Prospects for the development of the Internet. Marketing communications on the Internet Modern condition and development trends in the Internet

Already today the Internet It takes a very important place in a person. Currently connect to Internet You can via communication satellites, radio channels, cable TV, telephone, cellular communication, electric pipe. The worldwide network has become an integral part of the life of people in different countries. Thanks the Internet We have great opportunities for us: here we work and rest, we are looking for useful information, we learn what is happening in the world, we communicate and sometimes even find our soulam.

According to the Fund's public opinion, in the fall of 2010, the share of Internet users among the adult population of the country is 40% (or 46 million people). At the same time, 32 million people can be attributed to the active part of the audience. Two years ago (!) Approximately the same coverage was a monthly Internet audience (31.7 million).

For what purpose, the Russians go to the network, you can learn from the study of the WTCIOM, published in April 2010. It is interesting that among the Russians connected to the Internet most of all those who are needed for work or study (58%). The number of Russians, which the Internet is needed as a means of rewriting (51%). Among other arguments using the Internet - expansion of the horizons and the receipt of news (49 and 48%, respectively). The share of Russians using the Internet is growing in order to communicate with other people (from 20% in 2006 to 39% in the current year), listen to music, watch movies, read books (from 20 to 38%), look for like-minded people (from 9 up to 28%), play (from 11 to 21%). An important factor is to make purchases via the Internet (12%).

By 2010, the Internet became the most dynamically growing information agency In the history of mankind: the number of his users reached 1.5 billion people, which allows us to speak not only about the prospects, but also about the presence of a qualitatively new information and communicative reality, in the ethous of which several stages can be distinguished:

1. Web 1.0 - the content of Internet Resources forms a relatively small group of professionals, and the overwhelming majority of ordinary users consume this content;

2. Web 2.0 - the content of the content is actively included by the network users, each of which can be both a consumer and the manufacturer of the content of sites;

3. Web 3.0 users not only generate content, but they themselves are certified (noted, the fact that they deserves their like-minded people) are systematized in accordance with their taste preferences.

It is worth paying attention to that every subsequent stage of development does not replace the previous one, but only complements it with new capabilities of communication. Thus, on the stage of web 1.0, for example, it is not possible to say not as historically suspended technology, but as a phenomenon is quite modern.

Since the creation of the Internet, the project has developed rapidly and spread throughout the world, penetrating all spheres of public life and radically changing our lifestyle, search and work with information.

It is easy to draw conclusions about network proliferation trends, if by 2000 the number of Internet users has approximately only 360 million, and today there are already 2.7 billion users in the world.

Among the many probable tendencies of the future Internet, experts believe that the most important and pronounced of them are as follows:

1. The global network management will remain at the same level.
2. The greatest growth of the Internet market will occur outside countries with high income and developed economies.
3. QWERTY keyboard will cease to be the main interface of human interaction with the Internet.
4. To replace the fixed board for access services, there will be completely different schemes for the monetization of participation of the worldwide network virtual life.

One of social factors It is the growing "Internet generation" - adolescents, since childhood acquaintances with the Internet. In this regard, their model of behavior and socialization will differ from the current one.

In addition, scientists and various analytical agencies allocate the four most possible scenarios for the development of the future Internet.

The first of these is that the Internet will "grow" around the world and comes to the most remote corners of the globe, and the access to the network will be carried out mainly from gadgets (mobile devices, tablets).

According to the second scenario, cybercrime will reach the highest level that creates a threat to the Internet market, which will lead to the creation of analogue networks providing absolute safety on a fee basis.

The third scenario implies the development of events in the economy, according to which some countries will be forced to lead the policy of protectionism, which will "strad up" the Internet and will lead to a slowdown in the pace of introducing new technologies and network distribution speed.

The fourth scenario contains the idea that the popularity of the Internet will reach the critical point, and the World Wide Web will be overloaded, that is, it will not be able to cope with the flow of information due to existing restrictions.

US Research Organization Pew Research Center predicts that by 2020 the virtual environment will be even more negative - to contribute to the emergence of new harmful habits; People will provide more and more personal information. In addition, a certain group of people existing outside the network will appear in order to show the status of "outside the system", disobedience of technological changes.

Thus, at this stage, the development of the network is endless. Unfortunately, we can only guess what nature will have a future Internet. After all, 48% of experts doubt the possibilities of people to control technologies in the future. Unfortunately, this opinion is not unreasonable. With the advent of the latest devices and technologies, all new prerequisites, justifying the opinions of analysts become notable. Further improvement of the public Internet network, many are associated with the introduction of the concept of semantic web, which would allow people and computers to more effectively interact in the process of creating, classifying and processing information.

internet network computer semantic

Introduction

Today, many people discover the existence of global networks uniting computers worldwide into a single information space called the Internet. From a technical point of view of the Internet - this is a combination of transnational computer networks operating on various protocols connecting all sorts of computers, physically transmitting data on all available types of lines - from twisted pairs and telephone wires to fiber and satellite channels.

In the Free Access Archives of the Internet, you can find information on almost all areas of human activity, starting with new scientific discoveries Before the weather forecast for tomorrow.

The purpose of this work describe the emergence and development of the Internet.

In the theoretical part of this term paper The global Internet network is considered, and the main thing, the trend of its development.

The relevance of the topic of research is obvious. It is due to the fact that the Internet persistently enters our lives. Today, even the creators of the electronic web and the active users of this network often weakly represent its borders, the content, degree of ordering, as well as the pace and scale of development. Study of the development trends and is the goal of this course work.

In the practical part of the course work, it was solved about the implementation of bakeries of its products through three outlets: two bakers and cafes (option No. 15).

When writing a course work was used the following programs: Microsoft Office Word - 2007; Microsoft Office Excel - 2007.

The work is made on the PC with the following characteristics:

Intel (R) Celeron (R) CPU 3.20GHz 3.20GHz, 1.50 GB of RAM Expansion of physical

1.Toresheetic part

1.1 Internet history

The idea of \u200b\u200bcreating the Internet was originated in the military department of the United States of America. The goal of the project was to develop such a network that can ensure uninterrupted data transfer between decentralized military computers.

In September 1969, a group of students from the University of California in Los Angeles under the leadership of Professor Leonard Cleneck created the world's first computer network, connecting two computing complex with a cable length of 4.5 meters.

In October of the same year, the first attempt was made to the remote connection to the computer, which was at the Research Center of the University of Stanford, from another computer, which stood at the University of California in Los Angeles. As a result of tests that continued all autumn, two more nodes were connected to this network: California University of Santa Barbara and University of Utah.

By the end of 1969, these four nodes were combined into the first configuration of the Arpanet network, which became the prototype of the Internet. The name of the ARPANET network comes from the name of its founder Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA - management of prospective research programs USA).

This network was based on a method for grouping information in packages. The theory of packet data transfer data was developed by L. Kleinokom in the mid-1960s. In parallel with it, the group of employees of the RAND company was engaged in the development of packet switching data (the name of this company is derived from the R & D abbreviation, i.e. "research and development").

The essence of the developed method consists in transmitting a data packet in the so-called cluster of a large number of computers connected to the network. In addition to the transmitted information, the header containing the address of the recipient is connected to the package. The computer received such a package checks the belonging of the transmitted information to any of its clients and forwards unclaimed packets to the next computer to which they can belong. After requesting the corresponding computer, the package is revealed and a message is retrieved from it.

Package delivery is managed by a set of rules that define the method of transmitting and formatting data transmitted through a computer network.

One of the main results of the development of Arpanet, which has passed on the Internet, has become the creation of TCP / IP network protocols. TCP / IP (TRANSMISSION CONTOCOL PROTOCOL / INTERNET PROTOCOL) - a family of protocols that determine how the data is divided into packets for transmission over the network and how applications can send packages. TCP (TRANSMISSION CONTOCOL) - a transport protocol that determines the size of the transmitted data package and conducting a thin setting of transmission parameters. IP (Internet Protocol) is the main network protocol that implements the firewall.

In 1984, the Milnei network was allocated from the Arpanet network (Milnei), and the ARPANET network, in the future renamed Internet, has become a network of educational purposes.

In the mid-1980s, monitoring access to the Internet was carried out by the National Science Foundation (National Science Foundation - NSF) and other US government agencies. Network traffic belonged to the US government and financed them. (Traffic- information transmitted over the Internet). In April 1995, the US government refused to control the Internet in favor of independent administrative councils.

Today, the functioning of basic communications is funded from various funds, and issues related to technical supportare solved by a number of public committees and councils. One of the most significant is the Internet Engineering Task Force - IETF Engineering Committee. IETF- Public Committee, in which scientists and experts solve technical problems and issues of further network development. Another organization that has a significant impact on the further development of the network is the Internet architecture board (Internet Architecture Board- IAB). IAB is a voluntary organization consisting of a group of invited experts.

There are national and international segments of the Internet, which are funded from various sources And the management of which is carried out by their own administration. IAB and IETF solutions are published on the Internet in the form of documents "Requests for Comments and Offers" (Request for Comment - RFC). These RFC documents are stored on many internet nodal computers.

1.2 Global Internet Network

The Internet, which has become a symbol of a new stage of development of information technology at the turn of the centuries, has a significant impact on the work of specialists in various fields of human activity, including the work of humanitarian specialists. Apparently, the role of the Internet in their professional activity Will just increase. In this regard, the knowledge of the main network capabilities and practical skills on the Internet are of great importance for specialists.

the Internetit is a global computer network covering the whole world and containing a gigantic amount of information on any subject affordable on a commercial basis for everyone. In addition to obtaining purely information services through the Internet, you can make purchases and commercial transactions, pay bills, order tickets for different kinds Transport, book places in hotels, etc.

The Internet consists of a variety of local, territorial and global networks belonging to various companies and enterprises working on a wide variety of protocols connecting all sorts of computers that physically transmitting data on wired, cable, satellite communication channels and radio frequency.

The Internet is an association of more than 40 thousand different local networks, for which it has been named Network network.Each local network is called nodeor sitebut entityproviding the work of the site, - provider.The site consists of several computers - servers,each of which is designed to store information specific type and in a specific format. Each site and server on the site have unique names by which they are identified on the Internet.

To connect to the Internet, the user must conclude a contract for servicing with one of the providers in its region. After that, any work on the Internet begins with a connection with the provider's website, communication with the provider can be organized or by switching telephone channel using a modem, or with the help of a permanent selected channel. In the first case, the provider connection is performed using a modem and remote access tools, in the second - simply by calling the corresponding program to work on the Internet. In both cases, after connecting to the provider, the user gets access to all sites and computers on the Internet. When the user opening up before the user depends on the terms of the contract concluded with the provider. Potentially, the Internet provides general-purpose information service.

ISP providers (Internet Service Provider) have the so-called POP presence points (Point of Presence), where local users are connected. The provider may have POP presence points in several cities. Each city has similar modem pools to which local clients of this provider call in this city. The provider usually rents fiber-optic lines from the telephone company to connect all its presence points. Large communication companies have their own high populic channels.

The Internet is not a set of direct connections between computers. For example, if two computers on different continents are exchanged on the Internet, this does not mean that there is one direct or virtual connection between them. The data they send to each other are divided into packages, and even in one communication session, different packages of one message can pass by different routes. Whatever routes have moved data packets, they will still achieve the destination and will be collected together into a solid document. At the same time, the data sent later may come before, but it does not prevent the procedure properly, since each package has its markings.

Thus, the Internet represents a "space", within which continuous circulation of data is carried out. In this sense, it can be compared with television and radio, although there is an obvious difference at least that on the air no information is stored, and on the Internet it moves between computers constituting network nodes,and for some time is stored on their hard drives.

As the organizations expands, computer networks are growing, intended for automation and information support for major business processes. In addition to the possibilities of the complexation of various computers in local networks Within the same building, there is a need to combine individual LANs within the area, country or continent (in the case of large corporations - the world), using heterogeneous communication channels.

Thus, the global network is a set of LAN and individual computers separated by relatively large distances and connected at different points.

1.3 Internet Development Trends

In order to better present the size of the Internet, the prevalence and volumes of the data with which the Internet has the main development trend, some statistical data are given. They represent gross assessments, because the Internet has no single owner and almost no ordered, systematic, centralized statistics.

The development trends of the Internet are such that the number of Internet users is growing with each hour, and the global network itself changes and is improved by a very rapid pace.

Today's processes occurring in the online market, which is already estimated at 3 trillion. Dol. will undoubtedly affect the development of the world's world. Among the many trends affecting technological progress in general and the Internet in particular, experts consider the most important following:

Global network management will remain at the current level and will not undergo noticeable changes;

The greatest growth of the Internet market will occur outside countries with high income and developed economies;

The QWERTY keyboard ceases to be the main interface of human interaction with the Internet;

To replace the fixed board for access services, there will be completely different schemes for the monetization of participation in the virtual life of the World Network.

However, some important aspects cannot be taken into account - let's say, the emergence of revolutionary technologies, the evolution of communication networks (with the involvement of public investment or without them), the interest of users to multifunctional Internet applications, etc. Obviously, such uncertainty factors give reason to talk about different events development options The most likely experts consider four.

According to the first scenario, the Internet will reach the smallest settlements in all corners of the globe, will cease to be an autonomous space separated from real Mirawill become a center for the provision of services globally, and access to the Internet will be carried out mainly from mobile devices, but it does not at all mean a complete pc.

The second scenario is less optimistic, and the reason is cybercrime. Many underestimate this factor, but now, according to a recent Symantec report, 65% of Internet users have been victims of various types of attacks - from a banal infection of computers with viruses to the corner of personal accounts and credit card data. The most exposed to Attacks China, Brazil and India, i.e., it is those regions that are expected to be the main growth of the Internet market. According to Cisco experts, when the situation comes to a certain critical point, a secure analogs with access to them can appear near the worldwide network.

The third scenario of the development of events in the medium term suggests that due to the unstable economic situation, individual countries will conduct protectionist policies, which will be a kind of brake for the e-business and will lead to a slowdown in the pace of introducing new technologies and reduce the spread of the Internet.

Specialists consider and the fourth possible option - the popularity of the Internet will increase so much that the worldwide network simply cannot cope with the flow of information due to the existing technical limitations.

Accordingly, there will be changes in business models implemented on the Internet. Specialists predict the shift of emphs from providing access to the network by subscribing to indirect payment, especially for content and software. In addition, traditional Internet services are expected to be outstanding with specialized compact applications, less than the search or moderated for the user's needs at this particular point.

The need to run applications on the local PC will gradually retreat - it will be enough to have a browser supporting modern standards.

In the coming years, the share of media on the Internet will continue to increase mainly due to the user content: network video traffic is growing annually by 60%, and over the next 5-8 years its volume will multiply 100 times. Already very soon we can expect the rapid development of business models, the purpose of which is to obtain profits from resources filled with content created by users.

The possibility of online participation in the activities of companies has significantly changed the structure and essence of entrepreneurship, the business environment itself and, obviously, will eventually have an increasing impact on the development of technologies, economic indicators and user demand.

According to European experts, in the coming years, the role and degree of participation in the global economy of small enterprises will change, which have already received advertising opportunities on the network, but at the same time significantly exceed the latter in the flexibility and reactivity of business models.

The basis of a competitive struggle will change: from sales - to access, from direct transactions with customers - to multilateral interaction platforms, from competition in prices, quality or opportunities - to innovative products, services and means of communications available on subscription in special service packages. In the long run, the products of the future are likely to begin to develop, promote and order as services, especially when the components of the "Wireless Devices" will interact.

Conclusion

The Internet penetrates deeper into the life of a particular person, for several years millions of people have not been able to submit their lives without e-mail, news sites, communication with messengers, audio and video services, without forums and blogs and other very useful things. The time comes when the funds used earlier are no longer suitable.

The Internet is developing, and this process is no longer possible to stop, since the network is decentralized, and the shutdown of one segment cannot withdraw it from equilibrium. Internet provides unique opportunities for most people. This is the search for the right information, communication, communication with people around the world, the purchase of goods in e-stores, training and just leisure. Each month, more and more users are connected to the network, does not fall behind in this component and the runet is the Russian Internet segment. According to forecasts of most foreign companies, the most promising IT technology market in the world is Russia and China. This is confirmed by the fact that all leading companies (ATI, NVIDIA, GIGABYTE, etc.) in the sphere computer technology Open Russian-speaking sites where constantly updated information is provided.

Positive trends in the development of the Internet and the huge audience of users have turned the network into the phenomenon of a global scale, which has a significant impact on the development of civilization in general.

2. Practical part

1.2 General Characteristics Task

The bakery sells its products through three outlets: two bakers and cafes.

1. Create a report on the sale of goods in one day according to the form below (Fig. 1) and make calculations by the column "amount, rub." With the calculation of the outcome of sales points.

2. To form a final table (Fig. 2) by performing consolidation by category, the results are presented in graphical form.

3. Create a consolidated table by completing the data grouping of bakery products (white bread, black bread), for all shopping points.

Summary of the sale of goods in one day
Name	Number, pcs.	price, rub.	Amount, rub.	Type of product
Boolean number 1.
Urban				white bread
				black bread
Borodinsky				black bread
Baton White.				white bread
				white bread

Boolean number 2.
Urban				white bread
				black bread
				white bread
				white bread

Cafe "XXI Century"
				white bread
Baton White.				white bread
				black bread
				white bread

Fig.1 Summary of the sale of goods in one day

Name	Number, pcs.	price, rub.	Amount, rub.	Type of product
Urban				white bread
				black bread
Borodinsky				black bread
				white bread
Baton White.				white bread
				white bread
				white bread

Fig. 2. Final table

2.2 Description of the problem solving algorithm

Run the MS Excel tabular processor.
Create a book with the name "Bakery".
On the work sheet 1 MS Excel, we create a table "Summary of the sale of goods in one day" according to the form (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1 Location of the Table "Summary of the sale of goods in one day"

In the column "Amount, rub." Calculates: In the D4 cell we enter the formula: \u003d Production (B4: C4) and copy it into the cell D5 - D8 (Fig. 2).
Calculate the results of sales points: in the B9 cell we enter the formula: \u003d amounts (B4: B8) and copy it to C9 and D9 cells (Fig.2)

Fig. 2 "Summary of the sale of goods in one day"

Similar operations produce two other trading points.
In the column "Total" we carry out calculations: in the B22 cell we enter the formula: \u003d amounts (B9: B15: B21) and copy it to C22 and D22 cells and get a fully completed report on the sale of products in one day (Fig.3).

Fig. 3 "Summary of the sale of goods in one day"

On a sheet 1, we form a final table by performing consolidation by category: first we first create a table cap for a given form. Then activate the A3 cell and go to the data menu, select consolidation. In the column "Function" indicate the amounts. In the column, the link on the sheet 1 highlight the desired area for each trading point and call the "Add" function. We note the Count "The Value of the Left Column" and click "OK". Count "Price" fill in the source data from the form provided in the condition. To fill in the graph "Amount, rub." In the D3 cell, we specify the formula: \u003d Production (B3: C3) and copy it into the D4-D9 cell. To calculate in the "Total" column, we indicate in the B10 cell formula: \u003d sums (B3: B9) and copy it to C10 and D10 cells. We get a fully formed table. We regrift the final table according to the species order of bakery products to create a pivot table (Fig. 4).

Fig. 4 "Final Table"

We call the "Master of Charts" and build a histogram (Fig.5).

Fig.5 "The final diagram"

11. On a sheet 2, create a consolidated table, performing a grouping of data from bakery products (white bread, black bread) for all outlets. To do this, we create the form of a table and copy the data of the types of products with a rearranged summary table. Then make calculations in the columns "Total" for each group of bakery products. To do this, first in the cell B10 indicate the formula: sums (B5: B9) and copy it to C10 and D10 cells, then in the B16 cell indicate the formula: sums (B14: B15) and copy it to C16 and D16 cells. We receive a consolidated table, made by grouping data by type of bakery products (white bread, black bread) for all outlets (Fig. 6).

Fig.6 "Summary Table"

List of used literature

Informatics. Basic course. 2nd Edition / Ed. S. V. Simonovich. - SPb.: Peter, 2004. - 640 s: Il.
Informatics in the economy: studies. Manual / Ed. prof. B.E. Odenty, prof. A.N. Romanova. - M.: The university textbook, 2008. - 478 p.
Computer science for economists: textbook / under total. ed. V.M. Matyushka. - M.: Infra-M, 2007. - 880 p. - (RUDN textbooks).
Informatics: Methodical instructions for the implementation of the course work for independent work of students II (first higher education). - M.: The university tutorial, 2006. - 60 c.
Informatics: Tutorial / B.V. Sable [and others] .- ed. 3rd, addition. and recreated. - Rostov N / D: Phoenix, 2007. - 446 s .- (Higher education).
Computer science: textbook / under total. Ed. A.N. Danchula. - M.: Publishing House Rags, 2004. - 528 p.
Stepanov A.N. Computer science: Textbook for universities. 4th ed. - SPb.: Peter, 2006. - 684 p.: Il.
Internet development trends: http://news.babr.ru/?ide\u003d89856 (04/25/11)
Economic Informatics: Tutorial / Ed. V.P. Kosareeva and L.V. Eremin. - M.: Finance and Statistics, 2002.- 592 C: IL.
Economic informatics: studies. Manual / N.I. Savitsky. - M.: Economist, 2004.

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The number of Internet users worldwide has reached 2.4 billion users around the world. By 2020, according to forecasts of the US National Science Foundation, the number of Internet users will increase to 5 billion. The Internet will become more distributed geographically. The greatest increase in users in the next 10 years will occur at the expense of residents of developing countries in Africa (now not more than 7%), Asia (about 19%) and the Middle East (Middle East) (about 28%). To compare now more than 72% of residents North America Use the Internet. This trend means that the Internet by 2020 will not only reach remote places around the world, but also supports much more languages \u200b\u200band not only the ASCII encoding system familiar to us. According to the results of the study of the RBC.ReSearch agency, the level of Internet penetration in Russia in 2018 will exceed 80%.

Information technologies begins the era of the software.

Now we are experiencing the stage of the intellectualization of "iron" when software It becomes more important than the equipment itself. Market
Iron will decline. Until 2018, an increase in 2.1% is predicted mainly due to the growth of the PC market (it will grow by 7.5%) and
peripheral devices (printers, scanners, etc.). Xxi century is a century wireless technology.

The data transfer rate and bandwidth increases.
To date, the speed of data transfer in good computers
- 40 Gb / s. For example, 4 volumes of the novel "War and Peace" L. Tolstoy is about 40 Mbps, i.e. 1000 times less! You can transmit these 4 volumes less than 1 microsecond. But, in the near future it will be possible to transmit data at the speed of light. Today there is Wigik technology, which allows several kilometers to transmit information at a distance of 7 Gb / s at a distance. The method of encoding information at the physical level.

Also with bandwidth. According to Cisco, today at the same time in Skype, there are more than 35 million users, on Facebook - over 200 million, 72 hours of video are downloaded every minute on YouTube. By 2015, the number of devices on the network was twice as high than the population of the planet, with something about 80% of this traffic will be video traffic. Images and video files, exchange that constantly happens in the World Wide Web, require higher bandwidth. Users will communicate and share information through video and votes in real time.

Semantic Web.

We are legitimately moving towards the "semantic Internet", in which information is given exactly a certain meaning, which allows computers to "understand" and process it at the semantic level. Today, computers work on the syntactic level, at the level of signs, they read and process information on external features. The term "semantic web" was first introduced by Sir Tim Berners-Lee (one of the inventors of the World Wide Web) in the journal Scientific American. Semantic Web will make it possible to find information on the search: for example, "Find information about animals using sound location, but not born with a dolphin."

New transmission objects.

Thanks to the development of new technologies, it will be possible to transfer through computer networks that it used to be impossible. For example - the smell. The machine analyzes the molecular composition of the air at one point and transmits this data over the network. At another point of the network, this molecular composition, i.e. The smell is synthesized. The prototype of such a device has already released the American company Mint Foundry, it is called Olly, until he entered the free sale. However, we will soon be able to see the embodiment of these opportunities in everyday life.
The Internet will be a network of things, not just computers.
Today there are already 700 million computers in the Internet. Every year the user has the number of devices that go to the network. IP addresses are needed for the operation of household appliances.

With the new architecture of computer networks, the Era of "Internet-Things" will come. One of the nearest developments - this is "smart dust" - Sensors scattered in large areas collecting information. The US National Scientific Fund predicts that about billion sensors on buildings, bridges, roads will be connected to the Internet for purposes such as monitoring the use of electricity, to ensure safety, etc. Reflections of the Vinton Graya Surf (American Scientific Mathematics, is considered one of the inventors of the TCP / IP protocol, Google vice-president): "We assume that all the products that you put in the refrigerator are equipped with a special bar code or microchip so, To the refrigerator fixed everything you put in it. In this case, being at the university or at work, you can view this information from your phone, to watch different options for recipes, and the refrigerator would suggest you that it costs today.

If you expand this idea, then it will be approximately the following picture. You go to the store, and while you are there, you call mobile phone "It calls you a refrigerator that advises what it is worth buying." Through your own account, you can feed pets and launch a washing machine.

Robotization of society.

Already today, we know examples of unmanned flying apparatuses, vacuum cleaners, in Japan "work" the police robots - all these technologies perform their functions without human intervention. And every year the penetration of such cars will only increase. One of the unresolved tasks in computational technologies is the problem of recreation of a computer of thinking. However, it is possible to combine the human brain with a cybernetic, computer system. Already today there are similar experiments, when the prosthesis of the legs or hands of a person join the spinal cord. Recall the example of the South African Runner of Oscar Pistorius, since childhood devoid of both legs, but at the competitions overtaking absolutely healthy competitors, thanks to carbon prosthesis. According to experts, the first such "over man", cyberorganism will appear until 2030. It will be physically perfect, resistant to diseases, radiation and extreme temperatures. And at the same time he will have a human brain.
New man's status on the Internet.

The Internet changes human life. The "World Wide Web" becomes a tool for the implementation of household needs: such as shopping, payment communal services and others. The Internet has changed the attitude of a person with the state. Personal communication, personal access to special services will be minimized. Submit documents to university, call an ambulance, write a statement to the police, place a passport - all this is already possible to make an electronically. In this regard, it will become a minimum of anonymity. Luxury to change passwords and start accounts under non-existent names, leave caustic comments under the inches-invisible - most likely it will not become. The login / password to enter the network can be a means of identifying a person, and its real passport data will be tied to it.

Changes in the labor market and education.

The active penetration of network technologies and the Internet will lead to changes in the labor market and in the field of education. Programs attribute people not so much to a specific office as to the computer itself. Employees who perform their work remotely will be more and more. And there will be more and more offices in "Pocket", i.e. Virtual enterprises that exist only on the Internet.

Cyberrafts and cyberwomen.

On the development of Internet technologies and the capabilities of computer networks there is another side of the coin. Malicious worm can be used as espionage, as well as diversions of power plants, airports and other life-supporting enterprises. So, in 2010, the computer worm Stuxnet struck Iran's nuclear facilities, thus dropping the nuclear program of this country for two years ago. The use of a malicious program turned out to be compared with a full-fledged military operation, but in the absence of victims among people. The uniqueness of this program was that for the first time in the history of Kiberatach, the virus physically destroyed the infrastructure. The largest hacker attack in history reduced the data transfer rate throughout the Internet. The target of the attack was the European company SPAMHAUS, engaged in the opposition of spam mailing. The power of DDoS attacks was 300 Gbps, despite the fact that the power of 50 Gb / seconds is enough in order to fail the infrastructure of large financial organization.

Exit the Internet and network technologies into space.
Today the Internet network is planetary scale. On the agenda - interplanetary space, space internet. The International Space Station is connected to the Internet, which significantly speeds up the processes of work and the interaction of the station with the Earth. But the usual establishment of communication with an optical fiber or simple cable, which is very efficient on earthly conditions, is impossible in space. In particular, due to the fact that it is impossible to use in the interplanetary space. The usual TCP / IP protocol (protocol is a special "language" of computer networks for "communication" with each other). Research work on the creation of a new protocol, thanks to which the Internet could function at lunar stations, and on Mars, are conducted. So, one of the similar protocols is called Disruption Tolerant Networking (DTN). Computer networks with this protocol have already been applied to the communication of the ISS with the Earth, in particular, photographs of salts were sent through the communication channels, which were obtained in a state of weightlessness.

The development and implementation of all listed trends is possible only after the introduction of a new, more flexible architecture of computer networks. In the whole scientific IT world, this is a question number 1. The most promising technology / architecture of computer networks, which is able to derive from the crisis, is a technology-configurable network technology (Softwere DefinedNetwork). In 2007, the staff of the University of Stanford and Berkeley developed a new "language" of communication of computer networks - OpenFlow Protocol and a new computer networking algorithm - PKS technology. Its basic value is that it allows you to go from the "manual" network management. In modern networks, the management and data transmission functions are combined, which makes control and management is very complex. PKS.- Architecture shares the management process and data transfer process. What opens up the enormous opportunities for the development of Internet technologies, since the PKS does not limit us, withdrawing software to the fore. In Russia, the study of the PKS is engaged in the Center for Computer Networks.

(Computer Network Applied Research Center)

CPIKAs - research project to create technologies and products for computer networks of a new generation in Russia. We develop and implement the latest and promising technologies in the field of computer networks and the Internet, demonstrate and check the effectiveness of these technologies on the tasks of industry and business. Resident IT cluster of the Skolkovo innovation fund.

Trends in the development of computer networks and the Internet

Material prepared specifically for the magazineSkolkovo Review

Today it is impossible to submit our lives without internet and information technology. They firmly entered our lives, significantly simplifying it. With the development of information technologies, we are becoming available to new tools that make the processes familiar to us faster, more convenient, and cheaper. However, those changes that we now see are only the top of the iceberg. Network technologies are located only at the beginning of their growth and truly big innovations are waiting for us ahead. So, what evolution for the coming decades can be predicted today, seeing, in which direction is the development of computer networks and the Internet?
1. The audience will grow, the Internet will appear in the most remote places of the planet. By the end of 2012, the number of users of the Internet worldwide reached 2.4 billion users worldwide. By 2020, according to forecasts of the US National Science Foundation, the number of Internet users will increase to 5 billion. The Internet will become more distributed geographically. The greatest increase in users in the next 10 years will occur at the expense of residents of developing countries in Africa (now not more than 7%), Asia (about 19%) and the Middle East (Middle East) (about 28%). To compare now, more than 72% of North America residents use the Internet. This trend means that the Internet by 2020 will not only reach remote places around the world, but also supports much more languages \u200b\u200band not only the ASCII encoding system familiar to us. Russian Internet users, according to the Ministry of Communications of the Russian Federation, at the beginning of 2012 were 70 million people. According to this indicator, Russia came out in the first place in Europe and the sixth place in the world. According to the results of the study of the RBC.ReSearch agency, the level of Internet penetration in Russia in 2018 will exceed 80%.
2. B. information technologies The era of the software begins. Now we are experiencing a stage of iron intellectualization, when software becomes more important than the equipment itself. The software industry will grow in a large pace: in 2010. The annual growth rate of software was at least 6%, 2015. The market volumes will reach $ 365 billion, a quarter of which falls on the business application market. The Iron Market will be reduced: the volume of the market in 2013 amounted to $ 608 billion, the growth rate from 2008 to 2013 is negative -0.7%. Until 2018, an increase of 2.1% is predicted mainly due to the growth of the PC market (it will grow by 7.5%) and peripheral devices (printers, scanners, etc.). XXI century is a century of wireless technology. Only in 2009, the number of mobile broadband subscribers (3G, WiMAX and other high-speed data transmission technologies) increased by 85%. By 2014, they predict that 2.5 billion people around the world would use mobile broadband access.
3. The data transfer rate and bandwidth increases. To date, the data transfer rate in good computers is 40 Gb / s. For example, 4 volumes of the novel "War and Peace" L. Tolstoy is about 40 Mbps, i.e. 1000 times less! You can transmit these 4 volumes less than 1 microsecond. But, in the near future it will be possible to transmit data at the speed of light. Already today there is a Wigik technology that allows several kilometers to transmit information from the speed of 7 Gb / s. The method of encoding information at the physical level. Also with bandwidth. According to Cisco, today at the same time in Skype, there are more than 35 million users, on Facebook - over 200 million, 72 hours of video are downloaded every minute on YouTube. Experts predict that by 2015 the number of devices on the network will be two times higher than the population of the planet. By 2014, about 80% of this traffic will be video traffic. Images and video files, exchange that constantly occurs in the "World Wide Web" require a higher bandwidth. And technology will develop in this direction. Users will communicate and share information through video and votes in real time. More and more network applications appear, requiring interaction in the role of time.
4. Semantic Web. We are legitimately moving towards the "semantic Internet", in which information is given exactly a certain meaning, which allows computers to "understand" and process it at the semantic level. Today, computers work on the syntactic level, at the level of signs, they read and process information on external features. The term "semantic web" was first introduced by Sir Tim Berners-Lee (one of the inventors of the World Wide Web) in the journal Scientific American. Semantic Web will allow finding information to search for: "Find information about animals that use sound location, but not boring neither dolphin, for example.
5. New transmission objects. Thanks to the development of new technologies, it will be possible to transfer through computer networks that it used to be impossible. For example - the smell. The machine analyzes the molecular composition of the air at one point and transmits this data over the network. At another point of the network, this molecular composition, i.e. The smell is synthesized. The prototype of such a device has already released the American company Mint Foundry, it is called Olly, until he entered the free sale. However, we will soon be able to see the embodiment of these opportunities in everyday life.
6. The Internet will become a network of things, not just computers. Today, there are already 700 million computers (according to CIA World Factbook 2012) on the Internet (according to CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 2012). Every year the user has the number of devices that go to the network: computers, phone numbers, tablets, etc. Already today, the number of IP addresses exceeds the number of the population of the Earth (IP addresses are needed for the operation of household appliances). With the new architecture of computer networks, the Era of "Internet-Things" will come. Things and items will interact through networks, it will open great opportunities for all spheres of human life. One of the nearest developments is "smart dust" - sensors scattered on a large area collecting information. The US National Scientific Fund predicts that about billion sensors on buildings, bridges, roads will be connected to the Internet for purposes such as monitoring the use of electricity, to ensure safety, etc. In general, it is expected that by 2020 the number of Internet connected sensors will be an order of magnitude greater than the number of users. In the continuation of this thought, you can give reflections to the Vinton Graha Surf (American Mathematics Scientific, is considered one of the inventors TCP / IP Protocol, Google Vice-President): "Suppose that all the products that you put in the refrigerator are equipped with a special bar code. Or microchip so that the refrigerator fix everything you put in it. In this case, being at the university or at work, you can view this information from your phone, to watch different options for recipes, and the refrigerator would suggest you that it costs today. If you expand this idea, then it will be approximately the following picture. You go to the store, and while you are there, you call a mobile phone - it calls you a refrigerator, which advises what exactly it is worth buying. " Smart Internet will turn social networks (in the form that we have today) into social media systems. Cameras and various sensors will be installed in the premises. Through your own account, you can feed pets and run a washing machine, for example.
7. Robotization of society. Already today, we know examples of unmanned flying apparatuses, vacuum cleaners, in Japan "work" the police robots - all these technologies perform their functions without human intervention. And every year the penetration of such cars will only increase. One of the unresolved tasks in computational technologies is the problem of recreation of a computer of thinking. However, it is possible to combine the human brain with a cybernetic, computer system. Recall the film "Robocop". Already today there are similar experiments, when the prosthesis of the legs or hands of a person join the spinal cord. Recall the example of the South African Runner of Oscar Pistorius, since childhood devoid of both legs, but at the competitions overtaking absolutely healthy competitors, thanks to carbon prosthesis. According to experts, the first such "beyond man", cyberorganismit will appear until 2030. He will be F. amically perfect, resistant to diseases, radiation and extreme temperatures. And at the same time he will have a human brain.
8. New human status on the Internet. The Internet changes human life. The "World Wide Web" becomes not only a platform for information and communication, but also a tool for the realization of household needs: such as making purchases, payment of utilities and other Internet changed the attitude of a person with the state. Personal communication, personal access to special services will be minimized. Submit documents to university, call an ambulance, write a statement to the police, place a passport - all this is already possible to make an electronically. The state will continue to generate services through the Internet. Already today electronic document management throughout the country - the most important priority of the Ministry of Communications and mass communications RF. You need to talk about the new status of a person in the world of Internet technologies. Access to the network will be the civil law of every person, will be holy protected and controlled by law along with other civil liberties. This is a near future. So, the concept of democracy in society changes. For the voltage of citizens, special sites are no longer needed, the stands, the media. In this regard, it will become a minimum of anonymity. Luxury to change passwords and start accounts under non-existent names, leave caustic comments under the inches-invisible - most likely it will not become. The login / password to enter the network can be a means of identifying a person, and its real passport data will be tied to it. Moreover, most likely it will not be an "top", as an attempt to censorship and control. And the desire of society itself, the need "bottom". Because The more life on the Internet is real, the more transparency will want to be used by its users. A person's reputation in life will determine his reputation and in the global network, invented biographies will not. By defining human data, the network itself will create filters and passages to access information on age limits, to private information, to various services in accordance with the requirements and even social trustiness.
9. Changes in the labor market and education. The active penetration of network technologies and the Internet will lead to changes in the labor market and in the field of education. The Internet has already turned into a global and key communication tool, it turns everything more dynamic from the field of entertainment in the work platform. Social networks, Email, Skype, information resources, corporate sites and the program built into the computer tie people not so much to a specific office as to the computer itself. And here it does not matter where you come from: from work, from the house, with a cafe or from the coast of the Indian Ocean. Employees who perform their work remotely will be more and more. And there will be more and more offices in "Pocket", i.e. Virtual enterprises that exist only on the Internet. People who receive the education remotely through new formats provided by the Internet - also. For example, today in Standford University, a lecture of two professors is listening at the same time 25,000 people!
10. The Internet will become more "green." Network technologies consume too much energy, the volume is growing, and experts agree that the future architecture of computer networks should be more energy efficient. According to the National Laure of Lorenz University of Berkeley, the amount of energy consumed global Network, in the period from 2000 to 2006, doubled (!). The Internet takes 2% of world electricity consumption, which is equivalent to the capacity of 30th nuclear power plants - 30 billion W. The tendency to the "landscaping" or "ecologization" of the Internet will be accelerated as energy prices rises.
11. Cyberorazhe and cyberwomen. On the development of Internet technologies and the capabilities of computer networks there is another side of the coin. Starting from cybercrime associated with an increase in e-commerce on the Internet, to cybervan. Cyberspace is already officially recognized as the fifth "battlefield" (the same as sushi, sea, airspace and space). US Naval Forces in 2010 even created Cyberfor Cyberfor, who are in direct submission at the US Navy command. Today, not only PC ordinary users fall under viral attacks of hackers, but also industrial systemsManaging automated manufacturing processes. Malicious worm can be used as espionage, as well as diversions of power plants, airports and other life-supporting enterprises. So, in 2010, the computer worm Stuxnet struck Iran's nuclear facilities, thus dropping the nuclear program of this country for two years ago. The use of a malicious program turned out to be compared with a full-fledged military operation, but in the absence of victims among people. The uniqueness of this program was that for the first time in the history of Kiberatach, the virus physically destroyed the infrastructure. More recently, on March 27 of this year, the largest hacker attack in history, which even reduced the data transfer rate worldwide. The target of the attack was the European company SPAMHAUS, engaged in the opposition of spam mailing. The DDoS-attack power was 300 Gbps, though the power of 50 Gb / seconds is enough in order to fail the infrastructure of a large financial organization. National security problem is one of the most important issues on the agenda in developed countries. The current architecture of computer networks cannot provide such safety. Therefore, the antivirus / WEB protection industry and the development of new security technologies will grow every year.
12. Internet access and network technologies in space. Today the Internet network is planetary scale. On the agenda - interplanetary space, space internet.

The International Space Station is connected to the Internet, which significantly speeds up the processes of work and the interaction of the station with the Earth. But the usual establishment of communication with an optical fiber or simple cable, which is very efficient on earthly conditions, is impossible in space. In particular, due to the fact that it is impossible to use in the interplanetary space. The usual TCP / IP protocol (protocol is a special "language" of computer networks for "communication" with each other).

Research work on the creation of a new protocol, thanks to which the Internet could function at lunar stations, and on Mars, are conducted. So, one of the similar protocols is called Disruption Tolerant Networking (DTN). Computer networks with this protocol have already been applied to the communication of the ISS with the Earth, in particular, photographs of salts were sent through the communication channels, which were obtained in a state of weightlessness. But experiments in this area continue.

The Internet for two more than a dozen years of its development has practically not changed conceptually and architecturally. On the one hand, new data transmission technologies have been introduced, on the other hand, new services were created, but the main concept of the network, the architecture of computer networks remain at the level of the 80s of the last century. Changes not only have long called, but also vital. Because On the basis of the old architecture, innovation is impossible. Computer networks have already been working on the limit of their capabilities today, and the load that networks will have to experience with such an active growth, they may simply not withstand. The development and implementation of all listed trends is possible only after the introduction of a new, more flexible architecture of computer networks. In the whole scientific IT world, this is a question number 1.

The most promising technology / architecture of computer networks, which is able to withdraw from the crisis is Technology of software-configurable networks (softweredefined.network). In 2007, the staff of the University of Stanford and Berkeley developed a new "language" of communication of computer networks - openflo protocolw.and new computer networking algorithm - PKS technology . Its basic value is that it allows you to go from the "manual" network management. In modern networks, the management and data transmission functions are combined, which makes control and management is very complex. PCS architecture shares the management process and the data transfer process. What opens up the enormous opportunities for the development of Internet technologies, since the PKS does not limit us, withdrawing software to the fore. In Russia, the study of the PKS is engaged in the Center for Computer Networks.

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