Prospects for the development of the Internet. Marketing communications on the Internet Current state and development trends of the Internet

Today Internet occupies a very important place in a person's life. Currently connect to The Internet it is possible through communication satellites, radio channels, cable TV, telephone, cellular communication, electric wires. The World Wide Web has become an integral part of the lives of people in various countries. Thanks to Internet the web has great opportunities for us: here we work and relax, look for useful information, find out what is happening in the world, communicate and sometimes even find our soul mate.

According to the Public Opinion Foundation, in the fall of 2010, the share of Internet users among the country's adult population is 40% (or 46 million people). At the same time, 32 million people can be attributed to the active part of the audience that goes online at least once a day. Two years ago (!), The monthly Internet audience was about the same in terms of coverage (31.7 million).

For what purpose Russians use the Internet, you can find out from the VTsIOM study published in April 2010. It is interesting that among Russians who have connected to the Internet, most of those who need the Internet for work or study (58%). The number of Russians who need the Internet as a means of correspondence has increased (51%). Other arguments for using the Internet include broadening their horizons and receiving news (49% and 48%, respectively). The share of Russians using the Internet to communicate with other people (from 20% in 2006 to 39% this year), listen to music, watch films, read books (from 20 to 38%), look for like-minded people (from 9 up to 28%), play (from 11 to 21%). An important factor is making purchases via the Internet (12%).

By 2010, the Internet has become the fastest growing information medium in the history of mankind: the number of its users has reached 1.5 billion people, which allows us to speak not only about the prospects, but also about the presence of a qualitatively new information and communication reality, in the evolution of which several stages can be distinguished:

1. Web 1.0 - the content of Internet resources is formed by a relatively small group of professionals, and the vast majority of ordinary users consume this content;

2. Web 2.0 - Web users are actively involved in the creation of content, each of whom can be both a consumer and a producer of website content;

3. Web 3.0 - users not only generate content, but also certify it themselves (note that what deserves the attention of their like-minded people), systematize it according to their taste preferences.

It is worth noting that each subsequent stage of development does not replace the previous one, but only supplements it with new communication opportunities. Thus, we can speak of the Web 1.0 stage, for example, not as a historically obsolete technology, but as a completely modern phenomenon.

Since the creation of the Internet, the project has rapidly developed and spread throughout the world, penetrating into all spheres of public life and radically changing our way of life, search and work with information.

It is not difficult to draw conclusions about the trends in the distribution of the network, if by 2000 the number of Internet users was approximately only 360 million, and today there are already 2.7 billion users in the world.

Among the many likely trends in the future of the Internet, experts believe that the most important and pronounced of them are the following:

1. Global network management will remain the same.
2. The largest growth in the Internet market will occur outside of high-income countries with advanced economies.
3. The QWERTY keyboard will no longer be the main interface for human interaction with the Internet.
4. The fixed payment for access services will be replaced by completely different schemes of monetization of participation in the virtual life of the World Wide Web.

One of social factors is the growing up of the "Internet generation" - adolescents who have been familiar with the Internet since childhood. In this regard, their model of behavior and socialization will differ from the current one.

In addition, scientists and various analytical agencies identify four most possible scenarios for the future of the Internet.

The first is that the Internet will “grow” all over the world and will reach the most remote corners of the globe, and access to the network will be carried out mainly from gadgets (mobile devices, tablets).

According to the second scenario, cybercrime will reach the highest level that poses a threat to the Internet market, which will lead to the creation of analogs of the network that provide absolute security on a paid basis.

The third scenario implies the development of events in the economy, according to which some countries will be forced to pursue a policy of protectionism, which will “shatter” the Internet and lead to a slowdown in the introduction of new technologies and the speed of network spread.

The fourth scenario contains the idea that the popularity of the Internet will reach a critical point, and the World Wide Web will be overloaded, that is, it will not be able to cope with the flow of information due to existing restrictions.

The US research organization Pew Research Center predicts that by 2020 the virtual environment will be even more negative - it will contribute to the emergence of new bad habits; people will provide more and more personal information. In addition, a certain group of people will appear, existing outside the network, in order to show the status "outside the system", disobedience to technological changes.

Thus, at this stage, the development of the network is limitless. Unfortunately, we can only guess what the future Internet will have. It's no coincidence that 48% of experts doubt the ability of people to control technology in the future. Unfortunately, this opinion is not unfounded. With the advent of the latest devices and technologies, more and more prerequisites are becoming visible that justify the opinion of analysts. Many people associate further improvement of the public Internet with the introduction of the concept of the Semantic Web, which would allow people and computers to interact more effectively in the process of creating, classifying and processing information.

internet network computer semantic

INTRODUCTION

Today, many people are discovering the existence of global networks that unite computers all over the world into a single information space called the Internet. From a technical point of view, the Internet is an amalgamation of transnational computer networks operating under various protocols, connecting all kinds of computers, physically transmitting data over all available types of lines - from twisted pair and telephone wires to fiber and satellite channels.

In the archives of free access to the Internet, you can find information on almost all areas human activity starting with new scientific discoveries until the weather forecast for tomorrow.

The purpose of this paper is to describe the emergence and development of the Internet.

In the theoretical part of this term paper considered the global Internet, and most importantly, the trends of its development.

The relevance of the research topic is obvious. It is due to the fact that the Internet is persistently entering our lives. Today, even the creators of the electronic web and active users of this network often have little idea of its boundaries, content, degree of ordering, as well as the pace and scale of development. The study of trends in the development of the Internet is the purpose of this course work.

In the practical part of the course work, the problem is solved about the sale of its products by a bakery through three outlets: two bakeries and a cafe (Option number 15).

When writing the term paper were used following programs: Microsoft Office Word - 2007; Microsoft Office Excel - 2007.

The work was performed on a PC with the following characteristics:

Intel (R) Celeron (R) CPU 3.20GHz 3.20GHz, 1.50 GB RAM Physical expansion

1.Theoretical part

1.1 History of the Internet

The idea of creating the Internet was born in the United States military department. The goal of the project was to develop a network that could provide uninterrupted data transfer between decentralized military computers.

In September 1969, a group of students from the University of California, Los Angeles, led by Professor Leonard Kleinrock, created the world's first computer network, connecting two computing complexes with a 4.5 meter cable.

In October of the same year, the first attempt was made to remotely connect to a computer at the Stanford University Research Center from another computer at the University of California, Los Angeles. Testing that continued throughout the fall resulted in two more nodes being connected to the network: University of California, Santa Barbara and the University of Utah.

By the end of 1969, these four nodes were merged into the first configuration of the ARPAnet, which became the prototype of the Internet. The name of the network ARPAnet comes from the name of its founder Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA - US Office of Advanced Research Projects).

This network was based on a way of grouping information into packets. The theory of packet data transmission technology was developed by L. Kleinrock in the mid-1960s. In parallel with it, a group of employees of the RAND company was engaged in the development of packet data switching (the name of this company comes from the abbreviation R&D, ie "research and development").

The essence of the developed method consists in transmitting a data packet to the so-called cluster of a large number of computers connected to the network. In addition to the transmitted information, a header containing the recipient's address is attached to the packet. The computer that receives such a packet checks the ownership of the transmitted information to any of its clients and forwards unclaimed packets to the next computer, which may own them. When requested by the appropriate computer, the packet is expanded and the message is retrieved from it.

Packet delivery is controlled by a protocol - a set of rules that determine the method of transmission and formatting of data transmitted over a computer network.

One of the main results of the development of ARPAnet, which moved to the Internet, was the creation of network protocols TCP / IP. TCP / IP (Transmission Control Protocol / Internet Protocol) is a family of protocols that determine how data is broken down into packets for transmission over a network and how applications can forward packets. TCP (Transmission Control Protocol) is a transport protocol that determines the size of a packet of transmitted data and conducts fine tuning transmission parameters. IP (Internet Protocol) is the main network protocol that implements internetworking.

In 1984, the military network (MILnei) was separated from the ARPAnet, and the ARPAnet, later renamed the Internet, became an educational network.

In the mid-1980s, Internet access was controlled by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and other US government agencies. The network traffic was owned and funded by the US government. (Traffic is information transmitted over the Internet). In April 1995, the US government relinquished control of the Internet in favor of independent governing bodies.

Today, the functioning of basic communications is financed from various funds, and issues related to technical support, are decided by a number of public committees and councils. One of the most significant is the Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF). IETF is a public committee in which scientists and experts solve technical problems and issues of further development of the network. Another organization that has a significant impact on the future development of the network is the Internet Architecture Board (IAB). The IAB is a voluntary organization made up of a group of invited experts.

There are national and international segments of the Internet that are funded from various sources and managed by its own administration. IAB and IETF decisions are published on the Internet in the form of Request for Comment (RFC) documents. Such RFCs are stored on many host computers on the Internet.

1.2 Global Internet

The Internet, which has become a symbol of a new stage in the development of information technology at the turn of the century, has a significant impact on the work of specialists in various fields of human activity, including the work of humanities specialists. Apparently, the role of the Internet in their professional activity will only increase. In this regard, knowledge of the basic capabilities of the network and practical skills of working on the Internet are of great importance for specialists.

Internet is a global computer network covering the whole world and containing a huge amount of information on any topic, available commercially for everyone. In addition to receiving purely informational services via the Internet, you can make purchases and commercial transactions, pay bills, order tickets for different kinds transport, book places in hotels, etc.

The Internet consists of a multitude of local, territorial and global networks belonging to different companies and enterprises, operating on a wide variety of protocols, connecting all kinds of computers, physically transmitting data via wired, cable, satellite communication channels and radio frequencies.

The Internet is an unification of more than 40 thousand different local networks, for which it received the name Network of networks. Each local area network is called knot or website, a entity ensuring the operation of the site - provider. The site consists of several computers - servers, each of which is designed to store information of a certain type and in a certain format. Each site and server on a site has unique names by which they are identified on the Internet.

To connect to the Internet, the user must conclude a service contract with one of the providers in his region. After that, any work on the Internet begins with a connection to the provider's site, communication with the provider can be organized either through a dial-up telephone channel using a modem, or using a permanent dedicated channel. In the first case, the connection with the provider is performed using a modem and remote access means, in the second, simply by calling the appropriate program for working on the Internet. In both cases, after connecting to the provider, the user gets access to all sites and computers on the Internet. The opportunities that open up to the user in this case depend on the terms of the contract concluded with the provider. Potentially, the Internet provides a general information service.

ISPs (Internet Service Providers) have so-called POP (Point of Presence), where local users connect. A provider may have POPs in several cities. Each city has similar modem pools to which local clients of this provider in this city call. A provider usually rents fiber optic lines from the telephone company to connect all of its points of presence. Large communications companies have their own high-bandwidth channels.

The Internet is not a collection of direct connections between computers. So, for example, if two computers located on different continents exchange data on the Internet, this does not mean at all that there is one direct or virtual connection between them. The data they send to each other is split into packets, and even in the same communication session, different packets of the same message can pass different routes. Whatever routes the data packets take, they will still reach their destination and will be collected together into a single document. At the same time, data sent later may arrive earlier, but this does not prevent the document from being assembled correctly, since each packet has its own marking.

Thus, the Internet is like a "space" within which the continuous circulation of data is carried out. In this sense, it can be compared to television and radio broadcasting, although there is an obvious difference, at least in the fact that no information can be stored on the air, but on the Internet it moves between the computers that make up network nodes, and is stored on their hard drives for some time.

As organizations expand, computer networks also grow, designed to automate and provide information support for key business processes. In addition to the possibilities of integrating various computers into local area networks within one building, there is a need to unite separate LANs within a region, country or continent (in the case of large corporations - the world), using heterogeneous communication channels.

Thus, a global network is a set of LANs and individual computers separated by relatively large distances and connected at different points.

1.3 Internet development trends

In order to better represent the size of the Internet, the prevalence and volume of data with which the Internet deals, and most importantly the trends in the development of the Internet, some statistical data are provided. They are rough estimates because the Internet has no single host and almost no orderly, systematized, centralized statistics.

The trends in the development of the Internet are such that the number of Internet users is growing every hour, and the global network itself is changing and improving at a very rapid pace.

Today's processes taking place in the Internet market, which is already estimated at 3 trillion. dollars will undoubtedly affect the development of the World Wide Web itself. Among the many trends affecting technological progress in general and the Internet in particular, experts consider the following to be the most important:

The global governance of the Network will remain at the current level and will not undergo significant changes;

The largest growth in the Internet market will occur outside of high-income, advanced economies;

QWERTY keyboard is no longer the main interface for human interaction with the Internet;

The fixed payment for access services will be replaced by completely different schemes for monetizing participation in the virtual life of the World Wide Web.

However, it is impossible to take into account some important aspects - for example, the emergence of revolutionary technologies, the evolution of communication networks (with or without public investment), the interest of users in multifunctional Internet applications, etc. Obviously, such uncertainties give reason to talk about different scenarios. The experts consider four to be the most probable of them.

According to the first scenario, the Internet will reach the smallest settlements in all corners of the globe, it will cease to be an autonomous space, separated from the real world, will become the center for the provision of services on a global scale, and access to the Internet will be carried out mainly from mobile devices, but this does not at all mean complete displacement of the PC.

The second scenario is much less optimistic, and the reason for this is cybercrime. Many people underestimate this factor, but even now, according to a recent report from Symantec, 65% of Internet users have been victims of various kinds of attacks - from the common infection of computers with viruses to theft of personal accounts and credit card information. China, Brazil and India are the most susceptible to attacks, i.e. precisely those regions due to which the main growth of the Internet market is expected. According to Cisco experts, when the situation reaches a certain critical point, the World Wide Web may have secure counterparts with access to them on a paid basis.

The third scenario for the development of events for the medium term assumes that, due to the unstable economic situation, individual countries will pursue protectionist policies, which will turn out to be a kind of brake on e-business and will lead to a slowdown in the introduction of new technologies and a decrease in the speed of Internet penetration.

Experts are also considering a fourth possible option - the popularity of the Internet will increase so much that the World Wide Web will simply not be able to cope with the flow of information due to existing technical constraints.

Accordingly, there will be changes in the business models implemented on the Internet. Experts predict a shift in emphasis from providing access to the Web by subscription to indirect payment, especially for content and software. In addition, it is expected that traditional Internet services will be replaced by specialized compact applications that are less focused on search and more on the needs of the user at a given moment.

The need to run applications on a local PC will gradually recede - it will be enough to have a browser that supports modern standards.

In the coming years, the share of media on the Internet will continue to increase mainly due to user-generated content: network video traffic is growing by 60% annually, and over the next 5-8 years its volume will multiply by 100 times. Very soon, business models can be expected to explode with the goal of generating profits from resources powered by user-generated content.

The possibility of online participation in the activities of companies has significantly changed the structure and essence of entrepreneurship, the business environment itself and, obviously, over time will have an increasing impact on technology development. economic indicators and user demand.

According to European experts, in the coming years, the role and degree of participation in the global economy of small enterprises will change, which have already received advertising opportunities on the Internet almost equal to those of large corporations, but at the same time significantly surpass the latter in the flexibility and reactivity of business models.

The very basis of competition will also change: from sales to access, from direct transactions with customers to multilateral interaction platforms, from competition in prices, quality or capabilities to innovative products, services and communication tools available by subscription in special service packages. In the long term, the products of the future are likely to be developed, marketed and ordered as a service, especially when the components of the "wireless appliance network" become interoperable.

CONCLUSION

The Internet is penetrating deeper into the life of a particular person, for several years now millions of people cannot imagine their life without e-mail, news sites, communication using instant messengers, audio and video services, without forums and blogs and other very useful things. There comes a time when the means that were previously used are no longer suitable.

The Internet is developing, and this process can no longer be stopped, since the network is decentralized, and the disconnection of one segment cannot unbalance it. The Internet provides a unique experience for most people. This and the search the information you need, communication, communication with people around the world, purchasing goods in e-shops, training and just leisure. Every month more and more users connect to the network, and Runet, the Russian segment of the Internet, is not lagging behind in this component. Most predicted foreign companies the most promising IT market in the world is Russia and China. This can be confirmed by the fact that all leading companies (ATI, Nvidia, Gigabyte, etc.) computer technology open Russian-language sites where constantly updated information is provided.

Positive trends in the development of the Internet and a huge audience of users have turned the network into a global phenomenon that has a significant impact on the development of civilization as a whole.

2. Practical part

1.2 General characteristics of the problem

The bakery sells its products through three outlets: two bakeries and a cafe.

1. Create a summary of the sale of goods in one day according to the form below (Fig. 1) and make calculations in the column "Amount, rubles." with the calculation of the totals for retail outlets.

2. Generate a summary table (Fig. 2), after consolidating by category, present the results in graphical form.

3. Create a pivot table by grouping data by type of baked goods (white bread, black bread), for all retail outlets.

One day sales summary
Name	Quantity, pcs.	price, rub.	Amount, rub.	Type of products
Bakery number 1
Urban				White bread
				black bread
Borodinsky				black bread
White loaf				White bread
				White bread

Bakery number 2
Urban				White bread
				black bread
				White bread
				White bread

Cafe "XXI century"
				White bread
White loaf				White bread
				black bread
				White bread

Fig. 1 Summary of product sales in one day

Name	Quantity, pcs.	price, rub.	Amount, rub.	Type of products
Urban				White bread
				black bread
Borodinsky				black bread
				White bread
White loaf				White bread
				White bread
				White bread

Rice. 2. Summary table

2.2 Description of the algorithm for solving the problem

We launch the MS Excel spreadsheet processor.
Create a book named "Bakery".
On MS Excel worksheet 1, create a table "Summary of the sale of goods in one day" in the form given (Fig. 1).

Rice. 1 Location of the table "Summary of the sale of goods in one day"

In the column "Amount, rubles." we carry out calculations: in cell D4 we enter the formula: = Product (B4: C4) and copy it into cells D5 - D8 (Fig. 2).
We calculate the totals for outlets: in cell B9 we enter the formula: = SUM (B4: B8) and copy it into cells C9 and D9 (Fig. 2)

Rice. 2 "Summary of the sale of goods in one day"

We perform similar operations at two other retail outlets.
In the "Total" column, we carry out the calculations: in cell B22 we enter the formula: = SUM (B9: B15: B21) and copy it into cells C22 and D22 and get a fully completed summary of product sales in one day (Fig. 3).

Rice. 3 "Summary of the sale of goods in one day"

On sheet 1, we form a summary table, performing consolidation by category: first, we create a table header in a given form. Then we activate cell A3 and go to the data menu, select consolidation. In the column "Function" we indicate the SUM. In the column link on sheet 1, select the desired area for each outlet and call the "Add" function. Mark the column "Left column value" and click "Ok". We fill in the “Price” column with the initial data from the form provided in the condition. To fill in the column "Amount, rubles." in cell D3 we indicate the formula: = PRODUCT (B3: C3) and copy it into cells D4-D9. To calculate in the "TOTAL" column, indicate in cell B10 the formula: = SUM (B3: B9) and copy it into cells C10 and D10. We get a fully formed table. We rearrange the final table according to the species order of bakery products to create a pivot table (Fig. 4).

Rice. 4 "Summary table"

We call the "Chart Wizard" and build a histogram (Fig. 5).

Fig.5 "Summary chart"

11. On sheet 2, we create a pivot table, grouping the data by the type of bakery products (white bread, black bread) for all outlets. To do this, create a table form and copy the data of product types from the rearranged summary table. Then we make calculations in the "TOTAL" columns for each group of bakery products. To do this, first in cell B10 we indicate the formula: SUM (B5: B9) and copy it into cells C10 and D10, then in cell B16 we indicate the formula: SUM (B14: B15) and copy it into cells C16 and D16. We get a pivot table, made by grouping data by type of bakery products (white bread, black bread) for all outlets (Fig. 6).

Fig.6 "Pivot table"

LIST OF USED LITERATURE

Computer science. Basic course. 2nd edition / Ed. S. V. Simonovich. - SPb .: Peter, 2004 .-- 640 s: ill.
Informatics in Economics: Textbook. Allowance / Ed. prof. B.E. Odintsov, prof. A.N. Romanov. - M .: University textbook, 2008 .-- 478 p.
Informatics for Economists: Textbook / Under total. ed. V.M. Matyushka. - M .: INFRA-M, 2007 .-- 880 p. - (Textbooks of RUDN University).
Computer science: Methodical instructions on the implementation of coursework for independent work of students of the II course (the first higher education). - M .: University textbook, 2006. - 60 p.
Informatics: textbook / B.V. Sable [and others] .- Ed. 3rd, add. and revised - Rostov n / a: Phoenix, 2007. - 446 p. - (Higher education).
Informatics: Textbook / Under total. Ed. A.N. Danchula. - M .: Publishing house of RAGS, 2004 .-- 528 p.
Stepanov A.N. Informatics: Textbook for universities. 4th ed. - SPb .: Peter, 2006 .-- 684 p .: ill.
Development trends of the INTERNET: http://news.babr.ru/?IDE=89856 (25.04.11)
Economic informatics: Textbook / Ed. V.P. Kosareva and L.V. Eremina. - M .: Finance and statistics, 2002.- 592 p: ill.
Economic informatics: Textbook. allowance / N.I. Savitsky. - M .: Economist, 2004.

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The number of Internet users worldwide has reached 2.4 billion worldwide. By 2020, according to the forecasts of the US National Science Foundation, the number of Internet users will increase to 5 billion. The Internet will become more geographically distributed. The largest increase in users in the next 10 years will come from residents of developing countries in Africa (currently no more than 7% are used), Asia (about 19%) and the Middle East (about 28%). For comparison, currently more than 72% of residents North America use the Internet. This trend means that by 2020 the Internet will not only reach remote places around the world, but will also support many more languages and not only the ASCII coding system we are used to. According to the results of research by the agency RBC.research, the level of Internet penetration in Russia in 2018 will exceed 80%.

The era of software begins in information technology.

Now we are going through a stage of intellectualization of "hardware", when software becomes more important than the equipment itself. Market
"Iron" will shrink. Growth of 2.1% is forecasted until 2018, mainly due to the growth of the PC market (it will grow by 7.5%) and
peripheral devices (printers, scanners, etc.). XXI century is a century wireless technologies.

The data transfer rate and bandwidth are increased.
Today, the transfer rate of data in good computers
- 40 Gbps For example, 4 volumes of the novel "War and Peace" by L. Tolstoy are about 40 Mbit, i.e. 1000 times less! These 4 volumes can be transferred in less than 1 microsecond. But, in the near future, it will be possible to transfer data at the speed of light. Today there is WiGik technology, which allows transmitting information at a speed of 7 Gb / s over a distance of several kilometers. by coding information at the physical level.

So it is with bandwidth. According to Cisco, today over 35 million users work simultaneously on Skype, over 200 million on Facebook, and 72 hours of video are uploaded to YouTube every minute. By 2015, the number of devices on the network has become twice as high as the world's population, and about 80% of this traffic will be video traffic. Images and video files, which are constantly exchanged on the World Wide Web, require a higher bandwidth... Users will communicate and exchange information via video and voice in real time.

Semantic WEB.

We are rightfully moving towards the "semantic Internet", in which information is given a precisely defined meaning, which allows computers to "understand" and process it at the semantic level. Today computers work at the syntactic level, at the level of signs, they read and process information based on external signs. The term "semantic web" was first coined by Sir Tim Berners-Lee (one of the inventors of the World Wide Web) in Scientific American. The semantic WEB will allow you to find information on the search: for example, "find information about animals that use sound location, but are not a bat or a dolphin."

New transfer objects.

Thanks to the development of new technologies, it will be possible to transfer through computer networks what previously seemed impossible. For example - smell. The machine analyzes the molecular composition of the air at one point and transmits this data over the network. At another point in the network, this molecular composition, i.e. the smell is synthesized. A prototype of such a device has already been released by the American company Mint Foundry, it is called Olly, until it went on the free sale. However, soon we will be able to see the embodiment of these possibilities in Everyday life.
The Internet will become a network of things, not just computers.
Today there are over 700 million computers on the Internet. Each year, the user has an increase in the number of devices that go online. IP addresses are needed for the operation of household appliances.

WITH new architecture computer networks, the era of the "Internet of things" will come. One of the nearest developments - this is "smart dust"- sensors scattered over a large area collecting information. The US National Science Foundation predicts that about billions of sensors on buildings, bridges, roads will be connected to the Internet for purposes such as monitoring electricity use, for safety, and more. You can cite the reflections of Winton Gray Surf (American mathematician, considered one of the inventors of the TCP / IP protocol, vice president of Google): so that the refrigerator will fix whatever you put in it. In this case, while at the university or at work, you can view this information from your phone, look at different options for recipes, and the refrigerator would suggest you what to cook today.

If you expand this idea, you get something like the following picture. You go to the store, and while you are there, your phone calls mobile phone- it calls you the refrigerator, which advises what exactly to buy. " Through your own account, you can feed the pets and start the washing machine.

Robotization of society.

Already today we know examples of unmanned aerial vehicles, automatic vacuum cleaners, robotic police “work” in Japan - all these technologies perform their functions without human intervention. And every year the penetration of such machines will only increase. One of the unsolvable problems in computing is the problem of how computers can recreate thinking. However, it is possible to connect the human brain to a cybernetic, computer system. Already today there are similar experiments, when a human leg or arm prosthesis is attached to the spinal cord. Let's recall the example of the South African runner Oscar Pistorius, who has been deprived of both legs since childhood, but outrun absolutely healthy competitors in competitions thanks to carbon prostheses. According to experts, the first such "superhuman" cyber organism will appear before 2030. It will be physically perfect, resistant to disease, radiation and extreme temperatures. And at the same time he will have a human brain.
The new status of a person on the Internet.

The Internet is changing a person's life. The World Wide Web is becoming a tool for the implementation of everyday needs: such as making purchases, paying utilities and others. The Internet has changed the relationship between man and the state. Personal communication, personal appeal to special services will be minimized. Submit documents to a university, call an ambulance, write a statement to the police, issue a passport - all this can be done electronically today. In this regard, there will be a minimum of anonymity. The luxury of changing passwords and creating accounts under non-existent names, leaving caustic comments under an invisible hat - most likely will not. The login / password for entering the network can become a means of identifying a person, and his real passport data will be tied to it.

Changes in the labor market and education.

The active penetration of network technologies and the Internet will lead to changes in the labor market and in the field of education. Programs tie people not so much to a specific office as to the computer itself. There will be more and more employees performing their work remotely. And there will be more and more offices in the "pocket", i.e. virtual businesses that only exist on the Internet.

Cyber weapons and cyber warfare.

The development of Internet technologies and the possibilities of computer networks have another side of the coin. The malicious worm can be used as espionage, as well as sabotage of power plants, airports and other life-supporting enterprises. For example, in 2010, the Stuxnet computer worm hit Iran's nuclear facilities, setting that country's nuclear program back two years. The use of the malicious program turned out to be comparable in efficiency to a full-fledged military operation, but in the absence of human casualties. The uniqueness of this program was that for the first time in the history of cyberattacks, a virus physically destroyed the infrastructure. The largest hacker attack in history has slowed down data transfer rates across the entire Internet. The target of the attack was the European anti-spam company Spamhaus. The power of DDoS attacks was 300 Gb / s, while the capacity of 50 Gb / s is enough to disable the infrastructure of a large financial institution.

The exit of the Internet and network technologies into space.
Today the Internet has a planetary scale. On the agenda are interplanetary space and the space Internet. The International Space Station is connected to the Internet, which significantly speeds up the operation and interaction of the station with the Earth. But the usual establishment of communication using fiber optic or simple cable, which is very effective in terrestrial conditions, is not possible in space. In particular, due to the fact that it is impossible to use the usual TCP / IP protocol in interplanetary space (protocol is a special "language" of computer networks for "communication" with each other). Research work on the creation of a new protocol, thanks to which the Internet could function both on lunar stations and on Mars, are underway. So, one of these protocols is called Disruption Tolerant Networking (DTN)... Computer networks with this protocol have already been used for communication between the ISS and the Earth, in particular, photographs of salts, which were obtained in a state of weightlessness, were sent via communication channels.

The development and implementation of all these trends is possible only after the introduction of a new, more flexible architecture of computer networks. In the entire scientific IT world, this is question number 1... The most promising computer network technology / architecture today that is capable of getting out of the crisis is the softwere definednetwork technology. In 2007, the staff of the University of Stanford and Berkeley developed a new "language" for communication of computer networks - the OpenFlow protocol and a new algorithm for the operation of computer networks - PCN technology. Its main value is that it allows you to get away from "manual" network management. In modern networks, control and data transmission functions are combined, which makes control and management very complex. PKS- the architecture separates the control process and the data transfer process. This opens up tremendous opportunities for the development of Internet technologies, since the PCS does not limit us in anything, bringing software to the fore. In Russia, the Center for Applied Research of Computer Networks is engaged in the study of PCNs.

(Center for Applied Research of Computer Networks)

TsPIKS is a research project to create technologies and products for new generation computer networks in Russia. We develop and implement the latest and most promising technologies in the field of computer networks and the Internet, demonstrate and test the effectiveness of these technologies on the tasks of industry and business. Resident of the IT cluster of the Skolkovo Innovation Fund.

Trends in the development of computer networks and the Internet

Material prepared specially for the magazineSkolkovo Review

Today it is impossible to imagine our life without the Internet and information technology. They have firmly entered our life, greatly simplifying it. With the development of information technology, new tools become available to us that make the processes we are used to faster, more convenient, and cheaper. However, the changes that we are now seeing are just the tip of the iceberg. Networked technologies are only at the beginning of their growth path and truly great innovations lie ahead of us. So, what kind of evolution for the coming decades can be predicted today, seeing in which direction the development of computer networks and the Internet is going?
1. The coverage of the audience will grow, the Internet will appear in the most remote places of the planet. By the end of 2012, the number of Internet users worldwide had reached 2.4 billion worldwide. By 2020, according to the forecasts of the US National Science Foundation, the number of Internet users will increase to 5 billion. The Internet will become more geographically distributed. The largest increase in users in the next 10 years will come from residents of developing countries in Africa (currently no more than 7% are used), Asia (about 19%) and the Middle East (about 28%). By comparison, over 72% of North Americans are currently using the Internet. This trend means that by 2020 the Internet will not only reach remote places around the world, but will also support many more languages and not only the ASCII coding system we are used to. Russian Internet users, according to the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications of the Russian Federation, at the beginning of 2012 were 70 million people. According to this indicator, Russia came out on top in Europe and on sixth place in the world. According to the results of research by the agency RBC.research, the level of Internet penetration in Russia in 2018 will exceed 80%.
2.In information technology the era of software begins. Now we are going through a stage of intellectualization of hardware, when software becomes more important than the hardware itself. The software industry will grow at a rapid pace: in 2010. the annual growth rate of software was at least 6%, in 2015 the market volume will reach $ 365 billion, a quarter of which falls on the market for business applications. The hardware market will shrink: the market volume in 2013 amounted to $ 608 billion, the growth rate from 2008 to 2013 is negative -0.7%. Growth of 2.1% is forecasted until 2018, mainly due to the growth of the PC market (it will grow by 7.5%) and peripheral devices (printers, scanners, etc.). The XXI century is the age of wireless technologies. In 2009 alone, the number of mobile subscribers broadband(3G, WiMAX and other high-speed data transmission technologies) increased by 85%. By 2014, it is predicted that 2.5 billion people worldwide will be using mobile broadband.
3. The data transfer rate and bandwidth are increased. Today the data transfer rate in good computers is 40 Gbps. For example, 4 volumes of the novel "War and Peace" by L. Tolstoy are about 40 Mbit, i.e. 1000 times less! These 4 volumes can be transferred in less than 1 microsecond. But, in the near future, it will be possible to transfer data at the speed of light. Already today there is WiGik technology, which allows transmitting information at a speed of 7 Gb / s over a distance of several kilometers. by coding information at the physical level. So it is with bandwidth. According to Cisco, today over 35 million users work simultaneously on Skype, over 200 million on Facebook, and 72 hours of video are uploaded to YouTube every minute. Experts predict that by 2015 the number of devices on the network will be twice as high as the world's population. By 2014, about 80% of this traffic will be video traffic. Images and video files that are constantly exchanged on the World Wide Web require higher bandwidth. And technologies will develop in this direction. Users will communicate and exchange information via video and voice in real time. More and more network applications are emerging that require online interaction.
4. Semantic WEB. We are rightfully moving towards the "semantic Internet", in which information is given a precisely defined meaning, which allows computers to "understand" and process it at the semantic level. Today computers work at the syntactic level, at the level of signs, they read and process information based on external signs. The term "semantic web" was first coined by Sir Tim Berners-Lee (one of the inventors of the World Wide Web) in Scientific American. The semantic WEB will allow you to find information on the search: "Find information about animals that use sound location, but are not a bat or a dolphin," for example.
5. New transfer objects. Thanks to the development of new technologies, it will be possible to transfer through computer networks what previously seemed impossible. For example - smell. The machine analyzes the molecular composition of the air at one point and transmits this data over the network. At another point in the network, this molecular composition, i.e. the smell is synthesized. A prototype of such a device has already been released by the American company Mint Foundry, it is called Olly, until it went on the free sale. However, soon we will be able to see the embodiment of these possibilities in everyday life.
6. The Internet will become a network of things, not just computers. Today, there are over 700 million computers on the Internet (according to the CIA World Factbook 2012). Every year, the user has an increase in the number of devices that go online: computers, phones, tablets, etc. Already today, the number of IP addresses exceeds the number of the world's population (IP addresses are needed for the operation of household appliances). With the new architecture of computer networks, the era of the "Internet of Things" will come. Things and objects will interact through networks, this will open up great opportunities for all spheres of human life. One of the nearest developments is "smart dust" - sensors scattered over a large area, collecting information. The US National Science Foundation predicts that about billions of sensors on buildings, bridges, roads will be connected to the Internet for purposes such as monitoring electricity use, for safety, and more. In general, it is expected that by 2020 the number of Internet-connected sensors will be an order of magnitude greater than the number of users. In continuation of this thought, we can cite the reflections of Vinton Gray Surf (an American mathematician, considered one of the inventors of the TCP / IP protocol, vice president of Google): or a microchip so that the refrigerator records everything that you put in it. In this case, while at the university or at work, you can view this information from your phone, look at different options for recipes, and the refrigerator would suggest you what to cook today. If you expand this idea, you get something like the following picture. You go to the store, and while you are there, your mobile phone rings - the refrigerator calls you and advises you what to buy. " The Smart Internet will transform social networks (as we have today) into social media systems. The premises will be equipped with cameras and various sensors. Through your own account, you can feed the pets and start the washing machine, for example.
7. Robotization of society. Already today we know examples of unmanned aerial vehicles, automatic vacuum cleaners, robotic police “work” in Japan - all these technologies perform their functions without human intervention. And every year the penetration of such machines will only increase. One of the unsolvable problems in computing is the problem of how computers can recreate thinking. However, it is possible to connect the human brain to a cybernetic, computer system. Let's remember the movie "Robocop". Already today there are similar experiments, when a human leg or arm prosthesis is attached to the spinal cord. Let's recall the example of the South African runner Oscar Pistorius, who has been deprived of both legs since childhood, but outrun absolutely healthy competitors in competitions thanks to carbon prostheses. According to experts, the first such "super man" cyber organism will appear before 2030. He will be f isically perfect, resistant to disease, radiation and extreme temperatures. And at the same time he will have a human brain.
8. The new status of a person on the Internet. The Internet is changing a person's life. The World Wide Web is becoming not only a platform for obtaining information and communication, but also a tool for the implementation of everyday needs: such as making purchases, paying for utilities, etc. The Internet has changed the relationship between a person and the state. Personal communication, personal contact with special services will be minimized. Submit documents to a university, call an ambulance, write a statement to the police, issue a passport - all this can be done electronically today. The state will continue to be forced to generate services via the Internet. Today electronic document management throughout the country - the highest priority of the Ministry of Communications and mass communications RF. It is also necessary to talk about the new status of a person in the world of Internet technologies. Internet access will become a civil right of every person, will be sacredly protected and controlled by law, along with other civil liberties. This is the near future. Thus, the concept of democracy in society is changing. For the expression of the will of citizens, special platforms, stands, media are no longer needed. In this regard, there will be a minimum of anonymity. The luxury of changing passwords and creating accounts under non-existent names, leaving caustic comments under an invisible hat - most likely will not. The login / password for entering the network can become a means of identifying a person, and his real passport data will be tied to it. Moreover, most likely this will not be an imposition "from above", as an attempt at censorship and control. And the desire of the society itself, the need "from below". Because the more life on the Internet is real, the more transparency its users will want. A person's reputation in life will determine his reputation and in the global network, there will be no invented biographies. Having determined the person's data, the network will itself create filters and passes to access information on age restrictions, to private information, to various services in accordance with the ability to pay and even social security.
9. Changes in the labor market and education. The active penetration of network technologies and the Internet will lead to changes in the labor market and in the field of education. The Internet has already become a global and key communication tool; it is increasingly transforming from an entertainment platform to a work platform. Social networks, e-mail, Skype, information resources, corporate websites and programs built into the computer bind people not so much to a specific office as to the computer itself. And here it doesn't matter where you use it: from work, from home, from a cafe or from the coast of the Indian Ocean. There will be more and more employees performing their work remotely. And there will be more and more offices in the "pocket", i.e. virtual businesses that only exist on the Internet. People who receive education remotely through the new formats provided by the Internet - too. For example, today at Stanford University, a lecture by two professors is listened to simultaneously by 25,000 people!
10. The Internet will become greener. Networking technologies consume too much energy, the volume of it is growing, and experts agree that the future architecture of computer networks should be more energy efficient. According to the Lawrence University of Berkeley National Laboratory, the amount of energy consumed global network, in the period from 2000 to 2006 it doubled (!). The Internet accounts for 2% of the world's electricity consumption, which is equivalent to the power of 30 nuclear power plants- 30 billion watts. The trend towards “greening” or “greening” the Internet will accelerate as energy prices rise.
11. Cyber weapons and cyber warfare. The development of Internet technologies and the possibilities of computer networks have another side of the coin. Ranging from cybercrimes associated with the increase in online e-commerce, to cyberwarfare. Cyberspace has already been officially recognized as the fifth "battlefield" (the same as land, sea, air space and space). In 2010, the US Navy even created the CYBERFOR cyber troops, which are directly subordinate to the US Navy command. Today, hackers' virus attacks affect not only the PCs of ordinary users, but also industrial systems managing automated production processes... The malicious worm can be used as espionage, as well as sabotage of power plants, airports and other life-supporting enterprises. For example, in 2010, the Stuxnet computer worm hit Iran's nuclear facilities, setting that country's nuclear program back two years. The use of the malicious program turned out to be comparable in efficiency to a full-fledged military operation, but in the absence of human casualties. The uniqueness of this program was that for the first time in the history of cyberattacks, a virus physically destroyed the infrastructure. Most recently, on March 27 of this year, the largest hacker attack in history took place, which even reduced the data transfer rate on the entire Internet. The target of the attack was the European anti-spam company Spamhaus. The power of DDoS attacks was 300 Gbps, while the capacity of 50 Gbps is enough to disable the infrastructure of a large financial institution. Problem national security Is one of the most important issues on the agenda in developed countries... The current architecture of computer networks cannot provide such security. Therefore, the industry of antivirus / web protection and the development of new security technologies will grow every year.
12. The exit of the Internet and network technologies into space. Today the Internet has a planetary scale. On the agenda are interplanetary space and the space Internet.

The International Space Station is connected to the Internet, which significantly speeds up the operation and interaction of the station with the Earth. But the usual establishment of communication using fiber optic or simple cable, which is very effective in terrestrial conditions, is not possible in space. In particular, due to the fact that it is impossible to use the usual TCP / IP protocol in interplanetary space (protocol is a special "language" of computer networks for "communication" with each other).

Research work on the creation of a new protocol, thanks to which the Internet could function both on lunar stations and on Mars, is underway. So, one of these protocols is called Disruption Tolerant Networking (DTN). Computer networks with this protocol have already been used for communication between the ISS and the Earth, in particular, photographs of salts, which were obtained in a state of weightlessness, were sent via communication channels. But experiments in this area continue.

For more than two decades of its development, the Internet has practically not changed conceptually and architecturally. On the one hand, new technologies for data transmission were introduced, on the other, new services were created, but the basic concept of the network, the architecture of computer networks remain at the level of the 80s of the last century. Change is not only long overdue, but vital. Because innovation is impossible based on the old architecture. Computer networks are already working at the limit of their capabilities, and the load that networks will have to experience with such active growth, they may simply not be able to withstand. The development and implementation of all these trends is possible only after the introduction of a new, more flexible architecture of computer networks. In the entire scientific IT world, this is the # 1 question.

The most promising technology / architecture of computer networks today, which is able to bring out of the crisis, is software-defined networking technology (softweredefinednetwork). In 2007, the staff of the University of Stanford and Berkeley developed a new "language" of communication of computer networks - OpenFlo protocolw and a new algorithm for the operation of computer networks - PKS technology . Its main value is that it allows you to get away from "manual" network management. In modern networks, control and data transmission functions are combined, which makes control and management very complex. The SCN architecture separates the control process and the data transfer process. This opens up tremendous opportunities for the development of Internet technologies, since the PCS does not limit us in anything, bringing software to the fore. In Russia, the Center for Applied Research of Computer Networks is engaged in the study of PCNs.

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