Agricultural development in Russia: realities and prospects. Agricultural development in Russia: realities and prospects Increasing the role of the state in the development of Russian agriculture

The past year has become a record for Russian crop production in terms of several indicators at once: yield and gross harvest for a number of agricultural products, as well as export volumes. In 2017, a record harvest was obtained for grain and leguminous crops.

According to preliminary data from Rosstat, the gross grain harvest in Russia increased by 11% and amounted to 118.5 million tons in weight after processing. After the last five years of stable growth, in 2017 the gross harvest of wheat increased again - by 17%, to 85.8 million tons.

In 2017, the production of barley also increased by 14%, the yield of which amounted to 20.6 million tons. This is a record figure since 2008, when 23.1 million tons were collected. According to preliminary data, the harvest of corn for grain amounted to 12.1 million tons, which is 21% lower than the harvest in 2016, but is the third largest crop in modern Russian history. Among the achievements of crop production in 2017, one can also highlight a record soybean harvest - 3.6 million tons (+ 14% compared to 2016).
In 2017, a sugar beet harvest close to the record was also harvested - 48.2 million tons, which is only 6% less than the absolute record of the last year.

The high harvest in 2017 is primarily associated with the increased acreage, as well as the abundance of moisture during the growing season, which provided favorable conditions for crop growth. The renewal of agricultural machinery by many farms and the increased use of fertilizers were also important.

PRICES

In recent years, prices for grains and oilseeds have been declining due to high yields and high world stocks. Thus, the average world price for wheat in 2017 amounted to 7.4 thousand rubles / ton, which is 37% lower than in 2016. The average world price for corn fell by 21% - at the end of 2017 it amounted to 9.3 thousand rubles / ton. Also, prices for barley, sunflower and soybeans decreased - by 18, 17 and 15%, respectively.

A similar decline occurred in the Russian market. Most of all, the average price fell for sunflower (by 26% - to 17.4 thousand rubles / ton) and corn (by 23% - to 7.8 thousand rubles / ton). The average price for wheat on the Russian market in 2017 amounted to 8 thousand rubles / ton, which is 19% lower than in 2016.

EXPORT

Over the past five years, the volume of export deliveries of Russian grain has grown by 2.3 times. In 2017, exports amounted to 43.6 million tons, which is 28% more than in 2016. The largest share in exports is traditionally wheat - about 70–75%. From 2013 to 2017, the volume of supplies increased 2.4 times. As a result of an increase in gross harvests in 2017, wheat exports amounted to 32.9 million tons (+ 31%), barley - 5.1 million tons (+ 73%). Exports could have been greater, but the possibilities of rail transportation and the capacity of ports did not allow the full potential of exports to be fully realized.

The last five years major countries - importers of Russian grain were Egypt and Turkey, whose convenient geographical location and logistical proximity to Russia predetermine high volumes mutual trade... Until 2015, Turkey accounted for about 41% of imports, and Egypt - 30%. Since 2015, due to the deterioration of trade relations between the countries, the volume of exports to Turkey began to decline, and in 2016 the share of Turkey was already 22%, and Egypt became the main importer with a share of 44%. In 2017, the situation partially leveled off: 7.9 million tons of grain were exported to Egypt (share - 43%), to Turkey - 5.2 million tons (share - 28%).

IMPORT

The only crop for which Russia is a net importer is soybeans. For a long time there was no soybean cultivation culture in Russia. Seeds, technology, knowledge and techniques were missing. With the rise in meat production, the need for a source of high protein content has grown significantly. The main importers of soybeans to Russia are South American countries: Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay.

Due to the peculiarities of the climate - the lack of dry sunny days - in Russia there is not enough durum wheat for its own consumption. Russia imports high protein food wheat and exports less hard food grains and forage.

FORECAST FOR 2018

Ministry agriculture The USA predicts * the volume of world cereal production in the 2017/2018 season at 2.6 billion tons, of which wheat will amount to 758.8 million tons. World soybean production will amount to 340.9 million tons, which is 10.5 million tons less than the 2016/17 season. The forecast of world wheat exports in the 2017/2018 season is estimated at 182.0 million tons, of which 37.5 million tons will be exported by Russia, which will produce about 85 million tons of agricultural crops. World
soybean exports will amount to 150.6 million tons, almost half of which is exported by Brazil. Egypt and Turkey are expected to purchase 8.6 and 5.9 million tons of Russian grain, which will account for 19 and 13% of all Russian exports, respectively.

The significant export potential of Russian grain is currently limited throughput specialized grain terminals of ports, as well as a rolling stock of grain wagons. To solve this problem, the proposals of the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia are aimed at creating new transshipment grain terminals in the next three years, from which the products will go abroad. Thus, by 2020 in ports Of the Far East, in the Azov-Black Sea and Baltic basins, new grain terminals with a total capacity of about 44-54 million tons may appear, which corresponds to the volume of annual grain exports from Russia.

MOSCOW, Dec 23 - RIA Novosti. The outgoing year for agriculture can be called anything but simple. The difficulties were different: both within the country and during export; they were associated with both the weather and the human factor.

Nevertheless, either due to these difficulties, or in spite of, the domestic agro-industrial complex in 2017 set new and various records, providing more than one reason for pride for the Russian authorities.

But if 2017 was such a busy year, what can you expect from next year? Will it be as challenging? It's hard to say. Who, for example, in December last year, could have guessed that such uncomfortable weather this spring could lead to such an outstanding harvest of 130 million tons of grain?

On the other hand, the tasks that will need to be addressed in 2018 are already visible - these are the development of the logistics infrastructure and support for domestic demand.

Let's catch up and overtake America

The main agrarian event of 2017 for Russia is undoubtedly new records of grain export and harvest. The first record was set at the end of June: according to the results of the 2016-2017 agricultural year (from July 1, 2016 to June 30, 2017), grain exports from Russia amounted to 35.474 million tons, which is 4.7% more than in the previous season.

Wheat supplies abroad last season increased by 10% - to 27.075 million tons. These indicators updated the achievements of the previous agricultural year: then the country exported 33.9 million tons of grain, including 25 million tons of wheat.

And although Russia lost the first place in the world in wheat supplies last season (the United States exported about 29 million tons), both Russian authorities, analysts, and even the United States Department of Agriculture expect Russia to return to the title of leader this agricultural year.

The Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation expects that grain exports from the Russian Federation in the current agricultural year will amount to 45 million tons, and wheat supplies may reach 40 million tons. According to the Federal Customs Service (FCS) of the Russian Federation, as of December 13, grain exports from the Russian Federation increased by 34% compared to the previous season - up to 24.5 million tons. Wheat was exported 33.2% more - 19.074 million tons.

By the way, one should not forget about the outstanding results shown by the export of Russian sunflower oil... Although Russia is in second place after Ukraine in this indicator (at the end of the 2016-2017 season, more than 2.2 million tons of sunflower oil were shipped), the achievement of this level, coupled with the expansion of sales markets, can be considered a success of the Russian agro-industrial complex.

"Tomato Wars"

The outgoing year was also remembered for another event related to export - a very long one. The supply of Russian grain, and other products as well, could suffer from the restrictions that Turkey introduced and canceled during the year - and this country is one of the main importers of domestic agricultural products in general and grain in particular.

Russia has imposed an embargo on the supply of a number of products from Turkey since January 1, 2016, in response to a Turkish Air Force attack on a Russian Su-24 in Syria in late November 2015. In addition, the Rosselkhoznadzor in 2016 banned the supply of Turkish tomatoes, peppers, pomegranates, eggplants, lettuce and iceberg lettuce, zucchini and pumpkins to the Russian Federation.

Since the fall of last year, the restrictions have been gradually lifted. As a result, since the beginning of June 2017, Russia has retained only the ban on the import of tomatoes, as well as the restrictions of the Rosselkhoznadzor. In parallel, negotiations were underway to open russian market for Turkish tomatoes - and the domestic market is very important for Turkish producers.

And while the countries were negotiating the lifting of all trade restrictions, the Turkish authorities took measures that - directly or indirectly - pushed Russia to lift their bans. For example, since March 15, Turkey has changed the procedure for the import of certain types of agricultural products for processing within the country, including wheat and sunflower oil.

At the same time, Russia was not included in the list of countries eligible for duty-free supplies. Later, Turkey announced the lifting of these restrictions, however, at the end of May, several Russian and Turkish agricultural associations reported that Ankara had introduced new barriers to trade. russian companies the number of import licenses for the inward processing regime was limited, which entitles them to duty-free import of goods.

Since October 9, Turkey has introduced new restrictions on the supply of agricultural products from the Russian Federation: the certification of invoices presented in customs services when importing wheat, sunflower oil, corn and a number of other goods, the country of origin of which is Russia.

Ultimately, Russia partially lifted the ban on the import of Turkish tomatoes - by the end of 2017, Turkey can supply no more than 50 thousand tons of tomatoes to the Russian Federation. However, there has been no evidence of the lifting of Turkey's October restrictions. And all these events were unofficially referred to as the "tomato war".

The Taming of the Shrew

About the history of another record - grain harvest - we can say unequivocally: "This thing is stronger than Goethe's Faust." And the point here is not only the significance of the very fact of achieving the highest harvest in the entire history of Russia, but also how exactly this peak was conquered. And the ascent was not easy.

The 2016 harvest amounted to 120.7 million tons of grain - the highest figure in recent Russian history. The first official forecasts of the Ministry of Agriculture for the harvest of this year - they usually appear in April, when it becomes clear how the winter crops survived the winter - were quite accurate: more than 100 million tons, more than 110 million.

However, the weather made some adjustments: April and May this year were very cold, in the regions, even in these months, there was wet snow. And the usual rain was a frequent visitor in the fields. Already in May, the Agrarian Ministry stated that the rate of sowing of spring crops in 2017 lags behind last year.

This posed a threat to the harvest. In early June, the Minister of Agriculture Alexander Tkachev admitted: due to bad weather conditions and a protracted spring, the grain harvest this year will exceed 100 million tons, but will not exceed 110 million.

But, as they say, if it has disappeared somewhere, it has arrived somewhere. The winter crops survived the past winter quite well, and the prolonged rains filled the earth with moisture.

In July, Petr Chekmarev, the head of the crop production department of the Ministry of Agriculture, speaking at the Field Day in Kazan (ironically, to the accompaniment of a powerful rain) recalled 1978: there was heavy harvesting, heavy rains, but then Russia (as part of the USSR) reaped a record crop - 127 , 4 million tons. A good harvest, according to Chekmarev, could be seen this year, if the weather smiled at the farmers in August-September. His words were prophetic. The weather in autumn was really good, and with the course of the autumn work it became clear: there will be a new record.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of December 18, the country harvested 140.4 million tons of grain in bunker weight, and the harvest in net weight, according to Rosstat, in 2017 amounted to 134.1 million tons. This is 11% more than last year and 5.3% more than the historical record of 1978.

That the coming year?

The answer to this question from a December 2017 perspective: nothing seems to be wrong.

Agricultural production in Russia is growing, and there is no reason for it to decline sharply. Financing of the agro-industrial complex from the budget next year will remain at the level of the outgoing year - it will amount to 241.986 billion rubles. If grain exports do not fail, then at least one record is guaranteed for the country.

So far, the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation assumes a harvest in 2018 at the level of 110.6 million tons of grain - not a small figure at all. On the other hand, collecting high harvests for several years in a row, Russia may face a decline in world grain prices, which, in turn, can cause a reduction in the profitability of domestic farmers.

"In a situation of a sharp increase in production, indeed, there is often a decrease in prices on the world market. But Russian products are competitive, therefore, in the long term, the share of Russian exporters will grow," said Daria Snitko, head of the Gazprombank Center for Economic Forecasting.

In turn, Elena Razumova, an expert at the Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation, pointed out that by the end of 2017, it became obvious that the logistics infrastructure was not ready for ultra-high yields, both in terms of transportation and storage of grain.

In addition, industry participants have been saying for several years that the dependence on imported capital goods in Russian agriculture raises concerns.

"Many agricultural producers do not use domestic seeds, and some are significantly dependent on imported seed material, in particular beet growers. Solving the problem of localizing the production of means of production - seeds, equipment, veterinary preparations and much more - will be relevant in the coming years," Snitko said.

In turn, Razumova from the Analytical Center admitted that a decrease in profitability in key sectors of the agro-industrial complex - these are grain, oilseeds and sugar segments - could become a problem. "To support it, the state will have to actively stimulate investments," she said.

A record grain harvest and fairly good indicators for other agricultural crops, as well as an increase in livestock production, allowed agriculture to grow by 2.4%. However, such high base against the background of relatively low prices, stagnating demand and a lack of new drivers will most likely provoke a slowdown in the industry this year.

According to the first estimate Rosstat, Russia's GDP grew by 1.5% in 2017 after contracting by 0.2% in 2016. Agriculture overtook the economy for the fifth time in a row, adding 2.4% after 4.8% a year earlier. True, both results can still be corrected: by mid-February, the final data were not taken into account. annual reporting, including small and medium enterprises. In addition, in the spring, the statistics department will obviously increase the harvest in 2017: the harvesting of corn and sunflower continued in winter. True, it is unlikely that the GDP and the agricultural sector will eventually reach the figures that the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade and Ministry of Agriculture... The first, at the end of last year, calculated that economic growth would exceed 2%. Agriculture Minister Alexander Tkachev hoped that by the end of 2017, the industry would add at least 3%, or even all 4%. Although the official forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development and the Ministry of Agriculture regarding the dynamics of agricultural production fluctuated in the range from zero to 1.2%, while the agro-program included an indicator of 1.7%. A twofold decrease in the growth rate of the agro-industrial complex to the level of 2016, despite the renewal of the record for grain harvest, is due to the fact that relatively low prices for agricultural products remain in the world, and the strengthening of the ruble exchange rate also affected.

Livestock grew faster

The volume of agricultural production at the end of 2017, taking into account the adjustment of monthly indicators, exceeded 5.6 trillion rubles. Including crop production accounted for about 3 trillion rubles, livestock - 2.6 trillion rubles. Contrary to fears, the grain harvest not only did not decline due to the weather, but also turned out to be a record one, which became one of the key factors in the industry's growth. The harvest reached 134.1 million tons, which is 11.2% more than in 2016. At the same time, by the last decade of December 2017, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, more than 410 thousand hectares, or 14% of corn crops had to be harvested. Also, almost 990 thousand hectares of sunflower remained unthreaded, therefore Rosstat previously recorded a decrease in its collection. In addition, the harvests of sugar beets and potatoes decreased. In general, the crop sector added 2.1%, while in 2016 it grew by 7.6%.

The dynamics in animal husbandry in 2017 turned out to be higher than a year earlier - 2.8% compared to 1.5%. For the first time since 2012, the industry has grown more than crop production, and in contrast to the previous eight years, the production of not only meat and eggs, but also milk made a positive contribution. The gross milk yield in all farms increased by 1.2%, or 361.7 thousand tons, to 31.1 million tons. The production of commercial milk, according to "", increased by 2.8%, reaching 21.2 million tons In the meat segment, the poultry industry regained its lost leadership in terms of growth dynamics, adding 6.9% after slowing down to plus 1.9% in 2016, while the production of pigs for slaughter increased by 5% against 8.7% in 2016. By cattle Rosstat preliminarily recorded no changes, a year earlier the sector's indicator fell by 1.8%.

According to the forecast of the Institute of Agricultural Market Studies ( ICAR), in March, when adjusting the crop data for 2017 Rosstat may add about 1 million tons of grain due to unaccounted corn, and an additional estimate for sunflower will be made. As a result, carryover stocks of grain by the end of the 2017/18 season will reach a record 26.6 million tons, of which 19 million tons will be wheat, the CEO estimates ICAR Dmitry Rylko. Thanks to the "frenzied" exports, they will decrease, but there is a high probability that there will be very large balances in the Volga region and Siberia, but this is also due to the fact that most of the grain of the intervention fund is stored there. Although at the end of 2017 the growth rate of the agro-industrial complex turned out to be lower than in 2016, in general this is still a very decent result, which the industry can be proud of, he is sure.

The year was not easy for the agricultural sector, says Vitaly Sheremet, partner, head of the competence center in the agro-industrial complex of KPMG in Russia and the CIS. A high grain yield, world price dynamics and unresolved internal problems with grain logistics negatively affected domestic prices, so grain producers significantly fell short of the planned financial indicators over the season, and some even went into negative territory or stopped selling in the hope of a rebound in prices. An additional problem for traders was the changes in the market related to the signing of the Charter in the field of agricultural products turnover, Sheremet comments.

Companies of the next redistribution, traditionally focused on the domestic market (meat, milk), against the background of the dynamics of the cost of grain and fodder, turned out to be a winner, since they managed to improve the production cost. “At the same time, the savings were not passed along the chain to the consumer: although the prices on the shelves decreased, in particular for poultry meat, they rather reflected the problem of overproduction than the improvement of the producers' economy,” the expert believes.

Last year was more favorable for pig farmers than for poultry farmers, thinks the head of strategic marketing of the group “ Cherkizovo»Andrey Dalnov. “This is true for our company and, I think, for the market as a whole and is explained by the dynamics of retail prices,” he says. According to Rosstat, the pork price index in the first quarter of 2017 decreased by 1.5%, and for broilers - increased by 4%, as a result, demand partially shifted in favor of the first, and consumer inertia lasted until the fourth quarter of last year. In December 2017, the prices for poultry meat were almost 7% lower than a year earlier, pork (except for boneless meat) was on average 2% cheaper, it follows from the data Rosstat... "Now the ratio of retail prices for different types of meat shows that the consumer must" migrate "back to chicken, so it can be assumed that this year will be difficult for pig farmers, but perhaps their situation will partially correct the ban on the import of Brazilian pork" Dalnov.

2017 was a year of stable development, says the CEO of the group “ Prodo"Peter Ilyukhin. True, the decline in prices for poultry and pork affected the margins of market participants, but it also provoked an increase in the consumption of these types of meat, he says. “For example, prices for poultry meat in the second half of the year fell by 15%. At the same time, the volume of consumption increased by 3.1% over the year, pork began to be consumed by 4.5% more, and in general, for meat, the indicator increased by 3%, "he cites the data, specifying that demand in the meat processing segment during the year did not increase.


The dynamics of agricultural production invariably outstrips GDP growth, which is expected and logical, given the state support for investments in the industry, as well as the market situation, which until recently was very promising in terms of profitability, says Daria Snitko, head of the Gazprombank Center for Economic Forecasting. “Our Center has been saying for several years that the food market in 2014, against the background of the devaluation of the ruble and the introduction of the pro-embargo, received a significant impetus for development: the growth in prices for the sector's products outstripped the increase in costs, which contributed to the recovery of a number of industries and the“ accumulation ”of a certain financial cushion. leaders, ”she says.

At the same time, it was logical to assume that this situation will not last forever and profitability will decline. The strengthening of the ruble last year, as well as significant gains in import substitution, reducing the deficit and even overproduction of certain types of products, such as sugar, have led to food deflation. The farmers will have to live with this new phenomenon in 2018, Snitko is sure: profitability will continue to fall, and the financial situation of the industry will depend on the effectiveness of the struggle to reduce costs. In addition, all these processes led to fierce competition, first in the poultry market, then in pork and sugar. In the coming years, it will worsen in the segments of the production of raw milk, vegetables, oilseeds, the expert adds.

Competition between poultry and pork producers increased last year, as the broiler market has already reached saturation levels, and pork is close to that, Ilyukhin agrees. In addition, pork imports to Russia increased in 2017, while domestic production also increased. “Now the advantages are given to those companies that already have strong brands, and this applies not only to meat processing, but also to sales of packaged meat and cutting,” he said.

Need to be recycled

Interesting and less volatile than agricultural production is the consumer sector - the production of products with high added value, says Vitaly Sheremet. This is true for both domestic and foreign markets. “I think our producers are realizing this and are starting to invest more actively in processing and in working with the market,” he notes. - It seems to me that this direction is still underestimated in our country, and serious growth is possible here. Cheese is the most obvious example. "
The production of cheese and other dairy products has the greatest potential, agrees Timur Nigmatullin. There is also potential in the cultivation of greenhouse vegetables and herbs, in winemaking. However, he adds that, in general, it is difficult to talk about trends in agriculture, since the industry is extremely unpredictable, especially since most of the country's regions are classified as risky farming zones. And the competitiveness of the industry in terms of developing export potential is under a very big question, especially in crop production due to the ban on GMOs, the analyst said.

It will be difficult to repeat the result

In 2018, the agro-industrial complex will not be easy to continue positive dynamics, although in January Alexander Tkachev said that he expects growth at a level of at least 3%. The forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development is plus 0.5% in agriculture and 2.1-2.2% for the entire economy. True, in April the ministry plans to prepare a new forecast based on the oil price of $ 50-60 per barrel, while in the current baseline and target scenarios, $ 43.8 / barrel is provided.

In 2018, for a number of reasons, the same increase in agricultural production as in 2017, most likely, will not happen, ICAR while predicting the dynamics at the level of 1.3%. “We have a modest estimate for this year, since the starting base is very high,” explains Dmitry Rylko. In crop production in 2017 there was a record harvest of grain and sugar beets, very good harvests of oilseeds, which will be extremely difficult to repeat, and growth in livestock and poultry farming will begin to fade. At the same time, only the weather can affect both the decrease in the final indicator of the industry development and its increase, the expert suggests. “I don’t see anything else on the horizon for lowering the forecast, and for raising it, too, only if the weather is favorable, we can expect that growth will be greater,” he comments. Other factors, such as government support for agricultural producers, do not have an immediate impact on the growth rate of the agro-industrial complex. In general, the industry will face a difficult year, the expert is sure.


In 2018, Gazprombank's Center for Economic Forecasting still expects a decline in agricultural production. The main reason is the likely reduction in gross collection relative to the 2017 record. Despite the fact that there was a decrease in the sowing of winter crops in the Center and in the Volga region, wheat took about the same amount as for the harvest last year, and the state of winter crops by mid-February did not cause serious concerns, Rylko recalls. Therefore, if we talk about the contours of the next season, then while the most realistic scenario seems to be grain harvest at the level of 120-130 million tons, estimates ICAR. Ministry of Agriculture in early February, he predicted a harvest of 106 million tons, and later raised the bar to "at least 110 million tons." “We still do not believe in the figure of 106 million tons: there are no grounds or signs that Russia will reap such a modest harvest,” Rylko notes. If the mark of 120-130 million tons is reached, then the export potential will be 45-50 million tons, and ending stocks - 24.6-26.6 million tons.

Season starting price ICAR predicts at $ 190-192 / t (FOB Novorossiysk). According to Rylko, this year another increase in interest in grains and oilseeds is expected in the world, as we exit the period of low prices for them and move to more attractive values \u200b\u200bin dollar terms. The domestic sugar beet sector will have to improve efficiency and solve infrastructure problems for the development of exports. Slow, hard and thoughtful work will continue on meat, the expert adds.

In 2018, poultry producers will find themselves in the most difficult situation, says Daria Snitko. This segment is not yet able to fully realize export opportunities, although the weakening of the ruble this year will improve the position of exporters, and if demand within the country grows, it will be slow. “Perhaps we will see the consolidation of the industry, the departure of some players from the market. These are the consequences of overproduction, which in a couple of years may face other segments that have been actively growing since 2010, ”says Snitko.

She adds that much will depend on export policies and household income levels, which can spur demand growth. However, while there is no feeling that the situation is improving, the expert draws attention. “Therefore, it is hardly worth counting on a significant increase in effective demand, but manufacturers and the distribution chain can find reserves for growth, eliminating the traditional problems for the sector with quality and logistics, thereby increasing their sales,” says Snitko.

As for the influence of macroeconomic factors on the industry, the situation remains difficult and poorly predictable, Rylko draws attention. “For example, regarding the increase in incomes of the population, so far we see that, despite the renewal of a small economic growth, there was another drawdown, and even according to the optimistic forecast of the Ministry of Finance in 2020 we will not be able to return to the level of the base 2013, at best we will reach the indicators of 2011, ”he notes.


According to Otkritie Broker analyst Timur Nigmatullin, the expected increase in household incomes within 1-2.5% is likely to support the consumption of dairy products, pork and poultry. Demand for meat, natural semi-finished meat products and dairy products will gradually rise, agrees Snitko.

2018 is unlikely to be an easy year, Ilyukhin fears. It is not worth expecting an explosive development of markets, since there is no activation of consumer demand and an increase in the purchasing power of the population. Dalnov concludes that the sharp drops in demand from pork to broiler depending on the level of retail prices are explained by the fact that people continue to become poorer. The decline in real disposable income in 2017 was 1.7%. “Further impoverishment of the population is a risk not only for the industry, but also for the economy as a whole,” he emphasizes. “It will be more difficult for manufacturers to increase production of value-added products if the forecasts for economic growth and population incomes do not come true.” The Ministry of Economic Development expects that this year the income of the population will add 2.3-2.4%, however, by the end of 2017, the department also expected positive dynamics at the level of 1.3%.

This year in “ AFG National"Do not see any serious potential threats to their crop business, says the holding's general director Yuri Belov. The experience gained by the company allows us to take into account possible changes in weather conditions in technological processesand the quality of business processes ensures high economic stability of the holding. If we take the macroeconomic aspect, then, in general, in recent years, the growth rate of the agricultural sector has significantly exceeded other sectors of the economy, and positive dynamics continues, the top manager believes.

The main macroeconomic factor that will affect the industry this year is the ruble exchange rate, says Daria Snitko. Gazprombank's Center for Economic Forecasting expects it to weaken slightly to 60-62 rubles / $ 1 amid forecasts for oil price correction and in response to capital outflow dynamics.
The ruble exchange rate remains important for exporters, agrees Vitaly Sheremet. “There are expectations that the period of relative stability may end after the elections,” he warns. “On the other hand, the dynamics of oil prices provided unexpected support to the ruble, and this trend may also continue.” Another important factor is the dynamics of the key rate of the Central Bank, but for this factor to work, the result of the rate cut should be affordable loans, the expert is sure. However, Andrei Klepach believes that interest rates will still remain extremely high even if the key rate of the Central Bank is reduced, therefore, a serious gap in the profitability of Russian manufacturers and Western competitors will remain.
At the same time, a relatively strong ruble and a decrease in loan rates following the key rate of the Central Bank will support the demand for imported goods, including the means of production in the agro-industrial complex, Timur Nigmatullin draws attention. On the other hand, the strengthening of the ruble will restrain the export potential.

Milk needs to be saved again

Vitaly Sheremet considers milk producers to be one of the few beneficiaries of 2017, the prices of which have increased in the last 1.5-2 years, which has improved the economy of dairy projects. As a result, there is a significant amount of investment in the industry from both internal and external investors. Judging by the announced projects, the positive trend in the sector will continue in 2018 and possibly in 2019, he adds.

However, Dmitry Rylko, on the contrary, believes that the dairy industry risks becoming a serious problem for the entire agricultural industry and regulators. “We are ringing the bells because the entire growth of commercial milk production in 2017 went into stocks. Moreover, if in terms of raw materials we added 700 thousand tons, then stocks in terms of milk increased by 800 thousand tons, the expert compares. “In terms of dry milk, stocks doubled production, the situation is extremely risky, since the cost of raw materials at the time of formation of stocks was very high.”

In order to prevent the development of negative trends, measures are needed to regulate the market, I am sure executive Director "" Artem Belov. First, the state needs to support domestic demand - to fight counterfeiting, change the public procurement system, start a domestic food aid program, and promote the benefits of dairy products. An important measure should be the protection of the domestic market and ensuring the transparency of the supply of dairy products within the EAEU and from Ukraine, the expert is sure. In addition, it is necessary to develop export, which is one of the most underestimated areas. According to Belov, now foreign supplies of milk products are estimated at about $ 300 million, but the potential is many times greater.

Yuri Belov

General Director of "AFG National"

Last year, we did not have any serious problems, if we do not take into account the cold weather, but our specialists traditionally foreseen their actions in cases of cold weather, rain, heat or drought. The experience we have accumulated both in field work and in obtaining borrowed money and state support ruled out possible disruptions in the production schedule. We also received all the required subsidies. The main problem traditionally lies in the budget deficit, which is why the amount of state support is lower than the calculated values.
Our rice harvest amounted to 186 thousand tons - 4 thousand tons more than in 2016, but due to bad weather during the sowing season, we were unable to reach the planned targets. But in terms of potatoes and vegetables, we achieved the expected results, although our vegetable growers were prevented by the cold weather in the first half of summer, this had a slight effect on the final harvest. We received 41 thousand tons of ware potatoes, which is slightly lower than in 2016, but we deliberately made some reduction in production and paid more attention to the quality of products, rather than their quantity. The carrot harvest amounted to 20 thousand tons. This year we plan to harvest 70 thousand tons of potatoes and 20 thousand tons of carrots.
Last year we also reached the planned harvest of apples - 4 thousand tons, more than 3.3 thousand tons were laid for storage. Last year, we began to plant the third stage of intensive-type orchards in the Krasnodar Territory, we are completing the construction of the first stage of a fruit storage with a sorting unit.

Export is the future of the industry

Working with external markets should become an important trend in 2018 for the entire agro-industrial complex, Vitaly Sheremet is sure. “If we do not achieve results in poultry and pork, we will see serious consequences in the form of redistribution of markets, bankruptcies, bad debts, etc.,” he warns. It is important for our manufacturers to understand target markets and consolidate efforts to position products in them. However, Andrey Dalnov reminds of the current industry risks of the spread of African swine fever (ASF) and avian influenza. “The difficult epizootic situation impedes the development of external sales, which could become an alternative to traditional sales channels - sales in retail chains and to meat processing plants, ”he notes.

The problems of ASF and avian influenza really need to be addressed, Sheremet agrees, but he adds that, for example, the supply of thermally processed products (ready-to-eat) allows us to bypass the existing restrictions on Russian meat. However, in this case, another problem is exposed: a poor understanding of consumer preferences in target markets and the weak competence of our manufacturers in marketing high value added products. Another difficulty is that potential consumers abroad are not aware of Russia's potential as a food supplier. “We have not been present in these markets as an exporter of food products for almost 100 years, if we consider the achievements of Tsarist Russia as a starting point,” the expert emphasizes. “Therefore, building a country food brand in foreign markets is one of the main tasks of the Ministry of Agriculture and the Russian Export Center.”


Now one of the key factors in the development of the market is export, and in this regard, the agricultural sector has room to grow, Dmitry Rylko agrees with him. So, in 2017, Russia exported about 64 million tons of agricultural raw materials and food for $ 20.3 billion, while imported products for almost $ 29 billion, but in volume - only 22 million tons. “This suggests that our exports are huge, but cheap, - sums up the expert. "Our country should gradually switch to the export of products with higher added value." According to the forecast ICAR, this year, if the ruble does not fall and is relatively stable, the increase in both exports and imports of food will continue.

The turn to export is indeed a huge achievement of the Russian agro-industrial complex, believes Andrey Klepach, chief economist and deputy chairman of the board of Vnesheconombank, however, according to him, the first easy step in this direction has already been taken, and it will be more difficult to increase indicators further. “We will not be able to quickly increase domestic production: grain harvests may decrease due to weather, meat and vegetables also have nowhere to grow, while prices have fallen,” he said at the beginning of February during the “Where is the margin” conference. - It's the same with export. We came out with huge volumes of grain, but it will be difficult to maintain such indicators further, taking into account the competition, the growth of world production, and our infrastructure problems. " In his opinion, in terms of grain, we are no longer just at the ceiling of opportunities, but rather even a little above it. Russia enters foreign markets with sugar, expands the supply of fat and oil products, but it will not be possible to sharply increase the export of, for example, meat, because it is very expensive and difficult from the point of view of logistics and certification of enterprises.

Vitaly Sheremet

Partner, Head of the Competence Center in the agro-industrial complex of KPMG in Russia and the CIS

The agro-industrial complex has shown very good growth in recent years, especially against the general economic background. To maintain this dynamics and achieve the goals that are being voiced - in particular, in terms of export volume - comprehensive measures are needed to radically resolve the accumulated problems. Work is already underway to revise the priorities of state support: more attention needs to be paid to innovations, infrastructure, exports - everything that creates equal opportunity for manufacturers. An important direction is the support of small forms, which not only solve a social problem, but also improve the economy of the sector through mobility and efficiency.
It is also worth noting the increased interest in the sector from the top officials of the regions. And if earlier this interest was reflected in the expected results of statistics, today absolutely business objectives are being set. Regions no longer wait for an initiative from the center, they are ready to invest and promote their companies on both the federal and world markets. This is a very good trend, because the Russian brand on the global market is made up of a mosaic of regional brands. And we have something to offer in this respect. It is national products, recipes, cuisine that can interest the consumer, who is somewhat tired of the impersonal large-scale production of transnational corporations.

Where to invest

By February 19 Rosstat has not yet released data on investment dynamics in 2017. According to the results of the first nine months of last year, investments in fixed assets in agriculture amounted to 226.9 billion rubles, which is 2.4% more than in the same period of 2016. Investments across all sectors of the economy added 1.6%.

It is better not to talk about new niches for investment in agriculture, Rylko is sure. “If we notice something and say about it, it means that investments came there two years ago: if someone finds a free niche and starts investing there, then, as a rule, they do it quietly,” he comments. "For example, an explosion in the production of frozen potatoes is expected this year, but investments began much earlier." According to the expert, now the most interesting are the sectors that are above and below the raw material production, because there you can still seriously invest. In particular, the expert predicts that there will be a new wave of investments in the construction and modernization of the grain-carrying network, in the storage and logistics of sugar beets and sugar, investments in seed production and agricultural machinery will continue.

Daria Snitko shares a similar opinion. According to her, it is necessary to improve technologies, apply the latest methods of agricultural technology, develop the production of plant protection products, localize the production of seeds, veterinary drugs and equipment in the country. “It seems to me that the fact that the Russian agro-industrial complex has fulfilled the primary goals of import substitution is in the air, but dependence on imported means of production has not been eliminated,” she explains. "The state program is valid until 2020, and what is beyond the horizon of these years is rarely discussed."

The production of capital goods will remain the most interesting, but also the most difficult segment of the entire agro-industrial complex. Prices for them will rise, as will needs, since not all companies have switched to modern technologies, but the market situation will force them to do it, Snitko is convinced. In her opinion, investments that in the past were focused on creating capacities for manufacturing products will now more and more be directed to improving technologies, equipment, as well as to related sectors - logistics infrastructure (transport operators, port facilities, storage), scientific infrastructure, and also in the localization of seed production, technology, the creation of breeding and genetic centers.

Market participants also speak about the need for investments in modernization, technologies and increasing production efficiency. So, for example, the CEO “ Rusagro"Maxim Basov in December at the conference" Agroholdings of Russia "noted that crop production will continue to develop due to increased productivity, and not areas, which, on the contrary, will begin to decline. “Years of very hard work await us, and there is no other way but to invest in technology, in people and, to a lesser extent, in construction,” emphasized the top manager.

Group " Prodo»In 2018 plans to continue the investment program, which covers all enterprises of the holding and will improve business efficiency. “Due to the modernization of equipment, the introduction of new technologies using information systems, optimizing activities and increasing production volumes, we will increase the competitiveness of our products, ”says Petr Ilyukhin. In January this year, the company has already completed a three-year reconstruction project for the complex " Prodo Kaluzhskaya poultry farm "worth 5 billion rubles. (for more details see page 12). Also in 2018, the holding plans to complete the first stage of reconstruction of the Omsky Bacon pig farm and start modernizing the poultry farms. Prodo Tyumen broiler "and" Prodo Poultry farm Permskaya ", adds the top manager. Now the Tyumen enterprise produces more than 32 thousand tons of finished products per year, by 2021 six new buildings for poultry feeding will be built, which will increase the capacity of the site by 20%. The entire technological chain will also be reconstructed, including the incubator and the slaughter-processing complex, which will allow reaching the figure of 50 thousand tons per year. Investments at the first stage will exceed 1.6 billion rubles, specifies Ilyukhin.

« AFG National»This year he intends to concentrate on the development and improvement of the efficiency of his projects started in previous years, in particular, he will start organizing a new production site for growing potatoes in the Nizhny Novgorod region with an area of \u200b\u200bat least 1.2 thousand hectares. It will start operating in 2019 and will allow a 30% increase in potato production. “It is possible that new crops will appear in the crop rotation,” says Belov. - In addition, in the near future we want to increase the area of \u200b\u200bgardens to 2.5 thousand hectares. This will allow us to become one of the largest producers of marketable apples both in the Kuban and in Russia ”. This year, the company plans to lay the third stage of orchards, as a result of which their total area will reach 700 hectares, and the harvest should double in comparison with last year. The first and second stages of the fruit storage with a capacity of 10 thousand tons will also be completed. According to Belov, the holding intends to systematically work to improve operational efficiency and increase yields in all sectors in which it operates.


The importance of crop production cannot be overemphasized

Crop production is one of the first and fundamental branches of agriculture. Its role in the formation of the economy, and indeed of all mankind, can hardly be overestimated. It is crop production that is the basis of food security in any country, and the provision of the population with food depends on its development.

Crop production provides the lion's share of the products consumed by the world's population in modern world... It is the backbone of international production and trade.

What are the main crops for global crop production?

The area under crops of major grain crops such as wheat, corn, rye, barley, oats, rice, occupies more than half of all arable land on the planet, and in some countries, such as Japan, this figure reaches 95%.

Crop industries - the main crop production area

Modern agriculture involves the cultivation of a wide variety of plant species. In this regard, crop production sectors are also quite diverse. it is customary to distinguish the following areas:

  • - grain production
  • Gardening and viticulture - growing fruit crops
  • Vegetable growing and melon growing - growing vegetables and melons
  • Technical crop production - growing industrial crops
  • Feed production - growing and production of animal feed

The largest and most important branch of plant growing for mankind is grain farming, which, as the name implies, is engaged in the cultivation of various grain crops.

Grain is the basis of the population's nutrition and the main factor of food security, as well as a fodder base for animal husbandry.

The main crops grown in most countries with developed agriculture, including Russia, are:

  • wheat
  • corn
  • buckwheat
  • barley
  • millet

Let's talk about the main cultures in more detail.

Wheat

Cultivated for over ten thousand years, wheat remains the most important crop product in the world today. Wheat is grown everywhere except in tropical countries.

Scientists are inclined to believe that the homeland of wheat is an area located in Turkey. Although for many years among scientists, especially Soviet ones, there was an opinion that the place where people first began to grow wheat artificially was Armenia.

Thanks to the variety of varieties and hybrids bred by breeders, almost any type of soil and climatic region is suitable for its cultivation. And in terms of its resistance to cold weather, it is perhaps inferior only to barley and potatoes.

Interesting fact: the ancient Slavs revered wheat, considering its grain a symbol of wealth and prosperity; they tried to protect the grain of wheat from spoilage.

The world centers of wheat cultivation are Russia, Kazakhstan, USA, Canada, Australia, Western Europe.

World wheat production photo

Although the fact that in ancient times people ate wheat grains has been known for a long time, the wheat was growing wild, and people gathered ripe crumbling grains from the ground.


Corn

The word "corn", according to scientists, comes either from the Romanian "cucuruz", which translates as "fir-cone", or from the Turkish word "kokoroz", meaning the stem.

Another name for corn - "maize" appeared thanks to Christopher Columbus, who, seeing the plant, called it "the seed that gives rise to the ear" - "mahiz". In some countries, corn is called "Turkish millet".

But the birthplace of corn is considered to be Southern Mexico and Guatemala. This cereal is grown everywhere, but Brazil, the USA and China are traditionally considered the world leaders in industrial corn cultivation. Large volumes of corn are grown in Mexico, India, Argentina, South Africa, France, and, of course, Russia. In the USSR, corn, thanks to Nikita Sergeevich Khrushchev, became the most important cereal.

Corn is used very widely both for food production (Asia, Latin America, Africa) and for feed (USA, Western Europe).

Growing corn in Russia


Rice

Rice is the staple of the diet and daily diet of many Asian countries and most of the world's population. Therefore, it is no wonder that this is the second largest cereal in terms of cultivation. Rice in Asia replaces the usual potatoes, cereals and even bread.

Rice is exported to European countries, Latin America, Canada and the USA, where it is also very popular and loved by consumers.

The world's leading rice producers have held their ground for over a decade. Six countries are constantly competing for a place in the top three: China, Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Myanmar and Bangladesh. They are also the largest rice consumers.

Experts predict an increase in rice production in the coming years. This is primarily due to the rapid population growth in countries where rice is the main source of food.

Horticulture and viticulture as a branch of plant growing

Horticulture is engaged in the cultivation of perennial fruit and berry trees, shrubs and herbaceous plants. Naturally, the main goal of horticulture is the production of fruits and berries for direct consumption or processing.

Gardening plays an important role in protecting the environment. It is known that the leaves of trees and shrubs produce oxygen by absorbing carbon dioxide and protect against dust. Therefore, garden plantings are used to create a green layer around cities, create park areas, etc.

Despite the active development and support of gardening during the Soviet era, with the collapse of the Soviet Union, everything began to decline. Without state support most horticultural and fruit farms have simply closed, the rest are in decline.

Therefore, gardening in Russia at the moment is mostly small specialized farms or summer cottages and personal subsidiary farms.

Viticulture is both the cultivation of grapes for direct consumption and a raw material base for the production of juices, canned food, raisins, and, of course, the wine industry.

The world centers of viticulture are France, Spain, Latin America and Africa. In Russia, more than 90 percent of grape production is concentrated in the North Caucasus and Krasnodar Territory.

Vegetable growing and melon growing

The types of crop production include the cultivation of vegetables and melons.

The most common types of vegetables include all types of cabbage, tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, onions, courgettes, eggplants, and root vegetables such as carrots, radishes, and sugar beets.

With melons and gourds, the situation is more complicated, since strictly defined ones are suitable for their cultivation. climatic conditions... The most commonly grown and popular melons and gourds are primarily melons and watermelons.

Since the 18th century, potatoes have been almost the most popular product in the world, second only to grain crops.

In Russia, potatoes have become part of the main foodstuffs due to their relatively low price and good taste.

Therefore, Russia is one of the world leaders in potato production: the largest potato producers in the world are: China, Russia, India, Ukraine, USA, Germany, Poland, Belarus, Netherlands, France.

Potatoes are grown for the following purposes: 60% for consumption in natural form or composition of products, 15% for animal feed, 25% for processing for industrial purposes.

Cultivation of industrial crops

The importance of the plant growing industry - the production of industrial crops - is also difficult to overestimate. It is aimed at growing plants for further processing into raw materials for various industries.

In Russia, technical plant growing is widespread and production technologies are quite developed.

The main types of industrial crops grown in Russia are fibrous plants, from which fabrics, rubbers are made, as well as oil crops, which serve as a raw material base for the production of oils, are used in soap and paint and varnish industries.

The most widespread cultivation is cotton, flax, hemp, sesame, jute, sunflower.

Feed production

This branch of crop production is no less important than those described above, but rather even more priority. The fact is that without it the development of another most important branch of agriculture - animal husbandry - is impossible.

For animal feed, both specially grown feed crops and residues from the processing of other crops are used.

The growth of the livestock industry depends on the growth and development of the feed industry. Therefore, in our country, this branch of crop production has always been paid great attention.

Crop development and problems

Despite the large production volumes and the world leadership in the export of certain crops, our country still faces big problems in crop production.

This is influenced by many factors: underdevelopment, and sometimes complete absence infrastructure, stagnation in technological and innovative development after the collapse of the USSR, poor technical equipment, a monopoly of retail chains that set low purchase prices.

The state, realizing the importance of agricultural development as the basis of the country's food security, is trying, of course, to support crop production by allocating budget funds to support farmsreforming agriculture.

The impetus for the development of domestic crop production was given by the introduction of sanctions against Russia. Economic sanctions allowed Russian crop producers to remove the shackles of competition with imported producers. The entrepreneurs now have a sense of expanding production, opening up new directions of crop production, and just hope and faith in the future.

 

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