Processing analysis development of recommendations making management decisions. Features of making and implementing management decisions - abstract. Study of the activities of LLC "Element-Trade". Analysis of financial stability, business activity and profitability of pre

SPECIALTY: Organization management DISCIPLINE: Management decisions COURSE WORK On the subject: "FEATURES OF MAKING AND IMPLEMENTING MANAGEMENT DECISIONS"

Introduction …………………………………………………………………… .3 p.

1. Analysis theoretical aspects and implementation problems management decisions

1.1 Decision making process and its structure ………………………… .5 p.

1.2 Basic procedures of the management decision making process. 6 p.

2. Analysis of the enterprise LLC "Status" on the problem and implementation of management decisions

2.1 Characteristics of the enterprise ……………………………………… ..13 p.

2.2 Analysis of decision making ………………………………………… ... 17 pp.

2.3 Analysis of the implementation of decisions ………………………………………… 21 pp.

3.1 Factors of the effectiveness of management decisions ……………… ..25 p.

3.2 Methods of modeling and optimization of solutions ………………… ..25 p.

Conclusion ……………………………………………………………… .29 p.

References ………………………………………………………. 31 p.

INTRODUCTION

Among the many problems of modern management, the most important are the development, adoption and implementation of a managerial decision, which is the main tool for managing influence. This problem is not purely academic. It has a very serious applied value, which inevitably increases with the complication of economic situations and managerial tasks that require solution. This is evidenced by the increasing scale of losses as a result of even small mistakes made in the solution.

Effective decision-making is essential for the fulfillment of managerial functions. Therefore, the decision-making process is at the center of management theory. Management science seeks to improve the effectiveness of organizations by increasing the ability of management to make informed, objective decisions in situations of extreme complexity using models and quantitative methods.

Management decisions can be made in relation to any area of the organization's activities: personnel management, financial management, management production processes, including the management of the marketing service.

The relevance of the work is explained by the fact that the existence of any organization is impossible without the constant daily adoption and implementation of certain decisions at various levels of management. At the same time, managerial decisions are aimed at achieving the most optimal result of organizational and production system... The job of managers, scientists, engineers, lawyers is to make decisions and solve problems. There is nothing more important to the well-being of society than doing this job effectively.

Decision making is an important and complex process. However, many leaders believe that making decisions is nothing more than choosing one of several possible courses of action. Alas, these kinds of decisions are just one step in a complex and dynamic process.

The purpose term paper is the study of the functional organization of the management decision-making process, as well as consideration of the order and methods of decision-making.

1. Analysis of theoretical aspects, problems and implementation of management decisions

Under decision making technology one should understand the composition and sequence of procedures leading to the solution of the organization's problems, in combination with methods for developing and optimizing alternatives.

For a leader, decision-making is not an end in itself. The main thing that a manager should be concerned about is not the choice of the alternative itself, but the resolution of a certain managerial problem. To solve a problem, very often not a single solution is required, but a certain sequence of solutions and, most importantly, their implementation. Therefore, a decision is not a one-time act, but the result of a process that develops in time and has a certain structure. Based on this, we can give the following definition of this process.

Decision making process - it a cyclical sequence of actions of the subject of management, aimed at solving the problems of the organization and consisting in analyzing the situation, generating alternatives, making a decision and organizing its implementation.

The most holistic and visual representation of the decision-making process is provided by a diagram that reflects its main stages and the order in which they follow (Fig. 1.1).

Rice. 1.1 - The composition and sequence of procedures for the management decision-making process

However, it should be noted that this scheme is an idealized model, since real decision-making processes, due to the variety of organizations, situations and problems that need to be solved, as a rule, differ from it, i.e. in fact, the structure of the PPPD is largely determined by the situation and the problem being solved

Analysis of the situation. For the emergence of the need to make a managerial decision, you need a signal about an external or internal influence that has caused or is capable of causing a deviation from a given mode of operation of the system, i.e. the presence of a management situation. Therefore, one of the most important conditions for making the right decision is to analyze the situation.

Analysis of the management situation requires the collection and processing of information. This stage performs the function of the organization's perception of the external and internal environment. Data on the state of the main factors external environment and the state of affairs in the organization go to managers and specialists who classify, analyze information and compare the real values of the controlled parameters with the planned or predicted ones, which in turn allows them to identify the problems that need to be solved.

Identifying the problem. The first step towards solving a problem is its definition or diagnosis, complete and correct. As they say, correctly formulating a problem means half solving it.

There are two views on the essence of the problem. According to one, a problem is considered a situation when the set goals are not achieved or there is a deviation from a given level, for example, a foreman can establish that labor productivity or the quality of products in his area is below normal. In line with the other, the potential for efficiency gains should also be considered as a problem. Combining both of these approaches, we will understand by the problem the discrepancy between the desired and real state of the controlled object.

Identifying and formulating a problem is a complex procedure. The fact is that at the moment of their emergence, many of the most important problems are poorly structured, i.e. do not contain obvious goals, alternative ways to achieve them, ideas about the costs and effects associated with each of the options, and bringing these problems to quantitative certainty (structuring) requires from managers not only knowledge and experience, but also talent, intuition, and creativity.

In medical terminology, the first step in diagnosing a complex problem is to identify the symptoms. Common symptoms of an organization's illness are: low - profit, sales, labor productivity, quality of goods and services; high - costs, staff turnover, numerous conflicts. Revealing the symptoms helps to define the problem in general terms, however, just as different diseases often have common symptoms (headache can be caused by ordinary fatigue and hypertension), different reasons can cause similar organizational problems (poor quality of goods can be a consequence of worn-out equipment and insufficient qualifications of workers). Therefore, managers should investigate the causes of the problem in more depth and not rush to eliminate only its symptoms.

It should also not be forgotten that all elements and activities in the organization are interrelated and the solution of any problem in one part of the organization can cause problems in others. Therefore, when defining the problem to be solved, one should strive to ensure that the number of new problems arising in this case is minimal.

Determination of selection criteria. Before considering possible solutions to the problem, the manager needs to determine the indicators by which the comparison of alternatives will be made and the choice of the best one. These indicators are usually called selection criteria. For example, when deciding to purchase new equipment, you can focus on the criteria of price, productivity, operating costs, ergonomics, etc. , age, personal qualities.

Development of alternatives. The next step is to develop a set of alternative solutions to the problem. Ideally, it is desirable to identify all possible alternative ways to solve the problem, only in this case the solution can be optimal. However, in practice, the manager does not have (and cannot have) such reserves of knowledge and time to formulate and evaluate every possible alternative. Managers are well aware that finding the optimal solution is very difficult, time-consuming and expensive, so they are looking not for the optimal, but a good enough, acceptable option that allows you to remove the problem and helps to cut off unsuitable alternatives in advance, the selection criteria defined in the previous stage.

Along with the situation when options for solving a problem are known in advance or are discovered without special difficulties, there are often situations in which the problem to be solved has not been encountered before, i.e. possible alternatives are unknown and must first be formulated. In such cases, brainstorming the problem and generating alternatives can be very helpful.

Choosing an alternative. Having developed possible solutions to the problem, they must be evaluated, i.e. compare the advantages and disadvantages of each alternative and objectively analyze the likely results of their implementation. To compare solutions, you need to have standards or criteria by which you can compare them. These selection criteria were established in the third stage. With their help, the choice of the best alternative is made.

Since the choice is made, as a rule, on the basis of several criteria, and not one, it always has the character of a compromise. In addition, when assessing possible solution options, the manager actually deals with predictive estimates of the compared values, and they are always probabilistic. Therefore, it is very important to take into account the risk factor, i.e. determine the likelihood of each alternative being implemented. Taking into account the risk factor leads to a revision of the very concept of the best solution: it is not the option that maximizes or minimizes a certain indicator, but the one that ensures its achievement with the highest degree of probability.

Approval of the solution. In modern management systems, as a result of the division of labor, a situation has developed in which some employees of the organization prepare, develop a decision, accept or approve - others, and execute - still others. In other words, the manager often approves and bears responsibility for a decision that he did not develop, the specialists who prepared and analyzed the decision do not participate in its implementation, and the executors do not participate in the preparation and discussion of the decisions being prepared. Management decision making in an organization is often mistakenly viewed as an individual rather than a group process. Meanwhile, although the main stages of PPR by organizations and individuals coincide, the formation of decisions in an organization differs significantly from individual decision-making. It is the organization, not the individual leader, who must respond to emerging problems. And not one leader, but all members of the organization should strive to improve the efficiency of its work. Of course, managers choose the course for the organization, but for the solution to be implemented, the joint action of all members of the organization is necessary. Therefore, in group decision-making processes, the stage of agreement plays a very significant role.

Ideally, the performers will act in accordance with the decisions of the managers, but the practice is far from ideal and this is not always the case. Recognition of a decision is rarely automatic, even if it is clearly good. Therefore, the leader must convince the correctness of his point of view, prove to employees that his decision brings benefits to both the organization and its individual members. Practice shows that the probability of a quick and effective implementation increases significantly when performers have the opportunity to express their opinion on the decision being made, make suggestions, comments, etc. Then the decision made is perceived as his own, and not imposed "from above". Therefore, the best way to agree on a decision is to involve employees in the decision-making process. Of course, this method does not need to be absolutized: there are situations when it is impossible or not rational and the manager is forced to make a decision alone, without resorting to discussions and agreements, but we must remember that systematic ignoring of the opinion of subordinates leads to an authoritarian style of leadership.

Implementation management. The process of solving the problem does not end with the choice of an alternative: in order to obtain a real effect, the decision made must be implemented. This is precisely the main task of this stage.

For successful implementation solutions, first of all, it is necessary to determine the complex of works and resources and distribute them by executors and terms, i.e. foresee who, where, when and what actions should be taken and what resources are needed for this. If we are talking about large enough solutions, this may require the development of a program for the implementation of the solution. During the implementation of this plan, the manager should monitor how the decision is being implemented, provide assistance if necessary, and make certain adjustments.

Monitoring and evaluation of results. Even after the decision is finally put into effect, the decision-making process cannot be considered completely complete, since it is still necessary to make sure whether it justifies itself. This goal is served by the control stage, which performs the function of feedback in this process. This stage measures and evaluates the consequences of a decision or compares actual results with those that the manager hoped to get.

The problem of controlling managerial decisions is very relevant, especially for large bureaucratic organizations. You can make a lot of reasonable and useful decisions, but without a rationally organized execution control system, they will remain in the "bowels of office work" and will not give the expected effect.

Conclusion:

The immediate results of managerial decisions are changes occurring in the process of joint activities of people, in the complex of economic and social indicators of production and economic activities of enterprises. This necessitates the consideration of the main provisions of the theory of decision-making and their application in the practical activities of managers.

In its most general form, decision-making theory is a section of management science that includes the study of the problems of setting goals and objectives, the definition of criteria and indicators of information support for decision options and their optimization.

In addition, in order to be of high quality, the control solution must be robust in terms of efficiency against possible errors in determining the initial data and flexible - to provide for changes in goals and algorithms for achieving goals. Otherwise, insignificant deviations of the initial data, which may arise at any time and for various reasons, will transfer the managerial decision from the category of effective to ineffective.

2. Analysis of the enterprise LLC "Status" on the problem and implementation of management decisions

2.1 Characteristics of the enterprise

The enterprise LLC Status considered in the work is engaged in the production and sale of building materials... The company was formed on the basis of a former supply base six years ago. This explains the fact that the company has a staff of production specialists, and the sales of products are at a low level.

You can imagine the enterprise in question as a system. Below is a table of functions and elements of the organization.

To diagnose problems and further forecast, it is necessary to conduct a detailed analysis of the forecast object.

The purpose of the analysis is to obtain the information necessary to diagnose the problem and predict the development of the controlled object in the interests of the manager's decision-making.

Analysis involves the study of:

Macroenvironment;

Competitive environment;

Internal environment.

Like any system, the organization under consideration acts in the aggregate and in interaction with the external environment. This interaction is manifested in the following:

In the purchase of raw materials and materials from third-party suppliers;

In the selection and change of personnel;

In the influence of tastes and preferences of consumers on the range of products;

In the actions of competitors;

In the regulation of the organization's activities by state and other authorities, etc.

The analysis of the macroenvironment showed that the company is influenced by the legal authorities in the field of compulsory licensing of activities and certification of products. This influence is felt in daily activities, but does not carry a negative impact and decrease in the performance of the activity. The costs incurred by the company in the course of the implementation of the listed activities are attributed to the reduction of profits.

The political processes taking place in the country also have an indirect effect to the extent that the purchasing power of the population decreases in relation to all goods and services, and in particular to building materials.

The development of scientific and technological progress and the achievements of modern technologies have a greater impact in comparison with the previous parameters. This is expressed in the development modern materials and technologies for their production, as well as in the improvement of traditional construction methods. This process reduces the competitiveness of traditional building materials and technologies and forces them out of the market.

The analysis of objects and subjects of management is carried out in a systemic unity with the analysis of the external environment.

The study of the competitive environment made it possible to reveal the fact that direct competitors, i.e. manufacturers of similar products do not have a strong impact on consumers, market segments are divided approximately proportionally. There is a circle of regular consumers in the form of large industrial enterprises and construction organizations... Manufacturers of a morally different assortment of building materials have taken away some of the consumers and do not have a significant impact on the formed market conditions.

A problem has been detected at the enterprise. A problem is understood as a critical mismatch between the desired and the actual state. In this case, it is well-established production and poorly delivered sales, while with good production sales should not lag behind in order to be able to invest free financial resources in an even greater expansion of production or its improvement.

Awareness of the problem consists in establishing the fact of its existence based on the results of monitoring activities or researching market opportunities. The problem, which has reached a certain acuteness, is transformed into a motive for the activities of the organization and its managers.

The process of constructing a tree of problems allows you to structure the problem. The problem tree is shown in Fig. 2.1.

Based on the results of the work on identifying the problem, the goal was set for the personnel of the enterprise - to increase the sales of finished products within 6 months and increase consumer preference in the direction of our products.

The goal set meets all the necessary requirements for the goals: it is clear and understandable for the performers, it is measurable quantitative methods, it has a timeline for implementation, it is consistent with the global goal of the entire organization.

2.2 Decision making analysis

Further, according to the materials presented on the work done to identify problems, the management of the enterprise identified the most important problem for the strategic development of the enterprise. It is associated with the restructuring of the principles of the marketing division of the company. Within the framework of solving this problem, several directions of its solution can be distinguished. On the one hand, this is a change in the methodological approach to the organization of the marketing service at the enterprise. On the other hand, it is a change in the influence of the human factor on solving the problem.

Several options for solving this problem can be proposed. We present them in the form of a decision tree (Fig. 2.2)

Rice. 2.2 - Decision tree .

The algorithm for choosing a method for solving a specific problem is shown in Figure 2.3.

According to the above algorithm for choosing and making a managerial decision on the problem of increasing the efficiency of the firm "Status", the following solutions were selected and evaluated as the most consistent with the set goals and objectives:

1. To form a new structure of the marketing department of the company.

2. Adopt as the main in the system of personnel motivation the program of material interest of the personnel in increasing the volume of sales and bonuses based on the results of the company's activity for each quarter.

3. Build a sales system by attracting dealers and distributors on a contractual basis.

4. Set the pricing policy according to the "costs plus" system.

5. Conduct a study of the building materials market and consumer preferences, and then develop a range of products and a production program in accordance with the research results.

The criterion of the effectiveness of a managerial decision is expressed, as a rule, in the form of a set of indicators and acts as a measure of knowledge of the phenomenon under study.

When choosing a criterion for the effectiveness of a solution, one should be guided by the following basic requirements:

first, it must be quantified, i.e. have a physical meaning;

secondly, it should most fully reflect the results of the decision;

thirdly, to be simple, clear and specific enough.

As a rule, the process of choosing an efficiency criterion is based on logical reasoning and intuition of the decision maker.

The criterion for assessing the effectiveness of solving the problem posed will be the creation of such marketing service at an enterprise in which all manufactured products will be sold during the production period of the next batch of products with maximum profit.

For the final decision-making on each investigated option, it is necessary to compare both the effect obtained as a result of the decision and the possible costs (cash, labor, material and other resources) for its implementation. A quantitative assessment of the effect obtained as a result of making a decision is expressed not only in monetary form, but also depends on changes in the composition of capital investments, social working conditions, psychological climate, etc. Comparison of options involves the elimination of unsuitable and the selection of the most acceptable. The analysis is carried out using the methods of economic and systems analysis.

2.3 Analysis of the implementation of the solution

In the most general form, the choice of the final solution is determined by the nature of the task, the available resources, information security of the management process.

Of the proposed solutions to the problem, two did not immediately satisfy the firm:

firstly, it is not possible to change the pricing policy, since this market independently adjusts the price level based on supply and demand;

secondly, the change in the structure of the marketing service is considered not advisable, because the firm has qualified specialists, and the search for new personnel will take time and lead to additional costs of money.

Only options for changing the sales strategy based on the study of customer demand remained realistically possible.

To make a decision that requires determining and taking into account a significant number of factors, it is advisable to involve those employees who are more or less familiar with the problem posed and will be able to give certain recommendations when considering it. It is noted that group decisions are effective provided that the group is small in composition and the number of its members there is an opportunity for direct communication to discuss decisions. At the same time, the value of a decision made by a group is higher and its competence is greater than a decision taken alone.

So, a decision was made to change the sales strategy while simultaneously studying consumers and their demand for products.

To do this, we made the following tree of goals (Fig. 2.4)

In accordance with the given decision tree, it is necessary to establish all the moments of risk in order to exclude them in advance from the practice of the company. For the considered production enterprise "Status", the following risk situations can be distinguished:

The developed range of products is not in demand on the market and there was a need for an urgent sale of stock balances in order to prevent stoppages of the production process;

There was a technological failure, which resulted in non-fulfillment of contractual obligations and additional costs for the restoration of the production process and penalties;

There was a break in contractual relations with one of the dealers, who bore the main burden of selling products, which can cause stagnation of finished products in the warehouse;

To localize the above risk situations, one can cite a variant of possible activity with several dealers at once and simultaneously maintain its own sales network. This means that it is necessary to conclude agency agreements simultaneously with several firms in order to prevent failure in activities due to failures in the work of one large agent. At the same time, the issue of coordinating delivery and shipment schedules is acute in order to avoid non-cyclicality in the implementation process. That is, the schedule should be drawn up in such a way that in each period of time the products are necessarily received by a dealer, and if there is a need to accumulate a large volume of products to one consumer, then at this time the products are not shipped to other consumers.

On the other hand, it is necessary to produce several types of products, and not to rely on any one product, so that interchangeability exists.

Conclusions:

Firm "Status" has identified a problem in its activities - unsatisfactory construction of a system for the sale of products with successful production. This work, based on theoretical material, considers options for solving the identified problem.

As a result of the development of a management solution for the "Status" firm, a range of measures was developed to improve the product sales system and the marketing service, including activities for market research and development of an appropriate range of products, changes in the sales system through the creation of a dealer network.

In the process of developing a management solution, two more possible options were rejected - a change in the pricing policy and a change in the company's personnel.

In conclusion, I would like to note the importance of correct and timely management decision-making.

Before making decisions, people mentally replay various options, considering this to be the best way to find the best one. Therefore, it will be useful to cite here some practical advice developed by E. Starobinsky in his book "How to manage personnel".

1) don't fuss. Each decision needs to be considered, and it takes time.

Determine for yourself the time it will take to resolve. Analyze the option that comes to mind. Note the pros and cons. This consistency develops our ability to make decisions.

2) choose a strategy of behavior. This is very important when deciding fundamental issues. Fundamental decisions should not distort the strategy of behavior and contradict life attitudes. Otherwise, you should think about revising your views.

3) Subject to a serious analysis of the current situation. In this case, the validity of the proposed decision will be revealed. For decision-making, this step becomes fundamental.

4) when making a decision is important common sense, this is especially important when there are many alternatives to the solution. Rely on logic, it will help you make the best decision.

5) be creative. Being creative can help you make unconventional decisions. Taking initiative and creativity will help you get the results you want.

3.1 Factors of the effectiveness of management decisions

The effectiveness of management decisions is determined by many quantitative and qualitative factors of a technical, technological, socio-economic and organizational nature.

The technical and technological factors for increasing the efficiency of managerial decisions include: the machine-to-labor ratio, the degree of use of office equipment, the technical culture of specialists and technical executors other.

Socio-economic factors include: the authority of the leader, interpersonal relationships, psychological characteristics, conflict situations, the system of moral and material incentives, sanitary and hygienic working conditions, fatigue, physical activity, the general health of workers, and others.

Organizational factors: the degree of rationality of the structure of the management apparatus, the state of division and cooperation of labor, the selection and placement of personnel, the organization of performance, the organization of jobs, the rationality of the use of working time.

When solving the problem of determining the efficiency of decision-making, it is very important to take into account the action and interaction of various groups of factors, to determine the quantitative influence both on the efficiency of production management activities and on the final results of production efficiency.

3.2 Methods for Modeling and Optimizing Solutions

In the process of solving complex problems in order to enhance the ability of managers to make informed and objective decisions, various scientific methods of their development and optimization can be used, the arsenal of which is usually divided into two main classes:

Modeling methods;

Expert assessment methods.

Modeling methods (also called operations research methods) are based on the use of mathematical models to solve the most common management problems.

The development and optimization of a solution to a specific problem using modeling methods is a rather complex procedure, which can be represented by a sequence of main stages:

Formulation of the problem;

Determination of the criterion for the effectiveness of the analyzed operation;

Quantitative measurement of factors influencing the investigated operation;

Building a mathematical model of the object under study (operation);

Quantitative solution of the model and finding the optimal solution;

Checking the adequacy of the model and the found solution to the analyzed situation;

Correction and updating of the model. The number of all kinds of specific models is almost as great as the number of problems for which they are designed. A detailed consideration of them is beyond the scope of this textbook and is the subject of a special academic discipline, therefore, we will name only the most common types of models.

Game theory models. Most business transactions can be viewed as actions performed in the face of opposition. Counteractions should include, for example, factors such as an accident, fire, theft, strike, violation of contractual obligations, etc. However, the most widespread case of opposition is competition. Therefore, one of the most important conditions on which the success of an organization depends is competitiveness. It is clear that the ability to predict the actions of competitors is a significant advantage for any commercial organization. When making a decision, you should choose an alternative that allows you to reduce the degree of resistance, which in turn will reduce the degree of risk.

Such an opportunity is provided to the manager by game theory, the mathematical models of which induce to analyze possible alternatives to their actions, taking into account the possible retaliatory actions of competitors. Originally developed for military-strategic purposes, game theory models are also used in business to predict the reaction of competitors to decisions made, for example, to price changes, the release of new goods and services, entry into new market segments, etc.

So, making a decision to change the price level for "its goods, the management of the company must predict the reaction and possible responses of the main competitors. in order not to be at a disadvantage, she must abandon this alternative and look for another solution to the problem.

However, it should be noted that these models are used quite rarely, since they turn out to be too simplified in comparison with real economic situations, so volatile that the forecasts obtained are not very reliable.

Queuing theory models. Queuing theory (or optimal service) models are used to find the optimal number of service channels for a certain level of demand for them. Situations in which such models can be useful include, for example, determining the number of phone lines needed to answer calls from customers, trolleybuses on the route needed to avoid long queues at stops, or tellers at a bank so that customers do not wait. until they can be dealt with, etc. The problem here is that additional service channels (more telephone lines, trolleybuses or bank employees) require additional resources, and their load is uneven (excessive throughput in some periods of time and the appearance of queues in others). Therefore, it is necessary to find a solution that allows balancing the additional costs of expanding service channels and losses from their lack. The queuing theory models are precisely the tool for finding such an optimal solution.

Conclusions:

In addition to the economic aspect, the social aspect of the effectiveness of decision-making is also important. It is important to take into account: the long-term significance of decisions, their possible result and consequences, the level of compliance of the decisions made with the tasks of social development. It is necessary to foresee the possible consequences of the impact of decisions not only on the direct executors, but also on the general population, changes in their psychology, in the way of thinking and behavior, style of activity, etc.

The main indicators of the social efficiency of decisions made include: improving working conditions, increasing job satisfaction, reducing staff turnover, reducing the cost of hard and unskilled labor, developing creative activity and initiative, improving interpersonal relations, etc.

Conclusion

At the end of the work, I would like to highlight the main points.

1. The impulse of a managerial decision is the need to eliminate, reduce the urgency or solve the problem, i.e. approximation in the future of the real parameters of the object (phenomenon) to the desired, predicted.

2. To solve the problem, it is necessary to answer the following questions: what to do (object)? how to do (technology)? for whom (consumers)? at what price? with what parameters? at what cost? how much? in what time frame? where? to whom (performers)?

3. Basic requirements for the quality of information for making management decisions: timeliness, reliability, reliability, complexity, targeting, legal correctness, reusability, high speed of collection and processing, the ability to code, relevance.

4. The main parameters of the quality of managerial decisions should include: the entropy indicator, the degree of risk of investment, the probability of implementing the decision, the degree of adequacy of the theoretical model to the actual data.

5. The main conditions for ensuring high quality and efficiency of managerial decisions include: the use of scientific approaches to the development of solutions, the study of the influence of economic laws on the efficiency of solutions, the provision of high-quality information, the use of methods of functional cost analysis, forecasting, modeling and economic justification, building a tree of goals , ensuring the comparability of alternative options, multivariate solutions, legal validity, automation, motivation for a high-quality solution, the availability of a solution implementation mechanism.

6. Alternative options for management decisions should be presented in a comparable form in terms of time factors, quality of facilities, scale of production, level of development, method of obtaining information, conditions of use of the facility, factors of inflation, risk and uncertainty.

7. The principles of economic substantiation of management decisions include: accounting for the time factor, accounting for costs and benefits for the life cycle of an object, application of systematic and integrated approaches to the calculation, multivariance, comparability of options, accounting for the factor of uncertainty and risk.

Management decision making is a very important factor in the activities of any modern company. Without correct management decisions and effective management, the economic prosperity of the company is unlikely.

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PAGE 8

Introduction …………………………………………………………………………..3

…………………………………………………...4

1.1. Modeling method as the main direction of activating managerial thinking ..................... 4

1.2. The method of expert assessments in management activities as a means of enhancing management thinking ……………………………………… .6

…………………..8

2.1. The process and specifics of the process of making managerial decisions in the organization ………………………………………………………………………… .8

2.2. Leader's activities in improving the efficiency of decision-making ……………………………………………………………………… ..10

Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………...11

………………………12

Introduction

The relevance of the topic of the work lies in the fact that the importance of the strategic type of management increases along with an increase in the number of hierarchical systems, an increase in the volume and complexity of tasks and problems solved by the hierarch in hierarchical management systems, an increase in the volume and scale of problems in super-hierarchical systems of the integrity of societies and civilizational integrations ...

Thanks to the development of methodology in Russia, it became possible to analyze and design socio-technical, sociocultural, socio-political systems of any scale at a qualitatively new level. This inevitably affects scientific research, project technological game-modeling and pedagogical developments, the quality of consulting and the prospect of reaching a qualitatively new level of functioning and development of managerial hierarchies, including public administration.

The subject of the research is the process of activating managerial thinking at the current stage of management development.

The object of research is management as a process and managerial thinking.

The purpose of the work is a general characteristic of methods for activating thinking in the development of management decisions.

Based on this goal, the following work tasks can be formulated:

To study the methods of modeling and expert assessments as the main directions and means of activating managerial thinking.

2. Analyze the process of making management decisions.

The work used materials from periodicals, Internet sources, as well as scientific works of the following authors: Anisimova O.S., Bolshakov A.S., Kulagova I.A., Durdenko V.A. and etc.

1. Making managerial decisions in the context of activating managerial thinking

1.1. Modeling method as the main direction of activating managerial thinking

Modeling of managerial decisions should be used as the main direction of improving the process of making managerial decisions, improving their quality.

The class of economic and mathematical (research) models is formed by the so-called informal models, i.e. such models, in which, along with documented (objective) information, subjective information obtained by research paths may be encountered.

Other model variants are also used to model management decisions. The most essential features of the "Plan" model are that this group of models presupposes the existence of an operating system, for which a form for setting a goal, a certain procedure for achieving it, and the resources required for this are being developed. In the innovation plan (project), a set of target settings of the adopted strategy is implemented, adaptation to changes in the external environment, differentiation in the market space is provided, target settings for the functions of the organization's activities are formed. In the operational plan (business plan), within the target setting, a plan of production, economic and financial operations for all divisions of the organization is developed.

Thus, strategic and innovative planning (modeling) solves the issues of increasing the efficiency of the organization, focusing on the conditions of the external environment (market space), and operational (business planning) - on the internal environment of the organization.

The “Plan” group of models should include the anti-crisis (external) management plan, which is developed and implemented during the bankruptcy procedure. Considering that bankruptcy is a common occurrence in market economy, in the classification, the “Anti-crisis management plan” model stands out as an independent one.

Model "Forecast" (indicative plan) reflects the current management system in the future. This kind of model is a research tool. With its help, it becomes possible to expand information about the potential level of the organization in question. This type of model is used at the strategic level of an organization's management. The development of a forecast model is based on the use of the following elements of defining the economic system: time, time limit, goal, goal assessment, probability of goal achievement, measure of goal, area of socially useful goals, resources, probability of supporting goals, sequence of actions, ways to achieve goals, state of the external environment ...

The Program model is in many ways similar to the plan. It differs from the plan in that the program does not imply pre-existing performers, since the latter are determined in the process of implementing the program. In this aspect, the program is close to the forecast. The program is not just a model for setting goals, but also a model for setting the organizational structure of management, possibly a new one, which should achieve the set goal.

Economic and mathematical models represent the second class of simulation models. They can be summarized in a classification, the difference of which is in the joint grouping according to the characteristics of economic and economic-mathematical models and the use of classification characteristics for grouping the models.

Thus, modeling makes it possible to increase the efficiency of management decisions and the management process as a whole.

The method of expert assessments in management activities as a means of enhancing management thinking

Many factors that determine or influence the choice of a solution, by their nature, cannot be quantitatively characterized, others - practically cannot be measured. All this made it necessary to develop special methods that facilitate the choice of management decisions in complex technical, organizational, and economic problems (methods of operations research, expert assessments, etc.).

Operations research methods are used to express optimal solutions mainly in the following areas of management: production planning on a large scale; organization of production processes at enterprises; material and technical supply; organization of transportation.

Optimization of decisions consists in a comparative study of the numerical estimates of factors that cannot be estimated using conventional methods.

Methods of expert assessments are used in cases where the problem, in whole or in part, does not lend itself to formalization and cannot be solved by known mathematical methods.

Expertise is a study of complex special issues at the stage of developing a managerial decision by persons with special knowledge and experience in order to obtain conclusions, opinions, recommendations, assessments. In the course of expert research, the latest achievements of science and technology are used in the specialty of an expert.

The task of the expert is to use special knowledge in a particular area, past experience and intuition, to apply general laws and particular laws to develop specific management decisions and thereby ensure their optimality.

The expert opinion is drawn up in the form of a document, which records the progress of the study and its results. The introduction contains data: who, where, when, in connection with what organizes and conducts an examination.

The most effective application of methods of expert assessments in solving the following production management problems.

Analysis of complex processes, systems, phenomena, situations, characterized mainly by qualitative, non-formalized characteristics.
forecasting trends in the development of the production system and the interaction of the external environment with it.
Determination and ranking according to a given criterion of the most significant factors affecting the functioning and development of the production system.
Increasing the efficiency of mathematical-statistical and other formal methods due to a more accurate definition and assessment of some qualitative aspects, factors that are not amenable to formalization.
Improving the reliability of assessing target functions that are qualitative or quantitative by averaging the opinions of highly qualified specialists.
Identification and assessment of qualitative and quantitative criteria necessary for the selection of management decisions.
Evaluation of alternative solutions and highlighting some of the most preferred options.

Thus, today the role of management as a special kind of activity, social institution in the life of society is extremely great. Scientists, not without reason, believe that the absence modern system management based on intellectual strategy, modern information and analytical base, computer technology, automatically throws the country into the category of backward, even if all the resources for development are available.

2. Analysis of the process of making management decisions

2.1. The process and specifics of the management decision-making process in the organization

When considering decision-making processes, there are two points to keep in mind. The first is that decisions are generally relatively easy to make. Everything that a person does at the same time comes down to choosing a course of action. It's hard to make a good decision. The second point is that decision making is a psychological process. We all know from experience that human behavior is not always logical. Sometimes we are driven by logic, sometimes by feelings. Therefore, it is not surprising that the methods used by a leader to make decisions range from spontaneous to highly logical. A rational approach to decision-making is described below, but it is important to remember here that the leader is influenced by such psychological factors as social attitudes, accumulated experience and personal values. Next, I will consider the influence of some behavioral factors on the management decision-making process.

A purely intuitive decision is a choice made only on the basis of the feeling that it is correct. The decision-maker does not consciously weigh the pros and cons for each alternative and does not even need to understand the situation. It's just that a person makes a choice.

Judgment based decisions. Such decisions sometimes seem intuitive because their logic is not obvious. Judgment decision is a choice based on knowledge or past experience. A person uses knowledge of what happened in similar situations before to predict the outcome of alternative choices in the current situation. Using common sense, he chooses an alternative that has been successful in the past.

Rational problem solving. Problem solving, like management, is a process, for we are talking about an endless sequence of interrelated steps. The leader cares not so much about the decision as such, but about everything connected and arising from it. Solving a problem requires not a single solution, but a set of choices. Therefore, while the problem solving process can be thought of as a five-step process (plus implementation and feedback), the actual number of steps is determined by the problem itself.

1. Diagnosing the problem.

2. Formulation of limitations and criteria for decision making.

3. Definition of alternatives.

4. Assessment of alternatives.

5. Choosing an alternative.

6. Implementation.

7. Feedback .

In order to compare decisions, it is necessary to have a standard against which the likely outcomes of each possible alternative can be measured. If the problem has been correctly identified, and alternative solutions are carefully weighed and evaluated, make a choice. The problem solving process does not end with the choice of an alternative. Simple choice of course of action is of little value to the organization. To resolve a problem or to capitalize on an existing opportunity, a solution must be implemented. The level of effectiveness of the implementation of a decision will increase if it is recognized by those affected by it. Recognition of a decision is rare, but automatic, even if it is clearly good. Another phase entering the process of making a managerial decision and starting after the decision has taken effect is the establishment of feedback.

Thus, the process of making a managerial decision is rather complicated and consists of several stages.

2.2. Leader's activities in improving the efficiency of decision-making

For the successful implementation of the solution, first of all, it is necessary to determine the complex of works and resources and distribute them by executors and deadlines, i.e. foresee who, where, when and what actions should be taken and what resources are needed for this.

It should not be forgotten that the decision is always temporary. The period of its effective action can be considered equal to the period of relative constancy of the problem situation. Outside of it, a solution may cease to have an effect and even turn into its opposite - not contribute to the solution of the problem, but exacerbate it. In this regard, the main task of control is to timely identify the diminishing effectiveness of the decision and the need to correct it or make a new decision. In addition, the implementation of this stage is a source of accumulation and systematization of experience in decision-making. The problems of controlling managerial decisions are very relevant, especially for large bureaucratic organizations. You can make a lot of reasonable and useful decisions, but without a rationally organized execution control system, they will remain in the "bowels of office work" and will not give the expected effect. Control is the process of ensuring that an organization achieves its objectives. Monitoring includes setting standards, measuring actual results achieved and making adjustments if the results achieved differ materially from the established standards.

Thus, supporting successful actions is also a control function, which consists in supporting all that is successful in the organization's activities. It is necessary to determine which activities have effectively contributed to the achievement of the organization's objectives. This allows you to find the area of expansion of the organization's activities.

Conclusion

The paper considers the management theory based on a holistic concept that combines the methods and ideas of sociology, economics, psychology, cultural studies, philosophy, management. The main problem of which is the methods of activating thinking in the development of management decisions. Human behavior is unpredictable, since it is determined by many factors and circumstances - values, needs, worldview, attitudes, the level of volitional efforts, i.e. those that cannot be foreseen and taken into account.

When mastering the means and methods of methodology, there is not just a qualitative shift in the existence of abilities, their transformation - the fundamental guidelines and supports change. Identification with the methodological position, its inherent intellectual and motivational foundations sometimes turns not only into a condition for the successful solution of previous tasks and problems, the implementation of the previous type-activity function, but also into an independent significance, more important than the previous type-activity being.

Modeling of managerial decisions should be used as the main direction of the development of managerial thinking, improving the process of making managerial decisions, improving their quality. The plan, depending on the levels of the organization's management system, can be strategic, innovative and operational (business plan). Model "Forecast" (indicative plan) reflects the current management system in the future. This kind of model is a research tool. With its help, it becomes possible to expand information about the potential level of the organization in question. This type of model is used at the strategic level of an organization's management. The Program model is in many ways similar to the plan.

List of sources and literature used

Anisimov O.S. New managerial thinking: essence and ways of formation. / Anisimov O.S. - M .: Economics, 2003 .-- 196 p.
Bolshakov A.S. Modern management. / Bolshakov A.S. SPb: Peter, 2004 - 328 p.
Bukhalkov M.I. Intercompany planning. / Bukhalkov M.I. - M. INFRA-M, 2003 - 400 p.
Vikhansky O.S. Management. / Vikhanskiy O.S., Naumov A.I. - M .: Economist, 2004 - 528 p.
Durdenko V.A. Development of a management solution. / Durdenko V.A. - Voronezh: VIESU, 2004 .-- 147 p.
Zhuravlev P.V. Foreign management experience. / Zhuravlev P.V. - Yekaterinburg: Business Book, 2004 - 279 p.
Konev I. Systemic strategy of organizational changes in a developing corporation / Konev I. // Problems of theory and practice of management, 2009. - No. 3. - P.86-95.
Kulagova I.A., Intensification of the activities of managers and specialists - ways to improve the efficiency of management at the enterprise / Kulagova I.A., Bondarenko V.V. // Management portal www.dis.ru
A.A. Litvinyuk Organizational Behavior: A Textbook for Bachelors. - M .: Yurayt, 2012 .-- 505 p.
Mardas A.N. Organizational management. / Mardas A.N., Mardas O.A. - SPb .: Peter, 2003 - 336 p.
Skobkin S.S. Enterprise development strategy. - M .: Magister, 2010 - 432 p.
Slovesnikova S. Development Strategies and Corporate Governance: Recommendations for Medium Business Companies // Corporate Governance. - 2010. - No. 5. - 60-64s.

By studying this chapter, you will be able to:

discuss the classification features of management decisions, the requirements for them, methods and algorithms for development and adoption;
describe and explain the process of analyzing the relationship "costs - volume of production - profit";
to formulate the concept of analysis and decision-making in the field of pricing;
understand the use of pricing methods;
present and explain the process of analyzing and making long-term investment decisions.

ANALYSIS AND MAKING OF SHORT-TERM MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

In modern conditions of business functioning, the key task of management accounting is the accumulation of a variety of information that contributes to the adoption of correct and timely management decisions.

Under management decision making you should understand the set of selected actions aimed at the most effective solution of the task under the given conditions, taking into account external and internal factors economic environment.

The main indicator of the effectiveness of the decision made is optimality factor, which is characterized by such qualitative or quantitative indicators as profit, the amount of labor, time and other resources required to achieve the goal.

Management decisions are classified according to the following criteria:

political;
organizational;
technical;
economic;

by the number of decision-makers:

collective;
individual;

depending on the duration:

long-term;
medium-term;
short-term;

by the nature of the impact:

strategic;
tactical;

by the number of assigned tasks:

single-purpose;
multipurpose;

by the size of the controlled object:

are common;
local;

according to the degree of completeness and reliability of the available information:

decisions made in conditions of certainty;
decisions made under conditions of partial certainty;
decisions made in conditions of uncertainty;
decisions made in the face of risk;
decisions taken in a conflict.

In addition, a number of requirements are imposed on the decisions made, which they must fully comply with: be effective, timely, imply the rational use of enterprise resources, have economic justification, be realistically workable.

The development of management decisions is carried out according to the following general algorithm:

identifying the range of problems that need to be solved;
setting goals and objectives to be achieved within the framework of solving the identified problem;
choice of a decision-making method in a specific economic situation and criteria for the effectiveness of the results obtained;
development of complexes of measures to achieve the set goals;
assessment by the selected criterion of complexes of measures aimed at achieving the goal, and the choice of the optimal one. The implementation of this algorithm can be represented as

the process of preparation and adoption of operational, tactical and (or) strategic management decisions (Fig. 4).

When making decisions, the following conditions must be observed: the goal must be measured quantitatively and allow minimizing or maximizing some indicator of economic activity; consideration of possible events that can speed up or slow down the achievement of the goal; an indication of the probability of achieving each of the possible events, the results that can be obtained by considering the probability of the occurrence of one of the possible alternatives.

Rice. 4.

The process of making a managerial decision is based on predictive information about the future development of various events and factors based on the use of a set of models - descriptive, analytical, simulation (Fig. 5).

Descriptive models are used to identify and identify problem situations and tasks to be solved, and analytical and simulation models are used in the analysis of cause-and-effect relationships ("if ... then ..."), alternative solutions to the problem, the expected values of various options for action , comparing these options under given conditions in order to make decisions.

When making management decisions, various hypotheses about the state of the external environment are taken into account:

a) unambiguous expectations of the future state of the external environment (decisions in conditions of certainty):

Cm.: Sokolov Ya.V. Accounting: from the beginnings to the present day. - M .: Audit: UNITI, 1996.

choice of a solution from an infinite number of alternatives;
choice of a solution from a limited number of alternatives;
b) multivalued expectations (decisions under conditions of uncertainty).

Rice. 5. Using different models in the decision-making process 1

Analytical calculations in this case represent goals expressed in specific indicators, alternatives for achieving goals, the consequences of the impact of alternatives on goals, the actual results of the implementation of management decisions, deviations from the expected results.

In this case, calculations are made in the following sequence:

problem formulation;
development and description of alternatives;
identification of impacts.

There are a number of methods that should be used in the development and adoption of management decisions:

traditional methods- are used in conditions of certainty for the development and solution of typical situations. The basis for their application is special economic calculations, a transparent market situation. These methods are quite common, their main advantage is testing

tanneness and ease of use, and some disadvantages appear as the complexity of production processes;

economic and mathematical methods- are based on a combination of economic and mathematical methods to achieve the set goals. These are economic and statistical methods, optimization methods, methods of economic cybernetics and econometrics. They are very effective in solving problems in the field automated systems management of production processes. The main disadvantage of these methods is the complexity of their application in other areas, where many qualitative characteristics, such as social, psychological, organizational, political, cannot be expressed in quantitative parameters, which greatly narrows the scope of their application;
systematic methods- can be based on experience, logic, use different ways evaluation or brainstorming. These include heuristic methods, peer review methods, brainstorming, statistical methods, the Delphi method, etc. These methods are highly effective in conditions of uncertainty and are based on the intellectual abilities of a person in combination with the use of computers;
system-targeted methods- should be used when solving interrelated tasks. These include:

systems analysis methods:

- system decomposition, i.e. dividing the system into elements, highlighting the relationships between them and assessing each according to the degree of influence on the achievement of the final goal;
- system diagnostics, i.e. study of each fragment of the system and the system itself as a whole to identify the most sensitive areas to the impact;

program-targeted methods- are based on the fundamental meaning of the goal; based on this, an algorithm is drawn up to achieve it. As a rule, this algorithm is presented in the form of a tree of goals with the allocation of the main goal and goals of the lowest order, as well as the stages of their achievement.

The information obtained from the results of solving the tasks, problems, situations leads to various alternatives to the solution.

The alternative decision-making is based on the determination of the system of indicators for each option and the adoption on this basis of a decision with the choice of the optimal option in relation to changes in the effectiveness and efficiency of the enterprise.

An alternative solution principle is based on the use of the decision tree mechanism:

possible alternatives with access to the corresponding indicators;
the likely consequences of each alternative;
the level of likelihood of consequences.

The informational value of the decision tree method is significant, since it gives the management of the enterprise the following opportunities:

more accessible graphical representation of the problems being solved;
presentation of individual solutions in their relationship;

Saint Petersburg Institute of Management and Law

Faculty of International Management and Tourism

By discipline: Management decisions

On the topic: Decision making, implementation, analysis of the result.

Completed by the student:

Kononova Natalia Alexandrovna

Extramural

Checked by the teacher:

Saint Petersburg

Introduction ……………………………………………………………………… .. …… ..3

Development, adoption and implementation of management decisions ………………… .4

Determining the objectives of the enterprise ……………………………………. …… .4
Necessity and technique of decision making …………………… ... …… ..7

The main stages of decision-making ……………………………………………… 16

Stages of development of management decisions …………………………… ..16
Preparation for the development of management decisions ……………… ... …… 18
Development of management decisions …………………………… .. ……… 24

Decision making, implementation, analysis of the result ………………………… ...… 27

Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………… ..... 32

References ……………………………………………………………… 33

Introduction

Every day in our life we make decisions - big and small, related to business, personal and public affairs

Making the right decision in time is the main task of any manager. The wrong decision can cost the company dearly and have fatal, irreparable consequences. Therefore, it is important that the decision-making process is well known to any manager.

The management process is about continuous development and decision making. Decisions are developed in every control cycle, at all its stages and during the performance of each function. The task of making decisions, ultimately, comes down to agreeing on the goals of individual performers, coordinating their interactions. It is through the means of making and implementing decisions that the management process itself is carried out.

A decision is the result of analysis, forecasting, optimization, economic justification and selection of an alternative from a variety of options to achieve a specific goal.

The development of solutions provides for the development of the control object and the choice of regulatory influences on it in order to achieve certain technical and economic indicators.

The decision is the result of assessing the situation through information processing and acts as a product of managerial labor, and information in this case becomes the subject of labor. All decisions must be subordinated to the main goal - the implementation of the assigned tasks.

Development, adoption and implementation of management decisions.

Determining the goals of the enterprise.

The choice of a goal is one of the most crucial moments in the process of developing and making management decisions. In accordance with the chosen goal, the development strategy of the enterprise, tactics are formed, forecasts and action plans are developed, the results of decisions made and actions taken are evaluated.

In other words, the goal is the core around which management activities are formed.

"The goal is an ideal image of the desired, possible and necessary state of the controlled system."

"Target ... defines the desired state of the object."

"Goals are specific end states or desired outcomes that a group would like to achieve by working together."

Different definitions of the concept of goal could be continued. However, the above is already enough to highlight what is common in them and most adequately characterizes the goal.

The goal is the state of the object of management, which the enterprise seeks to achieve.

Indeed, the activities of the enterprise are aimed at achieving certain results that would change the state of the object of management.

This can be the creation of a new production, and the conquest of the sales market, and an increase in the profitability of an enterprise, and an increase in the bank's rating, etc.

Of course, the goals facing the enterprise, as a subject of management, largely determine the area of activity.

A federal institution has some goals, a car factory has others, a commercial bank has others, a supermarket has a fourth, a hospital has a fifth, and so on.

The formation of the system of goals of the manager is influenced, according to the fairly common terminology of modern psychology, and the games they play.

Naturally, the goals of the manager as a member of the enterprise to whom certain rights and responsibilities are delegated, certain tasks are set, certain opportunities are provided, and the goals of the manager as a person are not always completely identical.

However, the prioritization of goals depends, in turn, on the system of values and goals that the manager adheres to.

At the same time, the company assesses the effectiveness of the manager's performance of the tasks assigned to him and provides appropriate management impact.

Note that the choice of a goal, in particular a strategic one, is one of the most important management decisions made both by the enterprise as a whole and by an individual manager.

Goal definition includes:

Concentrated experience of enterprise management;

The dynamics of change in the area in which the activity is carried out;

Understanding of the main factors and mechanisms operating in it;

The value system of those who set these goals.

Indeed, both strategic and tactical goals are set by specific people - managers. There may be cases when the goals are chosen incorrectly, and this predetermines failure in activities, on which the fate and well-being of many can sometimes depend.

Only a correct understanding of the situation that is developing in the field of activity, a correctly set goal, correctly chosen ways and means of achieving it, correctly made and effectively implemented decisions lead to success.

The stage of defining the goals of the enterprise is preceded by the stages of defining the mission of the enterprise and the system of values that it adheres to.

The company's development strategy has a direct impact on the choice of goals. Their result is the determination of the priorities that / the company adheres to when developing goals that determine the desired state to which it strives. The priorities make it possible to identify the main directions of the company's activity, which it considers the most important and which it seeks to implement in the first place.

Prioritization is usually preceded by work, then the definition of a list of the most important areas of the enterprise. First, as a rule, a preliminary list of the most important areas of the enterprise's activities is formed.

The decisive role in their formation is played by the top management of the enterprise. Depending on the situation and internal organizational culture, employees, business partners, specially invited experts, potential consumers and other actors who can influence the development of its strategy or who are interested can also take part in the formation of the company's goals and, therefore, priorities. in the efficient operation and prosperity of the enterprise.

After determining the preliminary list of the most important areas of the enterprise's activities, it is recommended to conduct a collective examination, for participation in which persons are invited, on the one hand, who have the necessary professional knowledge and experience in the field of the proposed activity of the enterprise, and, on the other hand, those who directly created it and are interested in achieving it the expected results, including the achievement of certain economic results.

The priority areas of the enterprise are directly taken into account when developing the goals to achieve which the enterprise seeks. The nature of many species human activity is such that it is based on competition.

Necessity and technique of decision making.

There is often debate about how to make decisions effectively - alone or collectively. It all depends on the evaluation criteria, which include, for example: the quality of the solution; the acceptability of the decision for its addressees; the possibility of implementing the adopted decision in the event of unexpected difficulties; satisfaction with the decision; delay in decision making; the duration of the decision; experience gained in the course of developing a solution; the adequacy of the decision-making process to generally accepted norms and values.

The most difficult part of making a decision is the choice of two or more alternatives. Here, in addition to accurate calculation, experience can help.

Why did one decision lead to the expected result and the other not? Perhaps, in the latter case, one of several mistakes was made in the process of its adoption, the most common of which are the following:

a so-called unilateral decision was made;

the decision was driven by emotion;

there was no systematic approach to decision-making;

when choosing options, preference was given to "familiar"

alternative;

only positive options were considered, the possible risk was not taken into account;

when making a decision, they were guided by assumptions of latent desires and false premises, and not reliable information;

haste was admitted when making a decision;

the facts were misinterpreted;

the decision was made on impulse.

Such errors can be easily corrected if only the decision-making is approached systematically. In this case, it is better to give preference to simple rather than complex schemes (Fig. 1). If we are talking about solving a problem, then it is recommended to organize the decision-making process as follows.

Rice. 1. Decision tree

But the most important thing is the following: it is not the decision-making technique itself that is important, much more important is a systemic, goal-oriented approach, the correct consideration of factors, and not the choice of the easiest and most convenient one. It should never be forgotten that making a decision is also a responsibility.

Important qualities of decisions are: their scientific validity, clear focus and economic performance. Decisions will be justified only when, in their development, a sufficiently broad analysis of a specific production and social situation has been carried out. For this, when processing reliable information, various methods of analysis are applied using economic and mathematical methods.

Decisions must be timely, i.e. correspond to the prevailing situation at the time of their adoption.

A clear direction of decisions is ensured by their adoption within the rights of the respective leaders, while each decision must have an exact address, be understandable to the executors and not allow discrepancies.

The nature of the tasks being solved changes with an increase in the hierarchical level of organization of the management system. At the lower levels of management, tasks are rather tactical in nature. This is due to the fact that the lower levels of management are in the sphere of the object of management, they can receive detailed information on any deviations from the planned plan in a timely manner and quickly make appropriate decisions. The lower levels of management cannot solve long-term problems, since they have only short-term reserves of resources.

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Introduction

Chapter 1. Theoretical foundations of the management decision-making process

1 The essence of management decisions, their classification

2 Typology of management decisions

3 Decision-making process, principles and stages

Chapter 2 Analysis of the Management Decision Making Process

1 The process of making management decisions in LLC " Appliances»

2 Analysis of the typology of managerial decision making

In the organisation

Chapter 3. Proposals to improve the efficiency of management decisions in the activities of the enterprise

Conclusion

Introduction

Relevance of the topic. Decision making is an important part of any management activity. The effectiveness of management is largely due to the quality of such decisions. In the decisions, the whole set of relations arising in the process of labor activity and management of the organization is recorded. If communication is a kind of "core" that permeates any activity in the organization, then decision-making is the "center" around which the life of the organization revolves. Effective decision-making is essential for the fulfillment of managerial functions. Improving the process of making informed objective decisions in situations of exceptional complexity is achieved by using a scientific approach to this process, models and quantitative decision-making methods.

There are various points of view on what decisions made by a person in an organization are considered managerial. Some experts refer to such, for example, the decision to hire a person to work, the decision to dismiss from it, etc. the point of view seems to be justified, according to which only those decisions that affect relations in the organization should be referred to as managerial ones.

Management decisions are made in a wide variety of areas of human activity: political, economic, social, military, administrative, in the field of culture, education, health care and in a number of other fundamentally significant large areas. A special place in the activities of a manager, of course, belongs to decisions that relate to such areas. economic activity like manufacturing, commerce, finance, etc.

Various types of solutions, their variety and complexity of interconnections create, at first glance, a modernly boundless and vague picture. But with a careful analysis of this picture, it is possible to identify both common features and specific features inherent in certain types of decisions.

The purpose of this work is to study the organization of managerial decision-making.

To achieve the goal, a range of tasks was determined:

consider the essence of management decisions, their classification;

study the typology of management decisions;

describe the decision-making process, principles and stages;

analyze the process of making management decisions;

to develop proposals to improve the efficiency of management decisions in the activities of the enterprise.

The structure of the work consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion and a list of used literature.

management decisions efficiency

Chapter 1. Theoretical foundations of the management decision-making process

1 The essence of management decisions, their classification

A decision as a result of a choice is usually recorded in writing or orally and includes a plan (program) of actions to achieve the goal.

The decision is one of the types of mental activity and a manifestation of the will of a person.

The most important reserve for increasing the efficiency of all social production is improving the quality of decisions made by leaders.

The concept of "solution" in modern life very ambiguous. It is understood as a process, and as an act of choice, and as a result of a choice. The main reason for the ambiguous interpretation of the concept of "solution" is that each time a meaning is embedded in this concept that corresponds to a specific area of research.

The decision as a process is characterized by the fact that it proceeds in time and is carried out in several stages. In this regard, it is appropriate here to talk about the stages of preparation, adoption and implementation of decisions. The decision-making stage can be interpreted as an act of choice carried out by an individual or group decision-maker (DM) using certain rules.

A number of requirements are imposed on the management decision, which include:

Comprehensive validity of the decision;

Timeliness;

The required completeness of the content;

Empowerment;

Consistency with previous decisions.

Comprehensive validity of the decision means, first of all, the need to make it on the basis of the most complete and reliable information. However, this alone is not enough. It should cover the entire range of issues, the entire completeness of the needs of the managed system. This requires knowledge of the features, development paths of controlled, control systems and the environment. A thorough analysis of resource provision, scientific and technical capabilities, target development functions, economic and social prospects of an enterprise, region, industry, national and world economy is required. The comprehensive validity of decisions requires the search for new forms and ways of processing scientific, technical and socio-economic information, that is, the formation of advanced professional thinking, the development of its analytical and synthetic functions.

Timeliness of a managerial decision means that the decision made should neither lag behind nor outstrip the needs and tasks of the socio-economic system. A prematurely made decision does not find a prepared ground for its implementation and development and can give impulses for the development of negative trends. Delayed decisions are no less harmful to society. They do not contribute to the solution of already "overripe" problems and further exacerbate the already painful processes.

The necessary completeness of the content of solutions means that the solution must cover the entire managed object, all spheres of its activity, all directions of development. In its most general form, a management decision should cover:

Purpose (set of goals) for the functioning and development of the system;

The means and resources used to achieve these goals;

The main ways and means of achieving goals;

Timeline for achieving goals;

The order of interaction between departments and performers;

Organization of work execution at all stages of solution implementation.

An important requirement of a managerial decision is the authority (authority) of the decision - strict observance by the subject of management of those rights and powers that are given to him by the highest level of management. The balance of the rights and responsibilities of each body, each link and each level of management is a constant problem associated with the inevitable emergence of new development tasks and the lagging behind them of the regulation and regulation system.

In the process of managing organizations, a huge number of a wide variety of decisions are made with different characteristics. Nevertheless, there are some general characteristics that allow this set to be classified in a certain way.

Depending on the recurrence of the problem to be solved, all management decisions can be subdivided into traditional, which have been repeatedly encountered earlier in management practice, when it is only necessary to make a choice from the existing alternatives, and atypical, non-standard solutions, when their search is primarily associated with the generation of new alternatives. ...

Significance of the goal.

Decision-making can pursue its own, independent goal or be a means to help achieve a goal of a higher order. In accordance with this, decisions can be strategic and tactical.

Scope of influence.

The result of the decision may affect one or more parts of the organization. In this case, the solutions can be considered local. Decisions, however, can be made with the aim of influencing the work of the organization as a whole, in this case it will be global.

Duration of implementation.

The solution may take hours, days or months to complete. If a relatively short time passes between the adoption of the decision and the completion of its implementation, the decision is short-term. At the same time, the number and importance of long-term, promising decisions, the results of the implementation of which may be removed for several years, is increasing.

Most of the management decisions in the process of their implementation, one way or another, can be adjusted in order to eliminate any deviations or take into account new factors, i.e. correctable. At the same time, there are also solutions, the consequences of which are irreversible.

Depending on the degree of completeness and reliability of the information available to the manager, management decisions can be deterministic (made in conditions of certainty) or probabilistic (made in conditions of risk or uncertainty). These decisions play an extremely important role in decision making. Deterministic decisions are made in conditions of certainty, when the manager has almost complete and reliable information regarding the problem being solved, this allows him to know exactly the results of each of the alternative choices. There is only one such result, and the probability of its occurrence is close to one. However, few decisions are made in conditions of certainty. Most management decisions are probabilistic.

Decisions made under conditions of risk or uncertainty are called probabilistic. Decisions made in the face of risk include those whose outcomes are uncertain, but the probability of each outcome is known. Probability is defined as the degree of possibility of the occurrence of a given event and varies from zero to one. The sum of the probabilities of all alternatives must be equal to one. The probability can be determined by mathematical methods based on statistical analysis of experimental data. The probability calculated on the basis of information that makes it possible to make a statistically reliable prediction is called objective.

In some cases, however, the organization does not have sufficient information to objectively assess the likelihood of possible events. In such situations, leaders are helped by experience that shows what is most likely to happen. In these cases, the estimate of the likelihood is subjective.

A decision is made in conditions of uncertainty, when, due to a lack of information, it is impossible to quantify the likelihood of its possible outcomes. This is quite common when solving new, atypical problems, when the factors that need to be taken into account are so new and or complex that it is impossible to get enough information about them. Uncertainty is also characteristic of some decisions that have to be made in rapidly changing situations. As a result, the likelihood of a particular alternative cannot be estimated with a sufficient degree of certainty.

When faced with uncertainty, the manager can use two main possibilities:

a) try to obtain additional information and once again analyze the problem in order to reduce its novelty and complexity. Combined with experience and intuition, this enables him to assess the subjective, perceived likelihood of possible outcomes;

b) when there is not enough time and / or funds to collect additional information, when making a decision, you have to rely on past experience and intuition.

Solution development method.

At the same time, in the process of managing organizations, new, atypical situations and non-standard problems are often encountered that do not lend themselves to formalized solutions. In such cases, the intellectual abilities, talent and personal initiative of the manager play an important role.

In practice, most decisions occupy an intermediate position between these two extreme points, allowing both the manifestation of personal initiative and the application of a formal procedure in the process of their development.

If the choice of the best alternative is made according to only one criterion, then the decision made will be simple, one-criterion. Conversely, when the chosen alternative must satisfy several criteria at the same time, the decision will be complex, multi-criteria.

Acceptance form.

The person making the choice from the available alternatives of the final decision can be one person and his decision will be solely accordingly. However, in modern management practice, more and more often complex situations and problems are encountered, the solution of which requires a comprehensive, complex analysis, i.e. participation of a group of managers and specialists. Such group or collective decisions are called collegial decisions. Strengthening professionalization and deepening the specialization of management lead to widespread collegial forms of decision-making. It should also be borne in mind that certain decisions are legally assigned to the group of collegial ones.

So, for example, certain decisions in a joint-stock company (on the payment of dividends, distribution of profits and losses, major transactions, etc.) are attributed to the exclusive competence of the general meeting of shareholders. The collegial form of decision-making reduces the efficiency of management and "dilutes" responsibility for its results, however, it prevents gross mistakes, abuse and increases the validity of the choice.

Method of fixing the solution.

On this basis, management decisions can be subdivided into fixed, or documented (i.e., drawn up in the form of any document - order, order, letter, etc.) and undocumented (not having a documentary form, oral). Most decisions in the management apparatus are documented, however, minor, insignificant decisions, as well as decisions made in emergency, acute, urgent situations, may not be documented.

Thus, the decision is one of the types of mental activity and a manifestation of the will of a person. The managerial decision should cover the goal (set of goals) of the functioning and development of the system, the means and resources used to achieve these goals, the main ways and means of achieving the goals, the timing of achieving the goals, the procedure for interaction between departments and executors, the organization of work at all stages of the solution implementation ... Management decisions are classified according to a number of characteristics:

Repeatability of the problem.

Significance of the goal.

Scope of influence.

Duration of implementation.

Predicted consequences of the decision.

The nature of the information used.

Solution development method.

The number of selection criteria.

Acceptance form.

Method of fixing the solution.

2 Typology of management decisions

Management decisions are characterized by high complexity and an extremely wide variety of types. They say that a solution belongs to a certain type if it has some common feature characteristic of a certain set of solutions. Among the main features that are used to build a typology of decisions, there are such as the degree of development, the degree of justification, the possibility of implementation and the degree of achievement of the goal of the management decision. The main types of decisions on the indicated grounds and their brief characteristics are given in table. 1.1.

Depending on the presence or absence of standard techniques for the development and adoption of management decisions, programmed and non-programmed decisions are distinguished.

Table 1.1

The main types of decisions on the indicated grounds and their brief description

Solution type	A brief description of
Pre-programmed solutions	Accepted using standard procedures and rules
Unprogrammed solutions	Require the development of new procedures or decision rules
Intuitive solutions	Based on the person's feelings and sensation that these decisions are correct
Logical solutions	Accepted on the basis of knowledge, experience and logical judgment
Rational solutions	Accepted on the basis of an objective analysis of problem situations using scientific methods and computer technology
Acceptable solutions	Satisfy all objective constraints and can be implemented in practice
Inadmissible solutions	Unrealistic solutions that do not meet one or more constraints
Unreasonable decisions	Decisions that do not lead to the achievement of the management goal
Satisfactory solutions	Decisions leading to the achievement of the management goal
Optimal solutions	Solutions that maximize the achievement of the goal of managing the organization

Programmed decisions are made as a result of a certain sequence of steps according to standard techniques or rules that are developed in advance and applied in typical (usually repetitive) situations. In other words, solutions are "programmed" for typical situations that may arise in the activities of the organization. The use of certain decision-making techniques in typical situations reduces the likelihood of errors and increases the efficiency of decision-making, since it eliminates the need to develop new methods whenever a corresponding situation arises. Therefore, programmed solutions are considered to be the most developed.

It is very important that leaders of organizations are confident that they are using the truly correct methodologies, which must not only be carefully justified, but also constantly evolve. If outdated methods are used to make decisions in changed conditions, this can lead to undesirable or even catastrophic consequences. Therefore, the procedures for making management decisions should be continuously improved and updated, taking into account the emergence of new factors and covering new possible situations. In addition, it is highly desirable to justify the methodology for making any programmed decisions and to convince those people for whom it is intended of its correctness, and not just offer or impose it for use.

By the degree of justification, intuitive, logical and rational decisions can be distinguished. Reasonableness characterizes the way a decision is made and, as a rule, predetermines the quality of this decision. In this regard, it should be noted that it is always easy to make a decision. To do this, you just need to make a choice, i.e. indicate one of the possible alternatives. But the point is, it's hard to make a good decision. To do this, it is necessary not only to make a choice, but also to justify it for yourself and other people, on whom the implementation of the decision depends. To make good decisions, we need to be able to justify them.

Significant advantages of intuitive and logical decisions are the efficiency and "cheapness" of their adoption. But these solutions "work" most effectively only in relatively familiar situations. However, real situations often only seem familiar and simple, but in fact they are distorted by many factors that are at first glance invisible. At the same time, one should always remember about the mistakes of human perception. Situations that seem simple may well turn out to be extremely difficult. If the problem situation is truly unique and complex, then logical judgments or intuition may not be enough to make a quality decision. "The judgment cannot be correlated with a situation that is really new, since the leader lacks the experience on which he could base logical choices." In a new situation, there are too many unexplored factors that need to be taken into account, and the “unarmed” human mind is usually not able to determine and compare them. In addition, by making decisions based only on judgments, people may be "held captive" by their own experience, which will dictate their usual ways of acting. As a result, the manager may lose sight of a new, more effective solution. In addition, through lessons learned, leaders may consciously or unconsciously resist new ideas that are required in changing conditions. Therefore, in new or unique situations, the likelihood of success increases when leaders make rational decisions.

Rational decisions, unlike logical ones, do not depend on past experience. They are based on an objective analysis of complex problem situations using scientific methods and computer technology. In this case, the term "rational" characterizes, first of all, the way of developing a solution, and not its quality. Rational decisions are made through a multi-step analytical process, but they can also be wrong. At the same time, rational choice does not exclude the use of logic and intuition, which are always actively involved in the decision-making process. Therefore, rational decisions are considered the most reasonable, since in the process of their development and adoption, all mechanisms available to a person are used - intuition, logic and calculation.

All management decisions must be implemented in the activities of the organization. Therefore, any solution, first of all, must admit the very possibility of practical implementation. On this basis, there are two types of solutions - permissible and unacceptable.

Valid solutions are solutions that satisfy all constraints and can be implemented in practice. Any decisions are always made in conditions of objective constraints - resource, time, legal, organizational, ethical, etc. It is within the limits of the given restrictions that the area of admissible options for actions is formed, i.e. many alternatives presented for choice. So that in the future there are no difficulties with the implementation of management decisions, it is necessary to foresee in advance the influence of all factors of the external and internal environment of the organization, acting as restrictions. Constraint analysis is one of the most important steps in decision making. If this is not done or some limitations are overlooked, then an unacceptable decision can be made that cannot be implemented and therefore has no practical value.

There can be no “little things” in the analysis of constraints. A managerial decision, being a product of a manager's intellectual work, acts not as an end in itself, but as a means for organizing subsequent actions. Therefore, already in the very process of searching for a managerial decision, it is necessary to take into account the possibility of its implementation and take into account all the factors that may hinder or, conversely, contribute to the successful implementation of the decision.

According to the degree of achievement of the management goal, one can single out unreasonable, satisfactory and optimal decisions. The admissibility or realism of the decision made does not mean that it is reasonable. The solution may be perfectly acceptable under the constraints, but not lead to the desired results. We will call such decisions unreasonable. Since unacceptable solutions also do not lead us to the set goal (they cannot be realized at all), the following definition can be given.

Unreasonable decisions are unacceptable decisions or decisions that do not lead to the achievement of a management goal.

Any decision makes sense only when it is not only realizable, but also allows you to achieve the desired results. Therefore, all management decisions should be evaluated from the point of view of achieving the management goal, which is set by the head of the organization and acts as an additional, subjective constraint that determines a reasonable choice. Consequently, the objective constraints and goals of management are a kind of filter that cleans the multitude of all conceivable and inconceivable alternatives from unreasonable decisions.

The options for action that lead to the achievement of the goal of managing the organization should be recognized as satisfactory solutions. In other words, these solutions satisfy all objective and subjective constraints at the same time and provide an acceptable, but not necessarily the best result. It must be remembered that optimal solutions are not the best in an absolute sense, but only in relation to a specific management goal that is chosen by a person. Optimal solutions are managerial decisions that maximize the achievement of the management goal. In other words, these are the best trade-offs found through careful analysis and comparison of all alternatives. It is well known that any managerial decision, in addition to having a beneficial effect, also has negative consequences. Finding a reasonable or the best compromise between them is the essence of the decision-making process.

From the point of view of innovation, routine, selective, adaptive and innovative solutions are considered.

Routine solutions are well-known ways of doing things to resolve a problem. They represent only a standard reaction to a typical situation and, in essence, are not solutions. In contrast, selective decisions involve the selection of one alternative from a certain set of courses of action. In this case, it is assumed that the set of alternatives is given and is well known to the decision-maker. All he needs to do is choose one of them.

Adaptive decisions are made in conditions when the situation changes and therefore some modification of the known options is required, taking into account the peculiarities of the new situation. The most difficult are innovative solutions that are made in conditions when the problem cannot be solved using known methods of action or their modifications and requires the development of fundamentally new solutions that have not been used previously.

According to the scale of changes made to the organization, management decisions can be divided into situational and reorganization. Situational solutions do not provide for any global changes and are associated with solving the current problems of the organization. In contrast, reorganization decisions involve significant changes, such as restructuring the organizational structure or choosing new strategy organizations.

By the time of action, strategic, tactical and operational decisions are distinguished. Strategic decisions are aimed at achieving the long-term goals of the organization. Tactical decisions ensure the implementation of strategic and pursue the achievement of medium-term goals of the organization. Operational decisions are made by managers on a daily basis to achieve short-term goals and current work in the organization.

The listed types by far do not exhaust the whole variety of management decisions. In fact, it is practically impossible to attribute this or that solution to one of the indicated "pure" types. In reality, all decisions made in organizations are combined, i.e. are within a certain range or continuum located between the "extreme" types of solutions. For example, only a few management decisions turn out to be programmed or unprogrammed in their pure form. Any programmed decision does not completely exclude the personal initiative of the leader, who may deviate from the standard methodology if he deems it necessary. On the other hand, even in the most difficult situations that arise for the first time, the standard techniques and rules of choice previously applied can be useful.

3 Decision-making process, principles and stages

Sooner or later, leaders must move from analyzing events to action. Ideally, if the action is motivated by the correct analysis of the problem, the search for causes is narrowed to the point where you can confidently begin solving the problem. It is important, however, to remember that all actions are motivated by the need to respond to the problem that has arisen. Experienced managers continually take action to improve the situation, increase job demands, and prevent problems that could threaten to disrupt performance. current plans.

Being in the present tense, the leader chooses actions (alternatives) that can often be realized in the future. The problem is that sometimes it is even necessary to compare the relative effects of alternatives without good evidence. It is impossible to know exactly what will happen when choosing another alternative. The manager must consider alternatives, confidently take a stand, and declare that, say, alternative A will better meet the stated objectives than alternative B or C. However, this is a difficult process of moving towards the truth.

The existing uncertainty in the decision-making process can create a number of situations in which the confusion of the concepts of "decisiveness" and "decision-making" is not excluded. In many businesses, managers are evaluated and rewarded for how quickly and confidently they make decisions. Uncertainty in this case is seen as a sign of weakness. Managers are expected to be quick and decisive in judgment, and are highly regarded for their willingness to implement decisions in spite of difficulties. This is theoretically correct, but in practice it is not always the best course of action.

In management theory, decisiveness is seen as the ability to make a decision and turn it into life. And decision making is the ability to analyze the most important information and make optimal choice... It is important to combine both of these abilities correctly. Paralyzing yourself with endless analysis is just as undesirable as making decisions on a whim, spontaneously.

The first principle is the principle of organizational fit. The form of the organization should be adapted to the smooth implementation of communications, which facilitates both the decision-making process and the control over their implementation. One cannot but take into account the fact that powers and responsibility are increasingly passing "from hand to hand." Only by holding managers accountable for the results of their decisions can the best leadership be prepared.

Principle two: policies, strategies and goals must be clearly articulated to enable general decisions to be made about new activities that go beyond today's needs.

The third principle requires a sufficient amount of reliable data about the changing environment to maintain effective communication between senior managers and lower levels of the functioning parts of the organization. It is extremely important to select the data available so that senior managers have only the facts they really need at their disposal and are not overwhelmed with irrelevant factual material.

The fourth principle provides flexibility, without which countless possibilities can go unused. Under ideal conditions (precise criteria, clear goals, and complete information), there would be little need for decision-makers. A computer could answer any question.

By their nature, the listed principles are universal and must be adhered to in management and business.

Leaders usually make decisions that involve commitments and the need to implement them. Once a decision is made, it is difficult to change it. The procedure for analyzing alternatives in decision making is different from that for causal analysis.

The decision itself can take a number of forms and represent: a standard solution, in the adoption of which there is a fixed set of alternatives; binary solution (yes or no); multivariate solution (there is a very wide range of alternatives); an innovative solution when action is required but there are no viable alternatives.

The most common type of solution is the standard solution. The analytical steps required to make it apply to all other types of decisions as well. When making any type of decision, the manager's experience is included from the first step and is used throughout this process. If in causal analysis it is necessary to be wary of managers' favorite reasons, then in decision making it is possible to become a victim of favorite alternatives. In this case, the preference for the “favorite option” can distort the whole analysis and lead to a pre-known choice.

As a rule, for the successful implementation of the managerial decision-making process, a leader needs to go through eight main stages.

At the first stage, the main task is to correctly formulate the goal of the solution. Any decision-making process must begin with an awareness of the need to make it. It is important, first of all, to ask the question about the very choice to be made. Such questions contribute to the fulfillment of three tasks: to show the connection between a decision and the need to make a choice; give direction in the search for alternatives; exclude alternatives that lie outside the set goal.

In an effort to ensure the correctness of the goal of the decision, the manager must answer the following questions:

What choice am I trying to make? This question provides a starting point. It will be clarified by the next two questions.

Why is this decision necessary?

What was the last decision? This question stems from the concept that all solutions form some kind of chain. Therefore, it is very important to find a place this decision in it. For example, suppose the purpose of the decision is to select a training program to implement activities to improve working conditions. Before setting such a goal, it is necessary to answer the question: "Are we sure that improving working conditions will solve the problem of improving the moral climate in the team?" If so, a new question arises: "Are we convinced that a training program is required?" Only by answering these questions can we move on, based on the fact that previous decisions were obtained as a result of serious analysis.

The second stage is associated with the establishment of decision criteria. Since decisions are judged primarily by the results obtained, it is reasonable to start the selection process with their consideration. These results are referred to as "decision criteria" and represent the basis for the actual choice made. It is important for leaders to be clear about what they want to achieve. The key question in this case is: "What factors should be considered when making a choice?" This question gives rise to a number of factors that must be taken into account when choosing a solution. In a situation of group decision-making, the formulation of such a question assumes that the persons whose activities should be influenced by this decision will have the opportunity to express their assumptions and requirements.

At the third stage, the manager separates the criteria according to the principle of their importance to the organization. The criteria have different meanings. For example, some criteria are mandatory constraints, while others simply capture desirable characteristics. to make a sufficiently effective decision, the criteria should be divided into hard limits and desirable characteristics, which could be dispensed with. It is then important to rank the criteria that are categorized as desirable. In making managerial decisions, of course, compromises are inevitable. For example, would you prefer faster delivery over low price? Are you willing to sacrifice the speed of repairs for the best quality of service?

At the fourth stage, the development of alternatives is carried out. When discussing standard solutions, this is not a problem. For example, when comparing different places the location of the new food point. When considering other types of solutions, especially innovative ones, this step is more difficult.

The fifth stage is allocated to compare the alternatives developed at the previous stage. Skilled decision making requires the development of a number of alternatives, comparing them and choosing the best one. Sometimes all of the solutions look good and none seems to be advantageous. Therefore, in order to make a choice, the manager needs certain means to compare alternatives.

Without sufficient data on alternatives, their relative merits can hardly be compared. The information collected will help to measure the degree of satisfaction of the requirements for each of the criteria. Collecting data is a planned process, not an arbitrary reaction to information as it emerges. After the manager clearly identifies the alternatives, the first question may come to the fore: "How to systematize and compare the data?" Here it is necessary to adhere to the following fundamental principle: "Always compare solutions to criteria, never compare one solution to another. It is important to avoid" decision blinding ", an ailment that afflicts those leaders who constantly compare alternatives with each other and eventually lose sight of goals and end results of decision-making.

At the same stage of the search for effective solutions, another ailment may occur - analytical "paralysis". It arises when the collection of information about alternatives becomes an end in itself. Decision making is, after all, the process of finding the best option based on the best available information. Meanwhile, it is hardly possible to achieve such a situation that all the facts, data, and the necessary materials for making decisions are available. The process of matching alternatives against criteria is an attempt to help the decision maker focus on key sources of information. Both of these "ailments" of decision-making can be "cured" by focusing primarily on criteria rather than alternatives.

The criterion for assessing the consequences of various options is usually determined by the goal of the decisions. However, there is a need to measure the extent to which a particular event contributes to the achievement of a goal. To resolve conflicts, you need a common measure of consequences. Without it, it is impossible, for example, to compare an alternative that minimizes the cost of transporting goods with an alternative that minimizes delivery time. To compare the effects of these alternatives, they need to be of the same class. How to translate measurements on one scale (shipping costs), into consequences on a different scale (delivery time), or measure both on a third scale? In addition, we need to know how to relate the gains across different scales.

With regard to economics, we can say that, unfortunately, it is impossible to express all the consequences in the form of their influence on costs and profits, therefore, using money as a universal unit of measurement can be difficult.

At the sixth stage, the risk that the firm may be exposed to if a particular alternative is selected is determined. In business, risk identification can range from complex plausible analysis in operations research models to purely intuitive guesses, which can be represented by questions like, “What do you think they (buyers or competing manufacturers) will do when we announce price increases? " we are interested in a working tool for managers that can be used quickly and efficiently and that does not require a complex mathematical apparatus.

To correctly identify the area of risk, one should consider alternatives one at a time and try to predict the difficulties that may be encountered if each of them is implemented. The deviations associated with the adoption of one alternative, as a rule, have nothing to do with the possible deviations in the case of the implementation of other alternatives.

In the seventh stage, the solution developer makes a risk assessment. Being aware of the existence of a risk is important, but not enough. It is necessary to determine its significance. The risk assessment takes into account factors such as probability and severity. With the help of the probability factor, a judgment is formed that this or that event will actually occur. The severity factor allows you to form a judgment about the degree of influence of the event on the situation, if it occurs.

At the eighth stage, a decision is made. Quantitative indicators of the degree of risk help to make an informed decision. After all, these data make it possible to compare the performance indicators of alternatives. It should be noted that the indicators of the degree of risk are not directly related to each other, as long as there is no such formula that would allow them to be compared. Usually, managers do not seek to minimize risk, but take risks that are acceptable and controllable. When making a choice, the leader analyzes, weighs a number of judgments. It is very important to sort these judgments clearly. After all, the decision that needs to be made is based on a certain amount of value judgments.

Thus, decision making is the ability to analyze the most important information and make the best choice. The decision-making process for managing a firm is based on four main principles:

As a rule, for the successful implementation of the managerial decision-making process, a leader needs to go through eight main stages: correct setting decision goals, setting decision criteria, dividing criteria according to their importance to the organization, developing alternatives, comparing developed alternatives, determining risk, assessing risk, making a decision.

Chapter 2 Analysis of the Management Decision Making Process

1 The process of making managerial decisions in LLC "Bytovaya Tekhnika"

Solving managerial problems in Bytovaya Tekhnika LLC, like management, is a process, because we are talking about an endless sequence of interrelated steps. The head of Bytovaya Tekhnika LLC cares not so much about the decision as such, but about everything connected and arising from it. Solving a problem requires not a single solution, but a set of choices. Therefore, although we present the problem-solving process as a five-stage process (plus implementation and feedback), the actual number of stages is determined by the problem itself (Fig. 2.1.).

Rice. 2.1 Stages of the management decision-making process

in LLC "Bytovaya Tekhnika"

Diagnosing the problem.

The first step towards solving a problem is a definition or diagnosis, complete and correct. There are two ways to look at the problem. According to one, a problem is a situation when the set goals are not achieved. In other words, you learn about the problem because what should have happened does not happen. In doing so, you smooth out deviations from the norm.

To identify the causes of the problem, it is necessary to collect and analyze the required internal and external (in relation to organic matter) information. Information can also be collected informally, conducting conversations with employees of LLC "Bytovaya Tekhnika" about the current situation and making personal observations. For example, a foreman can discuss a productivity problem with workers and pass the information up to the top.

2. Formulation of limitations and criteria for decision making.

When the head of any department of LLC Bytovaya Tekhnika diagnoses a problem in order to make a decision, he must be aware of what exactly can be done with it. Many possible solutions to the problems of the organization of LLC Bytovaya Tekhnika will not be realistic, since either the manager or the organization does not have enough resources to implement the decisions made. In addition, forces outside the organization, such as laws that the leader has no power to change, can be at the root of the problem.

Restrictions vary and depend on the situation and specific heads of departments of LLC Bytovaya Tekhnika. Some common limitations are inadequacy of funds; insufficient number of employees with the required qualifications and experience; inability to purchase resources at affordable prices; the need for technology not yet developed or too expensive; extremely intense competition; laws and ethical considerations.

A significant limitation of all management decisions in LLC Bytovaya Tekhnika is the narrowing of the powers of all members of the organization determined by the top management, that is, the manager can make or implement a decision only if the top management has endowed him with this right.

Identification of alternatives.

The next step is to formulate a set of alternative solutions to the problem. Ideally, it is desirable to identify all possible actions that could eliminate the causes of the problem and thereby enable the organization to achieve its goals. However, in practice, the manager of LLC Bytovaya Tekhnika rarely has sufficient knowledge or time to formulate and evaluate each alternative due to constant business trips. Moreover, considering a very large number of alternatives, even if they are all realistic, often leads to confusion. Therefore, the head of LLC Bytovaya Tekhnika, as a rule, limits the number of options for serious consideration to only a few alternatives that seem to be the most desirable.

Assessment of alternatives.

When identifying possible alternatives, some preliminary assessment is required. Research has shown that both the quantity and quality of alternative ideas increase when the initial generation of ideas (identification of alternatives) is separated from the evaluation of the final idea.

This means that only after compiling a list of all ideas, one should proceed to evaluate each alternative. When assessing solutions, the head of LLC Bytovaya Tekhnika determines the advantages and disadvantages of each of them and the possible general consequences.

When assessing possible solutions, the head of LLC Bytovaya Tekhnika tries to predict what will happen in the future. The future is always uncertain. Many factors, including a change in the external environment of LLC Bytovaya Tekhnika and the impossibility of implementing a solution, can interfere with the implementation of what was planned. Therefore, an important point in the assessment is to determine the likelihood of the implementation of each possible solution in accordance with the intentions. If the consequences of a decision are favorable, but the chance of its implementation is low, it may be a less desirable choice. The manager includes probability in the estimate, taking into account the degree of uncertainty or risk.

Choosing an alternative.

If the problem has been correctly identified, and alternative solutions are carefully weighed and evaluated, making a choice, that is, making a decision, is relatively easy. The head of LLC Bytovaya Tekhnika simply chooses the alternative with the most favorable overall consequences. However, if the problem is complex and many trade-offs have to be taken into account, or if the information and analysis are subjective, it may happen that no one alternative is the best choice. In this case, good judgment and experience play a major role.

The real value of a solution becomes apparent only after its implementation. As shown in Figure 2.2, the process of solving a problem does not end with choosing an alternative. Simple choice of course of action is of little value to the organization. To resolve a problem or capitalize on an existing opportunity, a solution must be implemented. The level of effectiveness of the implementation of a decision will increase if it is recognized by those affected by it. Recognition of a decision is rare, but automatic, even if it is clearly good.

Rice. 2.2. Solution Implementation and Evaluation: The phases following the decision and related to problem resolution

Sometimes the head of LLC Bytovaya Tekhnika can entrust decision-making to those who will have to execute it.

There are situations in LLC Bytovaya Tekhnika, when the manager is forced to make a decision without consulting others. Employee participation in decision-making, like any other management method, will not be effective in every situation.

Another phase entering the management decision-making process at Bytovaya Tekhnika LLC and starting after the decision has taken effect is the establishment of feedback. A tracking and control system is needed to ensure that actual results are consistent with those expected at the time of the decision. This phase measures and evaluates the consequences of a decision or compares actual results with those that the manager hoped to get. Feedback, i.e. the receipt of data about what happened before and after the implementation of the decision allows the leader to adjust it while the organization has not yet suffered significant damage. The assessment of the decision by the management of LLC Bytovaya Tekhnika is carried out primarily with the help of the control function.

Thus, LLC Bytovaya Tekhnika is a dynamically developing enterprise. The process of preparation and decision-making takes place in stages.

Existing problems in the decision-making process at LLC Bytovaya Tekhnika:

Lack of resources for the organization to implement the decisions;

Insufficient number of employees with the required qualifications and experience, in particular sales managers;

The manager of LLC Bytovaya Tekhnika is often forced to make a decision without consulting other personnel in the organization.

2 Analysis of the typology of making managerial decisions in the organization

Management decision making is based on certain documentation. The decision-making process is reflected in all aspects of management.

An analysis of the typology of management decisions is shown in Table 2.3.

Table 2.3

Analysis of the typology of management decisions

Assessment of the quality of decision making

Explanations

Director

Chief Accountant

CFO

Commercial Director

Attempts to be creative, limited by the power of the director

Head of HR department (clerk)

The solutions are template, based on the instructions of the CEO

Division directors

The solutions are templated, do not consider other alternatives and possibilities

So, as can be seen from the process of making managerial decisions, decision-makers partially show attempts at a creative approach, but basically the whole process is implemented on the implementation of a specific decision posed director general... The decision-making leadership process in Bytovaya Tekhnika LLC is authoritarian. The adoption of managerial decisions strongly depends on the personal factor, since in essence decisions in the company "Bytovaya Tekhnika" are made by only one person, the General Director.

The analysis of the types of decision-making by the general director for three years 2011-2013 has been carried out.

Table 2.4

Typology by the degree of participation of managers of different levels and specialists for three years 2011-2013.

Typology according to the degree of participation of managers of different levels and specialists
collegial	Opening of new credit programs	Development of a new structure of the marketing department with the management of new positions, implementation new system wages	Expansion of the sales department, control of financial expenses, development strategic plan
collective	Development of a bonus program for employees	The introduction of new programs materially and moral incentives	Organizing collective events and issuing a corporate newspaper
individual		Orders definition personnel policy,	Orders (for example, about appointment to positions, dismissals, etc.)

So, we see that in 2011-2013. collegial decisions were made (expert and by agreement); collective (democratic) and individual (individual).

Table 2.4

Typology by levels of planning and time of implementation of activities for 2011-2013.

Typology by levels of planning and timing of activities
strategic	Development of a strategic plan for entering new regional markets	expansion of activities (conclusion of contracts with new suppliers and brands)	changing the assortment policy (increasing the assortment of office equipment)
tactical		Optimization of team work, Development and implementation of a system of discounts and benefits for large customers
operational	Repair of the office equipment section	replacement of cash register equipment	Repair and expansion of the store warehouse

So, we see that in 2011-2013. strategic, tactical and operational measures were adopted.

Table 2.5

Typology on the content of the management process for 2011-2013.

Typology of the content of the management process
social	Development of a bonus program for employees, Modernize the rest room	Development of a code for an employee of LLC "Bytovaya Tekhnika"	issuance of a corporate newspaper, based on the results of work, bonus vouchers to a sanatorium	Reducing costs due to the sale of defective and spoiled goods at a discount	Introduction of new incentive programs	Reduction of staff units of loaders
organizational	General meeting of employees, Selection of heads of sales teams	General meeting of employees, redistribution of powers, in order to avoid duplication of functions	General meeting of employees, update job descriptions some staff units
technical	Replacing the shelving under the kitchen utensils	Updating the software	Replacement of uniforms of employees

So, management decisions are different in content, time parameters, levels of planning, but they are all an integral part of the management process. The effect of their implementation directly depends on the manager's ability to predict the situation, foresee the consequences of the decisions made, the ability to use not only his own potential, but above all the capabilities of the group and the team as a whole.

Chapter 3. Proposals to improve the efficiency of management decisions in the activities of the enterprise

Previously successfully applied planning and management procedures become ineffective. The lack of a rational, goal-directed policy leads to economic losses, to a decrease in the pace of the scientific and technological process.

There are two reasons that prevent the use of more advanced methods and the procedure for making decisions. The first of them is associated with the traditional attitudes of employees of the administrative apparatus, attachment to the usual forms of preparation of solutions. The second - with the imperfection of the style and methods of work of consultants, with insufficient consideration of human factors.

Today, decision-makers and analyst consultants face complex challenges. Many real processes running in the administrative apparatus are much more complicated than those for which analytical approaches have already been developed. There are, for example, cases where the interests of different parts of an organization or different organizations do not coincide. This is not always a bad thing - it is in the conflict that a compromise solution is worked out, taking into account many real limitations. Often times, decisions are made by a management team. This raises the problem of coordinating the policy of influential members of this collective, agreeing on opposing interests.

The listed problems are extremely complex from a methodological point of view. In my opinion, at the present time there are no practical constructive methods of making group decisions or decisions in conditions of opposition with many active participants. Far from satisfactory solution, many relatively simpler problems of making individual decisions.

As can be seen from the previous example, many decisions are made with the participation of senior management or in agreement with him, which slows down the implementation of these decisions (it is widely used in Japan). Therefore, it is necessary to empower leaders structural units on making managerial decisions, that is, to delegate appropriate powers to them (widely used in the USA).

In order to avoid unfair or mercenary adoption and execution of managerial decisions, it is necessary to strengthen control and responsibility for violations. At the same time, it is also proposed to distinguish between the management decisions taken both by levels and by functional responsibilities.

In addition, the enterprise has a poorly developed assessment of the effectiveness of decisions made. It is rather formal in nature and does not have widespread practical application.

Therefore, it is necessary to ensure the development of criteria by which the effectiveness of making a particular managerial decision will be assessed.

For example, such criteria can be: growth of technical and economic indicators; improving product quality; saving labor and material resources; facilitating the work of staff; increasing interest in work; reduction of injuries; improving the climate in the team. That is, depending on the type of management decision taken, certain criteria will be applied to it.

The main flaw in management is not a bad decision, but a lack of a decision. The following reasons for poor-quality decisions can be distinguished: a significant amount of decisions made, which does not allow each of them to be carefully developed and justified; inconsistency of newly adopted decisions with previously adopted ones, which causes duplication, mismatch of actions and conflict; making "vague" decisions that do not have specific content, reflecting only the general directive: to pay attention, increase, take the necessary measures (such decisions in management practice are up to 10%); insufficient information support, the consequence of which is the development of weak solutions, the implementation of which will not remove the essence of a particular problem.

Subjects making management decisions should be guided by the main organizational prerequisites that can help improve the quality of decisions, thereby contributing to improving the effectiveness of management as a whole.

To ensure an efficient design and decision-making process, the following guidelines are offered:

‾ people prefer not to take responsibility voluntarily, and this should not be expected of them;

‾ Do not let the approval processes take their course at all stages, including meetings and sessions;

‾ you cannot rely on memory in everything, it is recommended to record a lot in a notebook or other material media;

‾ it is necessary to master and replenish knowledge on the theory of development of management decisions.

An important problem is the low motivation of executive decision makers. To resolve this issue, it is currently recommended to promptly communicate decisions to the performers in order to prevent the loss of its relevance by the adopted management decision; increase motivation by expanding the involvement of the population of territories, cities and regions in the development of concepts, paradigms, key provisions, strategies, and not only by coordinating the formed decisions with him; to form public opinion on problems through the media, hold conferences, seminars, symposia; create a staffing system for the implementation of solutions; organize control over the implementation of the decision, which will allow the city and district authorities to make the necessary adjustments in a timely manner. The decision cannot be correct at all times, since any socio-economic system moves in time and space, the situation inside it changes. In a new situation, other problems arise, the strategic course is adjusted, and a new decision is made. This is how the next management cycle begins. Therefore, it is necessary to strive for flexibility in management and management decision-making.

The efficiency of management decisions is significantly influenced by information support, which should be comprehensive and cover the entire decision-making process.

The planning system also plays an important role. The extension of this process to all levels of management guarantees the transparency of the activities of departments, allows you to establish the characteristics of the effectiveness of work. The plans should form the basis for operational meetings, assessments of the activities of departments and their leaders, analysis of the volume of functions performed, the effectiveness of the use of budget funds, etc.

Therefore, it is necessary to increase the efficiency of management decisions, which is the main prerequisite for rational management.

Conclusion

In the course of writing a term paper on the theoretical part, the following conclusions were made:

The decision is one of the types of mental activity and a manifestation of the will of a person.

The managerial decision should cover the goal (set of goals) of the functioning and development of the system, the means and resources used to achieve these goals, the main ways and means of achieving the goals, the timing of achieving the goals, the procedure for interaction between departments and executors, the organization of work at all stages of the solution implementation ...

Management decisions are classified according to a number of characteristics:

Repeatability of the problem.

Significance of the goal.

Scope of influence.

Duration of implementation.

Predicted consequences of the decision.

The nature of the information used.

Solution development method.

The number of selection criteria.

Acceptance form.

Method of fixing the solution.

Decision making is the ability to analyze critical information and make the best choices.

The decision-making process for managing a firm is based on four main principles:

Organizational Compliance Principle, Policy;

The strategy and goals should be clearly articulated;

Sufficient amount of reliable data on the changing environment;

Flexibility without which countless possibilities can go untapped.

As a rule, for the successful implementation of the managerial decision-making process, a manager needs to go through eight of its main stages: the correct setting of the decision goal, the establishment of decision criteria, the separation of criteria according to the principle of their importance for the organization, the development of alternatives, the comparison of the developed alternatives, the determination of risk, the risk assessment, the adoption solutions.

So, the options for management decisions should be brought into a comparable form for the following factors:

Time factor (time of project implementation or investment);

the quality factor of the object;

factor of the scale (volume) of production of the object;

factor of development of the object in production;

method of obtaining information for making management decisions;

conditions of use (operation) of the facility;

inflation factor;

risk factor and uncertainty.

The comparability of options for the listed eight factors is ensured, as a rule, when justifying technical, organizational or economic measures aimed at improving the particular indicators of the target subsystem of the management system (indicators of quality and resource intensity of products, organizational and technical level of production, the level of social development of the team, environmental problems) , as well as the development of supporting, controlled or controlling subsystems, improving connections with the external environment of the system.

In each specific case, the options for management decisions may not differ for all factors. The task of a specialist, manager or decision-maker is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of specific situations in order to ensure comparability in terms of the maximum number of factors. The fewer factors taken into account, the lower the accuracy of the investment efficiency forecast.

Basic rules for ensuring the comparability of management decision options:

The number of alternative options must be at least three;

the most recent version of the decision should be made as a basic version of the decision. The rest of the alternatives are brought to the baseline using correction factors;

to reduce time, improve the quality of the solution and reduce costs, it is recommended to use more coding methods and modern technical means of information support for the decision-making process.

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