Report on the prospects for the development of agriculture. Prospects for the development of agriculture. Agricultural Development Trends

Department of Economic Theory, National and World Economy

COURSE WORK

By discipline
WORLD ECONOMY

On the topic:
Development trends Agriculture in the global economy
2010

INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………………….3

1.1 The concept of agriculture and its structure………………………………5

1.2 Main features of agricultural development……………………..8

1.3 The role of agriculture in the modern world economy…………...12

2.1 Problems of agricultural development……………………………………..15

2.2 Agricultural development trends………………………………….18

3.1 Prospects for the development of agriculture in the world………………………21

3.2 Prospects for the development of agriculture in Russia…………………….25

CONCLUSION………………………………………………………………...27

LIST OF USED LITERATURE………………………...29
INTRODUCTION

The relevance of this work is determined by a number of factors. Agriculture is not only the oldest and most dependent on natural conditions branch of the economy, but also the way of life of most of the world's population, this is the most extensive vital branch of the national economy, which determines the standard of living of people.

Under these conditions, the study of further trends in the development of world agriculture, which today employs half of the world's population, becomes as relevant as possible.

The object of this course is world agriculture, which is a system consisting of agricultural industries of all countries, characterized by a huge variety of agricultural relations, different volumes of agricultural products, different composition of marketable and gross output, methods and methods of farming and animal husbandry.

Agriculture creates food for the population, raw materials for many industries (food, feed, textile, pharmaceutical, perfumery, etc.), reproduces living draft power (horse breeding, reindeer breeding, etc.), includes agricultural sectors (field farming, vegetable growing , fruit growing, viticulture, etc.) and animal husbandry (cattle breeding, pig breeding, sheep breeding, poultry farming, etc.), the correct combination of which ensures the rational use of material and labor resources.

And, finally, in this industry there is a direct interaction of man with nature, on which human health, its psychological, nervous, emotional state, and the like, largely depend.

The purpose of this term paper to uncover modern tendencies development of world agriculture. Based on the goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:

To study the concept of agriculture and the main features of its development;

Reflect current trends and prospects for the development of agriculture.
Chapter 1. Agriculture and its role in the world economy

1.1. The concept of agriculture and its structure

Agriculture is the most important branch of the world economy. Its main purpose is to provide the population with food, and light and food industry - with raw materials.

Agriculture is the only industry material production, which depends on natural conditions such as climate, environment and water availability. Also important economic forces, such as market prices and production costs, as well as country policies including targeted subsidies to grow (or, conversely, not to grow - to avoid overproduction) certain crops.

The main branches of agriculture:

1. Animal husbandry is widespread almost everywhere. The location of its branches depends, first of all, on the forage base. Three leading branches of animal husbandry: cattle breeding, pig breeding, sheep breeding.

Cattle breeding - breeding of large cattle(cattle), foreign Asia and Latin America have the largest number of cattle.

In animal husbandry, there are three main areas:

Dairy (typical for densely populated areas of Europe, North America);

Meat and dairy (common in the forest and forest-steppe zone);

Meat (dry regions of the temperate and subtropical zones). The largest livestock of cattle is possessed by: India, Argentina, Brazil, USA, China, Russia.

Pig breeding is widespread everywhere, regardless of natural conditions. It tends to densely populated areas, large cities, and areas of intensive potato growing. The leader is China (almost half of the world's livestock), followed by the United States, Russia, Germany, and Brazil.

Sheep breeding predominates in countries and regions with extensive pastures. The largest number of sheep in Australia, China, New Zealand, Russia, India, Turkey, Kazakhstan.

Leadership in the production of livestock products belongs to economically developed countries and is distributed as follows:

Meat production - USA, China, Russia;

Oil production - Russia, Germany, France;

Milk production - USA, India, Russia.

The main exporters of livestock products:

Poultry meat - France, USA, Netherlands;

Lamb - New Zealand, Australia, UK;

Pork - the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Canada;

Beef - Australia, Germany, France;

Oil - the Netherlands, Finland, Germany;

Wool - Australia, New Zealand, Argentina.

2. Crop production is the most important branch of agriculture in the world. It is developed almost everywhere, with the exception of the tundra, arctic deserts and highlands.

Due to the large variety of agricultural crops, the composition of crop production is quite complex. In crop production, there are:

Grain farming;  production of industrial crops;

Vegetable growing;  gardening;

Production of fodder crops, etc.

Grain crops include wheat, rye, barley, buckwheat, oats, etc. Leading among them are wheat, corn and rice, which account for 4/5 of the gross harvest of all grains. The main producers of the three main crops are:

Wheat - China, USA, Russia, France, Canada, Ukraine;

Rice - China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Bangladesh;

Corn - USA, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina.

Among the main exporters are the USA, Canada, Australia (wheat), Thailand, USA (rice), Argentina, USA (corn). Grain is mainly imported by Japan and Russia. Other food crops include:

Oilseeds - soybeans, sunflowers, peanuts, rapeseed, sesame, castor beans, as well as olive tree, oil and coconut palm. The main producers of oilseeds are the USA (soybeans), Russia (sunflower), China (rapeseed), Brazil (peanuts).

Tuber crops - potatoes. The largest collection of potatoes in Europe, India, China and the USA.

Saccharones - sugar cane, sugar beet. The main producers of sugar cane are Brazil, India, Cuba; sugar beet - Ukraine, France, Russia, Poland.

Vegetable crops. Distributed in all countries of the world.

Tonic cultures - tea, coffee, cocoa. The main exporter of tea is India, coffee - Brazil, cocoa - Côte d'Ivoire.

Fibrous crops (cotton, flax, sisal, jute), natural rubber, and tobacco stand out among the non-food crops.

The main exporters of cotton are the USA, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, China, India, and Egypt.

The largest tobacco producer is China, India, Brazil, Italy, Bulgaria, Turkey, Cuba, and Japan produce it in much smaller volumes.

3. Fishing belongs to the smallest part of agriculture.
1.2 Main features of agriculture in different countries ah peace

The role of agriculture in the economy of different countries and regions varies greatly. The geography of agriculture is distinguished by an exceptional variety of forms of production and agrarian relations. Moreover, all its types can be combined into two groups:

1. Commodity agriculture - is characterized by high productivity, intensity of development, high level of specialization. Commodity agriculture includes both intensive farming and animal husbandry, horticulture and horticulture, as well as extensive fallow and fallow type agriculture and pasture animal husbandry;

2. Consumer agriculture - characterized by low productivity, extensive development, lack of specialization. Consumer agriculture includes more backward plow and hoe farming, grazing, nomadic pastoralism, as well as gathering, hunting and fishing.

High-commodity, deeply specialized agriculture prevails in developed countries. It has reached the highest possible level of mechanization and chemicalization. The average yield in these countries is 35-40 centners per hectare. The agro-industrial complex in them has taken the form of agribusiness, which gives the industry an industrial character.

In developing countries, traditional low-commodity (consumer) farming prevails with an average grain yield of 15-20 centners per hectare and below. The low-commodity sector is represented by small and tiny farms growing consumer crops; along with this, there is also a highly commercial economy, represented by large and well-organized plantations (banana plantations in Central America, coffee - in Brazil).

Commercial agriculture

Consumer agriculture

Is different:

Is different:

High productivity

Low productivity

Intensity of development

Extensive development

high level

Farm specializations

Lack of specialization

Includes:

Intensive agriculture and animal husbandry with a large volume of harvesting

backward plow and hoe agriculture

Gardening and vegetable growing

Pasture animal husbandry

Pasture animal husbandry

Nomadic and semi-nomadic pastoralism

Extensive fallow and fallow farming

Gathering, hunting and fishing
Table 1. The main differences between commercial agriculture and consumer agriculture.

The agriculture of developed countries is characterized by a sharp predominance of commercial agriculture. It develops on the basis of mechanization, chemicalization of production, the use of biotechnology, and the latest breeding methods.

Technical re-equipment and intensification of production led to an increase in the share of large farms with a narrow specialization. At the same time, agriculture is industrial in nature, since it is included in a single agro-industrial complex with processing, storage, transportation and marketing of products, as well as the production of fertilizers and equipment (the so-called agribusiness).

Agriculture in developing countries is more heterogeneous and includes:

> traditional sector - consumer agriculture, mainly crop production with small peasant farms providing themselves with food;

> modern sector - commercial agriculture with well-organized plantations and farms, using the best land and hired labor, using modern technology, fertilizers, the main products of which are oriented to the foreign market.

The high share of the traditional sector in the agriculture of developing countries determines their significant lag in the development of this industry.

As a branch of agriculture, agriculture has the following main features:

1. economic process reproduction is intertwined with the natural process of growth and development of living organisms, developing on the basis of biological laws.

2. The cyclical process of natural growth and development of plants and animals has determined the seasonality of agricultural work.

3. Unlike industry technological process in agriculture is closely connected with nature, where the land acts as the main means of production.

FAO experts note that 78% of the earth's surface is experiencing serious natural limitations for the development of agriculture, 13% of the area is characterized by low productivity, 6% medium and 3% high. Currently, about 11% of all land is plowed up, another 24% is used for pastures. There are several thermal zones, each of which is characterized by a specific set of crop and livestock industries:

The cold belt occupies vast areas in the north of Eurasia and North America. Agriculture here is limited by lack of heat and permafrost. Plant growing here is possible only in closed ground conditions, and reindeer husbandry is developing on low-productive pastures.

The cool belt covers vast areas of Eurasia and North America, as well as a narrow strip in the south of the Andes in South America. Insignificant heat resources limit the range of crops that can be grown here (early crops - brown bread, vegetables, some root crops, early potatoes).

The temperate zone in the southern hemisphere is represented in Patagonia, on the coast of Chile, the islands of Tasmania and New Zealand, and in the northern hemisphere it occupies almost all of Europe (except for the southern peninsulas, southern Siberia and the Far East, Mongolia, Tibet, northeast China, south Canada, north eastern states of the USA.This is a zone of mass farming.Arable land occupies almost all the territories suitable for the relief, its specific area reaches 60-70%.There is a wide range of cultivated crops: wheat, barley, rye, oats, flax, potatoes, vegetables. the southern part of the belt grows corn, sunflower, rice, grapes, fruit and fruit trees.Pastures are limited in area, they dominate in the mountains and arid zones, where transhumance and camel breeding are developed.

The warm belt corresponds to the subtropical geographical zone and is represented on all continents except Antarctica: it covers the Mediterranean, most of the United States, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, southern Africa and Australia, and southern China. Two crops are grown here a year: in winter - crops of the temperate zone (cereals, vegetables), in summer - tropical annuals (cotton) or perennials (olive tree, citrus fruits, tea, walnuts, figs, etc.). It is dominated by low-productive, highly degraded pastures from uncontrolled grazing.

The hot belt occupies vast expanses of Africa, South America, northern and central Australia, the Malay Archipelago, the Arabian Peninsula, and South Asia. Coffee and chocolate trees, date palm, sweet potato, cassava, etc. are grown.

1.3 The role of agriculture in the modern world economy

Agriculture is not only the oldest and most dependent on natural conditions branch of the economy, but also the way of life of most of the world's population.

Agriculture is the most extensive vital branch of the national economy, which determines the standard of living of people.

Agricultural economics studies technological (agriculture, crop production, agrochemistry, land reclamation, mechanization and electrification, animal husbandry, storage and processing of agricultural products, and others) and economic (mathematics, political science, labor protection, accounting) sciences.

Economics of agriculture provides a basis for the study of disciplines: organization of agricultural production, analysis economic activity, financing and lending, agricultural production management, international economic relations, agricultural risks and others.

The study of science is based on the dialectical method, which involves the study of the process of development in a state of continuous movement of change. For the analysis of economic material, use various methods economic research: statistical (correlation, dispersion, index, regression), monographic, economic and mathematical, graphic and others.

Agriculture is a donor for other sectors of the economy, a source of replenishment of the national income for solving the country's urgent problems. The basic national economic proportions and the growth of the entire country's economy largely depend on the state and rate of development of agriculture.

In the early stages of the economic history of mankind, the natural conditions of the territory - climate, relief, soil fertility - played a decisive role in the formation of local features of agricultural production (a set of cultivated crops, types of domestic animals, agricultural practices).

The economic skills of the population, the achieved level of socio-economic development, the conditions of international trade only later turned out to be decisive for the formation of local socio-economic differences in the territories involved in the world economy.

The role of agriculture in the economy of a country or region shows its structure and level of development. As indicators of the role of agriculture, the share of those employed in agriculture among the economically active population, as well as the share of agriculture in the structure of GDP, is used. These figures are quite high in most developing countries, where more than half of EAN is employed in agriculture. Agriculture there follows an extensive path of development, that is, an increase in production is achieved by expanding the area under crops, increasing the number of livestock, and increasing the number of people employed in agriculture. In such countries, whose economies are of the agrarian type, the indicators of mechanization, chemicalization, melioration, etc. are low.

The agriculture of the developed countries of Europe and North America, which have entered the post-industrial stage, has reached the highest level. In agriculture, 2-6% of EAN are employed there. In these countries, the "green revolution" took place as early as the middle of the 20th century, agriculture is characterized by a scientifically based organization, increased productivity, the use of new technologies, agricultural machine systems, pesticides and mineral fertilizers, using genetic engineering and biotechnology, robotics and electronics, that is, it is developing along an intensive path.

Similar progressive changes are also taking place in industrial countries, but the level of intensification in them is still much lower, and the share of people employed in agriculture is higher than in post-industrial ones.

At the same time, in developed countries there is a crisis of food overproduction, and in agrarian countries, on the contrary, one of the most acute problems is the food problem (the problem of malnutrition and hunger).

Global agriculture currently employs about 1.1 billion economically active population (EAP). And the agricultural industries provide food for billions of people. Agriculture is not only the oldest and most dependent on natural conditions branch of the economy, it is also the most extensive vital branch of the national economy, which determines the standard of living of people.
Chapter 2. The main trends in the development of agriculture in the world economy

2.1 Problems of agricultural development

First of all, it is necessary to characterize common features inherent in the current stage of development of agriculture in developing countries.

Scientific selection, the creation of high-yielding hybrid varieties of cereals have led to an increase in agricultural production in a number of developing countries. Other factors of the "Green Revolution" also contributed to this (a certain increase in the use of fertilizers, the expansion of irrigation works, an increase in mechanization, an increase in the qualifications of a part of the employed labor force, etc.). But they covered only a small part of the territory of the states participating in the "green revolution".

The main reason for the difficulties of these countries in the development of agriculture lies in the backwardness of their agrarian relations. So, for a number of states Latin America characterized by latifundia - extensive private land holdings that form the basis of farms of the landowner type. In most countries of Asia and Africa, along with large farms owned by local and foreign capital, farms of the feudal and semi-feudal type are widespread, in a number of countries even with remnants of tribal relations. Communal landownership, which has its roots in ancient times, deserves special mention in this regard.

The motley and backward character of agrarian relations is combined with survivals in the sphere of social organization, the enormous influence of the institution of tribal and intertribal leaders, the wide spread of animism and various other beliefs. It is necessary to take into account many socio-psychological characteristics of the local population, in particular, the widespread consumerist, unproductive mentality. Remnants of the colonial past of many of these states are also having an effect.

The peculiarities of the agrarian system and other factors have led to the fact that the agriculture of many developing countries cannot satisfy their food needs. To date, the proportion of the population that does not receive the necessary nutrition remains very large.

Although the absolute and relative number of people suffering from malnutrition has declined, the total number of undernourished people remains enormous. According to various estimates, their number in the world is about 1 billion people. 20 million people die every year from malnutrition alone in developing countries.

Traditional diets in a number of countries do not contain enough calories, often do not have the required amount of proteins and fats. Their shortage affects people's health and the quality of the workforce. These trends are especially acute in the countries of South and East Asia.

The difficult situation with the development of agriculture and difficulties in providing food determine the problem of food security for many developing countries. The latter refers to the constant consumption of a sufficient amount of food to support the active life of people. The experts of the UN specialized organization FAO consider the world stocks from the last harvest equal to 17% of world consumption or sufficient to meet the needs for about two months to be the minimum level for ensuring food security.

Calculations by UN experts have shown that a significant part of developing countries have a very low self-sufficiency ratio. 24 states had a very low level of food security, 22 of them were African. The aggravation of the situation in a number of developing countries has necessitated the adoption of measures aimed at alleviating the food problem. An important tool for reducing the problem of hunger was food aid, that is, the transfer of resources on the terms of soft loans or in the form of gratuitous gifts.

Major food aid deliveries go to the least the developed countries Africa, Asia and Latin America. The main supplier is the USA. In recent years, the role of the EU countries has been growing, especially in relation to the least developed African and Asian states.
2.2 Agricultural development trends

The data discussed above testify to the great achievements of world agriculture and, at the same time, to the considerable difficulties and contradictions in its modern development. According to the calculations of Russian specialists, agricultural production in the world increased from $415 billion in 1900 to $580 billion in 1929, $645 billion in 1938, $760 billion in 1950, and $2475 billion in 2000. The hierarchy of agricultural producers among developed countries in 2000 looked as follows: the United States was in first place with a volume of agricultural production of $175 billion; fourth - Germany - 52.5 billion dollars.

Although the world now produces more food than ever before, approximately 1 billion people, as already noted, are constantly hungry.

Mankind is looking for an optimal solution to the food problem. If we focus on the current level of nutrition of a US resident, then in 2030 there will be enough food resources for only 2.5 billion people, and the world's population by this time will be; amount to approximately 8.9 billion. And if we take the average consumption rates of the beginning of the 21st century, then by this time the modern level of India will be reached (450 g of grain per day per person). The redistribution of food resources can escalate into political conflicts.

Economists rightly consider unacceptable the spontaneity of the development of relations in the sphere of production, consumption and redistribution of food. Concerted action and the development of an international development strategy are needed. It contains four main areas.

The first is the expansion of the land fund. On the present stage humanity uses effectively on average about 0.34 hectares of arable land per person. But there are considerable reserves, and theoretically, one earthling has 4.69 hectares of land. Due to this reserve, the areas used in agriculture can actually be increased. But, firstly, the reserves are still limited, and secondly, part of the earth's surface is difficult to use or simply unsuitable for agricultural processing. And besides, for the operation to increase the area will require a lot of money.

As a result, the second direction is becoming much more important - increasing economic opportunities by increasing the efficiency of agricultural production. Scientists have calculated that if advanced technologies were used on all the areas now used, then at the present time agriculture could feed at least 12 billion people. But the reserves of efficiency achieved could continue to increase, in particular through the use of various biotechnologies and further progress in the development of genetics.

But the real way to raise economic efficiency can become only subject to the expansion of social opportunities. This is the third direction of the development strategy, the main task of which is to carry out deep and consistent agrarian reforms in developing countries, taking into account the specific conditions in each of them. The purpose of the reforms is to overcome the backwardness of the existing agrarian structures. Wherein Special attention it is necessary to pay attention to the elimination of the negative consequences associated with the wide spread of primitive communal relations in a number of African countries, latifundism in Latin American countries, and the fragmentation of small peasant farms in Asian states.

When carrying out agrarian reforms, it is advisable to widely use the positive experience gained in developed countries, in particular, to improve the role of the state in the development of agriculture, especially by subsidizing the use of the latest technologies, various support for small and medium-sized farms, etc. The problem of cooperation deserves great attention, while ensuring its voluntary nature, variety of forms and material incentives participants.

One of the objectives of social reforms, combined with measures to improve economic efficiency, is to reduce the consumption gap between different groups of countries.

Obviously improvement state activities also affects the sphere of population reproduction, the growth of which can be more regulated using a variety of means.

And, finally, the fourth direction could be international cooperation and assistance from developed countries to the least developed. The purpose of this cooperation is not only to solve the most acute problems of food shortages, but also to stimulate the internal capabilities of developing states. And for this they need comprehensive assistance in developing not only the economy, but also education, healthcare, various branches of science and culture.
Chapter 3. Opportunities and priorities for the development of world agriculture

3.1 Prospects for the development of agriculture in the world

Looking to the future, we want to understand: is humanity threatened - in the near or distant future - by mass starvation, if one billion people are already suffering from it, according to the UN? Will agriculture have enough land, water and other natural resources to meet the food needs of every inhabitant of the planet at a level of at least 2,700 kcal per day? Can agricultural innovation withstand dangerous climate change and the vagaries of nature? Finally, what kind of agricultural policy should the world community and each country develop in order to ensure highly efficient, sustainable agriculture?

Long-range forecast calculations, jointly developed by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and FAO, provide an estimate of markets for basic agricultural products 10 years into the future. If we accept as a hypothesis that in the longer term the same trends and the degree of influence of various factors on each other will continue, then it is possible to construct a scenario for the development of the situation in world agriculture based on existing forecasts.

There are several options for forecasting the development of world and Russian agriculture for the period up to 2050. Four hypotheses were put forward as prerequisites for this forecast.

First. The sown area under the main agricultural crops (wheat, corn, rice) will not decrease, but will even increase. This is one of the main lessons that all countries must learn from the food crisis in 2007-2009. Otherwise, many countries and humanity as a whole doom themselves to the constant repetition of such crises.

Second. In all countries, more and more resources will be spent on the introduction of the achievements of scientific and technological progress in agriculture, which will increase the efficiency of the use of resources, primarily land and water.

Third. Developing countries in many regions will increase their protein intake at the expense of meat and dairy products. It follows from this that an increasing share of the grown plant resources will be used for fodder.

Fourth. In most countries, the trend will continue to use agricultural resources primarily for food purposes. The only exceptions will be those countries where there are special natural and political conditions that allow them to efficiently use land resources for the production of biofuels. These countries include, first of all, the USA (ethanol from corn), Brazil (ethanol from sugar cane) and, in the future, a number of countries in Southeast Asia that will be able to master efficient production biodiesel from palm oil.

What and how much humanity will eat. Wheat production is projected at 806 million tons by 2020 (an increase of 18% compared to 2008), and in 2050 - 950 million tons (an increase of 40% compared to 2008). Over the same period, according to UN forecasts, The population will increase by about 30-35%. Consequently, the per capita supply of grain in the wheat segment may slightly increase.

In developing countries, an increase in the share of imports in total wheat consumption from 24-26% to 30% can be expected due to the increasing use of wheat in animal husbandry. The highest production growth rates are projected in the least developed countries (2.8 times in 2050 compared to 2008). Only in this case they will be able to reduce their dependence on imports from 60% to 50%. However, this level cannot be considered normal. Certain actions are needed on the part of developed countries that could help increase wheat production directly in this group of states.

Now we present some results of forecasting the development of the dairy and meat industries. It is estimated that world milk production will increase at a rate faster than population growth. By 2050, world milk production may reach 1222 million tons, which is almost 80% higher than in 2008. Developing countries should make the greatest contribution to this increase, in which production will increase by almost 2.25 times. However, even in the distant future, the gap in the productivity of dairy farming between developed and developing civilizations will remain significant. Developed countries should make some efforts to accelerate the introduction of technological progress in the dairy industry of developing countries. In developing countries, some reduction in the number of cows can be expected with a significant increase in their productivity. This will solve two problems: to increase the production of plant-based food resources available to the population, and to increase the share of milk protein in the diet of the poor.

The most acute and complex problem remains the production of meat, which is the main factor in improving the nutrition of the world's population.

Forecast calculations show that by 2050 the production and consumption of beef may increase by more than 60%, pork - by 77%, poultry meat - 2.15 times. The rate of growth in meat production may exceed the rate of population growth. The possibility of outstripping growth of the meat industry in developing countries, which will be able to meet domestic demand through own production. In the least developed countries, under these assumptions, it can be predicted that a significant part of the demand for beef and pork will be met by domestic production, while 40% of poultry meat consumption will be covered by imports.

The presented forecasts for the production of the main types of agricultural products suggest that if agriculture is transferred to an innovative, resource-saving development trajectory over the foreseeable 40-year period, the threat of a protracted global food crisis can be significantly reduced. An even more urgent problem for the world community is to overcome the terrible threat of famine.

Various forecasts of food consumption in the world indicate an increase in its level per capita. However, this growth will slow down. For 30 years (from 1970 to 2000) food consumption in the world (in energy equivalent) increased from 2411 to 2789 kcal per person per day, i.e. the increase was 16% or 0.48% on average per year. According to the forecast for 2001 - 2030, consumption will increase to 2950 kcal, but the increase over 30 years will be only 9% or 0.28% on average per year.

By 2050, consumption is projected to increase to the level of 3130 kcal per person per day, and the increase over 20 years will be 3% or 0.15% per year. At the same time, developing countries will increase consumption 5-6 times faster than developed countries. Thanks to such dynamics, the difference in the level of food consumption between different civilizations will be reduced, which should become the basis for a more harmonious and socially stable development of mankind.

Currently, only half of the population is provided with the possibility of good nutrition. 30 years ago this category included only 4% of the population. By the middle of the century, about 90% of the world's population will be able to consume food at a level of more than 2,700 kcal per day per capita.

Achieving such production parameters is a super-task for world agriculture, given that the transition to an innovative development path is associated with high costs and risks.
3.2 Prospects for the development of agriculture in Russia

According to the dynamics of the development of markets for the main types of food, calculations were made for Russia. All forecast indicators were calculated for a ten-year horizon from 2009 to 2018. A feature of this forecast is that it used macroeconomic assumptions that were calculated by the World Bank for all countries of the world.

When compiling the forecast, the hypothesis was used that in the next 10 years the GDP growth rate in Russia will be at the level of 4.5%. (The global crisis has already made adjustments to these and other macroeconomic estimates. Nevertheless, the presented forecast indicates the objective potential of the Russian agricultural sector).

In accordance with the calculations made according to the baseline forecast, wheat production in Russia will gradually increase and reach 54 million tons by 2018. This assessment is largely related to the hypothesis of low yield growth rates (20 c/ha by 2018). At the same time, the average export volumes in the first half of the forecast period will decrease to 8 million tons, and then grow to 12 million in 2018. However, according to the estimates of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture and many Russian experts, yield growth will occur at a faster pace, which will ensure large volumes of wheat production and its export.

An increase in the production of all types of meat is predicted. By 2018 general production meat will grow to 8.5 million tons (in slaughter weight), including: beef - 2.0 million tons, pork - 3.2 million tons, poultry meat - 3.4 million tons. production growth is predicted to reduce imports for all types of meat. The largest reduction is estimated for pork, where the value of imports by 2018 will be only 130 thousand tons. Beef imports will decrease to 480 thousand tons, and for poultry meat - up to 1100 thousand. import of meat. Currently, there are already expert assessments in Russia that suggest that there will be no need to import pork and poultry meat after 2012.

Forecasts for the development of the dairy sector are based on the hypothesis that existing conservative trends will continue. By 2018, milk production will increase only to the level of 40 million tons. At the same time, the number of dairy cows will increase slightly (up to 10 million head), milk yield will be about 3900 kg per cow per year. Russian experts believe that the implementation government programs aimed at supporting the dairy sector, will be able to change the situation in this industry, which will reach higher levels.

These are some of the results of predicting the dynamics and structural changes in the agrarian sector of the Russian Federation. Russia has a powerful competitive advantage: vast lands, including the most fertile chernozems, availability of water resources, a variety of natural and climatic zones and agricultural landscapes from north to south and from west to east. The main problems of the agricultural sector of the country's economy are technological backwardness in many industries and regions; chronic disparity in prices for agricultural products and means for their production; undeveloped social infrastructure of the village, which leads to the outflow of the rural population in many regions of the Russian Federation. However, according to international and Russian scientific centers, in the near future it is the agricultural sector of Russia that will become one of the main locomotives of the economy due to the modernization of agriculture and its transition to an innovative development path.
CONCLUSION

Agriculture remains one of the leading branches of material production in the world economy. Across the land, the quality of productive land varies significantly. Soil fertility depends on many natural factors. A survey conducted by the FAO found that on the prevailing part of the land, natural factors limit the possibility of farming.

The globalization of the economy, with all its contradictions and distortions, has the potential for the development of environmentally friendly and cost-effective agriculture. It is able to mitigate the global food crisis and prevent its worst form - mass starvation with millions of human victims. This requires the development of long-term forecasts for the food supply of the world's population, as well as programs for the development of the agro-industrial complex and food markets by country and region. Of particular importance in these programs should be the development and development of resource-saving technologies in all areas of activity related to the food supply of the population.

Russia has chosen the path of large-scale modernization of food production using resource-saving technologies, greening the agricultural sector, using the full potential of breeding and genetic research, as well as ensuring the sustainable development of rural areas. Sufficiently high level of provision of the agricultural sector natural resources becomes a strategic competitive advantage for Russia in the medium term.

In the meantime, on the basis of an assessment of the agro-natural potential, it can be concluded that in general, in the third world countries, with a low level of investment, 1 ha can feed - 0.61 people, with an intermediate level - 2.1 people, with a high level - 5.05.

If the low level of investment in agriculture continues, then in the coming years, out of 117 developing countries, 64 states will already be classified as critical, i.e. their population will not be provided with food according to FAO and WHO standards.

A serious danger to humanity also lies in the impoverishment of the natural gene pool. This is due to the reduction of cultivated species and varieties used in the village. X. and preferential breeding of the most productive and resistant to any negative influence plants and animals. But the stability of natural biocenoses is primarily in their biodiversity, therefore, in some countries, gene banks are being created, where breeding of various livestock breeds and plant species is supported.

As it turned out, one of the most dangerous impacts for the ecological balance is also related to agriculture. the introduction of new species (for example, the fauna of Australia has suffered greatly from the importation of sheep, rabbits, etc.).

It should also be noted that the active introduction into practice of the latest achievements in agricultural biotechnology - genetically modified species of plants and animals - is fraught with harm that has not yet been fully investigated and recognized by the world economic community.
LIST OF USED LITERATURE

Akopova E.S., Voronkova O.N., Gavrilko N.N. World economy and international economic relations / Under the general editorship of prof. IN AND. Samofalova. - Rostov-on-Don, 2007.

Bastova M.T. Investment process in agriculture. // Agrarian science. – 2008 #4

Bykov A. Activation of the investment process at agricultural enterprises. // APK: economics and management. – 2007 #2

Vanin Yu. Prospects for investing in the development of the grain industry. // APK: economics and management. – 2008 #6

World Development Report 2008. Agriculture for Development. - M.: Ves Mir, 2008. - 424 p.

Zaruk N.F. Features of investment policy in integrated agricultural formations. // Economics of agriculture and processing enterprises. – 2007 #11

Korobeinikov M.M. Ways to improve the process of investing in agriculture.// ECO. – 2008 #12

Lomakin V.K. World economy. Textbook for universities. – M.: Unity, 2007.

Maletsky E.G. Place and role of investments in the agricultural sector. // Achievements of science and technology in the agro-industrial complex. – 2007 #7

Maletsky E.G. On the role of investments in improving the efficiency of agriculture.// Economics of agriculture and processing enterprises. – 2008 #9

Mazolev V.Z. Gasiev P.E. Formation of investment policy in the agro-industrial complex. // Economics of agriculture and processing enterprises. – 2008 #11

World economy / Edited by prof. A.S. Bulatov. – M.: Jurist, 2009.

Murashev A.S. Foreign investment in the agro-industrial complex. // Dairy industry. – 2007 #4

Nukhovich E.S., Smitienko B.M., Eskindarov M.A. World economy at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries. - M.: Financial Academy, 2008.

Parakhin Yu. Investments in the agro-industrial complex: state and prospects. // APK: economics, management. – 2008 #10

Puzakova E.P. World economy. – Rostov-on-Don: Phoenix, 2008.

Sergunov V.S. Aidukov T.V. Target investment programs in the agro-industrial complex. // Food industry. – 2007 #10, #11

Spiridonova I.A. World economy. Tutorial. – M.: Infra-M, 2007.

Topsakhalova F.M. Improving the investment mechanism as a condition for increasing the attractiveness of agriculture. // Finance and credit. – 2008 #1

Tkachev A. The mechanism of investment management of agricultural production. // Economy of agricultural Russia. – 2007 #6

Urusov V. Budget efficiency of investment projects of the regional agro-industrial complex. // APK: economics and management. – 2008 #12

Khalevinskaya E.D., Crozet I. World Economy: Textbook. - M.: Jurist, 2008.

Economy of the world. The main directions of agriculture and industry of the world economy. Global problems of mankind. - M.: AST - 2008. - 32 p.

THEM. sweet clover

Information is provided on the problems that the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) faces in its daily work: on the development of FSTP programs, on the features of merging, optimizing and reorganizing scientific institutions, on the participation of researchers in international and Russian science citation databases, and on public-private partnerships as a new form of interaction between science and business.

Key words: RAS, FASO, RSCI, agricultural education, public-private partnership, science.

In 2013, the Federal Agency for Scientific Organizations of Russia (FANO) was created, the purpose of which is to legal regulation and providing public services in the field of science, education, healthcare and agro-industrial complex, as well as the management of federal property under the jurisdiction of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Currently, the RAS and FASO have a working relationship.

FASO goes to a joint discussion of various projects, coordinates them with the Academy of Sciences, in particular, Comprehensive Plan scientific research(KPNI) and others. However, it is not always possible to find a consensus on changing the heads of organizations, since the right to such a change is assigned to FASO, and the Russian Academy of Sciences only agrees on the candidacy of a new leader at the last stage. When an interim director is appointed, this candidacy has not yet been approved by the Russian Academy of Sciences. Therefore, this prefix to the position can be maintained for several years, and then a new person can be approved, forming new team specialists . At the same time, the frequent change of directors is detrimental to scientific schools that have been created for many years and developed by an already formed team.

From this point of view, the amendments introduced by the President of the Russian Federation V. V. Putin to the law on the Russian Academy of Sciences, which is under consideration in the State Duma, that both acting and permanent directors, as well as any restructuring and reorganization of scientific institutions, must be coordinated with the Russian Academy of Sciences are quite reasonable and logical.

M. M. Kotyukov, head of FASO, has an extremely positive attitude towards agricultural science, which he repeatedly emphasized in his speeches. Representatives of the Russian Academy of Sciences are members of various FASO interdepartmental groups, work on the provisions of new programs and projects.

However, it is worth noting that not all of the experience that scientists have is used to the full extent today. Previously, sections from research institutes on certain topics (in particular, vegetable growing, potato growing and melon growing) were constantly gathered at the Russian Academy of Sciences, where they discussed problems, exchanged experience and developed collective solutions, but since 2013 this practice has ceased. It was an invaluable experience when, in the presence of directors and leading academic participants sessions reviewed the achievements of each institution. In addition, it was also simple and effective tool making informed decisions in a number of industries, a way to adjust government assignments, etc.

The function of the Russian Academy of Sciences is now mainly expert. Today, more than 1800 reports are under examination in the Russian Academy of Sciences at the OSKhN. The resumption of the practice of discussing the achievements of agricultural institutions is still at the stage of discussion, which is constantly postponed due to the workload on the examination of reports. To date, only the storage and processing department has been able to conduct such a section and, according to their feedback, they are very satisfied with the results.

In the immediate plans of agricultural science - reforming the system of state assignments, on the recommendation and at the request, is approved by the FASO. Today, it is the institute that forms the state task, and now it is proposed, within the framework of the general CPNI, to develop a common vision of the problem and already distribute state tasks for it. For example, it turned out that 90% of institutes are engaged in the creation of new varieties and hybrids, but almost none of them are involved in related technologies and even marketing. That's why we lose Western countries: each university or institute develops one thing, and we are unable to consider everything in a complex. In addition to the hybrid, it is necessary to develop agricultural technology for its cultivation, storage and processing, as well as a program to promote it to the market. Otherwise, he will simply be “buried” in reports that are of no interest to anyone.

A foreign company, in addition to a variety or a hybrid, offers a whole range of related products: fertilizers, irrigation systems, equipment and specialists who will control. It is not surprising that many farm managers prefer foreign breeding achievements, ignoring domestic ones.

As for the influence of the Russian Academy of Sciences on the formation of the Federal Scientific and Technical Program for the Development of Agriculture for 2017–2025 (FSTP), a draft report to the President and the government on this topic was discussed not so long ago. We joined the potato and sugar beet breeding programs proposed by FASO already at the stage of discussion and their implementation. Programs are being prepared for vegetable growing, storage and processing, and for agricultural machinery, where, I hope, the Russian Academy of Sciences will be able to take part in the earlier stages of their development, and not only at the last.

Now councils are being formed on the strategy of scientific and technological development of Russia, including on agriculture. In the council, a third is necessarily given to business, a third to federal executive authorities (FANO, the Ministry of Agriculture, Rospotrebnadzor, Rosselkhoznadzor, etc.) and a third to scientists directly. The function of the councils is to select promising projects for the FSTP. Already have working programm for the FSTP and three approved subprogrammes (notably for potatoes). Thus, the role of the Russian Academy of Sciences in the formation of the FSTP should gradually increase.

Another aspect of FANO's work is the creation of federal centers. As such, the initiative was global and reasonable, for example, when the issue of creating a large genetic center based on the Institute of Cytology and Genetics of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences was decided. This is one side of the coin. But there is a downside: not all centers have become operational for a number of reasons. Example: one non-core organization is taken and connected with another, say, the South Ural Research Institute of Horticulture and Potato Growing, a horticulture station, the Ural and Kurgan Scientific Research Institute of Agriculture and the Ural Research Veterinary Institute. I doubt this link will work. On the one hand, the unification took place according to the territorial principle, but on the other hand, it has three constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Not every governor will want to give objects on his territory to the jurisdiction of another region. In addition, objects with different directions are combined. Based on my own experience, I can say: wherever veterinary medicine is combined with something else, veterinary medicine goes by the wayside. We previously had 17 specialized veterinary organizations, but almost all of them merged into these centers and most of them gradually closed. Initially, they became the level of the department, which is later reduced to 1-2 people. Many of these departments are in limbo, thinking: will they cut it or not? How can one even think about science under such conditions? The formation of scientific centers was in some cases hasty, not fully justified. But, alas, the opinion of the Russian Academy of Sciences was taken into account here only at the final stages.

A systemic issue for the Russian Academy of Sciences is postgraduate study. The idea is that university graduates prepare a thematic qualifying work, and then, in graduate school, it is already developing, building up and getting a finished dissertation. Today, we have a highly formalized process of postgraduate study - before, three or four subjects were studied, and now up to forty. Of course, there is simply no time left for research. But this is a problem not only of the Russian Academy of Sciences, but of all educational and scientific institutions where there is a postgraduate course. The requirements for postgraduate study at research institutes have now become tougher, the package of documents for its support has increased, which can lead to the fact that many refuse to train postgraduate students altogether. And while no changes are expected, most likely, the process of training in graduate and master's programs will only become tougher in the future. Quality requirements are determined by Russia's obligations in the Bologna Process, which our country joined in 2003. Previously, in the absence of, for example, one security question in some particular discipline was not perceived as a major mistake, time was given for correction, and now all this has turned out to be an important reason for the withdrawal of a license by supervisory authorities. Now, even for the absence of one word that does not distort the essence of the phrase, large penalties can be imposed. All this in the future will lead to the fact that after some time there will be a shortage of highly qualified personnel already in the research institutes themselves.

Many agricultural scientists also found themselves in the focus of other innovations. Now special attention is paid to indicators of scientific work, namely, the number of scientific articles. It is not easy to measure the work of a scientist, but so far nothing better has been invented.

Currently, attempts are underway to create a domestic science citation index, but very high requirements are also set here so that in the future it will be taken into account abroad. The bar here is initially set very high, and therefore not everything goes smoothly. At the same time, there are different opinions about whether scientists should abandon publications in other databases (Scopus, Web of Science, etc.), switching only to domestic ones. Recently, the quality of our publications has increased significantly, so many of our authors get there without any problems. Another question is what we lose in translation into English language, because international bases are most often in English. The position of many officials is that a scientist without articles in international databases is not a scientist. But I want to emphasize that the work of a breeder is really difficult to measure with the Hirsch index, it is more appropriate to talk about newly created hybrids or starting material. It is often more difficult for representatives of the agricultural department to bring their research into an international orbit. It is unlikely that the journal Nature will be interested in growing potatoes in the Urals, which is why it is important not only to create our own Russian science citation index, but also to include existing pages. - X. publications in foreign bases. And for this, it is necessary to multiply the level of their information content and their rating in the eyes of the world community, which takes a long time.

In the West, a lot of money is being invested in science, and public-private partnerships between large companies and the state are being popularized. However, adopting this method, we need to take into account that any science consists of fundamental science, research and applied (implementation). If at the stage of research or implementation almost any business is ready to get involved in financing, then fundamental science remains outside the brackets - the prospects for such research are too uncertain. Breeders and seed growers can benefit here. What is reasonable is what the Ministry of Agriculture proposes as part of the implementation of the FSTP: to announce a competition for projects related to the cultivation and processing of potatoes, to select 26 projects. The state will allocate funding to them, and business will receive money, but only if it cooperates with scientific organizations or finances their developments. The Ministry of Agriculture also promises concessional lending and subsidies for such projects. But this is only the beginning of the journey and it is too early to draw conclusions.

As you know, only those individuals of the population that are better adapted to the conditions survive. environment. A well-known parallel can be drawn: the faster we adapt to scientific citation indexes, basic research, reports, etc., the better for ourselves. And, of course, with all the reforms, it is imperative to preserve the scientific schools that have developed today. This is the key to the successful development of Russian science in the future. One of the main roles in maintaining scientific continuity, I think, should be played by the Timiryazev Academy, which combines a number of the strongest research schools and serious potential for theoretical and practical training of highly qualified specialists in all areas of agriculture.

I would like to see an understanding of what kind of science Russia needs in the near future? In this regard, the development of agricultural science causes some optimism, since it organically combines all three components and a high potential for use in the national economy.

Bibliographic list

1. Order of the Federal Agency scientific organizations dated 07.03.2018 No. 51 “On approval of candidates for the positions of heads of scientific organizations subordinated to Federal agency scientific organizations” [Electronic resource]. URL: http://fano.gov.ru/ru/documents/card/?id_4=67154. Date of access: 03/15/18.
2. On the approval of the Federal Scientific and Technical Program for the Development of Agriculture for 2017–2025 [Electronic resource]. URL: http://government.ru/docs/29004. Date of access: 03/19/18.
3. Federal Scientific and Technical Program for the Development of Agriculture for 2017–2025 [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.rosinformagrotech.ru/fntp. Date of access: 03/20/18.
4. Ovchinnikov A. S., Tseplyaev A. N., Fomin S. D. RSCI: what to strive for? // Proceedings of the Nizhnevolzhsky agro-university complex: science and higher professional education. 2011. No. 2. P. 268–275.
5. Klimenko N. N. Public-private partnership is the most effective way to develop domestic seed production of vegetable crops // Potatoes and vegetables. 2018. No. 3. P. 2-4.

Donnik Irina Mikhailovna, doctor of biol. Sci., Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vice-President of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Curator of the Department of Agricultural Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences.Email: [email protected]

Prospects of development of the Russian agricultural science

I.M. Donnik, DSc., member of the RAS, vice-president of the RAS, curator of the department of agricultural sciences of the RAS.
Email: [email protected]

Summary: The article describes the current problems and challenges faced by the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) in their daily work: the development of programs of FNTP, the modern challenges that lie behind the unification and reorganization of institutions, the participation of scientists in international and Russian bases of scientific citation and public-private partnership as a new form of interaction between science and business.

Keywords: RAS, FANO, RSCI, agricultural education, public-private partnership, science.

2018-01-25 Igor Novitsky

State programs for the development of agriculture: modern realities

25.04.2016, 16:51 Analytics

The agro-industrial complex is one of the most important branches of the Russian economy: it concentrates about 13% of the main production capacities, 14% of labor resources, and produces about 6% of the gross domestic product. Recently, in the Russian Federation, special attention has been paid to the development of the agricultural complex, since the organization of food security and the formation of an effective agro-industrial complex are the basis of the country's stability.

State program for the development of agriculture and regulation for 2013-2020

• have a well-written business plan;
• provide a cash expenditure plan indicating planned acquisitions and prices for such expenditures;
• have own funds in the amount of at least 10% of the subsidy amount;
• creation of at least 3 jobs;
• after receiving state subsidies to carry out farming activities at least 5 years;
• the funds received must be spent for the intended purpose within 24 months after their receipt.

In addition to subsidies, the state also provided for the possibility of credit support for beginning farmers. Thus, Rosselkhozbank OJSC offers to use a special loan product at 8.5% per annum. Thanks to the operation of such a loyal lending program, those who are just taking their first steps in farming can use a loan program in the amount of up to 15 million rubles, the repayment period should not exceed 10 years.

As practice shows, such financial support from the state allows any farm within 5 years to turn into a successful agricultural enterprise that makes a profit.

Grants in action: how to succeed in business?

Active farms with state support (subsidies) for this stage are developing in the Leningrad region. About 1,000 peasant and farm enterprises are successfully operating here today.

The state program to support beginner farmers has been successfully implemented in the Leningrad region since 2012. During these five years, 110 farms and 68 family-type livestock enterprises received grants. About 750 million rubles have been allocated from the federal and regional budgets for gratuitous subsidies. In the last 3 years alone, the total volume of products produced by farmers in the region has almost doubled. According to the results of work for 2015, the volume of the gross product reached 2.5 billion rubles.

In the Kingisepp district, they were able to appreciate the state support provided with the allocation of grants. So, in April 2016, another agricultural facility appeared here - a livestock farm for 800 sheep, the creation of which became possible thanks to a grant allocated under the livestock development program. It is noteworthy that the capacity of the farm enterprise is designed to produce at least 20 tons of meat per year.

The farm of Anatoly Similyan received a state subsidy in 2014, which made it possible to receive financial support in the amount of 6.9 million rubles. During the implementation of the project, a sheep farm building with an area of ​​1.2 thousand square meters was erected. meters, new equipment was purchased (cremator, drinkers and feeders), the slaughterhouse was fully equipped, the livestock was replenished with 180 elite breeds of ewes.

During the implementation of the project, it was possible to double the number of sheep (from 400 to 800 heads), purchase 100 bulls for fattening. Today, this farm actively sells beef and lamb to the population of St. Petersburg and the region through its own trading facilities. The unique agricultural enterprise of Anatoly Similian is among the 20 leaders in Russia. The experience of this farm is recommended for study and implementation in all regions of the Russian Federation.

The development of agricultural (and food) production in Russia is taking place against the backdrop of a favorable global environment and improved economic conditions in the agricultural sector through the implementation of the priority national project "Development of the Agro-Industrial Complex".

The measures taken in recent years aimed at improving the socio-economic situation in the agrarian sector have made it possible to form a trend in the growth of production and increase the efficiency of agricultural production. The average annual growth rate for the five years from 2003 to 2007 was 102.7 percent.

Significant changes have taken place in macroeconomic policy. Credit resources have become more accessible to agricultural producers, and investment activity in agriculture has increased. The average annual investment growth rate over the five-year period was 122.5 percent.

The factors limiting development were the low level of energy and capital-labor ratio, chemicalization, insufficient level of agrotechnical culture, shortage of qualified specialists, underdeveloped infrastructure of the domestic market (silos, slaughterhouses, etc.).

Among the factors potentially contributing to successful development sectors in the near term, it should be noted:

The expansion of demand, including technological demand, for fodder crops significantly increases the commercial prospects of domestic agriculture, since low-quality crops are much more suitable for growing in risky farming zones, which make up the bulk of the land fund reserve;

Rising prices on world markets increases the competitiveness of domestic agricultural products and provides financial opportunities for mass technological modernization of the agro-industrial complex;

No restrictions on crop area - significant crop areas in the eastern part of the country have not yet been developed, which provides additional resources in case of an increase in food demand.

The search for new technologies for the production of biofuels (both first and next generations) gives research in the field of energy and agrotechnologies in Russia an additional commercial impetus;

The food industry over the past five years has also demonstrated stable growth dynamics, supported by growing consumer demand, investment attractiveness of the sector, expansion of export opportunities and development of the raw material base. The average annual growth rate of food production for 2003-2007 was 105.4 percent. As in agriculture, individual segments of the industry showed different dynamics. Acceleration of growth rates, especially in 2005-2006, was observed in the development of sugar beet sector, oil and fat, meat segment of food.

The most characteristic trends in the development of the food industry are primarily associated with the consolidation of assets, the formation of large companies (for example, the oil and fat sector), as well as the ongoing formation of vertically integrated ties and shocks in the global agri-food markets.

In the structure of Russian food exports, the share of exports of oilseeds decreased with the expansion of export deliveries sunflower oil. Export volumes of flour confectionery, chocolate and products containing cocoa increased.

Despite the fact that the growth of agri-food exports outpaced the growth of imports, Russia still maintains its traditional position as a net importer of food products. Meat supplies still remain the main item of all agri-food imports.

The limited capacity of domestic producers is not yet able to fully satisfy the growing domestic demand due to the growth of household incomes, which may lead to relatively high growth rates of food imports.

In this regard, the main objectives of the state policy in the long term are:

providing the needs of the population with agricultural products and food at the expense of domestic production;

increasing the competitiveness of the domestic agricultural complex, effective import substitution in the livestock market and the creation of a developed export potential (especially in crop production);

improving and increasing the productivity of land and other natural resources used in agricultural production.

In 2020, compared to 2007, the level of food production will increase by 1.9 times.

The gross harvest of grain crops in 2020 may reach at least 120-125 million tons as a result of an increase in yield from 19.8 c/ha in 2007 to at least 26-28 c/ha in 2020 and expansion of their sown areas . At the same time, the potential level of grain production based on the use of intensive technologies and a high agrotechnical culture will allow Russia to become one of the leading exporters in the world grain market.

By 2020, Russia may reach the level of per capita consumption of meat and milk corresponding to the recommended rational norm. Meat production will increase by 1.7 times, milk - by 27%. The share of imports in meat resources will decrease from 34% in 2007 to 12% in 2020, the share of milk imports in resources - from 17% to 12%, respectively. Meat consumption will be almost completely satisfied by domestic production.

Limitations on the development of food production are associated with:

the imperfection of the mechanism of state and, above all, customs and tariff regulation of the food market;

underdeveloped production infrastructure, especially in the meat and dairy sector;

dependence on import supplies of raw materials and fluctuations in world prices;

insufficient development of the raw material base and the persistence of the problem of supplying high-quality raw materials for processing;

incomplete work on the development of technical regulations.

In particular, the main restrictions on the development of the fishery complex are: technological backwardness of production, a high degree of depreciation of fixed assets, low investment attractiveness of the fishing industry, imperfection of legislation on aquatic biological resources, and a high level of poaching.

TO competitive advantage the food industry includes:

rapid and sustainable growth of markets and their large scale, as significant factors in the investment attractiveness of the industry;

renewal of the average for the industry over half of the production capacity;

dynamic development of auxiliary and service industries (tare and packaging, logistics and marketing services).

Depending on the completeness and sequence of the implementation of measures agricultural policy, the level of state support for agricultural producers, the pace of technological renewal of agricultural production and the level of logistical support for the development of agriculture, domestic and external demand for agricultural products, it seems possible to predict two development options.

Table 47 - Factors determining the development of agriculture

activities	growth factors (inertial version)	Additional growth factors (innovative version)
Agriculture	Improving the efficiency of using the potential available in agricultural production. Continuation state support agricultural producers at the current level. Growing demand for agricultural products of processing enterprises and the consumer market. Continued institutional and land reforms. Attracting qualified personnel to the village.	Development and improvement of markets for agricultural products and material and technical resources. Accelerating the pace of mastering new technologies that meet world standards, completing the renewal of the fleet of agricultural machinery and equipment in crop production and animal husbandry. Increasing the volume of investments in fixed assets. Completeness and consistency in the implementation of agricultural policy measures, increasing the level of state support for agricultural producers. Favorable global environment.

The inertial variant of the development of agriculture is characterized by a slow transition from extensive forms of agricultural production to intensive technologies.

By 2020, the growth of manufactured products is projected at the level of 120-125% compared to 2007. The specified indicator of production growth will be achieved in conditions of insufficiently high growth rates of investment opportunities in agriculture and, accordingly, insufficient growth in the material and technical equipment of agricultural production and the development of progressive resource-saving technologies and solving social problems in the countryside.

The innovative option provides for the full implementation of the measures determined by the State Program for the Development of Agriculture and the Regulation of Agricultural Products, Raw Materials and Food Markets for 2008-2012.

It is envisaged to stimulate investments in agriculture by increasing the availability of loans, development institutions that will allow the implementation of large projects on the principles of project financing, the active involvement of financial institutions (Rosagroleasing, Rosselkhozbank, etc.), lending secured by purchased machinery and equipment, breeding products, facilities construction in progress and other mechanisms that facilitate the attraction of investments. For the period from 2008 to 2012, the volume of credit resources allocated for technical and technological modernization, may exceed 250 billion rubles.

Investments in fixed capital from all sources of financing by 2020 will increase by 5 times compared to 2007. In the structure of investments by agricultural sectors for large and medium-sized organizations in 2020, crop production will account for about 30%, livestock - 50%. By 2020, the volume of investments from own funds may increase to 925 billion rubles against 85.3 billion rubles in 2007. Funds raised in 2020 may exceed 1,900 billion rubles against 148.2 billion rubles in 2007. The purchase of machinery and equipment will account for about 46% of the total investment, the construction of buildings (except residential) and structures - 30-35%. The share of investments for the purchase of breeding stock will increase from 11% in 2007 to 17-20% in 2020.

The implementation of measures to intensify crop and livestock production, reduce material and labor costs will significantly improve economic indicators agricultural development.

Table 48 - Development factors Food Industry

activities	Production Growth Factors (inertial version)	Additional growth factors (innovative version)
Manufacture of food products, including drinks, and tobacco	Attraction of investment funds Growing demand for food Raw material base development Implementation of measures of customs and tariff regulation	Large scale application innovative technologies Accelerating the development and application of technical regulations for the food industry Expansion of the range of products Emergence or further development of new markets for the food industry Intensive dynamics of agricultural production Improving the quality characteristics of raw materials Favorable global environment

The inertial option for the development of the food market is characterized by an increase in consumer demand for food products, a low level of competitiveness of domestic products, an average level of investment activity, and a relatively high degree of dependence of the Russian food market on imports.

The volume of food production in 2020 will increase by 1.6 times compared to 2007.

By 2020, over 900 billion rubles of investment funds will be attracted to the industry (1.9 times higher than in 2007), of which over 500 billion rubles will be directed to technological modernization.

The innovative development scenario focuses on sustainable consumer demand for food, the formation of a new consumption culture, and a large-scale investment attraction aimed at technological modernization of production.

According to estimates, the dynamics of food imports is constrained by the rather strong competitive positions of Russian producers, supported by active investment policy, which will lead to a greater orientation of domestic demand towards domestic goods and a slowdown in the growth of imports (import substitution).

The level of food production in 2020 in relation to 2007 will increase by 1.9 times.

By 2020, about 1,150 billion rubles of investment funds will be attracted to the industry (2.9 times the level of 2007), of which more than 640 billion rubles will be directed to technological modernization. The level of utilization of production capacities will reach 85% against 70% in 2007.

The growth in the production of meat products will be affected by the improvement of the raw material base and the use of modern technologies. Saturation of the domestic market with domestic raw materials (pork and poultry) will affect the reduction in the share of pork imports in resources in 2020 to 7-10% against 24.9% in 2007, poultry - 14% and 39.5 percent, respectively. As a result of rapid modernization and capacity building in efficient poultry companies, Russia will be able to claim the role of a significant exporter of poultry meat.

Growth in domestic and foreign demand, the projected increase in prices for dairy products will have a stimulating effect on the dairy sector. Export of dairy products will increase by 2 times. Promising prospects for dairy producers are opening up in terms of their export to the markets of Southeast Asian countries, which are experiencing a limitation in their own resources for milk production.

By 2020, Russia may reach the level of per capita consumption of meat and milk corresponding to the recommended rational norm.

High prices for sunflower seeds in 2007, caused by a low harvest in 2007 against the backdrop of growing capacities of Russian oil extraction plants, stimulated producers to significantly expand the area under this crop in 2008. The growth trend in sunflower production and, as a result, sunflower oil will continue in 2009-2020.

A trend is being formed to increase the production of rapeseed oil against the backdrop of the development of the market for alternative energy sources. Further prospects for the development of the domestic market of rapeseed and rapeseed oil will directly depend on the ongoing policy of the EU countries regarding the increase or decrease in the volume of biofuel production and a possible change in the export duty on rapeseed seeds.

Given the high demand for vegetable oils, the total output of vegetable oils in 2020 will increase by 29 percent compared to 2007.

In the sugar sector, it is planned to further reduce the volume of raw sugar processing (in 2020 by 2007 - about 64%) and, accordingly, a significant increase in the production of domestic beet sugar (about 129%). The share of sugar imports in resources will decrease from 39% in 2007 to 20% in 2020.

The forecast growth in flour production is characterized by moderate market development and is driven by demand from bakeries, confectionery, catering and retail businesses. The expansion of external demand may become a factor that ensures the growth of the flour-grinding industry. A new trend is already being formed - the export of flour to Central Asia.

Table 49 - Production of basic foodstuffs

Name				2020 to 2007, %		2020 to 2010, %
Production of food products, including drinks, and tobacco, %
Meat, including by-products of the 1st category, thousand tons
Animal butter, thousand tons
Fatty cheeses (including cheese), thousand tons
Sugar - total, thousand tons
from it granulated sugar from sugar. beets, thousand tons
Vegetable oils, thousand tons
Flour, million tons
Groats, thousand tons

Table 50 - Indicators of the development of the agro-industrial complex

Name	2007 report			by 2007 in %
Oud. weight of imports in product resources, %:
Meat and meat products
Milk and dairy products
Sugar
Export of grain, million tons
Consumption per capita, kg:
Meat and meat products
Milk and dairy products

The main challenges and risks for the favorable development of the sector are related to the following factors:

Substantial rise in domestic food prices. Restoring parity in prices for tradable food and, through them, for non-tradable food is a natural process that in the long run will end in parity of domestic and foreign food prices. The risk here is overgrowth when biofuel production or other competing uses of agricultural land become more profitable in the short term than food production;

The rise in prices on world markets increases the price competitiveness of domestic agricultural products, that is, together with financial opportunities, it significantly reduces the incentives for the technological modernization of the agro-industrial complex.

An excessively extensive method of expanding agricultural production in the context of a state policy not aimed at intensifying production draws the labor force and significantly slows down the growth of labor productivity, and hence the income of the population.

The need for mass technological and, as a result, structural (reduction of excess employment) modernization of agriculture. If this risk materializes, Russian agriculture will not be able to increase output when there is global demand for its products, and may remain uncompetitive in the long term.

In the medium term, the development of the agro-industrial complex will be determined by the following factors:

preservation and maintenance of soil fertility;

creation of economic conditions for agricultural producers to invest in the modernization and technical re-equipment of production;

state support for agriculture, improvement of forms of state support;

increasing the financial stability of agriculture and the solvency of agricultural producers;

improving the organization of production and labor, increasing the level of employment, motivation and remuneration;

creation of a system of state information support in the field of agriculture;

settlement of land relations;

improvement of market regulation mechanisms for agricultural products, raw materials and foodstuffs.

In the long term, the development of the agro-industrial complex will be determined by:

improvement of the zonal farming system and an increase in the volume of mineral fertilizers (110-117 kg/ha);

significant (up to 35-40 percent of the sown area) expansion of sown areas of high-yield crops;

improving the breed composition of livestock, expanding the network of breeding farms;

implementation of measures to stimulate the accelerated recovery of the number of cattle;

improving the structure of concentrated feed used in animal husbandry by increasing the proportion of feed balanced for all components and increasing the return on feed on this basis;

increasing the scale of mastering modern automated technologies for keeping livestock and poultry, which will ensure the growth of their productivity to a level close to the indicators of the world's leading producers of livestock products, increase its competitiveness and carry out import substitution in the predicted volume;

active implementation of social programs in the countryside.

Further development of food markets is seen in the context of the growth of effective demand of the population, global market trends and the possible strengthening of positions in the foreign market, mainly due to the CIS countries. There is a possibility of value added growth not due to the growth of physical volumes, but due to shifts in the structure of production towards more expensive goods.

Significant opportunities for the growth of the food industry, supported by the accelerated development of agricultural production, will allow Russia to occupy its own niche in the world market for such types of products as sunflower oil, powdered milk, animal butter, and poultry meat.

Realization of the unique natural and economic potential of the country, the intensification of agricultural production will allow Russia to become one of the world market leaders in such types of products as grain, flax fiber and products of "ecological agriculture".

At the same time, in the long term, it is possible to strengthen the role of large and medium-sized agricultural organizations, which have greater opportunities for concentrating production and using resource-saving technologies than in private household plots.

A source: International Independent Institute for Agricultural Policy

The presented report is made on the basis of a study by the International Independent Institute for Agricultural Policy in order to identify key trends in the Russian agricultural industry and evaluate them in order to determine the most likely scenarios for the development of the situation in the next few years.

Research results can be shared and referenced in the media, and used by other think tanks for more focused research.

During the study, several methods were used to assess the situation in the agricultural industry in Russia:

Questioning of heads of large regional companies;
analysis of the dynamics of the total volume of products manufactured in the industry;
analysis of the financial environment and credit conditions for companies in the industry;
analysis of global trends in agriculture based on data.

The main sources of information were data from the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia, the Bank of Russia, as well as the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the results of a survey of top management of companies in this industry. Based on the results obtained, forecasts were made for the development of the situation in the agricultural industry in Russia, which reflect the most likely scenarios based on current conditions.

Study Structure

The structure of the presented study is formed as follows:

Up-to-date data on the situation in agriculture in Russia;
compiled research results;
forecasts formed on the basis of the results obtained;
a separate item assesses the conditions for lending to companies in this industry and their impact on the dynamics of growth in output.

The current situation in the industry

At the end of 2015, agriculture became the leading sector in terms of growth in production volumes - the indicator increased by 3.5% compared to 3.7% recorded at the end of 2015.

A significant increase in agricultural production made it possible to reduce the cost of purchasing food products abroad by almost 2 times to $23 billion. Russian farmers harvested a record harvest of major agricultural crops. The gross harvest of grains and leguminous crops in 2015 amounted to 104.3 million tons of grain in weight after processing, including 61.8 million tons of wheat (59.7 million tons in 2014). In addition, a record gross harvest was obtained for a number of crops: 12.7 million tons of corn for grain, 2.6 million tons of soybeans, 1.11 million tons of rice, and more than 500 thousand tons of curly flax. Also, 37.6 million tons of sugar beets were harvested, 9.2 million tons of sunflower oil seeds were harvested.

Increased production of potatoes and vegetables. In all categories of farms, the gross harvest of potatoes amounted to 33.6 million tons, which is 15.9% more than the average level over the past five years (in 2014 - 31.5 million tons). A record harvest of vegetables was harvested - 16.1 million tons (in 2014 - 15.5 million tons), which is 12.3% higher than the average level over the past five years.

At the end of the year, the production of livestock and poultry for slaughter in live weight in farms of all categories amounted to 13.4 million tons, which is 4.2% or 539 thousand tons more than in 2014 (source - Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation). Over the year, in agricultural organizations, the production of livestock and poultry for slaughter in live weight increased by 7.2%, in peasant (farm) farms - by 4.6%, and in households, production decreased by 3.4%.

Agriculture turned out to be one of the few sectors where lending volumes did not show a sharp drop, despite a serious contraction of the credit market in the face of tightening monetary policy. Central Bank data show that last year banks significantly increased loans to agricultural companies in their portfolios - from 1.7% to 2.1%.

results

As a result of a survey of top management of companies from regions that are the main "locomotive" of the Russian agricultural industry, the following data were obtained:

• More than 50% of respondents assess the situation in the industry as positive-neutral, 20% assess it as negative, and 30% as neutral.
• Of the 20% who assessed the situation as negative, the vast majority (more than 85%) attributed their assessment to deteriorating lending conditions and the discrepancy between nominal conditions for obtaining loans and real ones.
• Of the 50% of respondents who assessed the situation in the industry as positive-neutral, 60% associated their assessment with government support for the course of import substitution, which freed the Russian market from imported products. 40% associate their assessment with a possible improvement in lending conditions in the next 2–3 years, as well as an increase in profitability.
• 70% of those who rated the situation as neutral believe that the next year will be the defining main trend for Russian market agriculture: whether its recovery will continue or whether it will stagnate, turning into a recession following a contraction in consumer spending.

The survey involved 900 respondents.

As a result of the analysis of data from the Ministry of Agriculture, the Bank of Russia and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the International Independent Institute for Agricultural Policy identified key trends:
lending to the industry is stagnating;
food prices in the world have reached the bottom and will begin to recover in the second half of the year;
the momentum from government-implemented industry support programs is fading.

Forecasts

In our opinion, positive dynamics in agriculture will also be observed at the end of the current year, however, there is a tendency towards a slowdown in growth rates. The main reason for the slowdown in production growth in this moment is the fall in food prices on the world market.

According to our forecasts, the dynamics of prices in the global food market will begin to improve already this year, which will probably mean generally higher prices for the industry next year.

But already in 2017, the following negative factors will put pressure on the agricultural industry:

The rapid decline in incomes of the population;
reduction in lending to agricultural enterprises;
a drop in business activity;
exhaustion of momentum from the implementation of the agricultural support program in 2009-2012.

The implementation of a number of state programs for the development of agriculture has brought certain results. However, the reduction in the volume of world trade, a sharp deterioration in economic conditions nullified the results of state support measures.

Thus, despite the recovery of Russian GDP growth rates this year to 0-0.5% in 2016 and to 1.0-1.5% in 2017, the growth rate of production in the agricultural sector will continue to decline.

Already by next year, the growth rate of gross value added will not exceed the growth rate of output, and the share of gross value added of agriculture in the total volume of gross value added will begin to decline, all this, taking into account the slowdown in production growth, is a “red signal”. This situation indicates that agriculture will begin to stagnate, threatening to develop into a recession.

In the event that a new large-scale agricultural support program is not implemented in the coming year, which will provide access to cheap liquidity and reduce tax pressure on industry enterprises, the situation of 2012 may repeat itself by 2018.

Lending

Since 2013, the real volume of lending to enterprises in the agricultural sector has significantly decreased, which has sharply affected the dynamics of the volume of production.

The key problem for the industry is still the unavailability of long-term loans; enterprises are forced to borrow at extremely high interest rates for quite short term, which allows them only to survive the season and does not allow them to plan their activities for a long period.

This is the main problem of the fact that, despite the reduction in the supply of products from abroad, to take advantage of the effect of import substitution in Russian companies Did not work out.

The program of the Ministry of Agriculture, which is expected to reduce the effective rate on investment loans to 5%, can significantly stimulate activity in the industry.

According to the estimates of the International Independent Institute for Agricultural Policy, the effect of lowering the real effective rate across the entire industry will spur the growth of agricultural production up to 5-6% over the next few years.

Changing the structure of agriculture

The fact is that since the beginning of 2013, the share of agricultural enterprises and farms in the structure of industries that are key consumers of government incentive programs has been sharply increasing. Gaining access to cheap liquidity will allow companies and farms invest in the means of production and achieve a significant increase in labor productivity.

Under the current conditions, when the lowest effective rates on investment loans are in beef and dairy cattle breeding (6-10% per annum), and in crop production - 9-13%, this is almost impossible, given that the average profitability in the industry is several times lower. .

However, in our opinion, a change in the scheme of lending to the agricultural sector, as a result of which creditor banks will become recipients of subsidies, will contribute to
inefficient allocation of funds due to the emergence of a “conflict of interest”. In accordance with the Law on the Development of Agriculture, state subsidies are intended for agricultural producers and must be targeted and effective.

 

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