Professions that we forget but are irreplaceable. Pre-revolutionary HR, or Forgotten professions on the canvases of Russian artists. What professions did not become in the last century

With the development of technological progress in many professions, the need has disappeared, because now they are being replaced by automated devices and a variety of gadgets. But in the last century, these professions were very useful and in demand.

Bowling pin setter

Instead of cars, special people used to be used to place the pins.

The job was challenging, noisy, and poorly paid

As a rule, little boys were hired for this work. The guys who set the pins in the bowling alley were replaced by machines

Alarm clock man

These people walked along a certain route, knocking on the windows of their clients with a long stick, throwing stones and shouting for urine, until they were convinced that they woke up people who did not want to sleep through work.

The alarm clock man has also lost its need. Various gadgets now help us wake up on time

Nowadays, these people are called hooligans.

A computer

In Webster's English Dictionary of 1828, the definition of the word computer is given as: "The person who makes the calculations." Before it became a thing, it was a man, usually a young woman. As you may have guessed, they were engaged in various calculations and calculations, because someone had to do this work. Now this word has a completely different definition.

Chimney sweep

Yes, chimney sweeps exist to this day, but only now it is more a whim of the rich, and earlier it was a necessity. By clearing soot from chimneys, chimney sweeps saved people from cold death. Fortunately, now there are simpler options for heating the house.

Factory workers lecturer

Have you ever listened to music or an audio book while doing monotonous work? Factory workers hired live "lecturers" who read them literary works as they worked. Sometimes workers were thrown off to hire this person.

Currently, "lecturers" have been replaced by players, radio and other passive entertainment gadgets

Ice carver

Before the invention of the refrigerator, to preserve food, you had to collect ice in the winter to use it in the summer. Ice collection and special carvers were involved

They cut chunks of ice from frozen lakes, risking death from hypothermia if they fell into an ice hole.

Nowadays ice is not transferred from place to place, but special refrigeration equipment is used.

Do-radar listeners of enemy aircraft

Soon after the invention of airplanes, armies around the world invented methods for detecting the sound of engines approaching from the horizon.

Before the invention of radar, people relied on the sensitive ears of workers and acoustic mirrors. Hearing the approach of an enemy plane, these listeners sounded the alarm. Enemy aircraft detection has become fully automated

Probably professional listeners were very bored, and they could use the services of lecturers, but, unfortunately, this was contrary to the peculiarities of their work.

Pied Piper

When Europe suffered from massive rat infestations, this work was one of the most popular

Rats often carried diseases, and these people were at risk of getting sick from bites, but their work was an important public service.

It was the best "trap" for rats with a guaranteed result, but at the same time it was also the most expensive.

Lantern lighter

Before the introduction of electric lamps, street lamps were lit by hand.

Special people walked the streets and the list of their duties included lighting lanterns, extinguishing and refueling

Milkman

Without refrigeration, milk will go bad within one day. This is why a person was required who made daily deliveries, right up to the advent of the refrigerator.

Milk jugs were common in cities, as residents countryside were not deficient in milk. Despite the fact that this item is present in the article, in some places dairymen still continue to do their job, for example, in India

Log transporter

Even before roads and railways the best way the transfer of logs was rafting down the river. These people were in control of this process.

People were divided into groups and looked after problem areas in which logs could get stuck, forming some kind of a dam

Noticing the emerging congestion, they had to clear it up as quickly as possible before a large congestion formed.

In cases where they did not succeed, the workers used dynamite to eliminate large congestion

Working with dynamite, standing above the water on logs tied together, deaths at work were common for lumberjacks, as they were often piled up with logs or drowned in the water under them. At the same time, their work was considered prestigious and highly respected.

Switch operator

Today's millions of simultaneous phone calls are routed digitally

Not so long ago, all of these calls were handled manually by countless switch operators who literally connected wire to wire.

"Gandhi dancers"

It sounds very exotic, but in fact, these people were engaged in heavy manual labor... "Gandhi dancers" is a slang term for railroad workers who built, repaired and prevented railroad tracks. "Gandhi" was the name of a company producing tools, and they were called "dancers" because of the characteristic movements that workers performed by hammering crutches into sleepers

Resurrectionist

In the 19th century, doctors at universities and hospitals had to hire people to steal corpses from graves for research and experimentation. Often, students of medical universities themselves were engaged in this, since practical tasks were given out, but they had to get the material to complete them on their own. This is how a special protection for graves appeared called "Mortsafe"

Daguerreotype

Daggerotype was the forerunner of photography, only in their case the final image was not obtained on photographic paper, but a polished silver-plated copper plate. Since the image was manifested in mercury vapor, it was very dangerous and very expensive pleasure. It should be noted that at that time the pictures were of fairly high quality, but, unfortunately, they could not be copied.

In 10-15 years, artificial intelligence will leave millions of people unemployed, experts warn

From the employer's point of view, computers are more profitable than people: they are cheaper and work more efficiently, photo: Robohunter
Computers are already doing some things much better than humans today. Experts say that in just 10-15 years, artificial intelligence will oust a person from many professions and leave millions of people without work.

What professions are under the threat of extinction, whether the power of computers is inevitable and how it threatens humanity, "Strana" figured out.

Robot vs Human

Monopolization by artificial intelligence (AI) (scientifically correct name - "deep neural networks") of all spheres of human life is no longer futurological ideas, but economic calculations. Leading scientific research warns that the world will face horrific unemployment in the coming decades. This can provoke riots, exacerbate social inequality, poverty and other social problems.

So, according to data from the University of Oxford, over the next 20 years in the United States, every second workplace will be automated - 47% of workers will replace machines. In China, 77%.

The Australian Youth Advocacy Group (FYA) warns that about 70% of young people in Australia are now in occupations where the impact of automation will be "radical". That is, in fact, in twenty years, their knowledge and professional skills will no longer be needed by anyone - the same functions will be performed by computers. With the only difference - the employer will not have to pay the salary to the cars, and from it - taxes to the state.

From the point of view of the employer, a robot is more profitable than a person: it does everything faster and cheaper. Moreover, modern AI is also able to learn. And if a person may take years to master a new skill, the computer spends seconds on it. The person cannot withstand the competition.

“We are getting closer to the time when machines will surpass humans in almost any endeavor,” said the professor of computational engineering, director of the Institute. information technologies Moshe Vardi. - I believe that society needs to face this problem before it rises to its full height. If machines can do almost everything that humans can do, what will they do? "

According to Vardy's forecasts, in 30 years, robots will be able to do almost everything that humans can do. And this will lead to the fact that more than 50% of the world's inhabitants will become unemployed, and society will plunge into total procrastination.

According to the International Federation of Robotics, the leader in automation in South Korea, where there are 531 robots per 10 thousand workers. China is still lagging behind: there are only 49 robots by 10 thousand, but the country ranks first in the rate of increase in robotics units.

However, the automation trend will not capture Ukraine as quickly as the West, experts say - because of the relatively cheap labor. In general, in relation to Europe, Ukraine will begin to feel the invasion of computers with a delay of about 10 years. According to experts, the higher will become average salary in Ukraine, the more often employers will give preference to robots over people.

Experts reassure: automation is a historically natural process, and humanity has experienced something similar before. In the 18-19th centuries, with the beginning of the industrial revolution, for example, cars were first ousted from the transport of horses, but now they can replace people. ATMs, self-service centers, and more recently online banking have replaced an army of bank employees. And you need to take it calmly.

"There was once such a profession - people-calculators who counted on adding machines. Some scientists believe that artificial intelligence appeared when people invented a calculator that could solve the same mathematical problems much faster and better than a person," says Artem Chernodub, candidate technical sciences, an AI researcher at Clikque Technology.

The power of neural networks lies in the fact that their teacher is a limitless Internet space. Robots can already do more than just what they were originally programmed to do.

"Recently, the neural system has developed own system encryption and taught this system to another neural network. AI today already works in such a way that even the architect of this network does not understand how it does it. She changes herself from the inside. It works on the principle of the human brain - that's why it is called neural ", - notes the expert on reputation management Boris Tizengauzen.

It was Deep Learning ("Deep Learning" - algorithms that allow AI to learn and improve itself without human intervention - Ed.) That made the cost of computing cheaper, and therefore the cost of the computers themselves. This is now leading to the mass automation of professions.

"One gigaflops (a measure of the performance of computers - the number of mathematical operations that a computing system performs per second, Approx. Ed.) - now costs about 6 cents, in 2008 it cost about 50 dollars, and in 1997 - about 40 thousand dollars, - leads example Artem Chernodub - Computers have become more powerful and, accordingly, cheaper. The modern mobile phone is more powerful than the most advanced computer 10 years ago, and it is now available to most people, whereas a computer 30 years ago was a luxury. Today you can automatically train deep neural networks on large amounts of data, even just 1 terabyte of images, and receive behavior from them that is similar to human behavior, and sometimes even surpasses its capabilities. 10 years ago it seemed fantastic. "

The capabilities of neural networks are truly impressive. Their influence is especially noticeable in the direction of chatbots. Take, for example, the startup Luka, which generates dialogues with the characters of various works: after the death of the singer Prince, they created a chat with the musician, analyzing interviews with him in publicly available sources.

Two design options for the same product. The left one is human. Right - suggested by the computer (Within Enhance program). The most incredible thing is that the design of the computer is more natural and pleasing to the eye. Although AI did not rely on personal experience- he was only striving for maximum efficiency.

Another impressive example is when the artificial intelligence AlphaGo, created by a division of Google, beat the champion of Europe in the game of checkers Go. Go surpasses even chess in complexity, with millions of unpredictable moves.

“Google trained the neural network in the following way: they loaded into it the data of all the games that could be found, and the system assigned priority to those moves thanks to which the computer won, and eventually learned to play at the level of an average player,” says Boris Tizengauzen. Google forced this AI to play with another AI. They were running millions of moves per second and in the end no one won. But playing with each other, they improved. As a result, AlphaGo beat the European champion in checkers Go with a score of 5: 0. The champion was upset. "

Martin Ford, author of Rise of the Robots, is convinced that automation cannot be stopped. “It's part of capitalism - the constant pursuit of productivity gains,” he says. The robotization of production is beneficial to almost everyone except workers without degrees, and it is they who will be most affected by mass robotization.

Dying professions

According to experts, almost any profession that is associated with a repeatable algorithm of actions is in danger of extinction today. Roughly speaking, if you are doing the same routine work every day from morning to evening, connected with the constant collection, processing and analysis of data, it makes sense to think about changing your profession.

Some positions will disappear altogether, while others will be forced to modernize to meet the new realities of the technological world. "Strana" together with experts has compiled a list of 25 professions that are at risk.

1. Drivers

The development of AI will inevitably affect taxi drivers, and indeed all carriers. In the United States, it is predicted that in 15 years all transport will become automated. Self-propelled vehicles will replace taxi drivers and public transport, excavator operators, truckers, drivers.

Tesla and Google have been testing self-driving cars in the US for a year now. In Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, as well as in Singapore, self-driving cars have already begun to be used as taxis. And the Russian Federation and Finland are even negotiating the creation of infrastructure for unmanned communication between the countries.

By 2025, American automakers plan to mass produce self-driving cars for a wide range of buyers. They will not have a steering wheel or pedals. What for?

Intellectual transport systems(ITS) will allow avoiding accidents: cars will read information from each other, know about oncoming traffic, and change the trajectory and speed of movement depending on this data. You won't even need a traffic light - the cars themselves will see that another car is crossing the road and avoid collisions.

Flying car design project. Photo: 3DNews

The only thing that is slowing down the widespread distribution of cars on autopilot is the poor condition of the roads. But this obstacle is temporary. It is possible that soon the roads for cars will not be needed - they will fly through the air. Terrafugia has been working on such a flying car since 2013 and is currently undergoing testing. The flight will also be controlled by a computer system - the user just needs to indicate the destination.

2. Conductors and controllers

Following the drivers, the conductors will also disappear. In some cities, trains already run on their own, and the fare in them is automatically read from bank cards using telephones.

3. Conveyor workers

Robots are replacing manual labor in manufacturing. For example, Adidas is building a fully automated plant in Germany, where robots make everything from designing clothes to sewing them. The process of manufacturing a pair of sneakers from start to finish takes about five hours. In comparison, in the current supply chain of Adidas in Asia, a similar process could take several weeks. Robots will also be able to quickly create custom-made shoes - a significant competitive advantage.

4. Guards

The sphere of security services is also computerized. Concierges, security guards, watchmen will be replaced by person identification systems, which, due to the increasing terrorist threats, are already being introduced everywhere in crowded places. It is convenient and effective: the computer recognizes a person's face and immediately determines whether he has a criminal record, is potentially dangerous or not, whether he has been seen in contact with criminals. By the way, in this regard, AI will significantly complicate the work of burglars: the computer will instantly determine whether a neighbor or an outsider has entered the staircase.

"Now in Britain, the subway face recognition system also connects to a person's social media accounts, determines whether he is a member of terrorist groups - and if several suspicious people enter the subway at the same time, the system immediately sends a signal to the police," Boris cites as an example. Tiesenhausen.

5. Sellers and cashiers

In Seattle, Amazon has opened the world's first store without checkouts, salespeople and queues. Scanning devices automatically punch the goods at the exit and withdraw money from the account. This is a real revolution in shopping.

It is based on Just Walk Out technology. It automatically detects when food is removed from the shelves and returned to its place, and forms a virtual basket. Based on it, immediately after the buyer leaves the store, he receives an invoice.

"All mass professions - such as cashiers, salespeople, resellers, merchandisers, warehouse workers, even waiters - can be automated, which means they will be automated. Go to McDonald's near the Louvre in Paris - very few people work there. the standards are too high, and it is expensive to hire a person to work even at McDonald's, because he has to pay at least 1,600 euros. Therefore, everything is robotized, "says Chernodub.

6. Consultants

Today, chatbots are successfully replacing them in the virtual world. They provide online shopping advice and help shoppers solve product problems. Experts do not exclude that soon special robots will appear in stores that will present the products of companies, greet visitors, tell them about the characteristics of the product, showing its images on the screen. By using facial expressions and body language, robots will recognize human emotions and respond to them accordingly.

7. Accountants

With the introduction of electronic document management, the need for a huge layer of people who were engaged in paperwork, transferred documents from place to place and entered data into databases disappears. In fact, any person himself will be able to submit declarations, draw up basic documents for opening his own enterprise, for example. A few years ago, firms hired an accountant specifically for this.

8. Finance staff

Here we are talking not only about the banal shifting of pieces of paper. Software effectively replaces brokers and traders.

For example, since 2000, the number of finance staff on Wall Street has dropped by about one third. Instead of them, the computer conducts hundreds of thousands of transactions, within a split second makes a decision on buying and selling based on data that is automatically collected on the market and exchange services. During this time, a person will only have time to take a sip of coffee.

"Already, on the American stock exchange, 40% of decisions to buy or sell shares are made by AI. Traders have many special programs that determine trends, analyze quotes on several exchanges at once and build a mathematical model of how they will move on. it is not capable, "says Boris Tiesenhausen.

9. Translators

In fact, each of us unwittingly contributes to the extinction of this profession: every time you enter a text into an online translator, you teach it. If you indicate that a word in a sentence is translated incorrectly, the computer remembers this. With each such correction, he learns, and the machine translation becomes more and more perfect. Google began using neural networks for translation at the end of 2016 - the number of errors in text translations decreased by 60%.

Now the search giants Yandex and Google are testing neurosystems with in-depth morphological analysis, which approach the translation of texts in a completely new way. Here's an example: The "translator" was taught to translate from Japanese to English and from Korean to English. It suddenly emerged that the AI ​​was capable of translating directly from Japanese to Korean, even though it had not been taught to do so. The neural network itself created its own translation algorithm, in which an intermediary language (English) was not needed.

Experts assure: over time, the lexical stock of a smartphone will be equal to that of a human. AI will even be able to create its own language. Humanity will forget what language barriers are: you no longer need to spend years learning a foreign language - your smartphone will easily and competently provide simultaneous translation into any language of the planet.

10. Call center operators

Many companies have already replaced call center operators with automated programs that respond to customer complaints and offer appropriate solutions. If the robot cannot cope with the problem on its own, it automatically switches the subscriber to a "live" employee.

11. Programmers and web designers

In the near future, specialties that are now considered intellectual will be recognized as "workers": programming, web design, 3D design. All this for a person today can easily be done by a machine.

For example, in order to design and manufacture a denture, a dental specialist now has to study for many years and obtain the appropriate qualifications, and the manufacture of such a denture itself is very expensive. But already today, 3D printers can print dentures - quickly and cheaply. And soon such specialists will not be needed.

As for the development of sites, according to experts, neural networks will soon learn to independently develop both layout and design of sites, applications and programs. The person will simply set the parameters he needs.

"Already now programmers write code differently than programmers did twenty years ago, when all the commands had to be remembered by heart. Now the program itself offers the programmer the codes, and he chooses the necessary ones. This will continue to be automated. I think it will come to the point where that a person will say: “Siri, write me such and such a program.” And Siri will write, ”says Artem Chernodub.

12. Tour guides

Even today, AI easily determines where we are, provides historical information, shows photographs and virtual views of the area.

"The neural network can give much more information and adapt to your interests. Targeted content now comes out on top - Facebook works according to this algorithm, showing what you are interested in, Google, etc. The system understands what you are interested in and presents this is exactly in the way in which it will be interesting for you to see it. It is clear that the "live" guides will remain, but they will rather become exotic ", - predicts Boris Tizengauzen.

13. Soldiers

Unmanned aircrafts, drones, security robots, monitoring systems already cope with many tasks much better than human and even make decisions - to open fire or not, defining the enemy by form and weapon. In the near future, experts say, they will begin replacing living soldiers in ground missions as well. Soon, a person will remotely control tanks and planes, without participating in battles himself.

Here one cannot but recall the autonomous tracked vehicle MAARS (Modular Advanced Armed Robotic System) - this is a robot. In his arsenal - a machine gun, as well as tear, fragmentation, high-explosive and smoke grenades. At the same time, MAARS is able not only to kill, but also to save - to disarm mines and pull out wounded people from the battlefield.

14. Builders

Construction is already partially automated. It is no longer necessary to build a house - it can be printed on a special construction 3D printer. A person chooses the design of the house they like, presses one button and a giant 3D printer prints the necessary blocks from concrete or other material.

WinSun in China has been developing such houses since 2014. And a Shanghai 3D house printer can create ten buildings from construction and industrial waste. The cost of producing one such house is not more than 5 thousand dollars.

15. Food producers

3D printers may soon take over the mass production of food for humans. By and large, you can load any materials into them, and why not do it with edible products. Natural Machines has already presented a similar development. The Foodini 3D printer allows you to load up to five different ingredients into it - you can set the required program, and the dish will be quickly "printed". The result is still more like fast food, so the chefs of elite restaurants need not worry for now.

16. Travel Agents

“Five years ago, there were travel agency offices on every corner, but now travel agents have virtually disappeared: they have been replaced by automatic platforms for booking and ordering tickets and places for rest. trust electronic systems payment, but like their clients, they are already living out their days, "- says Boris Tizengauzen.

17. Astronauts

There is also a place for robotics in space. The robots are already doing the dirty work at the station. And the robot Robonaut2 (R2) from NASA and General Motors is already surfing the vastness of the earth's orbit. R2 is capable of operating both inside the ISS and in outer space. And he doesn't need a bulky spacesuit for that. Subsequently, R2 is planned to land on the moon - it is safe and not expensive.

18. Postmen and couriers

Delivery services are already gradually taking over drones and other similar devices. From the warehouse - straight to your home, conveniently and quickly.

Medicine, along with defense, are the leaders in AI investment.

For example, Memorial Sloan-Kettering's New York Cancer Center has introduced a system of automatic medical diagnostics using the Watson supercomputer. He determines the diagnosis more precisely than doctors, and selects the optimal method of treatment for each individual case. The accuracy of Watson's diagnoses is due to the fact that he reviewed 600,000 medical studies (about 2 million pages of text).

Less complex diseases can soon be diagnosed using a mobile phone. London-based startup Your.MD is improving an application for iOS and Android devices that can listen to complaints in text or voice mode and determine their illness.

Surgeons-robots are already performing operations, at the microlevel they are suturing tissues. Instead of suturing, doctors are now using robotic staplers. There are also robotic anesthesiologists, since 2013 these systems have been approved in the United States. Using them instead of the services of a professional anesthesiologist in the American market can save between $ 450 and $ 1,850 per patient.

20. Pharmacists

Robots have already begun distributing medicines to patients. In San Francisco medical Center UCSF has installed experimental vending machines in two hospitals, which, after receiving an electronic prescription from a doctor, weigh the required doses of medicines, pack them into pills and give them to the patient.

Robots can replace nannies and caregivers. The Japanese company NEC has developed the PaPeRo robot, which is capable of entertaining people and caring for children and the mentally ill, helping them develop communication skills. The robot is able to conduct a dialogue in a natural and pleasant voice, tell jokes, guess, make riddles, remind about taking medications and transmit voice messages from a person to other people, whom PaPeRo recognizes by their faces.

22. Fitness trainers

This profession, according to experts, will face a major transformation. A robot is already conducting trainings in many mobile applications - it is cheaper, and the online broadcast can reach an unlimited number of users.

23. Teachers

Now you can get a diploma from any university remotely. One teacher can teach not ten people, how many will fit in a class, but thousands of people at a time. Experts believe that a kind of natural selection will begin in the industry, and really highly qualified minds will remain teaching, who are truly appreciated in the professional environment and have exceptional knowledge.

24. Journalists

Yes, the person who writes this article may also be unemployed in a decade or two.

Electronic media workers are at risk. The Los Angeles Times, Associated Press, Forbes and other well-known media are already actively using robots - they create operational financial reports, sports results and provide information about the weather. Robots will gather information much faster than journalists, find out "who, what, when, where, how and why", even interview experts and draw up the final information material. Narrative Science predicts that in 15 years, 90% of news reports will be generated automatically.

Of course, we are not talking about columnists and the genre of artistic reporting bordering on literature - here, in the subtleties of observations, the skill of conveying live emotions and the beauty of style, a computer cannot surpass a person. At least for now.

25. Priests

Do not rush to be indignant. Of course, robots will not be able to fully replace the clergy, but partially AI is already being introduced into the church. You don't have to go far to find examples: last year a service for ordering prayers via the Internet was created in Lviv. In addition, for several years now, in order to put a note in the Wailing Wall, it is not at all necessary to go to Jerusalem - you just need to leave your message on the website of the shrine.

All hope for creativity

Experts insist: only professions associated with monotonous manual labor, in which there is no creative, intellectual, creative component, and most importantly, the need for purely human empathy, will disappear.

“Indeed, some professions will disappear, but only those that can be fully automated. Human staff will continue to be in demand, for example, in the Love and Care industry - those areas where a machine simply cannot replace a component of human warmth and participation. and the robot that volunteers are doing today - caring for the elderly and the sick, supporting victims, helping people with disabilities, "says HR specialist Larisa Bruver.

Bruver does not believe that in 15 years we will all be looking for a new job en masse. "The work landscape will certainly change, but it will shift towards intellectual and creative work - into areas where even self-learning algorithms will either not be able to show the same performance, or robotization will be artificially limited due to the risk of losing control over the process," says expert.

The more complex and creative the profession is, the less automation threatens it. Artists, presenters, designers, actors, showmen, artists - they will remain in demand.

However, today robots have already learned how to create works of art. Andrey Karpaty from Stanford University has created a program into which you can load certain texts, say Shakespeare's sonnets, and it will itself start generating texts in the same style. By the same principle, neural networks can already draw pictures in the style of Van Gogh and Picasso, generate music a la Bach. There is even a music album "Neural Defense", the lyrics to which were written by a robot.

How valuable and qualitatively such "creativity" is is another question. For those who are tuned in to primitive consumption, there will not be much difference between the work of Mozart and the robot. But can this be considered art?

“Here the question is more about art critics. But I’ll say on my own behalf: sometimes you come to the PinchukArtCentre, look at the piece of asphalt displayed there and think - what nonsense? And then a modern art critic will come up to you and explain that this is actually art , - says Artem Chernodub. - But seriously, I think that if the paintings of authorship artificial intelligence start buying, then it can be considered, if not art, then at least a product. "

It is comforting that the robot can repeat, calculate, copy - but cannot create anything radically new. So far, computer creativity is just an imitation.

This is why the demand for human weirdness and genius will remain. Scientists, inventors, researchers, creators of art are not creative people, but creators - without them, the development of society, even with total automation of labor, is impossible. In addition, the ubiquity of robots has a significant plus: against their background, the uniqueness and exclusivity inherent only to humans will be more and more appreciated.

"No highly developed artificial intelligence is able to completely replace humans," says Michio Kaku, an American physicist of Japanese origin. more benefits in front of cars than we can imagine. Robots lack imaginative thinking, they have no consciousness, intuition. "

Therefore, the scientist advises: to achieve success, you need to develop those abilities that are not available to robots: creativity, imagination, initiative, leadership qualities. Countries that are able to balance commodity markets and cognitive-creative potential.

But even if you don't know how to draw, sing, write music and have not received a PhD from Harvard, you should not panic. Technological progress both kills some professions and gives rise to new ones.

Scientists at Utrecht University predict that, although labor automation will reduce the number of jobs, it will allow companies to reduce production costs, and with it the prices of goods - which will increase the purchasing power of citizens and create new jobs in other industries.

In addition, robots will still need human supervision for a long time. There will be a need for the profession of a roboethics - a professional who will train robots and make sure that they do not harm a person.

In any case, we learn to interact with AI. It is easier for modern children in this regard - they learn to use the tablet before they speak. For older people, of course, it will be more difficult to retrain. But now is the time to think about whether you want to do what you are doing now all your life. The main thing is to find your bearings in time and adapt to the new technological reality. Progress can no longer be stopped.

By 2030, 57 professions will disappear.

Aging intellectual professions on the horizon 2013-2030

Accountant
estimator
loan manager
statistician
stenographer / transcript
copywriter
corrector
build editor
set maker
librarian
document expert / archivist

travel agent
tester
understudy / stuntman
legal adviser
notary
bank teller
broker / realtor
guide
analyst
journalist
sports analyst

Referent
interpreter
operator public services
logistician
diagnostician
System Administrator
dispatcher
navigator
pharmacist

Obsolete blue-collar jobs on the 2013-2030 horizon

Usher
watchman
lifter
valet
call center operator
postman
highly professional agricultural worker
Courier

Hall keeper in the museum
freight train driver
Dps inspector
security guard
miner
miner
packer
cook
driller

Foreman
transport terminal worker
seamstress
porter
concrete worker
dry cleaner
waiter
trainer

ACCOUNTANT
Special software already now allows beginners to quickly cope with basic audit operations and accounting... In future computer programs will be able to completely replace people.
BUDGET
The tasks performed by specialists of this profession are completely transferred to intelligent programs. The volume of data and their complexity increases, it becomes difficult for a person to quickly and efficiently process such a flow of information. In the next 5-7 years, the number necessary specialists will decrease sharply, while their tasks will be reduced to the operational maintenance of intelligent programs and systems that calculate estimates.
LOAN MANAGER
You can already apply for a loan online today. In the future, special computer programs will make decisions on the issuance of a loan by requesting information about a potential client in big data databases.
STATISTICIAN
In the future, the processes of collecting, processing and organizing data will become much more complicated due to the growing amount of information. Previous knowledge and skills will not be enough for this, and big data specialists will come to replace statisticians.
STENOGRAPHIST / INTERPRETER
Already, voice recognition systems (for example, Yandex.Dictation) and speech-to-text conversion can replace the work of such professionals. Technology is advancing so rapidly that by 2017 the use of such programs will become ubiquitous.
COPYWRITER
Computer programs (bots) connected to huge databases with texts, articles, manifestos, literary works, etc., are already capable of generating medium-quality texts of a given literary form on any topic using standard syntactic constructions.
CORRECTOR
Automatic text checking systems will develop, taking into account all the nuances of spelling in a particular language - you can already check spelling and punctuation in a Word document or browser. So far, these programs are imperfect, but in the near future, with the development of technologies for semantic text analysis, they will already be able to replace humans.
BUILD EDITOR
A separate work of a specialist in the selection of illustrations for the publication will not be needed in the near future. In the future, a convenient algorithm for searching photos and pictures on the Web will allow text authors to deal with text, and with pictures, and with video.
MOVIE DECORATION INSTALLER
Modern computer graphics allows you to paint any background - from wild jungle to gothic castle. Why bother with pavilions when you can draw an entire 3D city? Therefore, set designers will remain only in theaters, while in the cinema they are already being replaced by specialists in computer graphics.
LIBRARY, DOCUMENTIST / ARCHIVARIUS
The digitization of all libraries and archives with the ability to access any information 24/7 from anywhere in the world is revolutionizing archiving and librarianship. Librarians and archivists as they are will disappear, but archive management activities will move to networked solutions.
LECTURER
The range of tasks of teachers-"reproducers" will change due to the development educational technologies and changing student requests - recording a standard lecture course under dictation reduces motivation to study, any information can be found on the Web, and the world's leading universities offer various certification free and paid online courses to anyone. Lecturers must provide students with unique experiences that they cannot otherwise get. Over time, lectures will be read only by those who have either unique knowledge and experience, or knows how to communicate with the audience and is able to artistically present information.
TRAVEL AGENT
This profession is being destroyed by the following factors: people increasingly prefer individual tourism to mass tourism, and spontaneous recreation to clearly planned ones; the abundance of Internet services and applications for the selection of transfers, accommodation, leisure planning (and without commissions and with 24/7 access) allow users to directly, without intermediaries, organize their vacation. This profession will disappear as more and more people get used to their own tours over the Internet. Over time, travel agents will remain only in the elite segment, where a special value will be that a real person, and not a program, works with a client on an individual order.
DUBLER / STUNKER
There is no longer any need to perform dizzying stunts in reality - thanks to computer processing of the video, an actor without special physical training can jump out of the train at full speed or cope with a stormy waterfall. Today's stuntmen become something like circus performers, performing in special shows.
Tester
Robotic systems, simulators, and computer simulation make it possible to replace a person during many tests of varying complexity and danger. Over time, the profession of a tester will become more exotic.
LEGAL CONSULT
Answers to common questions can be found in the sections "questions and answers" on most legal portals, Required documents It is easy to find in the archives of databases, and you can get direct consultation in the community or ask a question to a specialist. Online consultation will be needed in a much smaller number of cases, so the demand for such specialists is falling sharply.
NOTARY
Development of remote access services for processing documents and performing banking operations using electronic signature, the ability to connect to databases for the purpose of verifying identity, solvency or criminal record make the functions of a notary obsolete. Soon, this profession can only survive thanks to outdated legislation.
BANKING OPERATOR
Almost all banking operations are transferred to the Network and are as close to the user as possible, and cash in significant amounts is issued by ATMs. In the next 10-15 years, the remaining bank employees will gradually switch to serving the part of the population that has not been able to adapt to new technologies.
BROKER / REALTOR
Internet services allow you to select real estate with any parameters and anywhere in the world without leaving your home; payment transactions are also carried out over the network (in this case, there are no commission costs). As in the case of travel agents, real estate agents will remain mainly in the premium segment, where personal contact with the client is important.
GUIDE
Standard tours and excursions will be replaced by individual programs, and guides will be replaced by virtual guides and special tourist programs and applications that allow you to navigate the terrain and find out all the necessary information on topics of interest to a particular user.
ANALYST
Intelligent systems are already capable of performing analytical work in various fields, especially for standard and repetitive operations. With time analytical services will be replaced by services based on artificial intelligence.
JOURNALIST
Programs for translating speech into text and programs for writing text documents allow you to automate and speed up such a previously creative profession in many ways. For example, Bloomberg has replaced some of its news staff with an artificial intelligence program that writes stock news faster and more colorful than human journalists. Amateur reporting and blogs, which are rapidly gaining popularity due to their liveliness, right-
Divinity and naturalness begin to compete with TV, radio and print journalists of the leading media. In 20 years, artificial intelligence will be able to solve problems related to the media by 95%. The main destiny of journalists will be author's journalism, built on the author's original views and approach, close to fiction or cinema.
SPORTS ANALYST
The ability to memorize and compare the details of sports biographies and match results from ten years ago, analyze information and predict the likely outcomes of future games was indispensable in the pre-information era - but in the near future a computer will cope with this function.
SECRETARY - REFERENT
Most of the functions of an assistant will be able to perform computer programs - to distribute calls, make schedules, schedule meetings, order air tickets on a business trip, etc. Already now there is software that can take on some of these responsibilities - the question is to develop an optimal solution that combines the maximum functions.
OPERATOR OF PUBLIC SERVICES
The development of such services as the "Portal of Public Services" and "Electronic Government", as well as civil crowdsourcing leads to the transformation of the tasks of the municipal employee - at least the number of employees involved in document circulation should decrease.
INTERPRETER
The development of semantic translation programs is proceeding by leaps and bounds, and even now a simple technical translation can be performed automatically. These programs are already capable of translating both written and oral speech... As the technology continues to evolve, the niche for human translators will remain only for highly skilled professionals, usually those involved in complex translations or working in the field of literary translation.
LOGIST, DISPATCHER
The transport infrastructure is becoming more complex, cargo delivery is becoming modular, freight and passenger flows are increasing, and user requirements for the quality and speed of delivery are increasing. It is more and more difficult for a person to cope with such tasks. However, automated control and tracking systems for transportation with all kinds of sensors and the possibility of satellite monitoring, intelligent pro
grams of delivery routes development and tracking. A person is needed only for control at the highest level - making decisions in the event of emergency, difficult situations. Therefore, in the profession of dispatchers and logisticians, the number of workers will gradually decrease, and the intensity and complexity of their work will increase.
DIAGNOSTICIAN
The functions of this specialist are gradually being replaced by mobile diagnostic devices and automated expert systems. Already, the artificial intelligence system IBM Watson diagnoses dangerous diseases, in particular, cancer, with an accuracy several times higher than the accuracy of experienced diagnostic doctors. In the next five years, the market for microdiagnostic devices will actively develop: a person in any conditions and at any time will be able to take his current physiological indicators and instantly transmit data to a specific doctor via the Network. Primary diagnostics in clinics and hospitals will also be performed with special equipment with intelligent programs. In 15–20 years, the need for new diagnosticians will be very low. Those specialists who will appear in the next 5-10 years will be enough to cover the need for these specialists during the period of obsolescence of the profession throughout Russia until 2030.
SYSTEM ADMINISTRATOR
The development of artificial intelligence systems will make it possible to eliminate system failures quickly and almost invisibly to the user. The sysadmins we are accustomed to are replaced by programs and specialists in their configuration.
NAVIGATOR
The main functions of this specialist - plotting a course, calculations related to movements and marking movements on a map, are already capable of performing devices with GPS navigation.
PHARMACIST
Many pharmacies are switching to work through Internet resources, since a significant part of buyers are able to find medicines for themselves through the network either on their own or on the recommendation of a doctor. Logistic services are ready to deliver the order at any time of the day. The pharmacist stays in the pharmacy either to provide people with medicines in an emergency, or to work with the population unable to independently
serve. After 2020 the need for a pharmacist
will be very low.

Usher
Already, ticket inspectors are more of a form of honorable pension. By the end of the 2010s, most citizens will have electronic cards to pay for passage through automated scanners at the entrances to buildings and transport, when attending events, etc.
Doorman
Automatic keys, retinal and fingerprint recognition systems used to secure office and living quarters over time supplant these workers. V developed countries watchmen have already become a rarity, and in the next 5-7 years this profession will disappear in large Russian cities as well.
Lifter
Technological solutions for the repair and maintenance of elevators, which are becoming more and more automated, and intelligent control systems are gradually replacing such an employee.
PARKER
More and more manufacturers are adding intelligent parking systems to the basic equipment of their vehicles, thereby automating the work tasks of this profession. After 2020, the use of artificial intelligence in driving will be present in more than 80% of new cars. Parking management is also automated - security cameras, automatic barriers and parking meters can cope with this function.
CALL CENTER OPERATOR
Simple communicator programs can already massively answer users' questions. Further development of technology will lead to the replacement of a person with an intelligent program that generates answers to any question on a specific topic based on a database.
POSTMAN
Correspondence goes digital, parcels are delivered by logistics companies. In developed countries, automated post offices are becoming widespread. The postman profession will gradually become a thing of the past, remaining more of a tourist curiosity (like a coachman of carriages).
HIGH PROFESSIONAL AGRICULTURAL WORKER
The abundance of automated, robotic complexes and control systems used in different types agriculture, leads to the displacement of people from agricultural production. This process has been going on for many decades, there are no prerequisites for stopping it.
COURIER
Courier drones are slowly entering the market: in the Aviation section, we gave examples of the effective use of unmanned technologies to deliver orders to customers. Drones will be able to deliver packages faster and even more environmentally friendly, since most of them run on electricity and do not pollute the environment.
MUSEUM'S HALL SUPERVISOR
Automatic security systems will keep order, and special applications will help you navigate the halls - so museum keepers can only stay to create an atmosphere.
PRODUCT STORAGE MACHINER
Unmanned control systems are becoming more sophisticated every year. First of all, they will be installed on subway trains and freight rolling stock, while a person will be connected only in the event of force majeure situations. After 2020, self-driving with a freight train will become the industry standard.
DPS INSPECTOR
The development of intelligent traffic control systems (traffic lights, security barriers, security cameras, the ability to connect to any vehicle via wireless communication, etc.) over time leads to complete automation and robotization of the functions of this employee.
SECURITY GUARD
Security standards will change, and smart automated control systems will replace classic security solutions. Information on several objects will be sent to a single control center, and rapid response teams will be able to solve situations that computer systems are unable to cope with. Therefore, small private security companies will lose their relevance. In addition, the functions of a security guard can be performed by a drone with a built-in video camera and motion and heat sensors.
SHAKHTER, MINER
These blue-collar professions are leaving both due to the complication of the processes of geological exploration and production (and, consequently, their gradual robotization), and due to the fact that the demand for raw materials extracted by the mine method is decreasing.
Packer, cooker
In the next 10-15 years, these food and chemical workers will begin to replace robotic systems that improve the intensity, safety and quality of production. In 20-25 years, bio-3D printing capabilities will allow you to move production to your home and “print” any food and chemical products you need, buying only the formula and the right printing powder.
DRILLER
The conditions for mining and energy production are becoming more difficult as easy-to-extract resources come to an end. Drilling in the future will be carried out in areas where it is difficult or impossible for people to work (the Far North, shelves, etc.). The development of robotics and satellite control systems makes it possible to remove humans from the mining cycle, while increasing the volume and intensity. The romantic profession of drillers will be replaced by robotic drilling operators, often working remotely.
PRORAB
Over time, this profession will begin to "wither away" and will be replaced by a foreman-watcher (see the "Construction" section of the first part of "Atlas").
TRANSPORT TERMINAL WORKER
There are already information robots that help passengers navigate the terminals, and special vehicles - for example, cleaners or towing vehicles - are becoming more automated. In the future, they can be controlled remotely, so airports and train stations will be able to manage with much less staff.
SEAMSTRESS
The development of cheap 3D printing will allow, over time, to quickly produce clothes and shoes with specified parameters at home. The seamstress will be in demand rather as a piece and rather expensive specialist for work on order. For more details, see the section "Light industry".
PORTER
At the Japanese Kitakyushu airport, robotic porters have already appeared, capable of moving luggage weighing up to 50 kg and responding to voice commands. A American company Five Elements Robotics came up with the first
a sleepy robot assistant Budgee, which can carry various loads behind its owner - for example, purchases at a home appliance store. These technologies are rapidly developing and becoming cheaper, and a person will definitely not be able to compete with a robot in speed and endurance.
CONCRETE MAN
The proliferation of 3D printing and other innovative construction technologies will reduce the need for labor on the construction site. Classic blue-collar jobs will be replaced by construction operators
3D printers and other equipment.
DRY CLEANER
Robotic dry cleaners are already being used to clean car interiors, and White Conveyors, a specialist in high-tech clothing sorting and storage, offers automated system for dry cleaners, where customers can hand over and receive items through a special terminal, and a smart conveyor belt minimizes the need for human intervention. So there will soon be no need for live workers.
WAITER
Restaurants with robotic waiters are already popular in Japan. But since communication is an important part of the service in this profession, robots will be able to displace people in networked establishments, where speed and accuracy of order fulfillment are most important, but not in high-end restaurants.
TRAINER
"Technical" coaches who help athletes practice certain actions (for example, hitting the ball) will not be needed in the future - the coach will become a coach who monitors both the sportsman's fitness and the choice of the correct game strategy. And sports robots and simulators will help to polish the technique of a jump or serve.

More and more professions and occupations are given to robots and machines. Market economy calls for efficiency, which is why business or store owners replace a person with an automaton that does not need to be paid and that is not prone to make mistakes. In fact, this is nothing new - and with the development of technology, some professions are simply replacing others. Look At Me recalled 12 professions that have disappeared due to the development of technology or will disappear very soon.

6 professions that
have already disappeared

Alarm clock man


The profession of the alarm clock man (in English it was called knocker-up, so we offer a free translation) existed in England and Ireland during the industrial revolution - and disappeared only in the 20s of the last century. Entrepreneurs hired such people to wake up workers before the shift: an alarm-clock man walked around the city in the morning and knocked with a long stick (most often it was made of bamboo) on the windows of houses. Typically, this work was done by the elderly, who received only a few pence a week for it. It's not hard to guess what technology made the profession meaningless: the appearance of an ordinary alarm clock.

Lecturer


We are used to the idea that a "lecturer" is a person who teaches at a university or gives public lectures, but at the beginning of the 20th century this term was used to denote a strange form of entertainment for workers. The lecturers worked in cigar factories - they were people who read newspapers and other texts aloud to the workers so that they would not get bored. Cigar production was monotonous: day after day, workers manually rolled cigars from tobacco leaves, so the workers needed to be entertained. The profession appeared in Cuba, but was most popular in New York. Lecturers favored leftist political manifestos and texts on workers' unions. The owners of the factories did not like this, and in the 1920s radio replaced the lecturers.

Iceman


Before refrigerators spread in the 1940s, people stored food in glaciers - ice cabinets. They needed ice, which gave rise to two activities, which were most often performed by the same worker. Firstly, the ice was cut from frozen lakes and rivers, and secondly, several times a week blocks of ice were delivered to their homes: people hung signs on their houses so that the ice carrier knew exactly how much they needed. Despite the fact that the profession has almost disappeared with the advent of refrigerators, ice is still delivered - for example, to restaurants.

Rafting


In the 19th century, trees felled by lumberjacks were floated down the rivers to sawmills. In winter, felled trees formed on the frozen surface of the river, in spring the ice melted and the logs began to float downstream. The raftsmen walked along the bank with long sticks, directing the logs and removing various obstacles from their path. By the beginning of the 20th century, with the spread railroad and the advent of portable sawmills, the profession came to naught, but remained in the popular and mass consciousness: for example, the song "The Log Driver" s Waltz was written about rafters, based on which a cartoon was filmed in Canada in 1979.

Lamplighter


Before the advent of electric lanterns, many big cities were lit with gas lanterns, and they had to be lit - and this was done by a special person. The lamplighters used long ladders to climb the lantern and then lit the lanterns with matches or an oil lamp. For example, in New York at the beginning of the 20th century, lamplighters lit 200-300 lanterns per hour. The profession did not disappear with the advent of electric lighting, but even earlier: gas companies came up with a mechanism that automatically lit lanterns at a certain time, without the help of people.

Telephone operator


When the first commercial telephone line was turned on in the late 19th century, teenage boys were initially hired as operators. But they put on pranks and fooled the callers, so companies started hiring women - and the profession of telephone operator for a long time became a woman's. The telephone operators sat at a special corded board, switching and connecting different telephone lines to each other. Telephone operators worked this way manually until the 1980s, when the system was used for international calls.

6 professions that will soon disappear

Cashier in a supermarket


The hardest and fastest of all robots will hit not factories and production, but retail... Why keep a man behind the counter when everyone can sell vending machines? The first supermarkets without sellers, with only one self-service and electronic cash registers began to appear in the late 2000s - and they are only growing. For example, in the UK, the first such store appeared in 2009, and now every 6th supermarket in the country hires only 1 person to monitor the work of robotic cashiers and repair them if necessary.

Conveyor worker


However, work at the plant is also under threat. The people working on the assembly line are being replaced by machines because they do everything more efficiently and more accurately. This is best illustrated by the manufacture of semiconductor processors. They are used in almost every electronic device in the world, but modern transistors are so small (100,000 times smaller than a human hair) that a person cannot cope with them - and instead of him an automated and finely tuned machine works. According to some estimates, in 5 years the number of people working in assembly line production will decrease by 32%, and about half of them will be in factories that produce processors.

Farmer


WITH agriculture many people have the most romantic ideas: in order for food to be tasty, people must certainly grow it, work with the earth with their hands, so that everything is their own, “organic”. Unfortunately, technology beats people here too. More and more work is done by machines, the industry is ruled by large, automated farms, and the owners of these farms can save on resources - primarily on workers. While farming is far from disappearing, and small private farms providing food for a small number of buyers will always be popular, in the United States alone, the number of farmers will decline by 10% over the next 5 years. (or even 20%).

Travel agent


According to a survey conducted by Tradedoubler back in 2013, 62% of people plan a trip and look for air tickets on their own, without resorting to travel agents. Travel agencies have no doubt been hit by the development of the internet, with more and more people using online services to plan their vacations. Why entrust your vacation to someone, if you can find cheap air tickets on the Internet yourself and instead of a hotel rent an apartment on Aribnb? According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of travel agents in the United States will decline by 12% by 2022. Even US President Barack Obama several years ago said that, in his opinion, the profession of a travel agent has lost its meaning and is outdated.

Postal worker


Work on by paper mail suffers for several reasons at once. First, of course, because of the proliferation of e-mail: in 2012 there were 3 billion e-mail accounts in the world, now there are probably more of them. Since 2006, the number of sent paper letters fell by 500 million. Secondly, the work of the mail itself is automated: for example, such an exercise as manual sorting of mail loses its meaning. Some organizations, such as the USPS, are coming up with ways to deliver mail as efficiently as possible and reduce resources: for example, in some American cities, entire neighborhoods use shared mailboxes so that postmen do not have to go around many houses at once.

Video rental employee


A simple but in its own way iconic profession of the 20th century: a video rental worker, a person who rented videotapes, and later a DVD, and who, according to pop culture, should have had extensive knowledge of cinema. Quentin Tarantino worked in video distribution before becoming a director. This profession has been praised by many pop culture works, for example, the movie "Clerks" or the animated series "The Simpsons". Now, of course, it is clear that this profession will soon completely lose its relevance: no one has been renting cassettes and discs for a long time, but downloading and streaming films on their computer. A few years ago in America, the largest network of Blockbuster rentals closed, but some experts believe that the agony of video rentals will last a long time - and they will slowly disappear.

 

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