorough organizational and technological design.

Why is it important? Any enterprise is tied to the territory where it is located. For example, if there are enough skilled workers in the region, in order to minimize the cost of purchasing equipment, we can make a project with the maximum possible use of universal machines. But there may be a completely different picture, and then you have to use unmanned technologies, because there is simply no one to supply the universal equipment.

These and many other issues must be taken into account at the stage of pre-project work or, in modern terms, during the technological audit of the project.

- How to achieve this?

- The most important thing is to lay down the pre-design procedures in the regulations. This will create a quality plant. Here you can recall the Soviet experience - in the then practice there was no concept of "technological audit", but they operated on another - "technological design", which was a mandatory phase for any industrial enterprise. And this was financed in a regular way based on the volume of total capital investments in the project - exactly what is not now available.

- Is it possible to return to this?

- You need to return! If we are talking about the modernization of production, then it must necessarily be tied to the product that is supposed to be produced. Otherwise, we can spend a lot of money, buy good machines and still get zero results. Because it may become clear: the required product cannot be made on these machines, or it is required to develop expensive equipment, and many previously unaccounted for circumstances may still open. As a result, either the product will not be produced at all, or its cost will become prohibitive. Therefore, we are constantly talking about the need for a clear procedure for carrying out technological audit and design work. And then a high-quality project with a normal feasibility study will be made, which takes into account every step and all costs for equipment, personnel, tooling, and so on.

We emphasize once again: we need a systematic order of society and the state. The country participates in global competition, the world is moving from the fifth technological order, from paperless technology to the sixth - to a deserted technology. Accordingly, those who do this first will be the undisputed leaders. And today more than half of our economy is still in the fourth dimension.

- And enterprises are ruled by people proceeding from the paradigm of the fourth order ...

- Exactly. It is necessary to move industrial policy one and a half cycles ahead.

- Who in the country can do this?

- Previously, the industrial policy program was and was implemented in every line ministry. Now there is only the Ministry of Industry and Trade, which cannot cover everything, and a certain vacuum appears. So it's up to business. Each corporation is required to understand: it does not manage thousands of factories, but the production of specific products. It is from this that one should proceed, because the market should be offered a competitive product, and not information about how many factories and machine tools a manufacturer has.

- To this he can answer, what makes the tanks that the Ministry of Defense requires, so the demand ...

- So the fact of the matter is that they are responsible not for the tank, but for the factories, which it is not clear what and why they produce. And at an arbitrary cost.

But this is one side. Before talking about modernization at any enterprise, you must first understand - in the production chain of which product it is included, in the interests of which product it is worth introducing innovations, and how this will affect the enterprises that are part of the cooperation. You can add one hundred billion, make the plant ideally modern, but it will be loaded by three percent, because it is included in cooperation with enterprises that have not been modernized in any way ...

Investments must be viewed as a whole, so now we are talking about what corporate leaders need. The factories have many of their own problems, but at the corporation level there are more of them precisely because there are many enterprises, they are different, their leaders adhere to different views and have different life experiences, the teams are well-formed and also significantly different in age and qualifications. And you need to manage them in a unified way. And we propose to do this proceeding from the thesis that it is necessary to manage the production of a product, and not a specific plant. There is a director there, let him manage it.

The whole question is in the ability to set tasks correctly, ask the right questions to the enterprises that are part of the corporation, and get the right answers in a single format. And again we are talking about technology audit. What's the point if audits at a hundred plants of one corporation are carried out by different organizations according to their own methods and each provides the results in its own form? In principle, it is impossible to draw any conclusions on such a shaky basis, because there is no connection to the final result.

- Need a regulation?

- Exactly. Which clearly states: what is a technology audit, who has the right to perform it. And every auditor must be certified. Today, anyone can do technological design; for this, even licenses are not required and technical education is not required.

By the way, we can create any kind of regulatory documents, but money for technological design or technological audit must necessarily be included in the budgets of corporations. It is necessary to allocate money for engineering to enterprises so that they can order engineering services on the side.

This will serve as the best incentive for the development of engineering companies. Now there is no corresponding line in the budget, and even if the head of the corporation wants to order such a service, he has no opportunity.

- And he starts looking for reserves?

- He, for example, asks to carry out the design for free, including the cost of services, say, in the composition of the equipment that will be purchased as a result of the project. This distorts the market, you can't do that. In construction, there are clear rules for payment for design work, and exactly the same rules should be adopted when forming the cost of pre-design work. You need a clear link to the estimated cost of the object, then you will understand why such money is being requested.

So far, our enterprises are not ready to pay for this - they simply do not understand what they will actually get. In addition, many managers do not know what engineering is, or think that it is only about the supply of equipment, and believe that the company "Finval" does only this.

- How to manage upgrades?

- The main point: when a company requests financial resources from a corporation, a concept of upcoming changes must be drawn up. That is, it is necessary to convey to the corporation what kind of transformations are needed, how they are planned to be carried out and why. Modernization should start first of all with the product, that is, with what the company plans to produce and in what volume. We have a successful track record of creating and defending such concepts.

- Is this a purely financial document?

- Investment justification cannot be carried out on the basis of financial calculations alone. The concept should be based on technological elaboration. It is necessary to go from the product, to show that there is a clear and long-term demand in the market - only with such information the document will be of interest to the investor.

- Creation of competence centers is in vogue now. In your opinion, do they really contribute to the modernization of the machine-building complex?

- We ardently support the creation of competence centers. The modern economy implies ensuring competition due to the effective interaction of such centers with serial enterprises. But there are also reservations.

- For example, there is a bunch of enterprises that produce approximately the same products and are part of the same structure. The corporation receives a request for funding from them, and it turns out that it needs to buy, say, one hundred identical machines, each worth two hundred million rubles. This raises the question: is it really necessary for each plant to be given the requested financing or is it worth creating a single center where there will be not one hundred, but ten such machines, and it will provide all enterprises with products of a specific range?

- The idea is sound.

- Ideally, such a center also effectively works with orders, fulfills them with high quality and on time, and most importantly, it has up-to-date technological expertise, that is, it monitors market trends and replaces outdated technological processes with new ones in time. For example, if a foundry competence center is being created, then it should be an expert in this area. It is necessary to connect a scientific base to such a center of competence, whose activities are aimed at advanced research and development that can outstrip competitors. But it is precisely in a narrow specialization, as mentioned above, in casting. This gives ground for export. Moreover, it is important to develop both a military and a peaceful theme. If it is casting, the enterprise can produce both guns and frying pans. You just need to add applied work in the field of science and you can enter the world markets.

- Are you talking about the realities of our day?

- It should be so, but today in state structures there is no single clear understanding that there is a competence center. They still believe that this is just a set of machine tools that produce standard operations, typical products, and for the enterprise this is another opportunity to receive money from the state.

But the problem is that technologies are changing rapidly, and we are in favor of not only having a set of machine tools in the centers of excellence, but also mandatory applied science.

We advocate that the centers of competence have such a composition of equipment and scientific activities that will truly turn our country into a world leader in the field of production. By introducing modern technologies in centers of excellence, we will create self-sustaining and innovative products. Yes, at the initial stage, these will be products for their factories, and in the future, the participation of centers of excellence in international exhibitions will raise us to a completely new level - a world leader in the field of production. Competence centers need to take part in leading specialized exhibitions as a separate manufacturer, where we can demonstrate our advanced developments and scientific base.

All activities should be directed towards the future. Now the ratio of production, for example, 90 percent - military products, 10 percent - civilian. But over time, this proportion, for obvious reasons, shifts towards the civilian. The number of civil orders will increase, including by reducing the cost of production in this particular industry. Competence centers should be leaders not only within the corporation, but on the scale of Russia. We will be able to master new types of products, as well as fulfill export orders. We must have the best enterprises in the industry, with impeccable quality of production, meeting international standards. And we must be one step ahead of the competition.

In the meantime, everything turns into “let's save some money, we won't buy machines for everyone, we will take ten times less, put them in one place”. This is good, but clearly not enough. Lack of science and incentives for development will lead to the fact that instead of a competence center in a couple of years there will be a “garage with nuts”. Meanwhile, the corporation that built the center, in addition to saving on equipment, will also want to recoup the costs. And they can be recaptured only on the foreign market, where the center will pick up third-party orders.

- Is it bad to recoup the costs?

- It may happen that the corporation's factories, all at once, needed some unfortunate nut. And in the center there is a millionth order, because of one nut they will not change the machines there and will be right in their own way. What's the bottom line? The problems of the factories were aggravated - before they had their own equipment, they made this nut on it if necessary, now there is no such possibility. But factories do not produce nuts, but a certain product. And it may turn out that it will not be finally handed over because of one unfortunate nut. And from here there is already a problem with the delivery of the state defense order. 99.99 percent complete, but the nut is missing. And why? Because they said that there is nothing for this machine to do at the factory, the nut is too expensive. Because they consider its cost in comparison with mass production. And it must be considered in comparison with the cost in the total product and losses due to the fact that delivery is delayed for months, since they are waiting for a nut.

- Who should decide this question?

- Leaders who make decisions on the creation of competence centers. To avoid such absurd situations, there must be technical specialists among them who can foresee and articulate these risks. Such decisions cannot be made only on the basis of economic expediency and on the basis of financial calculations.

- In this case, is there a regulation in the country for the creation of competence centers?

- Not. Each corporation independently determines what exactly it means by a competence center and what tasks it intends to solve with its help.

- Are there such centers that fully correspond to their name?

- There is. For example, our company has a Engineering Technology Center. There, not only the equipment that we supply is presented, but also processing technologies are being developed, training for machine operators and technologists is conducted. Having experience and the necessary expertise, we can reasonably say on which equipment it is better to manufacture a product and how to do it optimally. Not cheap or expensive, but only in this way - optimal. The price does matter, but the optimum is made up of different things: serial production, risks, the possibility of expanding production, well-established cooperation, etc. It's one thing to slap nuts in millions of copies, and quite another - a million different nuts. But all goals cannot be considered primary.

- What do you think is the way out?

It is necessary to create centers of excellence. They will contribute to building up technological competencies, the emergence of new breakthrough technologies, and reducing the cost of production. This, in turn, will increase its competitiveness. It is necessary to realize that in a few years the rearmament of the Russian army and navy will end and there will be an urgent need for the production of competitive civilian products. Today we need to think about the production of civilian and dual-use products, so that the funds spent on the modernization of military-industrial complex enterprises work for the development of the entire Russian economy, increasing the export of high-tech products. By the way, the creation of centers of excellence is not necessarily the prerogative of government agencies. For example, in Germany, in the machine tool industry, which brings billions in revenues and provides the country with a leading position in the world market, 99.5 percent of engineering and manufacturing companies are representatives of small and medium-sized businesses - they play the role of centers of competence there and are very successful.

- And we have?

- Everything is somewhat more complicated with us. The creation of such centers requires large financial costs and the involvement of serious specialists. Few small and medium-sized enterprises are ready for such investments. And the market for engineering services in our mechanical engineering has not yet formed. As for state-owned enterprises, now many corporations are beginning to be interested in creating centers of excellence, but when organizing them, it is necessary to clearly formulate goals. Technology development should be handled by technology professionals, not lawyers or financiers. These centers will not always be able to be self-sustaining, but it should be clearly understood what problems they will help to solve and what results the management of corporations wants to get from their creation. And besides, it is necessary to understand that the design of such a center is not done instantly. This may take from three months to six months, depending on the volume of the production program and the complexity of cooperation. Because competently designing a cooperation is not at all the same as building a building and installing ten machines. It is necessary to clearly calculate how to ensure that each of the factories of the corporation receives what it needs at a particular moment, and the end customer receives finished products on time with the required quality. We have a successful experience in designing such centers.

It should be noted that in the West, tenders are announced for a finished product, our situation is different - tenders are held for the supply of equipment. The centers of competence have equipment, a scientific base, corresponding competencies. Together with all these parameters, our centers of excellence will be able to participate in global tenders for the supply of specific products.

- Who besides you can solve such problems?

- Probably someone can, if puzzled. But by and large, no one is busy with this yet. Too complicated and unpredictable. The main task of corporations is to harmonize interaction with factories, to build clear management. In dialogue with us, this task is being solved. We can suggest what to look for, help formulate requirements. Corporate leaders should have a systematic approach to the development of their enterprises. Cooperation should be viewed from the point of view of the production of the final product - and this is the most difficult thing.

The third technological order (1880-1930)

The main feature is the widespread use of electric motors and the rapid development of electrical engineering. At the same time, specialization of steam engines takes place. Consumption of alternating current becomes dominant, and the construction of power plants has begun. The most important energy source during the period of the dominance of this structure is coal. At the same time, oil is also beginning to gain positions in the energy market, although it should be noted that it became the leading energy carrier only at the fourth TU.

The chemical industry is making great strides during this period. Of the many chemical and technological innovations, the following gained importance: the ammonia process for producing soda, obtaining sulfuric acid by the contact method, and electrochemical technology.

The fourth technological order (1930-1970)

By the 1940s. the technique, which forms the basis of the third TR, has reached the limits of its development and improvement. Then the formation of the fourth technical specification began, which laid down new directions for the development of technology. The necessary material and technical base had already been formed by this time. For example, the following were created and mastered:

• road infrastructure;
• telephone networks;
• new technologies and infrastructures for oil production;
• technological processes in non-ferrous metallurgy.

During the period of the third technical specification, an internal combustion engine was introduced, which became one of the basic innovations of the fourth technical specification. At the same time, the formation of the automotive industry and the development of the first samples of tracked transport and special equipment, which formed the core of the fourth TU, took place. The industries that made up the core of the fourth TU are the chemical industry (primarily organic chemistry), the automotive industry and the production of motorized weapons. This stage is characterized by a new machine base, comprehensive mechanization of production, automation of many basic technological processes, widespread use of skilled labor, and an increase in production specialization.

During the life cycle of the fourth TS, the outstripping development of the electric power industry continued. Oil is becoming the leading energy source. Petroleum products are used as the main fuel for almost all types of transport - diesel locomotives, cars, airplanes, helicopters, rockets. Oil has also become an essential feedstock for the chemical industry. With the expansion of the fourth TU, a global telecommunications system based on telephone and radio communications is being created. There has been a transition of the population to a new type of consumption, characterized by massive consumption of durable goods, synthetic goods.

The fifth technological order (1970-2010)

By the 1970s. in developed countries, the fourth TU has reached the limits of its expansion. Since that time, the fifth TU begins to form, which now dominates in most developed countries. This way can be defined as the way of information and communication technologies. Microelectronics and software are key factors. Among the most important industries are the production of automation and telecommunications equipment.

As already noted, most innovations of the new paradigm are formed in the dominance phase of the previous paradigm. This is particularly well demonstrated in this case. According to experts, about 80% of the main innovations of the fifth technical specification were introduced before 1984. And the earliest introduction dates back to 1947 - the period of the creation of the transistor. The first EMW appeared in 1949, the first operating system - in 1954, the silicon transistor - in 1954. These inventions served as the foundation for the creation of the fifth technical device. Simultaneously with the development of the semiconductor industry, there was rapid progress in the field of software - by the end of the 1950s. a family of first high-level programming languages \u200b\u200bappeared.

However, the spread of the new fifth technical standard was hampered by the underdevelopment of the leading industries, the formation of which, in turn, ran into limited demand, since new technologies were not yet sufficiently effective and were not accepted by existing institutions. The introduction of the microprocessor in 1971 was a turning point in the formation of the fifth technical specification and opened up new opportunities for rapid progress in all directions.

The invention of the microcomputer and the associated rapid advances in software have made information technology convenient, cheap, and accessible for both industrial and non-industrial consumption. The driving industries of the information order have entered a phase of maturity.

The beginning of the fifth TR is associated with the development of new means of communication, digital networks, computer programs and genetic engineering. The fifth TU actively generates the creation and continuous improvement of both new machines and equipment (computers, numerical control (CNC), robots, processing centers, various kinds of machines) and information systems (databases, local and integrated computing systems, information languages, etc.) information processing software). Of great importance among the leading industries of the fifth TU in the manufacturing industry are flexible automated production (HAP). Flexible automation of industrial production dramatically expands the variety of products. In addition, the fifth TU is characterized by de-urbanization of the population and the associated development of new information and transport infrastructure. Free access of every person to global information networks, the development of global media systems, air transport radically change human ideas about time and space. This, in turn, affects the structure of needs and motivation of people's behavior.

During the life cycle of the fifth TS, the role of natural gas and NIE increases.

Sixth technological order (2010 - present)

Since the beginning of the 2000s. in the depths of the fifth TR, elements of the sixth TR began to appear more and more. Its key areas include biotechnology, artificial intelligence systems, CALS -technologies, global information networks and integrated high-speed transport systems, computer education, the formation of networked business communities. These are the industries that are currently developing in the leading countries at a particularly fast pace (sometimes from 20 to 100% per year).

Technological paradigms (TS), economics of nanotechnology and technological roadmaps of nanoproducts (fibers, textiles, clothing) until 2015 and beyond

We invite authors to publish their materials on our website (NNN edition)

Chapter from the book

Introduction

Why three problems are presented in one chapter and in sequence: technological paradigms, economics of nanotechnology and technological roadmaps of nanoproducts (fibers, textiles, clothing)?

According to the author, which coincides with the point of view of leading scientists in the field of natural and technical sciences and, most importantly, based on the results of practice, the level of technologies, their implementation, the need for them have determined and determine the development of civilization over several millennia. And the economy (well, where can we go without it) is secondary, a derivative of technologies that determine technological modes, the level of productive forces and production relations, and, consequently, the economy. Therefore, we will first consider the role of technological structures in the development of civilizations, then against this background the economy of nanotechnology in a broad sense and the economy of nanotechnology of fibers, textiles and textile products. And, finally, a roadmap for the production of nanofibers, nanotextiles and products from them, as a derivative of the technological modes of the present and future and the economy of nanotechnology of textiles.

Clothes of the future from nano-textiles.
Photo from the site veritas.blogshare.ru

Technological and other structures of the past, present and future

The chapter and the book as a whole are being written at a time when the world has not yet got out of the global economic crisis, which the most eminent economists with world names, including Nobel laureates, could not predict. Not only did they not predict, but also do not give sensible recommendations for overcoming this crisis. How can the leaders of large and small, developed and developing states compete in this? The fact is that all of them are economists, lawyers, security officers - people with a liberal arts education who come to power and recruit people close to the "blood type" mentality in their teams, think linearly, believing that finance is the engine, locomotive, engine of progress. money, the technology of their increment by any means, including global speculation. The production of material values, the technological level of production (in a broad sense), fundamentally new, revolutionary technologies and the products produced by them are put on the back burner. Such a monetarist view of the development of the world economy, very fashionable among economists and politicians, in which, in fact, new revolutionary technologies are the main driving force, does not allow predicting inevitable crises and finding effective solutions to them.

Scientists organically connected with the creation and implementation of new technologies (physicists, chemists, mathematicians, materials scientists, engineers, technologists, designers) adhere to a different view of the development of the world economy, the causes of emerging and overcoming crises.

The views of these scientists ( G.G. Malinetskiy, S.Yu. Glazyev, D.S. Lvov), which the author also shares, rely on the works of the Soviet scientist N.D. Kondratyev, who back in the 20s of the last century put forward the theory of large cycles of the development of the world economy, which in turn determine the inevitability, cyclicality of crises and not only economic ones. The economic, modern, recent global crisis is usually explained by too much enthusiasm for financial speculation, which led to a disproportionate flow of capital into the financial sector and an outflow from the real productive sector of the economy. The result was a curtailment of production (not only in our country, in all developed countries), a reduction in jobs, incomes of hired workers and a loss of economic stability. The unjustified tilt towards the financial sector is absolute, but not complete. But this explanation of the crisis underestimates the role of technology, underutilization of scientific and technological progress, delay in commercialization and promotion of new products and innovative technologies into the real sector of the economy and the market, which was the result of business inertia in transferring investments to the development of highly productive breakthrough innovations in the real sector of the economy. competitive products new technological order, now on the 6th.

What are technological orders? Technological structures are a complex of mastered revolutionary technologies, innovations, inventions that underlie the quantitative and qualitative leap in the development of the productive forces of society.

The cause of all global economic crises lies in the change in the technological development paradigm. Economic crises arise at a time when society, business, and politicians are late in realizing the need to reject (first partially, and then almost completely) from the current one and the need for society to turn to mastering a new technological order.

The crisis is a price to pay for the inertia in the change of technological and, as a consequence, economic paradigm.

The last economic crisis is global, because the world is globalized, integrated. To get out of the crisis, first of all, it is necessary to realize their cyclical nature, inevitability and to distinguish them as the limiting stage and factor in the development of breakthrough, revolutionary technologies.

In connection with such a dominant role of technologies (innovations), they are classified to revolutionary and evolutionary

• revolutionary (breakthrough), replacing pioneer technologies, aimed at creating fundamentally new products, goods, services or other material goods;
• evolutionary, improving (ongoing) innovations (technologies) aimed at improving already mastered products, goods, services, etc.

Evolutionary innovations and technologies do not completely disappear during the transition to a new technological order, but they cease to play a dominant role, giving way to revolutionary ones.

We can observe the coexistence of the revolutionary innovations of the past with the revolutionary innovations of the present. We have not yet abandoned any of the technological revolutions of the distant past - the wheel, the later book printing, existing today along with aviation and the Internet.

The theory of ND Kondratyev is based on the cyclical nature of socio-economic development in short, medium and long wave cycles.

According to the theory of ND Kondratyev, a crisis occurs when the troughs of short, medium and long waves coincide, which occur during the existence of our civilization every 40–60 years and fall on the phase of a change in technological structures.

ND Kondratyev predicted the crisis of the 30s of the last century. the real crisis also follows from the theory of ND Kondratyev; another crisis can be expected in the 40s – 60s of this century. Such cyclical development and crises adequate to it will apparently continue until the essence of the development of civilization changes and the transition to a new transhumanistic civilization, where the biological essence of man changes.

In the meantime, until now, humanity in its development has consistently mastered technological structures, in each of which there have been revolutionary leaps in labor productivity and quality of life in all areas in comparison with previous technological structures.

In its development, the Earth civilization has gone through a number of pre-industrial and at least 6 industrial technological orders, and now developed countries are on the 5th technological order and are intensively preparing for the transition to the 6th technological order, which will provide them with a way out of the economic crisis. Those countries that are late with the transition to the 6th technological order will be stuck in an economic crisis and stagnation. The situation in Russia is very difficult, since we did not move from the 4th technological order to the 5th one, due to the de-industrialization of the industrial potential of the USSR, i.e. did not go over to the 5th post-industrial order and are forced, if we succeed, to jump directly to the 6th technological order. The task is daunting, if not almost impossible, especially in the absence of an industrial policy from the country's leadership. The well-known thesis of Karl Marx, on which more than one generation of Soviet people was brought up, that productive forces and production relations determine the socio-economic system, can be substantially corrected in the light of N.D. Kondratyev's theory:

technological structures, the level of technologies determine the productive forces and production relations, and there are direct and feedback links between them.

Large periodic cycles

Preindustrial structures were based on muscular, manual, equestrian energy of man and animals. All the inventions of that time, which have come down to our time, concerned the strengthening of the muscular strength of humans and animals (screw, lever, wheel, gearbox, potter's wheel, furs in a forge, mechanical spinning wheel, hand loom).

The beginning of the industrial periods of technological orders falls on the end of the 18th - early 19th centuries.

The first technological order characterized by the use of water energy in the textile industry, water mills, drives of various mechanisms.

Second technological order... The beginning of the XIX - the end of the XIX century - using the energy of steam and coal: steam engine, steam engine, steam locomotive, steamboats, steam drives of spinning and weaving machines, steam mills, steam hammer. There is a gradual liberation of a person from heavy manual labor. A person has more free time.

The third technological order... Late 19th - early 20th century. The use of electrical energy, heavy engineering, electrical and radio engineering, radio communications, telegraph, household appliances. Improving the quality of life.

The fourth technological order... Early XX - late XX century. Energy use of hydrocarbons. Widespread use of internal combustion engines, electric motors, cars, tractors, aircraft, synthetic polymer materials, the beginning of nuclear power.

The fifth technological order... Late XX - early XXI century. Electronics and microelectronics, nuclear energy, information technology, genetic engineering, the beginning of nano- and biotechnology, space exploration, satellite communications, video and audio equipment, the Internet, cell phones. Globalization with the rapid movement of products, services, people, capital, ideas.

Sixth technological order... The beginning of the XXI - the middle of the XXI century. There is an overlap on the 5th technological order, it is called post-industrial. Nano- and biotechnology, nanoenergy, molecular, cellular and nuclear technologies, nanobiotechnology, biomimetics, nanobionics, nanotronics and other nanoscale industries; new medicine, household appliances, modes of transport and communications, the use of stem cells, engineering of living tissues and organs, reconstructive surgery and medicine, a significant increase in the life expectancy of humans and animals.

It should be noted an important characteristic of the change in technological structures: the discovery and invention of all innovations begins much earlier than their mass development. Those. their origin occurs in one technological order, and mass use in the next. In other words, there is an inertia of business and political thinking of business and the political elite. Capital is moving into new technological segments of the economy in which management is ready to move.

Countries and societies that have felt the innovations of the new technological order more quickly enter it and turn out to be leaders (England - 2nd technological order, USA, Japan, Korea - 4th technological order, USA, China, India - 5th technological order).

Some scientists are already starting to talk about the imminent (in the 21st century) offensive and 7th technological order, for which the center will be a person as the main object of technology.

Everything that was created in the previous technological order does not disappear in the next, remaining already non-dominant. If business and political leadership do not feel changes in the leading positions of new technologies characteristic of the new technological order and continue to invest in old production facilities, then a crisis arises or continues, because capital, investment, management does not keep pace with innovation. A typical example is the Russian car industry, in which there is constant investment without innovation. As a result, the products remain uncompetitive. Consequently, innovations, revolutionary technologies must be supported in time by capital at all stages: new ideas, new technologies, new products with high added value, product promotion to the market, profit making, investment in new ideas, etc. All this can be realized only with healthy (without crime) competition in all areas of human activity (politics, business, science, art, culture, etc.).

Figure 1 shows in the form of cycles the content of the 4th and 5th technological orders and the beginning of the emergence of the 6th order, in which nano-, bio- and information technologies will shape and change the economy, social and cultural spheres. Indirectly with the change of technological structures, the cycles of the development of science change.

The following tables show the change in technological orders, cycles of development of science, the sequence of geopolitical crises, extremes of scientific activity and geoeconomic cycles.

Figure 1. Natural cycle of development of macrotechnologies according to ND Kondratyev

Table. Science development cycles

Years	Loops	Key principles
	Mechanistic natural science	Rationalism. The secularization of science. Scientific and technological revolution
	Evolutionism	Law of energy conservation. The second law of thermodynamics. The origin of biological species
	Relativism. Quantum mechanics	Principles of Quantum Mechanics and Theory of Relativity. DNA structure. Substance structure
	Computer revolution	Solid state physics. Genetic Engineering. Molecular biology. Universal evolutionism
	Non-linear science. Physics of quantum vacuum	Protostructures of reality. Universal cosmological field. Quantum biology

Table. Technological structures

Technological structures (TU)	Years	Key factors	Technology core
		Textile machines	Textiles, pig iron smelting; iron processing, water engine, rope
		Steam engine	Railways, steamships; coal and machine tool industry, ferrous metallurgy
		Electric motor, steel industry	Electrical Engineering, Heavy Engineering, Steel Industry, Inorganic Chemistry, Power Lines
		Internal combustion engine, petrochemicals	Automotive, aircraft, rocketry, non-ferrous metallurgy, synthetic materials, organic chemistry, oil production and refining
		Microelectronics, gasification	Electronics industry, computers, optical industry, astronautics, telecommunications, robotics, gas industry, software, information services
		Quantum vacuum technology	Nano-, bio-, information technologies. Purpose: medicine, ecology, improving the quality of life

Table. Technological cycles and geopolitical crises

Table. Scientific extremes and geoeconomic cycles

Years	Loops	Scientific discoveries
1	2	3
	formation of I TU	1755 - spinning machine (White), 1766 - discovery of hydrogen (G. Cavendish), 1774 - discovery of oxygen (J. Priestley), 1784 - steam engine (J. Watt), 1784 - the discovery of Coulomb's law (O. Coulomb)
	bifurcation between TR I and TR II	1824 - the discovery of the II beginning of thermodynamics (S. Carnot), 1824 - the theory of electrodynamic phenomena (A. Ampere), 1831 - the discovery of electromagnetic induction (M. Faraday), 1835 - the telegraph (S. Morse) , 1841-1849 - the discovery of the law of conservation of energy (R. Mayer, J. Joule, G. Helmholtz)
	bifurcation between II TR and III TR	1869 - the periodic table of elements (D.I.Mendeleev), 1865-1871 - theory of the electromagnetic field (D. Maxwell), 1877-1879 - statistical mechanics (L. Boltzmann, D. Maxwell), 1877 - kinetic theory of matter (L. Boltzmann), 1887 - discovery of electromagnetic radiation and photoelectric effect (G. Hertz)
	beginning of TR III - maturation of III GK	1895 - the discovery of X-rays (V. Roentgen), 1896 - discovery of radioactivity (A. Becquerel), 1898 - the discovery of polonium and radium (P. Curie, M. Skladovskaya-Curie), 1899 - discovery of quanta (M. Planck), 1903 - the discovery of the electron (J. Thomson), 1903 - theory of the photoelectric effect (A. Einstein), 1905 - special theory of relativity (A. Einstein), 1910 - planetary model of the atom (E. Rutherford, N.
	bifurcation between III TU and IV TU IV GK	1924 - the concept of wave-particle dualism (L. De Broglie), 1926 - the opening of the spin (J. Uhlenbeck, S. Goudsmit), 1926 - V. Pauli's prohibition principle, 1926 Apparatus of quantum mechanics (E. Schrödinger, V. Heisenberg), 1927 - the uncertainty principle (V. Heisenberg), 1938 - relativistic quantum theory (P. Dirac), 1932 - discovery of the positron (K. Anderson), 1938 - the discovery of uranium fission (O. Gahn, F. Strassman)
	bifurcation between IV TU and V TU V GK	nuclear energy, astronautics, genetics and molecular biology, semiconductor physics, nonlinear optics, personal computer

Economics of nanotechnology and nanoproducts of textile and light industry

Consider the economy of nanotechnology and nanoproducts as a whole and its segment corresponding to the use of nanotechnology in the production of fibers, textiles and clothing in accordance with the fact that the leading countries are moving from the 5th technological order to the 6th technological order.

Certainly, nano-, bio- and information technologies received their initial development at the end of the 20th century, i.e. at the end of the 20th and at the beginning of the 21st centuries and passed and will develop with even greater practical success in the 6th technological order. This is confirmed by specific irrefutable statistics and forecasts for the development of these areas until the middle of the 21st century (which will be given below).

Figure 2 shows the potential global nanoproduct market, which is projected to be DS1.1 trillion by 2015. As you can see, the largest contribution is made by such nanoproducts as materials (28%), electronics (28%), and pharmaceuticals (17%).

Figure 3 shows the real dynamics and outlook for the share of nanotechnology in the global economy until 2030. In 2015, nanotechnology and its products will amount to ~ 15% of world GDP, then in 2030 it will be 40%.

Figure 4 shows the dynamics of patents registered in the world for nanotechnology. From 1900 to 2005, the number of patents increased 30 times. Moreover, ~ 50% of patents are in the USA.

Figure 2.

Figure 3.

Figure 4.

Figure 5.

In this market of patents, most of it falls on nanomaterials (38%) and nanoelectronics (~ 25%) and nanobiotechnology (~ 13%).

The world structure of distribution of companies engaged in nanotechnology and nanoproducts by country is interesting (Figure 5.)

And this figure shows the dominant role of the United States, which is at times inferior to other developed countries.

In Russia, 200 foreign patents and only 30 Russian ones are registered, which means that our domestic market for nanoproducts is potentially legally conquered by imported nanoproducts, as happened with the market for drugs, cars, audio and video equipment, textiles, clothing, etc. In the period 2009–2015 biennium nanotechnology will develop with an annual growth of 11%, including nanomaterials from 9.027 billion DS to 19.6 billion. DS with an annual increase of 14.7%, nanotools from 2.613 billion DS to 6.8 billion DS.

The volume of the market for goods produced using nanotechnology will grow in the period 2010–2013. with an annual growth of 49% and will amount to 1.6 trillion DS in 4 years.

Global investment in nanotechnology from 2000 to 2006 increased by ~ 7 times; the first place in this indicator is occupied by the USA (~ 1.4 billion DS), Japan (~ 10 billion DS), the EU (12 billion DS), the rest of the world (12 billion DS).

Russia's place in the world economy of the nanoindustry

It should be borne in mind that Russia began to build nanoindustria, to develop nanotechnology with the participation of the state 7-10 years later than the leading countries in this area (USA, EU, Japan, China, India). With this in mind, you should look at the statistics below:

• the share of the Russian Federation in the global technology sector is 0.3%;
• russia's share in the world nanotechnology market is 0.004%;
• by 2008, 30 patents in nanotechnology were registered, i.e. 0.2% of the total number of patents in the world;
• the most developed in the Russian Federation is the production of instruments for the analysis of nanostructures (modern microscopes);
• 95% of produced nanomaterials are used not in industry, but for scientific research;
• among the produced nanomaterials, nanopowders account for the main share (the simplest nanotechnology). The Russian Federation produces 0.003% of nanopowders from world production;
• nanopowders in the Russian Federation are mainly metal oxides (titanium, aluminum, zirconium, cerium, nickel, copper), which make up 85% of all nanopowders;
• carbon nanotubes in the Russian Federation are produced only in experimental batches;

The real contribution of nanotechnology to the world economy is illustrated by the following figures - in 2009, 1015 real nanotechnology products were produced in the world. Investments in the period 2006-2009 increased by 379%, from 212 items of nanoproducts to 1015. Nanotextiles (115 products) occupy a significant place (~ 10%). As in other integral indicators, the leading place is for the USA (540 types of nanoproducts ~ 50%), Southeast Asia (240), EU (154). Russia is not mentioned in these, as in others, statistics on nanotechnology.

Among nanoproducts, colloidal nanosilver in various forms (259 products ~ 22%) takes the leading place, carbon (including fullerenes) - 82 products, titanium dioxide - 50 products.

Fullerenes are currently produced in the world ~ 500 tons per year, single-walled and multi-walled carbon nanotubes ~ 100 tons per year, silicon nanoparticles - 100,000 tons per year, titanium dioxide nanoparticles ~ 5000 tons per year, zinc dioxide nanoparticles 20 tons per year.

World economy of textiles and apparel (brief)

Let's move from the economy of nanotechnology in the world to the economy of the textile and light industry, starting with the general situation in the production of products of these industries, including the production of fibers, without which textiles and much more cannot be produced.

The production of natural and chemical fibers, textiles of all types and products from it for traditional and technical purposes is one of the main sectors of the world economy, constantly occupying a place not lower than 5th in the pool of the most necessary for humans and for technology (it is also for humans) in gross turnover, ahead of the global auto industry, pharmaceuticals, tourism and weapons.

This is a general picture ("in oil"), but the structure (geography, assortment), segments of production and consumption of fibers, textiles and products from it has changed significantly:

• the production of traditional mass textiles, fibers, and clothing has moved to developing countries with cheap labor and soft requirements for the environment and working conditions. China has become the world leader (world shoemaker and tailor);
• the production of innovative products with high added value remained in developed countries;
• the production of fibers used for the production of home, technical, medical and sports textiles has significantly increased and, accordingly, these sectors of the textile economy have taken an important place in the total assortment;
• a significant part of chemical fibers, textiles and clothing is produced using nano-, bio- and information technologies, especially in the case of “smart”, interactive, multifunctional textiles, primarily for protective clothing in the broad sense of the word;
• the most dynamically developing type of textiles has become nonwovens produced by various (mechanical, chemical) technologies.

The most developed textile segments and assortment structure for 2008 are Europe (EU): apparel 37%, home textiles 33%, technical textiles 30%.

Technical textiles in the world add ~ 10-15% a year, and nonwovens are growing by 30%.

In Germany, technical textiles account for 45% of the total textile production, in France 30%, in England 12%.

The EU remains one of the world leaders in the production and export of textiles, in 2008, the EU produced textiles for 203 billion DS, 2.3 million people work in this sector of the economy in 145 thousand companies (the average number of employees in an enterprise is ~ 16 people) and 211 billion DS was produced in textiles with an investment of 5 billion DS.

The tendency of an increase in the share of chemical fibers and a decrease in the share of natural fibers continues: 2007 - chemical fibers 65: 2006 - 62%. Man-made fiber production is moving from the United States and Europe to developing countries.

In 1990, Western Europe and the United States produced 40% of all man-made fibers, and in 2007, only 12%. On the contrary, in 1990, China produced only 8.7% of man-made fibers, and in 2007 55.8% of world production, i.e. became a world leader. In general, the world textile production is growing: in 2007, textiles were produced for 4000 billion DS, and in 2012 it is planned to produce 5000 billion DS.

World production of nanotextiles

2010 - "smart" nano-textiles, produced for 1.13 billion DS.

Technical nano-textiles 2007 - 13.6 billion DS, in 2012 it is planned to produce 115 billion DS.

Medtextile - a significant part is produced by nanotechnology.

World production of medical textiles in 2007 in monetary terms amounted to 8 billion DS. Figure 7 shows the dynamics of growth in the production of medical textiles in the world by years (1995–2010).

Figure 7.

A significant place in the total assortment of textiles is occupied by textiles in products for sports and leisure. In 2008, such textiles accounted for 10% of all textiles produced in the EU, the leader in this sector of the economy is Nike, which produces sports textiles in 2008 for 18.6 billion DS.

The market for clothing with embedded nanoelectronic devices in 2008 was 600 million DS.

Product and technological roadmaps for nano and related high technologies

Recently, through the efforts of politicians, the phrase has become fashionable "Road maps" (for the first time they began to use American politicians "Road Map" at the end of the last 20th century). Taking the well-known concept (Atlas of roads, road Atlas) into service, politicians, scientists, technologists, economists have filled it with a broader meaning, which boils down to the following - the roadmap should define:

• the end point of the movement, i.e. the purpose of the project (state, political, technological, economic, environmental, etc.);
• how will this ultimate goal be achieved (means of achievement: ideas, technologies, investments, institutions, etc.);
• temporary, reference points; intermediate, phased and time to reach the final goal;
• participants in the approach to the goal (scientific schools, corporations, firms, investors);
• what positive effects (technological, economic, consumer, environmental, etc.) have been achieved and what risks (environmental, social, etc.) may arise and which must be prevented.

These issues and requirements for roadmaps are general in nature and apply to forecasts in general and to nanotechnology products.

Of greatest interest are technological product roadmaps, of which there are many in relation to nanotechnology, both at the global level for the world as a whole and for countries developing nanotechnology; roadmaps for leading sectors of the economy (electronics, health care, defense, etc.) have been developed and are being developed.

Technological product roadmaps for nanoproducts of the textile and light industry are being developed abroad, but while they are not holistic, they often differ greatly in the range of products and the time they enter the market, and this is due to the fact that conventional and nanofibers, textiles, and products from it are used in traditional (clothing, footwear, sports and home textiles) and new areas (technology, medicine, cosmetics, architecture, etc.); in other words, the production of nano-textiles, as well as traditional ones, is an intersectoral task, when each field of application sets its own specific requirements and it is extremely difficult to reflect all these features in the roadmap. But we will try to solve this problem to some extent. Roadmaps are not just a plan, a program of some project, they are drawn up for a long period (10-30 years) and take into account the evolution of the main technology (in our case, nanotechnology), but also related to it and necessary for its implementation (in in our case bio-, info- and other high technologies) areas.

Drawing up roadmaps requires deep analysis by specialists of the highest level of various scientific and practical fields (physicists, mathematicians, chemists, materials scientists, psychologists, economists, etc.), since nanotechnology is an interdisciplinary problem. A well-designed roadmap, taking into account the evolution and mutual influence (including synergy) of all related technologies, indicates not only the route, the route of product creation, but its evolution along the road to the final time point.

Roadmaps are not a final, frozen product, but a constantly developing tool that takes into account constant changes in the possibilities of science, technology development, and the growing needs of society and technology.

Roadmaps, as a rule, are the product of the collective creativity of a large group of highly qualified experts or the result of a thorough analysis of the literature, a wide range of sources (scientific articles, patents, reviews, etc.).

The need for roadmaps has arisen and is growing now, since scientific and technological progress is becoming rapid, accelerating, compressing the time lag from an idea to its implementation into a product. But even during this time of the roadmap, new ideas and technologies appear that must be taken into account in the roadmaps.

And since drawing up road maps requires investment and considerable, it is likely that in the near future, investors will demand from the requestor investments and road maps along with a business plan. It should be noted that, unfortunately, in our country they started drawing up roadmaps quite recently, the leader of this area is the State University of Higher School of Economics, which fulfills orders from RosNano in various fields of using nanotechnology.

So far, the branches of the textile and light industry have not become the object of attention of any federal structures (the Ministry of Education and Science, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation), as customers of the technological product roadmap for these industries.

Therefore, the author took the liberty (maybe excessive) and the initiative to draw up a technological roadmap for nanoproducts in the textile and light industries, including nanofibers (chemical industry). The proposed roadmap was compiled on the basis of an analysis of several hundred literary sources (over the past 10-15 years), experience and intuition (as a rule, did not deceive) the author. The roadmap was drawn up in relation to the leading countries in the field of nanotechnology (USA, Germany, England, Scandinavian countries, Japan, China, India), but it highlights products and technologies that are of interest for implementation in Russia.

The author expresses a convincing request of those interested in this undoubtedly subjective picture of the development of nanotechnology in the textile and light industry to send their comments and suggestions, which will allow this picture ("oil") to bring it closer to the realities of today and 10-30 years of the future. Thanks in advance for any criticism.

Initially, a list of keywords was compiled, i.e. a set of nanoproducts most often described in the literature for the following assortment groups:

• protective clothing (in the broadest sense from a variety of dangerous actions), used in various fields (civil, defense, freelance);
• fibers;
• regular casual wear;
• fashionable textiles;
• home textiles;
• sports textiles;
• textiles in medicine;
• textiles in cosmetics;
• textiles in technology:
  • structural composites;
  • geotextile;
  • construction textiles.

When compiling the roadmap, the following important industry features were taken into account:

- multifunctional textile materials of a new generation are produced according to the classical scheme: production of fibers (natural, chemical) - spinning (yarn) - weaving (knitting, weaving, production of nonwovens) - chemical technology (bleaching, dyeing, printing, finishing).

There is no getting away from this classic scheme, the individual phases of which can in rare cases be omitted. But to this necessary long technological chain for the production of fibers, textiles, clothing, technical products with new properties at different stages are added in a combination (often) nano-, bio- and information technologies. The most interesting new properties and effects are achieved precisely when these three high technologies are combined, which synergistically affect each other and the multifunctionality of the material.

A very important remark follows from this position. The classical textile technological chain and its industrial implementation (textile factories) are an indispensable productive platform on which both nano- and bio- and information technologies are mounted. By themselves, they hang in the air and are not an end in themselves, but can only be a seasoning to the main meal. But without these technologies it is impossible to obtain fibers, textiles, clothing with fundamentally new properties.

Recommendations for the production of nanoproducts (fibers, textiles, clothing) should take into account the state and capabilities of domestic textile and light industries, the state of science in this area, the availability of specialists, and not just the need for these products.

It was necessary to decide what products should be classified as nanoproducts. This problem is discussed in the world literature, and it arises in economic assessment and statistics.

As in other industries, all nanoproducts appearing on the market can be divided into two unequal groups:

1. received from "Refined" nanotechnology (“bottom-up”, “top-down”), which corresponds to the definition of nanotechnology as “manipulation of nanoparticles with the formation of a strict ordered structure, with fundamentally new properties due precisely to the nanosize and nanostructure of the macroobject”. This is how wildlife works "cleanly" for the synthesis of proteins, carbohydrates and other biological macro-objects.

   Man-made such nanotechnology is just beginning to emerge and electronics are the pioneers (the transition from micro- to nanoelectronics). There are still no more than 5–10% of such pure nanoproducts.

2. "Nanoproducts" (quotes can be removed with certain reservations), obtained using nanoparticles and nanoobjects produced by "pure" nanotechnology (carbon nanotubes, metal oxides, aluminosilicates, nanoemulsions, nanodispersions, nanofoams, etc.).

   There are many such products referred to as nanofibers, nanotextiles, nano-clothing. They can be called products using elements of nanotechnology. Moreover, they acquire useful new and improved properties.

Below are product kits for nanoproducts of the main types of assortment.

Figure 8.

1. (MT) - Medtextile
2. (TT) - Technical textiles
3. (ZT) - Protective textiles
4. (DT) - Home textiles
5. (ST) - Sports textiles
6. (MDT) - Fashionable textiles

Initially, the list of key nanoproducts included more than 100 items of various assortments, significance, advancement (technological, commercial, social). By selection and aggregation by purpose and technology, 50 nanoproducts remained on the list.

PRODUCT SET FOR THE NANOFIBER GROUP

(the number of stars characterizes the importance of the product for the Russian economy)

1 **** / ** - Electrospinning nanofibers;

2 **** / ** - Ultra-strong nanofibers, composite, filled with nanoparticles for composite structural materials;

3 / * Nanofibers and products providing weight distribution for pilots (drivers) and passengers of various types of transport;

4/ - Conductive fibers and products for replacing copper cables in cars and other types of transport;

5 **** / - Carbon nanofibers (in composites, in medicine, sports equipment);

6/ - Dyeable nano-filled polyolefin fibers;

7/ ** - Genetically modified spider silk;

8 / * - Cellulose of microbiological origin;

9 *** / * - Genetically modified hemp;

PRODUCT SET FOR THE GROUP "PROTECTIVE TEXTILE FROM THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT"

1 **** / ** - Textiles and clothing that regulate the temperature and humidity conditions in the underwear;

2/ * - Textiles and clothing that absorb, store and transform the energy of the body;

3 **** / * - Clothes that prevent and protect against harmful external influences (toxic substances, radiation, biological weapons);

4 / *** - Fire resistant fabric and clothing;

5/ - Home textiles, clothing that absorb harmful and unpleasant odors;

6 **** / *** - Antibacterial, anti-virus textiles;

7/ ** Thermal underwear (bed, underwear);

8 **** / - Camouflage (from night vision devices) textiles, clothing and shelters for equipment;

9 **** / **** - Bulletproof clothing;

10/ - Water and oil repellent textiles;

11 *** / ** - Repellent textiles and clothing that protect against blood-sucking insects.

PRODUCT SET FOR TECHNICAL TEXTILE GROUP

1/ * - Textiles with piezoelectric properties;

2 / * - Extensible sensor fibers, textile for flexible displays and nano-clothing;

3/ * - Textiles for solar panels;

4/ * - Geotextile monitoring the condition of the soil and strengthening the soil;

5 / * - Textiles for nanocomposite (transparent) roofs and other architectural coatings;

6 **** / - Filters for water and air made of nanofibers and non-woven materials;

PRODUCT SET FOR MEDICAL AND COSMETIC TEXTILE GROUP

1/ ** - Water-repellent, antiseptic, antimicrobial textiles and clothing for medical staff and patients;

2/ * - Clothes that monitor the state of the body (pulse, pressure, weight);

3 / * - Fibers and textiles for artificial muscles, blood vessels, joints, cartilage, lungs, liver, kidneys, heart valves, suture material, for implants with shape memory;

4/ - New generation healing wound dressings (reconstructive surgery) with controlled release of drugs and their targeted delivery to damaged tissue and organs;

5/- Anesthetic, hemostatic textiles for dentistry;

6/- Medical cosmetic masks, as a depot of medicines and cosmetics;

7 / * - Protective textiles for radiology;

8/ * - Bioplatforms from textiles for reconstructive surgery (implants);

9 / * - Filters made of nanofibers for respirators, hemodialysis machines and transfusion devices;

10 *** / ** - Hygienic textiles based on nanofibers, nanobiocides;

11/ - Medical underwear, as a depot of medicines;

12 ** / * - Fibers for bone regeneration based on composites;

PRODUCT KIT FOR SPORT TEXTILE GROUP

1/ - Composites based on carbon nanofibers for sports equipment (Formula 1, bobsled, boats, skis, spears, etc.);

2/ - Sensory clothing for monitoring the condition of the athlete's body during training;

3/ - Suits for swimmers with high hydrodynamic properties;

PRODUCT KIT FOR HOME TEXTILE GROUP

1 * / - - Panels from textiles, changing the pattern and color according to the program (color music);

2 * / - - Ergonomic textile mattresses;

3 *** / - - Antimicrobial bed linen and bath accessories;

ELECTRONIC (TOUCH) TEXTILE

1 *** / - - Clothes with integrated audio and video equipment, communicating with external receivers and transmitters;

2 * / - - Electronic textiles for flexible displays and for navigation systems;

PRODUCT SET FOR FASHION TEXTILE GROUP

1/ - Textile "chameleon" (thermochromic);

2 * / - - Luminous textiles;

3/ - Scented textiles;

(out of 50 products, 31 are needed, and 18 can be produced if conditions are created for this).

Were evaluated according to the following 18 indicators (see the questionnaire on the example of "Wound coverings"), proposed by the author.

1. Product name New generation wound dressings with controlled release and targeted drug delivery
2. Assortment group (groups) Medtextile
3. Fundamental scientific basis Mass transfer of nanoparticles in the body; mechanism of healing of pathogenic tissues at the cellular and molecular levels
4. Technology (s) Nano and biotechnology
5. Applications Healing of wounds, burns, pressure ulcers, ulcers, oncological neoplasms of near occurrence (skin, mucous membranes, neck, gynecology, etc.)
6. Global presence One of the important directions in reconstructive surgery and in combined methods of cancer treatment
7. Presence in the Russian market Present
8. Is it produced in Russia produced under the trade name "Koletex"
9. Can it be produced in Russia (problems) Expansion of production is required in accordance with growing needs
10. Do I need to produce in Russia Yes
11. Will it be competitive Of course, it has no analogues in the world yet.
12. Do I need to import to Russia Not
13. Is it possible to produce in cooperation with other countries Yes
14. Risks (economic, etc.) from production and use Minimum, because targeted drug delivery
15. Participants Production of LLC "Koleteks", LLC "Tekstilprogress" IAR
16. Participants. Research institutes and other research organizations Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, Ministry of Social Development of the Russian Federation, Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences, universities, leading medical institutions of the Russian Federation
17. The need to train specialists In textile and related universities
18. "Pure" nanotechnology (NT) or elements of NT Elements of Nano and Biotechnology

As you can see, the questionnaire offers many indicators that must be taken into account for drawing up a product roadmap for the world and the Russian Federation. It would be possible to offer more parameters for evaluating each product, which would make it difficult for experts to work with it, and would not provide additional information. Here is a list of the most significant and relevant products, there are 50 of them.Each product has fractions / , where in the numerator is the need for the RF, and in the denominator is the possibility of production, the quantity * characterizes the level of significance of the factor.

Below, in the figures, the 6 most significant groups of products are presented by their purpose and their need for the economy of the Russian Federation and the possibility of their production in the Russian Federation.

An analysis of numerous sources shows that the most significant for Russia are the following groups of textile nanoproducts (the importance decreases in the row): medical textiles, protective textiles, technical textiles, home textiles, sports textiles, fashion textiles.

According to the possibilities of manufacturing these products in the Russian Federation, they are ranked in the following descending row: technical textiles, protective textiles, medical textiles, home textiles, sports textiles, fashion textiles.

Of course, the given estimates are averaged in each group, where within different products may differ significantly in importance and production capabilities. The difference between them (the significance and the possibility of production) will have to be compensated for by imports, which is already happening now, when this difference is huge.

In the questionnaire, for example, the characteristic data of one product from the group of medical textiles "Wound coatings of the new generation" are given. Such a detailed description was compiled for all selected nanoproducts of the main assortment groups.

In Figure 1-5, the products are graphically located in five groups for each in the coordinates "need / opportunity", which allows you to make a decision on the recommendation of specific products in three areas:

• produce;
• to purchase technology and to produce it;
• purchasing products.

Picture. The ratio of needs and opportunities to produce in the Russian Federation for the Medical Textile group

Picture. The ratio of needs and opportunities to produce in the Russian Federation for the "Protective Textile" group

Picture. The ratio of needs and ability to produce in the Russian Federation for the Nanovolokna group

Picture. The ratio of needs and opportunities to produce in the Russian Federation for the group "Technical textiles"

Picture. The ratio of needs and opportunities to produce in the Russian Federation for the Fashion Textile group

Picture. The ratio of needs and opportunities to produce in the Russian Federation for the group "Home Textile"

Picture. The ratio of needs and opportunities to produce in the Russian Federation for the "Electronic (touch) textiles" group

Of course, these recommendations for federal authorities, business and individual manufacturers of fibers, textiles and clothing are purely expert assessment, however, they are based on the study of a very large array of foreign data (more than 1000 foreign publications over the past 5-10 years by specialists from the USA, Germany, England, Japan, China, India), as well as domestic sources.

In case of interest shown by interested organizations and personalities for each product, in accordance with the proposed questionnaire, it is possible to present the characteristics of this product, as well as offer technologies for its production, which exist in Russia (very few) or they need to be developed or purchased abroad and adapt to our conditions. Or, finally, purchase this product on the global market.

Interested organizations and individuals are absolutely free in their further actions. Any system of strategic planning, including Foresight, can offer nothing else. Then the initiative of the state, business, scientists, technologists begins.

G.E. Krichevsky
Professor, Doctor of Technical Sciences,
Honored. scientist of the Russian Federation

KRICHEVSKY German Evseevich, Professor, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Honored Worker of the Russian Federation, UNESCO expert, Academician of RIA and MIA, Laureate of the State Prize of the ITS

Graduated from the Moscow Textile Institute. A.N. Kosygin with a degree in Chemical Technology and Equipment for Finishing Production, in 1961 he defended his Ph.D. thesis, and in 1974 - his doctoral dissertation on the problems of chemistry and physical chemistry of the use of active dyes. From 1956 to 1958 he worked at the Moscow Finishing Factory named after I. Ya.M. Sverdlov as the head of the chemical station. He worked as a UNESCO expert in Burma (1962) and India (1968). 1980 to 1990 headed the department "Chemical technology of fibrous materials" at the Moscow Institute of Technology. A.N. Kosygin and the Industry Laboratory of the Ministry of Legislation established at this department. In 1992 he moved to RosZITLP for the position of head. Department of Textile Coloring and Design and directs it to this day. Professor G.E. Krichevsky is also the President of the Russian Union of Textile Chemists and Colorists, General Director of the NPO Textilprogress RIA, Editor-in-Chief of the Textile Chemistry magazine.

For his great contribution to Russian science, professor G.E. Krichevsky awarded the title of Honored Scientist of the Russian Federation; in 2008 by the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation he was awarded the Order of Honor.

 

It might be helpful to read:

• Presentation "Strong and weak electrolytes" presentation of a lesson for an interactive whiteboard in chemistry (grade 9) on the topic Presentation on the use of electrolytes in medicine;
• Presentation on the topic: "Acids - as electrolytes" Presentation on the use of electrolytes in medicine;
• Presentation vladimir dal presentation for a reading lesson on the topic Literary presentation for grade 4;
• More about telephoto lenses;
• Creativity of Korney Ivanovich Chukovsky presentation for a reading lesson (grade 2) on the topic;
• Presentation on the topic "Biography of Paustovsky. Presentation on the topic of Paustovsky biography;
• Migratory and wintering birds presentation Migratory and wintering birds presentation for children;
• Traumatic brain injury Presentation on the topic of closed traumatic brain injury;