Market situation analysis. Goals, objectives and approaches to the study of market conditions In the study of demand or market conditions

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Conceptual tasks of market research:

analysis of dynamic patterns, trends
determining the degree of proportionality of market development
assessment of market stability both in statics and in dynamics
analysis of the frequency of market development, identification of cycles

To substantiate commercial decisions at the enterprise level, the study of the conjuncture is primarily aimed at analyzing the current state of specific product markets.

However, one should take into account the general interconnection of the phenomena of economic life: the study of any commodity market cannot be carried out in isolation, without connection with the general economic (general economic) situation.

The situation in a particular commodity market largely depends on the situation in other markets. Therefore, the study of the conjuncture of the commodity market should be comprehensive, linked to assessments of different types of market ( valuable papers, services, investments, real estate, labor, etc.), with the market conditions of substitute goods (if any), consuming, related and complementary industries. In particular, the securities market acts as one of the indicators of the situation in the commodity markets.

The state of the commodity market is characterized by a system of quantitative and qualitative indicators that are formed and changed under the influence of various factors. They should be considered as a driving force that determines the nature of the conjuncture, the direction and pace of its development, and at the same time as one of the conditions for this. economic process in specific circumstances.

Factors as the cause and condition for the development of the conjuncture differ in their content, duration and nature of the impact. To assess the quantitative, and most importantly, the qualitative impact on the market situation, they are classified. In this case, the classification features are determined by the objectives of the study. Let's consider some of them.

In connection with the economic cycle of reproduction, all conjuncture-forming factors are divided into two main groups:

cyclical (change of phases of the cycle, for example, crisis, depression, recovery, growth)
non-cyclical (concrete manifestations of state regulation of the economy, scientific and technological progress, etc.)

The ratio of the significance of the impact of cyclical and non-cyclical factors on the market situation is dynamic. In certain historical periods, one or another group of factors can play a dominant role.

According to the duration of exposure, conjuncture-forming factors are divided into:

long-term (more than 8-10 years)
medium-term (2-8 years)
short-term (from several weeks to 2 years)

Long-term market development trends are characterized by averaged values. In fact, they are mental abstractions, but they are of great practical importance, especially for predicting the market situation.

Medium-term market fluctuations are caused primarily by cyclical factors.

Short-term fluctuations in the state of the market situation are determined by factors such as seasonality in the production and consumption of certain goods, political and social conflicts, natural disasters, individual steps taken by the government, fashion, etc.

Seasonality plays a special role among short-term conjuncture-forming factors, under the influence of which intra-annual and constantly recurring fluctuations in supply and demand are observed. Thus, the seasonal nature of agricultural production is sharply reflected in the dynamics of demand and prices for it (with opposite vectors of change).

Seasonal fluctuations are characteristic of the demand for tourist travel. In countries with a temperate climate, the main ("high") seasons are summer (July-August) and winter (January-March).

In addition, the off-season (April, June, September) and the “off season” (October-December) stand out, when the flow of tourists fades and demand drops to a minimum. The seasonal nature of demand can be associated with weather conditions, holidays, vacations.

The importance of fashion is great, which has a significant impact on market conditions, especially consumer goods. The fashion created by powerful advertising gives things the function of symbols of social status, life success. Involved in the formation and change of fashion big business. High initial profits are extracted from fashion. The decline in profits in a period when fashion becomes mass, universal, leads to the fact that the trend for change in fashion every time receives a powerful impetus from manufacturers.

In the theory and practice of market research, the division of determining factors according to the degree of predictability into:

predictable (predictable)
unpredictable (unpredictable, random)

If predictable factors (for example, forms of manifestation of the reproduction cycle, methods of state regulation of the economy, seasonality, etc.) can be foreseen and taken into account, then random ones, in principle, cannot be estimated in advance. They may be associated with completely unpredictable circumstances (discovery of new mineral deposits, aggravation of the international situation, political conflicts, natural disasters, etc.).

The main difficulty in assessing the situation on the market is not to determine the range of conjuncture-forming factors.

The most important task of any study of the conjuncture, the success of which depends not only on the depth of coverage and thoroughness of the analysis, but also on the accuracy and correctness of the forecast, is to establish the significance, the strength of the influence of individual factors on the formation of the conjuncture, and to identify the leading factors that determine the conjuncture at each individual moment. and for the near future. This task can be successfully solved only if the market research is carried out in a complex manner in the fullness of its factors and conditions of functioning.

The conjuncture of the commodity market is characterized by the following main indicators:

the scale of the market (its capacity, sales volume, the number of enterprises of various types operating in the market)
degree of market balance (supply and demand ratio)
price level
type of market (competitive, monopolistic, etc.)
market dynamics (changes in its main parameters)
degree business activity
strength and scope competition(number of competitors, their activity)
the degree of state regulation of this market
barriers to market entry
commercial conditions for the sale of goods

Market analysis is designed to comprehensively characterize the market situation and give a comprehensive assessment of the state of the market, primarily from the position of the marketing activities of the enterprise, i.e. whether the situation is favorable for the implementation of the set goals.

Estimates of market conditions are made on the basis of market indicators - indicators that allow, alone or in combination with others, to reflect the market situation. Market indicators, in particular, include:

receipt of goods (delivery or alternatively production volume)
sale (volume of sales in value terms or natural units)
inventory(in value terms or in days of turnover)
profit (or profitability)

Often, market indicators are not static indicators, but their growth rates (dynamic indices). So, on the basis of monitoring the change in commodity stocks, it is possible to carry out an indirect assessment of the proportionality of the market.

The fact is that commodity stocks are sensitive to any changes in the ratio of supply and demand. The excess of demand over supply causes a reduction in inventories, and the excess of supply over demand (or their qualitative discrepancy) is accompanied by an increase in inventories (overstocking). The stability of commodity stocks testifies to the balance of the market.

The situation on the market can also reflect informal market estimates, which are characteristics of buying sentiment and inflation expectations.

Consumer Intention Index

In a number of countries, on the basis of consumer panels, one of the most important market indicators is determined - the index of consumer intentions. It is integral and consists of a number of private indices:

current personal financial situation

expected changes in personal financial situation

expected changes in the country's economy in the coming year

expected changes in the country's economy in the next five years

the feasibility of large purchases

expediency of savings

Each of the private indexes is independent and plays a specific role. Some indices describe the current situation, others predict it, others directly reflect consumer intentions. The integral index of consumer intentions, calculated taking into account the weight of private intentions, can take values from 200 (maximum) to 0 (minimum). Values greater than 100 indicate a positive assessment of the situation.

A careful analysis of the index of consumer intentions, the assessment of its fluctuations, allows you to get warning information about the approach of both negative and positive changes in the state of the market.

When researching market conditions, it is necessary to:

take into account the interconnections and interdependencies of economic phenomena occurring in the market
exclude the mechanical transfer of trends identified in some markets to others, even related markets, and the general economic situation - to all specific product markets
continuously monitor (monitor) the markets due to their dynamism
observe a certain sequence of study: preparatory stage, current observations of the development of the market situation, analysis of market information, development of a market forecast

At the preparatory stage, the object of study, the main indicators of the situation, and the range of sources of necessary information are determined.

Current monitoring of the development of the conjuncture involves the collection, storage, verification, correction, systematization and primary processing of the data obtained on the state of the market under study.

The purpose of the analysis of market information is to identify patterns and trends in the development of the conjuncture of the market under study.

The market forecast provides an assessment of the prospects for the development of the market and is the basis for developing a strategy and tactics for the enterprise. The quality of the forecast is determined mainly by how deeply and comprehensively the analysis and assessment of the factors of formation and development of the conjuncture are carried out.

Without an assessment of the position on the market, no enterprise will be able to function correctly.

Analysis of market conditions is mainly carried out to determine the nature and degree of its balance, first of all, it is determined how identical supply and demand are to each other.

Concept and structure

Translated from Latin, "conjuncture" is translated as "connect, connect." In meaning, it means the current situation in some area of life.

In relation to the market, this is a situation that has developed in a certain period of time or over a certain period of time.

The conjuncture is influenced by such factors that determine changes in prices and securities, the size of production, employment, and much more. Its structure:

the level of the ratio of supply and demand, as a balance of the market;
the level of fluctuations or stability of its main characteristics;
real, possible or transforming trends emerging in the market;
movement of commodity stocks and prices;
portfolios of orders by industry;
the degree of commercial risk at a particular point in time;
the scale of competition;
the state of the market at a particular point in a particular time cycle.

Study objectives

Consider the purpose of market research. The essence of the mechanism is found in the desire of supply and demand to balance.

The main purpose of market research is to determine the relationship between supply and demand. Processes in the market are unpredictable, situational in nature, it is formed under a variety of very contradictory factors, which cause constant deviations from the basic development trend.

The study of the situation in terms of possible trends in the disproportion of supply and demand predicts changes in the market.

In general, all status marks have an information-warning form. They are intended for entrepreneurs and governments. Estimates can be diametrically different - from "calm" to "storm".

Also, the main purpose of studying the situation is to determine the extent to which the actions of industry and trade influence the state of the market and its development in the future.

What measures are needed to fully satisfy the demand for certain goods and how to make the best use of the opportunities available to the enterprise. The results of the study are used to make effective decisions on managing the enterprise and marketing existing and developing products.

Market research should be comprehensive, using various sources of information that can complement each other, thereby forming a complete picture.

For example, forecast indicators and retrospective analysis. Only in this way is an objective assessment of the market situation formed.

Scope of tasks in the study of market conditions:

It is necessary to identify all competitors, identify their product range, understand its pricing policy, determine which consumer segment will be interested in your company's products, and much more. All information must be accurate and up to date.
Further, all these indicators must be systematized.
Determine the scale and dynamics of the above factors, to what extent they are interrelated and interdependent. This will determine the direction of the enterprise.
Without fail, determine how these factors will be active in the short term, and develop a forecast.

Assessment of market conditions consists of studying the following areas:

conjuncture general economic (analysis external environment enterprises);
conjuncture for a certain product;
conjuncture of the commodity market by segments: consumer, industrial, state, export;
demand;
sentence;
trends in the development of demand / supply for a certain type of product;
growth and meet the needs of this species products.

Study of the consumer sector

The consumer sector is the most difficult to study and further forecast. A large number of different factors interact here: socio-economic, demographic, scientific and technical, climatic, national, psychological, and many others.

Of course, the total volume of requests depends on the purchasing power of citizens. It, in turn, is determined by the level of income, the terms of lending by banks, the accumulated monetary volumes, the ratio between the costs of acquiring certain material goods.

Ultimately, the volume of effective demand directly depends on the amounts Money, which the population directs to purchase services or goods.

The market capacity of a certain product, that is, the volume of goods purchased for a specific time period, is set as the volume of production and the amount of stocks of goods and the balance of imports and exports.

If the demand for a product is not completely satisfied, then the effect of unsatisfied solvent demand arises, which in natural conditions occurs only at the stage of the appearance of a new product.

Market capacity is also determined using information about the realized demand for a particular product or about the volume of its retail turnover. When conducting this kind of analysis, it must be remembered that price indicators depend on markups on goods (retail and wholesale).

Volumes of consumption of goods by sectors

The scale of industrial consumption in the commodity market is set by the number of consumer purchases. Among the main factors can be identified on-farm, sectoral and general economic.
The scale of state consumption in the commodity market is established by the tender for the goods. The main factor in this sector is the state's needs for a particular service or product. And, of course, the amount of money allocated for it.
The scale of exports in the commodity market, as a rule, reduces the capacity of the market. Export volumes are registered by the customs authorities and published in statistical collections. Among the main factors are the following:
- the degree of competitiveness of the goods in various markets of the world;
- foreign economic policy of the states of exporters (importers);
- export opportunities of the state.

Analysis of the situation in the commodity market should be completed with a study of the possibility of growth and satisfaction of consumer needs. Here their changes are analyzed, how they were expressed, how they were satisfied, what happened when a new similar product appeared, why the needs decreased or disappeared.

In addition, it is necessary to study the possibility of offering a similar substitute product, which may not yet appear on the market. The whole process is ultimately of a qualitative nature and must be carried out by specialists: sociologists, marketers and merchandisers.

Study and marketing analysis of market conditions (market conditions)

Methodological bases for studying market conditions

Conjuncture - the current economic situation on the market, which characterizes: the relationship between supply and demand, the price level, the portfolio of orders, consumer requirements and other economic indicators. Chief among them is the relationship between supply and demand and the price of products associated with this relationship.

Market research includes: analysis and forecast of market conditions and analysis of the features of commercial activity.

The general scheme of the market situation forecast is shown in fig. one.

Rice. one.

The study of the market situation consists of two main blocks: the study of the general economic situation and the study of the situation of a particular product market

The research process itself consists of the following successive stages:

-- collection of information and analysis of market conditions;
-- development of own forecast of the conjuncture for the next planning period;
-- Evaluation of the effectiveness of using the results of the market forecast.

The study of the general economic situation involves tracking and detailed consideration of the processes, changes taking place in the national economy of a single country, the economic community or the world economy as a whole, and provides for an analysis of the main macroeconomic proportions and trends, the entire set of industries represented within the selected research object.

The study of the conjuncture of the commodity market includes an analysis and forecast of the state of the market for a particular product and involves the study of the sectors of production and consumption, the products in question, their relationships, as well as the infrastructure support of the market under study.

Analysis of the general economic situation or the situation of a particular product market can be carried out in two ways, depending on the objectives of the study:

- if the task is to find out the trends and rates of development of the conjuncture for a certain period, then the analysis of the conjuncture is carried out by studying its dynamics over this period;
-- if the task is to determine the conjuncture for the current date, then the state of the conjuncture is analyzed by determining the phase of the economic cycle and the approximate place within the phase.

High efficiency of work on the study of the situation, problems and long-term trends in the development of the market is possible only if the principles of purposefulness, complexity, and systematicity are observed.

Purposefulness means that the study of market conditions and trends in its development should be closely linked to the planned tasks facing the enterprise.

An integrated approach means:

-- firstly, the need to analyze all the main elements of a particular market;
-- secondly, the obligation to study it in conjunction with general economic phenomena and product markets;
-- thirdly, the coverage of the entire main group of factors of an internal (in relation to this market) nature that has an impact on it.

The systematic nature of observations and analysis implies the correlation of certain requirements for research activities. Only under this condition is it possible to timely reflect the changes taking place in the market and take them into account in practice.

When accumulating initial data, positions should be clarified before starting to collect material and identify indicators of the development of the conjuncture and consumer demand.

It is necessary to determine the period of time (quarter, half year, year) for which the conjuncture and consumer requests will be analyzed. Not only the list of indicators depends on this, but also the degree of detail of data on them.

It is also necessary to determine the level of specification of the analysis and forecast that is planned to be carried out. On the basis of such preliminary work, the volume and nature of the necessary materials are specified.

Analysis of the market situation should be carried out on the basis of materials that reflect the totality of often contradictory processes, trends and phenomena, and not on the basis of arbitrarily selected factors that confirm this or that point of view.

Only with an integrated approach to analysis can one correctly assess the state and main trends in the development of the conjuncture. The latter is formed under conditions of mutual influence of forces, often oppositely directed, and is the result of the manifestation of all conjuncture-forming factors.

Starting to study the conjuncture of the commodity market, it is necessary first of all to identify the activity of certain factors, for which it is necessary to establish the moment in which the market is located. For these purposes, the monographic method is used, i.e. published in statistical and periodicals economic and statistical indicators of the nature and characteristics of this particular period and forecasts of its development.

Checking the correctness of the market research allows you to timely reveal shortcomings in the work of the marketing service and take prompt measures to eliminate them. The ultimate task of conjuncture research is to create a picture of the probable future: to determine the opportunities that should be used, the potential dangers that should be avoided.

For a short-term market forecast, it is necessary to take into account all factors - from temporary and random to cyclical and non-cyclical. At the same time, the main attention is paid to the three most important elements of the market mechanism: demand, supply and price, which makes it possible to analyze the commodity market comprehensively.

Analysis of the effectiveness of market research involves, first of all, an assessment of the timeliness of the implementation of certain marketing activities and comparison of prices under concluded contracts with the level of prices for the products in question, prevailing on the leading stock exchanges (if the goods are exchange-traded) or from large manufacturers and suppliers for the period under review, all other things being equal. When concluding foreign trade transactions, efficiency is determined by the amount of foreign exchange earnings during exports or by the amount of foreign exchange payments during imports.

To study (analyze and forecast) market conditions, a wide range of indicators is used:

-- indicators of production (industrial, agricultural);
-- Indicators of domestic trade;
-- indicators of foreign trade;
-- indicators of the price level;
-- financial indicators.

Demand Analysis

To the main task of a comprehensive study of the market, allowing to determine it General characteristics, includes the analysis and evaluation of products planned for production in terms of the parameters of their demand. This is one of the most important and responsible stages of market analysis. Insufficient or inaccurate analysis of demand can lead, on the one hand, to the creation of excess capacities and their irrational use, on the other hand, to the creation of an enterprise's capacity that is insufficient to meet market needs or does not allow optimizing the scale of production.

In marketing theory, the demand for a product or service is defined as a solvent need, so not every need is a demand. This definition of demand is very clearly illustrated by the situation in the national economy of Russia in the conditions of the payments crisis. Production in many industries is declining not because there is no need for these goods, but because there is no demand for them: consumers cannot pay for the products they need.

Determination of demand and market size includes an assessment of the magnitude and structure of current actual demand and a prospective assessment of demand in the market. Current demand can be represented as the total quantity of a particular product purchased at a particular price in a particular market in a particular period. The first step in determining the current actual demand is to determine it for the year preceding the year of the survey, or, if these data are not enough, then for several previous years.

It should be taken into account that consumers are reluctant to share information about the structure of demand, preferences and market flexibility. Therefore, the lack of statistical information on the influence of various factors on the magnitude of demand must be compensated by expert estimates of demand and its changes under the influence of economic phenomena.

Because market demand has a multifunctional nature, then in order to predict it, it is necessary, based on the results of market analysis, to highlight the key factors that determine its dynamics. Then you need to assess the degree of their influence on demand and make a forecast of the evolution of factors in the future. After performing these procedures, a demand forecast is carried out based on some method.

It is necessary to clearly understand what needs the product satisfies in a particular market, in what areas and how it will be used by the buyer. The most common methods for determining the prospective need are the normative, statistical extrapolation and the method of expert assessments. It is advisable to combine these methods, which will reduce the error compared to using each method separately.

The normative method is the most appropriate for industries where the range of materials and components used is relatively small and is calculated in physical terms. To determine the prospective need by the normative method, the following formula is used:

i -- industry-consumer;

l -- type of material (component item);

j -- product type;

Norm of consumption of the l-th type of material (component product) by the j-th product;

The volume of the product of the j-th type, consuming l-th view material (component product);

Losses of the l-th type of material (component product) used in the j-th type product.

IN general view the requirement standard in the t-th year with this method of calculation can be represented as follows:

B = Bv, A1, A2, A3, ..., An, where:

Вв - the standard of demand in the base year;

A1, A2, A3, ..., An are coefficients that take into account the influence of various factors on the consumption standard in the t-th year.

Together with the consumer, the market researcher should critically evaluate the presented data, taking into account the possible emergence of competing materials, the availability of equipment for processing materials into products, information about the planned change in standards and other factors, and make appropriate adjustments to the volume of declared needs.

In consumer industries where there is already a certain trend mass application materials (moreover, in large volumes and a diverse range), the statistical-extrapolation method is most convenient. The period during which extrapolation of demand is possible is in the range of 10-15 years. Practice shows that the expected forecasting error does not exceed 15%, which is quite acceptable for predictive calculation.

The increase in demand is the sum of the increase in initial demand and the increase in replacement. Next, the intra-group structure of demand is calculated (by individual types, brands), based on the total volume of demand based on the data used at the analysis stage. The calculation is made in the following sequence:

-- the share is determined certain types goods in the total sales volume and the share of individual brands in the sales volume of goods of this type;
- the structure of the possible volume of full sale by types and brands is calculated as the ratio of the possible volume of sale of this type of product to the total volume of possible sale; by brands - the absolute amount of the possible full sale for a given brand is divided by the volume of a possible full sale by type, which includes this brand;
-- The structure of the expected sale is determined. In addition to the normative method used in predicting market capacity, extrapolation methods can also be used. The most accurate extrapolation methods are Jenkins-Box time series models.

Analysis of consumer demand requires the study of the most important demographic factors that affect the state of demand and its dynamics, namely: the population of a country or segment, the birth rate, the age composition of the population, and the geographical distribution of the population.

When analyzing the purchasing power of the population, it turns out:

-- income level of the population;
-- the volume and terms of consumer credit; - the amount of savings of the population;

Demand analysis should be carried out based on the use of a system of indicators (Fig. 2).

Rice. 2.

The consumption volume is calculated for the current period. On the basis of determining the rate of its growth in the past, an estimate of the volume of consumption in the future is given. Estimated apparent consumption is defined as production plus imports minus exports.

The assessment of the purchasing power of the population is calculated by analyzing a number of indicators: the price level, the level of wages, the level of savings, etc. In addition, the purchasing power is determined by the consumption of the types of products of interest per capita:

Consumption of the i-th product per capita;

Vi -- total consumption of the i-th product for the period under review;

H - the number of the study group;

-- demand for all types of comparable products and interchangeable goods;
-- the total amount of income of the population with a breakdown by region;
-- salary fund;
-- cost of living index:

Irzp -- index of real wages;

Izp -- index of nominal wages;

Iц - price index for goods and services.

Ifopot. -- index of physical volume of consumption;

g1,0 -- the volume of consumption in the reporting, base period;

p0 -- price in the base period;

Level of taxation:

Un - the level of taxation,

Spl - the amount of taxes;

Day - taxable base,

L - benefit;

The cost of rent and household services.

For all the above components, development trends are determined.

Analysis of consumer preferences allows us to determine the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of demand, to identify the main trends in its development.

Offer Analysis

An important component of the market research process is the analysis of the proposal. Marketers argue that the success of the proposal depends on the success of marketing as a whole. Good business can be done with the most ordinary product that is well received by the consumer.

Changing the offer is the basis for the implementation of the most important principle of marketing. The essence of this principle is that the company should produce such types of products that would best correspond to the nature and specifics of consumer demand.

A number of indicators are used to evaluate the proposal (Fig. 3).

Rice. 3.

When analyzing the supply of a particular product, it is important to study the state and development trends of the corresponding world commodity market. Firms are constantly researching to identify the prospects of scientific and technical progress, much attention is paid to the expected discoveries that may lead to fundamental changes in the field of production and marketing in the world commodity market and in the field of international trade in the flail.

Analysis of the supply of goods involves the systematization of the search. Sometimes the researcher does not have enough knowledge to objectively evaluate the offer of a product. In this case, the following sources of information can come to the rescue: a confidential conversation with competent employees; analytical review of special books and journals; study of competitors' advertising; careful review of catalogs, prospectuses, announcements and other materials related to the industry; study of brochures published by the patent offices; viewing the daily economic press; analysis of old publications; visiting fairs and exhibitions; watching special television programs; conversations with customers and suppliers; discussions with department heads; study and analysis of proposals of employees of the enterprise; studying published market research reports; visiting conferences, competitions and competitions; conversations with consultants.

In addition to this method of processing secondary information, there are other research methods. One of them is functional analysis. However, one must keep in mind a very specific product that can be functionally described. In this case, it is necessary first of all to investigate all its properties. Then it should be determined what new functions it can perform or which functions already in the product market it performs better. If the new product has clear benefits perform certain functions or outperform competing products in all functions, you can count on success.

Market price analysis

To select a pricing strategy, a firm must identify and analyze all factors that may affect prices. To a greater extent, these reasons are external to the firm and are not controlled by it. The final prices are influenced by the following main factors:

consumers;

state regulation;

participants in distribution channels;

competitors;

costs.

1. Consumers of goods have a significant influence on the firm's decision on prices. The relationship between prices and the number of purchases made at those prices can be explained in two ways. The first is the operation of the law of supply and demand and price elasticity, the second is the unequal reaction of buyers in different market segments to the price.
2. Others the most important factor external environment is the government in other words, state regulation of prices. Here the influence is carried out in several main directions.

The government legislates restricting price-fixing and price-fixing attempts between producers of goods and between wholesalers and retailers. No matter how justified these fixed prices are, they are recognized as illegal: entrepreneurs who set them are severely punished, and companies are subject to huge fines. Such violations are called horizontal price fixing. To avoid suspicion of such violations of the law, entrepreneurs should avoid the following actions: consult or exchange information with competitors on prices, discounts, terms of sale and credit; denounce the prices, markups and costs of any firms at professional industry meetings; negotiate with competitors to temporarily reduce production in order to maintain high prices. An exception is a price agreement made under the supervision of a state-authorized authority.

Another violation punishable by law is vertical price fixing. It lies in the fact that manufacturers or wholesale require the sale of their goods at specific prices, thus controlling retail prices.

The state prohibits by law price discrimination if it harms competition. Thus, manufacturers and wholesalers are obliged to offer their goods to different buyers - participants in the distribution channels on the same terms. Price discrimination is permissible only in relation to goods of different quality. However, in this case, the manufacturer will need to prove that the prices strictly take into account qualitative differences.

In addition, predatory pricing is punishable by law. The state takes measures to protect small shops from dishonest price competition from their larger counterparts. It is forbidden to sell products at prices below cost in order to attract buyers and eliminate competitors. Wholesalers and retailers must sell products at prices that include costs plus a fixed percentage covering overheads and profits. This is especially true for products such as bread, dairy products, and alcoholic beverages.

3. The next factor influencing the decision on prices is the participants in the distribution channels. All participants in the distribution channels - from the manufacturer to the wholesaler and retail- by all available means seek to increase the volume of sales and profits and establish more complete control over prices.

The manufacturer influences the price of the goods, using the system of monopoly commodity circulation, minimizing the sale of goods through stores selling at discount prices. The manufacturer opens its own Retail Stores in which he controls prices.

4. An important element that affects the price level is competition. From the position of marketing, the environment in which the company operates is analyzed. Depending on who controls prices, there are three types of competitive environments (Fig. 4).

Rice. 4.

The environment, in which prices are controlled by the firm, is characterized by limited competition, differences in goods and services. Under these conditions, it is easier for firms to function, receiving high profits because their products are unrivaled. Both at high and at low prices firms find buyers for their products in the market, the choice of price depends only on the strategy and the target market.

The environment where prices are controlled by the government extends to transport, communications, public Utilities, row of food products. Government organizations authorized to control prices set the price level after a comprehensive study of information from all parties interested in this product - consumers and producers.

5. The final price of the goods is greatly influenced by the costs associated with the acquisition of raw materials, work force, individual components of the goods, transport, environmental protection.

Starting to address the issue of the price of goods, the manufacturer must collect complete information. Information and data should not be confused. Decisions on prices can only be made by the company after comprehensively studying the information. The data serve only as the source material, analyzing which, one can obtain benign information. Without such an analysis, the firm will simply have a bunch of facts and figures that will only make it harder to make the right price decision. Data should be collected with the firm belief that it will serve as a potential source of information. Therefore, the management of the company must determine:

in what directions to collect data;

on which issues information is required;

the breadth of information required for each question.

As a rule, companies collect information in the following main areas: product market (type of competition); the industry in which the firm operates; competing industries; government activities.

The most important issues on which the company needs information are: competitors and competing products; production and costs; the ratio between the proceeds from the sale of goods and profit; government policy.

Firms, collecting and processing information on prices, strive to:

study the market in which they sell their goods;

to find out all the potential possibilities of the produced goods;

study your own and competing industries in order to identify current and potential competitors;

take into account in its activities all decisions of the government.

Market conjuncture. Market research and analysis

Market conditions - an economic situation that is developing in the market and is characterized by levels of supply and demand, market activity, prices, sales volumes, movements in interest rates, exchange rates, wages, dividends, as well as the dynamics of production and consumption.

The conjunctural market depends on the action of factors, the main of which are: consumer cash income, commodity prices, the ratio of supply and demand for securities, their profitability.

Market conditions determine the commercial value and competitiveness of goods, the possibility and economic feasibility of buying and selling, the choice of potential and actual exporting countries (importers) and counterparty firms, and the search for a favorable moment to enter the market, the forms and methods of this entry.

The change in market conditions is determined primarily by the nature and level of development of the economy, but it is also influenced by such factors as the seasonal nature of the production and consumption of a number of goods. All factors influencing market conditions are classified into permanent and temporary (according to the frequency of their impact), stimulating the development of the market or restraining it.

Market conditions are studied using indicators that allow us to quantify the changes taking place on it and determine their development trends. Such indicators are usually systematized into the following groups:

dynamics of production, major producing firms, emergence of new products, utilization of production capacities, dynamics of investments in this industry, movement of the portfolio of orders, dynamics of production costs, number of employed and unemployed, impact of strikes on output and increase in the wage bill, movement of securities prices etc.;

the dynamics and structure of supply and demand, the impact of the achievements of scientific and technological progress on the level of consumption and requirements for the quality of goods, the dynamics of wholesale and retail trade, market capacity (the volume of goods sold on it for a certain time), sales volumes, movement of inventory, assortment of goods, cost of living indices, etc.;

condition international trade, its dynamics, the main countries - exporters and importers, new forms and methods of trade and after-sales service, etc.;

dynamics of wholesale prices in the leading countries - producers and consumers of this product, export prices; the impact on prices of inflation, the dynamics of changes in prices for raw materials and energy carriers, changes in the exchange rate, the impact of monopolies on the price level, state regulation of pricing, etc.

Conjuncture tasks:

integration and differentiation of the market, typologies of the market situation and gradation of the state of the market;
characteristics of the scale (type) of the market;
assessment and analysis of the main proportions of development;
identification, analysis and forecasting of development trends and sustainability of market processes;
assessment of cyclicity and seasonality of development;
assessment of rational differences;
assessment of business activity;
analysis of market monopolization and level of competition.

Market Research

The conjuncture is a set of features and indicators that characterize the current state of the economy.

Market research involves the analysis of the situation on the market and its forecasting. The end result of such a study is to obtain answers to the following questions: at what point and at what prices should a product be sold or bought.

To study the market situation and prepare forecasts for its development, it is necessary first of all to find out what phase of its cycle the country's economy is in. Then give a comprehensive description of the economy for the previous year, identify and analyze all the factors influencing the market situation, and make a reasonable market forecast.

Allocate strategic and operational goals of market analysis and market forecasting.

The strategic goals of market analysis require the identification and modeling of the patterns of the market mechanism. This makes it possible to predict the development of the market and justify the use of economic regulatory mechanisms.

The operational goals of the market analysis of the current situation are focused on meeting the needs of marketing and management.

To achieve strategic and operational goals, the main tasks of market analysis are:

1) assessment of the state of the market;

2) characteristics of the scale (capacity) of the market;

3) assessment and analysis of the main proportions (shares) of the market;

4) analysis and forecasting of market development trends;

5) analysis of seasonality and cyclical development of the market;

6) assessment of regional characteristics and differences;

7) business activity analysis;

8) assessment of commercial (market) risk;

9) characteristics of the degree of monopolization of the market and the intensity of competition.

The solution of these problems of market analysis is complex and requires serious research, which uses a systematic and integrated approach.

A systematic approach to market research involves a multi-level (hierarchical) description of an object.

As a rule, the study of an object is carried out at least at three levels:

The first level involves the study of the object (the market of the country) as a whole, as well as the generalized indicators characterizing it;

The second level involves the study of the structure of the object (a separate commodity market) and the indicators characterizing it, as well as the system of links between the individual elements of the object;

The third level of market research of the object involves a description of the state of individual elements of the commodity market.

An integrated approach to the study of the economic situation involves consideration of the object of study based on a comprehensive analysis of the interaction of factors of the internal and external environment. So, when studying the conjuncture of the commodity market, this means that the object must be studied in conjunction with the general economic conjuncture, with the conjuncture of consuming industries, as well as with the conjuncture of related and complementary industries.

The study of the economic situation is not only a determination of its current state, but also a forecast of directions and trends in the development of the market. This is necessary for the organization to develop decisions in the field of marketing of goods and services, as well as for planning scientific, technical and production activities.

Market research involves:

Analysis of pricing and sales;

Determination of market potential and market share;

Development of short-term and long-term forecast.

Market research is a purposeful collection and processing of information about the state of the commodity market, analysis of the features of its functioning, forecasting of the main parameters and trends in the development of the market in order to adopt effective marketing solutions. This study is the basis for making effective management decision by any kind economic activity organizations. Specific goals and objectives in the field of production and sale of products in the domestic and foreign markets should dictate the direction, scope and depth of market research.

The purpose of market research can be: to determine the market capacity, the dynamics and level of the price of goods, the volume of sales of goods, exports or imports, and so on.

The objects of market research are:

General business environment. The study of this conjuncture involves a detailed examination of the macroeconomic processes and trends taking place in the national economy of a single country or the world economy as a whole;

commodity market conditions. This study includes an analysis and forecast of the state of the market for a particular product and involves the study of the industries of production and consumption of the products in question, their relationships, as well as the infrastructure support of the market under study.

Analysis of the general economic situation or the situation of a particular commodity market, depending on the objectives of the study, can be carried out in two ways:

If the task is to find out the trends in the development of market conditions for a certain period, then the analysis is carried out by studying its dynamics over this period;

If the task is to determine the market situation for the current date, then the analysis is carried out taking into account the phase of the economic cycle in this period.

A feature of market research is that the researcher always deals only with specific indicators (figures) that characterize the state of the research object. The analysis of these indicators should provide answers to the questions posed. Therefore, before embarking on the research process, it is necessary to draw up a list of questions and indicators necessary for a correct assessment of the object.

Market Analysis

The market as a complex socio-economic category can be characterized by numerous indicators, depending on the purpose of the study.

Analysis of market conditions allows:

Determine the parameters of the market, identify the position of the enterprise on it;

Identify competitors in the industry and assess the level of competition;

To study the need and demand of consumers for a product (service);

To study the product, its place in the market and the degree to which it satisfies the needs of buyers;

Predict (simulate) the prospects of the product;

Define activities to meet changing customer needs.

Analysis of market conditions is the basis for developing tactics and strategy of the enterprise (both in the present and in the future), forecasting market conditions and the state of competition - the most important elements of analysis.

The market forecast presents possible changes in the structure and volume of consumption, which are compared with estimates of the development of the production of goods, which makes it possible to obtain forecasts of sales, demand, supply and the relationship between them.

When compiling a market forecast as part of a general marketing forecast, information is used from a variety of analytical (environment, consumer, product, enterprise).

The main purpose of studying the market situation is to establish to what extent the activity of industry and trade affects the state of the market, its development in the near future, and what measures should be taken to better satisfy the demand of the population for goods, to use the available goods more rationally. manufacturing enterprise opportunities. The results of studying the market conditions are intended for making operational decisions on managing the production and marketing of goods.

An integrated approach to the study of market conditions involves the use of various, complementary sources of information; a combination of a retrospective analysis with a forecast of indicators characterizing the market situation; aggregate application various methods analysis and forecasting.

The study of market conditions is based on the analysis of indicators characterizing the production and supply of goods in this group, the volume and structure retail, commodity stocks in warehouses of the enterprise, in wholesale and retail trade.

When studying the market situation, the task is not only to determine the state of the market at one time or another, but also to predict the likely nature of its further development for at least one or two quarters, but no more than a year and a half. The results of the analysis of predicted indicators of market conditions in combination with reporting and planning data make it possible to develop measures in advance aimed at developing positive processes, eliminating existing and preventing possible imbalances.

By its nature, the forecast of market indicators is a short-term forecast. Its specificity lies in the fact that the accuracy of short-term forecasts increases in comparison with annual ones, and this accuracy decreases.

Tasks in the study of market conditions

In a certain period of time, select specific and most recent information from information sources throughout the market, namely, identify all competitors, study the range of products, study the pricing policy, determine the circle of people for whom your company will produce products, and other indicators.

Systematize these indicators.

To establish the strength and scale of the impact of the relevant conjuncture-forming factors, their relationship and interdependence and direction of action.

To identify the activity of interaction of these factors in the near future to develop a forecast.

Market analysis includes the study of two interrelated blocks −

general business environment and

market conditions for a particular product.

To analyze the market situation, a study is carried out:

General economic situation in the country, region;

commodity market conditions;

Offers;

Trends in the development of supply and demand for a given product (service);

Development and satisfaction of needs for goods (services).

To analyze the general economic situation, the results of studying the external environment of the enterprise are used.

Among the most important indicators of the general economic situation, we will name the following:

The volume and dynamics of the gross national product, national income, production in the sectors of the national economy;

Investment size;

The value of the average and real wages;

The number of people employed in the national economy and industries;

Indicators of the state of the domestic market (commodity stocks, volume and structure of retail trade, etc.);

Dynamics of wholesale and retail prices, inflation indices;

Standards of living;

Dynamics of foreign economic activity;

Stock market indices;

Unemployment rate.

The analysis of the commodity market situation begins with a study of the demand in the commodity market, which is carried out for individual market segments:

Consumer sector (population);

industrial consumption;

government consumption;

Export.

The most difficult for analysis and forecasting is the consumer sector due to the interaction of a large number of factors: demographic, socio-economic, climatic, scientific and technical, psychological, national, etc.

The volume of demand depends on the purchasing power of the population, which is determined by the level of real income, the conditions for obtaining loans, the amount of savings, the ratio between the costs of purchasing goods and services. The amount of funds of the population allocated for the purchase of goods is the volume of effective demand.

specific product, i.e. the volume of goods consumed (purchased) for a certain period of time is defined as the volume of production, taking into account changes in the stocks of goods and the balance of exports and imports. When the demand for a product is not fully satisfied, the phenomenon of unsatisfied effective demand arises, which is not typical for market economy or manifests itself in the initial stages of the emergence of a new product on the market.

Market capacity can also be determined using data on realized demand or the volume of retail turnover of a given product. When conducting an analysis, it must be remembered that the cost indicators of demand include wholesale and retail margins on goods. In this regard, it is recommended to supplement the cost analysis with an analysis of demand in physical terms (pieces, kilograms, liters), taking into account the structure of retail and wholesale prices, as well as their changes.

The volume of industrial consumption of the commodity market is determined by the value of consumer purchases. Among the factors can be noted general economic, sectoral, on-farm.

The volume of state consumption is determined by the state order for goods. The main factors in the development of this sector of the market are the needs of the state in this product and its financial capabilities.

The volume of exports of goods reduces the capacity of the market. Export values are recorded by government customs services, and data on them are published in statistical collections.

Among the factors affecting export deliveries, the following should be noted:

Competitiveness of goods in the world market;

Foreign economic policy of countries of exporters and importers;

Export opportunities of the exporting country.

The proposal analysis provides for:

Quantitative assessment of the proposal in terms of cost and physical indicators; determination of the offer structure in terms of assortment varieties of goods by prices, types, models, quality, design, novelty, etc.;

Calculation of the share of individual suppliers (manufacturers and sellers) on the goods market, including the share of imports in the total supply;

Identification of global trends in the development of this market and the possible consequences of such trends for the country's market.

Analysis of trends in the development of supply and demand in the market under study serves as a logical continuation of the previous stages of analysis. At this stage, the main task is to identify trends in the dynamics of cost and natural meters of supply and demand, to determine the quantitative and qualitative factors influencing volumetric and structural changes in supply and demand, to compare the identified trends in the country's market with trends in other regions and other countries; determine the stage life cycle on which the item is located. The results of this analysis are a reflection of the process of satisfying the needs expressed by the buyers of the goods.

The study of the conjuncture of the commodity market ends with an analysis of the development and satisfaction of needs, in the process of which the development of a need expressed and satisfied by means of a product, the emergence of new varieties of it or, conversely, a decrease in need or its disappearance is monitored. In addition, the possibility of satisfying the need with the help of another product is being studied - a substitute, probably not yet on the market.

The tasks of researching needs are of a qualitative nature and are solved mainly through surveys of consumers and specialists - marketers, merchandisers, sociologists. The results of the analysis of the conjuncture of the commodity market, together with the forecast of the general economic situation, become the basis for the development of a market forecast.

Anton Gagen, Tatyana Nikolaevna Paramonova, Doctor of Economics

Especially for Information Agency "Financial Lawyer"

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