Development of agriculture in Russia: realities and prospects. Development of agriculture in Russia: realities and prospects Increasing the role of the state in the development of agriculture in Russia

The past year was a record year for Russian crop production in several indicators at once: yield and gross harvest for a number of agricultural products, as well as in terms of export volumes. In 2017, a record harvest was obtained for grain and leguminous crops.

According to preliminary data from Rosstat, the gross grain harvest in Russia increased by 11% and amounted to 118.5 million tons in weight after completion. After the last five years of stable growth, in 2017 the gross wheat harvest increased again - by 17%, to 85.8 million tons.

In 2017, the production of barley also increased by 14%, the harvest of which amounted to 20.6 million tons. This is a record figure since 2008, when 23.1 million tons were harvested. According to preliminary data, the harvest of corn for grain amounted to 12.1 million tons, which is 21% lower than the 2016 crop, but is the third largest crop in modern Russian history. Among the achievements of crop production in 2017, one can also highlight the record soybean harvest - 3.6 million tons (+14% compared to 2016).
In 2017, a near-record sugar beet harvest was also harvested - 48.2 million tons, which is only 6% less than the absolute record of last year.

The high harvest in 2017 is primarily associated with increased sown areas, as well as an abundance of moisture during the growing season, which provided favorable conditions for crop growth. The renewal of the agricultural machinery fleet by many farms and the increased use of fertilizers were also important.

PRICES

In recent years, prices for grains and oilseeds have been declining due to high yields and high stocks in the world. Thus, the average world price for wheat in 2017 amounted to 7.4 thousand rubles / ton, which is 37% lower than in 2016. The average world price for corn fell by 21% - at the end of 2017, it amounted to 9.3 thousand rubles/ton. Prices for barley, sunflower and soybeans also decreased - by 18, 17 and 15% respectively.

A similar decline occurred in the Russian market. The average price fell the most for sunflower seeds (by 26% to 17.4 thousand rubles/ton) and corn (by 23% to 7.8 thousand rubles/ton). The average price for wheat in the Russian market in 2017 amounted to 8 thousand rubles/ton, which is 19% lower than in 2016.

EXPORT

Over the past five years, the volume of export deliveries of Russian grains has grown 2.3 times. In 2017, exports amounted to 43.6 million tons, which is 28% more than in 2016. Wheat traditionally occupies the largest share in exports - about 70–75%. From 2013 to 2017, the volume of deliveries increased by 2.4 times. As a result of the increase in gross harvest in 2017, wheat exports amounted to 32.9 million tons (+31%), barley - 5.1 million tons (+73%). Exports could have been greater, but the possibilities of rail transportation and the capacity of ports did not allow to fully realize the full potential for exports.

Last five years major countries- importers of Russian grains were Egypt and Turkey, whose convenient geographical location and logistical proximity to Russia predetermine high volumes mutual trade. Until 2015, Turkey accounted for about 41% of imports, Egypt - 30%. Since 2015, due to the deterioration of trade relations between the countries, the volume of exports to Turkey began to decline, and in 2016 Turkey's share was already 22%, while Egypt became the main importer with a share of 44%. In 2017, the situation partially leveled off: 7.9 million tons of grain were exported to Egypt (share - 43%), to Turkey - 5.2 million tons (share - 28%).

IMPORT

The only crop for which Russia is a net importer is soybeans. In Russia for a long time there was no culture of soybean cultivation. There were no seeds, technologies, knowledge and equipment. With the growth of meat production, the need for a source of high protein content has increased significantly. The main importers of soybeans to Russia are the countries of South America: Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay.

Due to the peculiarities of the climate - the lack of dry sunny days - insufficient amount of durum wheat is produced in Russia for its own consumption. Russia imports high protein food wheat and exports less hard food grains and fodder.

FORECAST FOR 2018

Ministry Agriculture The United States forecasts* the volume of world grain production in the 2017/2018 season at the level of 2.6 billion tons, of which wheat will amount to 758.8 million tons. Global soybean production will amount to 340.9 million tons, which is 10.5 million tons less than the 2016/2017 season. The forecast for world wheat exports in the 2017/2018 season is estimated at 182.0 million tons, of which 37.5 million tons are exported by Russia, which will produce about 85 million tons of agriculture. World
soybean exports will amount to 150.6 million tons, almost half of which is exported by Brazil. Egypt and Turkey are expected to purchase 8.6 and 5.9 million tons of Russian grains, which will account for 19 and 13% of all Russian exports, respectively.

Significant export potential of Russian grain is currently limited throughput specialized grain terminals of ports, as well as a fleet of rolling stock of grain carriers. The proposals of the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia on the creation in the next three years of new transshipment grain terminals, from which products will be delivered abroad, are aimed at solving this problem. Thus, by 2020 in ports Far East, new grain terminals with a total capacity of about 44-54 million tons may appear in the Azov-Black Sea and Baltic basins, which corresponds to the volume of annual grain exports from Russia.

MOSCOW, December 23 - RIA Novosti. The outgoing year for agriculture can be called anything, but not simple. Difficulties were different: both inside the country and during export; they were associated with both the weather and the human factor.

Nevertheless, either due to these difficulties, or in spite of it, the domestic agro-industrial complex set new various records in 2017, providing more than one reason for pride for the Russian authorities.

But if 2017 was such a busy year, what can we expect from next year? Will it be just as difficult? It's hard to say. Who, for example, last December could have imagined that such uncomfortable weather this spring could lead to such an outstanding harvest of 130 million tons of grain?

On the other hand, the tasks that will need to be addressed in 2018 are already visible - this is the development of logistics infrastructure and support for domestic demand.

Let's catch up and overtake America

The main agricultural event of 2017 for Russia is, of course, new records for exports and grain harvests. The first record was set at the end of June: according to the results of the 2016-2017 agricultural year (from July 1, 2016 to June 30, 2017), grain exports from Russia amounted to 35.474 million tons, which is 4.7% more than in the previous season.

Deliveries of wheat abroad last season increased by 10% - up to 27.075 million tons. These figures updated the achievements of the previous agricultural year: then the country exported 33.9 million tons of grain, including 25 million tons of wheat.

And although Russia lost the world's top wheat supply last season (the United States exported about 29 million tons), Russian authorities, analysts, and even the United States Department of Agriculture expect Russia to return to the leader's title this agricultural year.

The Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation expects that grain exports from Russia in the current agricultural year will amount to 45 million tons, and wheat supplies may reach 40 million tons. According to the Federal Customs Service (FTS) of the Russian Federation, as of December 13, grain exports from the Russian Federation increased by 34% compared to last season, to 24.5 million tons. Wheat was exported by 33.2% more - 19.074 million tons.

By the way, one should not forget about the outstanding results shown by the export of Russian sunflower oil. Although Russia is in second place after Ukraine in this indicator (according to the results of the 2016-2017 season, more than 2.2 million tons of sunflower oil were shipped), achieving this level, coupled with the expansion of sales markets, can be considered the success of the Russian agro-industrial complex.

"Tomato Wars"

The outgoing year was also remembered for another event related to exports, a very long one. The supply of Russian grain, and other products as well, could suffer from restrictions that Turkey introduced and canceled during the year - and this country is one of the main importers of domestic agricultural products in general and grain in particular.

Russia has been imposing an embargo on the supply of a number of products from Turkey since January 1, 2016 in response to the Turkish Air Force attack on the Russian Su-24 in Syria at the end of November 2015. In addition, the Rosselkhoznadzor in 2016 banned the supply of Turkish tomatoes, peppers, pomegranates, eggplants, lettuce and iceberg lettuce, zucchini and pumpkins to the Russian Federation.

Since the fall of last year, restrictions have been consistently lifted. As a result, since the beginning of June 2017, Russia has retained only the ban on the import of tomatoes, as well as the restrictions of the Rosselkhoznadzor. At the same time, negotiations were going on to open Russian market for Turkish tomatoes - and the domestic market is very important for Turkish producers.

And while negotiations were underway between the countries to lift all trade restrictions, the Turkish authorities took measures that, directly or indirectly, pushed Russia to lift its bans. For example, from March 15, Turkey changed the procedure for importing certain types of agricultural products for domestic processing, including wheat and sunflower oil.

At the same time, Russia was not included in the list of countries eligible for duty-free deliveries. Later, Turkey announced the lifting of these restrictions, however, at the end of May, several Russian and Turkish agricultural associations reported that Ankara had introduced new barriers to trade. Russian companies the number of import licenses under the domestic processing regime, which gives the right to duty-free import of goods, was limited.

On October 9, Turkey introduced new restrictions on the supply of agricultural products from the Russian Federation: it becomes mandatory to certify invoices submitted in customs services when importing wheat, sunflower oil, corn and a number of other goods, the country of origin of which is Russia.

Ultimately, Russia partially lifted the ban on the import of Turkish tomatoes - by the end of 2017, Turkey can supply Russia with no more than 50,000 tons of tomatoes. However, there has been no evidence of the lifting of Turkey's October restrictions so far. And all these events began to be unofficially referred to as the "tomato war".

The Taming of the Shrew

About the history of another record - the grain harvest - one can say unequivocally: "This thing is stronger than Goethe's Faust." And the point here is not only the significance of the very fact of achieving the highest harvest in the history of Russia, but also how this peak was conquered. And the ascent was not easy.

The 2016 harvest amounted to 120.7 million tons of grain - the most high rate in recent Russian history. The first official forecasts of the Ministry of Agriculture for the harvest of the current year - they usually appear in April, when it becomes clear how winter crops have endured the winter - were quite accurate: more than 100 million tons, more than 110 million.

However, the weather made its own adjustments: April and May this year were very cold, in the regions even during these months sleet was observed. Yes, and the usual rain was a frequent guest in the fields. Already in May, the Agrarian Ministry stated that the rate of sowing spring crops in 2017 lags behind last year.

This posed a threat to the crop. At the beginning of June, the Minister of Agriculture Alexander Tkachev admitted that due to bad weather conditions and a long spring, this year's grain harvest will exceed 100 million tons, but will not exceed 110 million.

But, as they say, if somewhere has gone, then somewhere it has arrived. Winter crops endured last winter quite well, and prolonged rains filled the ground with moisture.

In July, Pyotr Chekmarev, head of the Department of Crop Production of the Ministry of Agriculture, speaking at the Field Day in Kazan (ironically, to the accompaniment of a powerful rain) recalled 1978: there was heavy harvesting, it rained heavily, but then Russia (as part of the USSR) gathered a record harvest - 127 .4 million tons. A good harvest, according to Chekmarev, could be seen this year if the weather smiled at the farmers in August-September. His words turned out to be prophetic. The weather in autumn was really good, and as the autumn work progressed, it became clear that a new record would be set.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of December 18, 140.4 million tons of grain in bunker weight were harvested in the country, and the harvest in net weight, according to Rosstat, in 2017 amounted to 134.1 million tons. This is 11% more than last year and 5.3% more than the historical record of 1978.

That the coming year?

The answer to this question from the perspective of December 2017: it seems that nothing is wrong.

Agricultural production in Russia is growing, and there is no reason for it to decline sharply. Financing of the agro-industrial complex from the budget next year will remain at the level of the outgoing year - it will amount to 241.986 billion rubles. If the export of grain does not fail, then at least one record for the country is guaranteed.

So far, the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation assumes a harvest in 2018 at the level of 110.6 million tons of grain - not a small indicator at all. On the other hand, collecting high yields for several years in a row, Russia may face a decrease in world grain prices, which, in turn, can cause a reduction in the profitability of domestic farmers.

“In a situation of a sharp increase in production, indeed, there is often a decrease in prices on the world market. But Russian products are competitive, so in the long term the share of Russian exporters will grow,” said Daria Snitko, head of the Gazprombank Center for Economic Forecasting.

In turn, Elena Razumova, an expert from the Analytical Center under the Government of the Russian Federation, pointed out that at the end of 2017, it became obvious that the logistics infrastructure was not ready for ultra-high yields, both in terms of transportation and grain storage.

In addition, industry participants have been saying for years that dependence on imported means of production in Russian agriculture causes concern.

“Many agricultural producers do not use domestic seeds, and some are significantly dependent on imported seed material, in particular beet growers. Solving the problem of localizing the production of means of production — seeds, machinery, veterinary drugs and much more — will be relevant in the coming years,” Snitko said.

In turn, Razumova from the Analytical Center admitted that the problem could be a decrease in profitability in key sectors of the agro-industrial complex - these are grain, oilseed and sugar segments. "To support it, the state will have to actively stimulate investment," she said.

A record grain harvest and fairly good performance in other crops, as well as an increase in livestock production, allowed agriculture to grow by 2.4%. However, such high base against the background of relatively low prices, stagnating demand and the lack of new drivers are likely to trigger a slowdown in the industry this year.

According to the first estimate Rosstat, Russia's GDP in 2017 grew by 1.5% after a contraction of 0.2% in 2016. Agriculture outperformed the economy for the fifth consecutive time, adding 2.4% from 4.8% a year earlier. True, both results can still be adjusted: by mid-February, the final data were not taken into account annual accounts, including small and medium enterprises. In addition, in the spring, the statistical agency will obviously increase the yield in 2017: in winter, harvesting of corn and sunflower continued. True, it is unlikely that GDP and the agricultural sector will eventually reach the figures expected by the Ministry of Economic Development and Ministry of Agriculture. The first at the end of last year expected that economic growth would exceed 2%. Minister of Agriculture Alexander Tkachev hoped that by the end of 2017 the industry would add at least 3%, or even all 4%. Although the official forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development and the Ministry of Agriculture regarding the dynamics of agricultural production ranged from zero to 1.2%, and the agro-state program included an indicator of 1.7%. The two-fold decrease in the growth rate of the agro-industrial complex compared to the level of 2016, despite the renewal of the record for the grain harvest, is due to the fact that relatively low prices for agricultural products remain in the world, and the strengthening of the ruble also affected.

Livestock grew faster

The volume of agricultural production in 2017, taking into account the adjustment of monthly indicators, exceeded 5.6 trillion rubles. Including plant growing accounted for about 3 trillion rubles, livestock - 2.6 trillion rubles. Contrary to fears, the grain harvest not only did not decrease due to the weather, but also turned out to be a record one, which became one of the key factors in the growth of the industry. The collection reached 134.1 million tons, which is 11.2% more than in 2016. At the same time, by the last ten days of December 2017, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, more than 410 thousand hectares, or 14% of corn crops, had to be harvested. Also, almost 990 thousand hectares of sunflower remained unthreshed, therefore Rosstat previously recorded a decrease in its collection. In addition, the yields of sugar beets and potatoes were reduced. In general, the crop sector added 2.1%, while in 2016 it grew by 7.6%.

The dynamics in animal husbandry in 2017 was higher than a year earlier - 2.8% compared to 1.5%. For the first time since 2012, the industry has grown more than crop production, and unlike the previous eight years, not only meat and egg production, but also milk production made a positive contribution. Gross milk yield in all farms increased by 1.2%, or 361.7 thousand tons, to 31.1 million tons. Marketable milk production, according to "", increased by 2.8%, reaching 21.2 million tons In the meat segment, the poultry industry regained its lost leadership in terms of growth dynamics, adding 6.9% after slowing down to plus 1.9% in 2016, while the production of pigs for slaughter increased by 5% against 8.7% in 2016. For cattle Rosstat previously recorded no changes, a year earlier, the sector's index decreased by 1.8%.

According to the forecast of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies ( IKAR), in March when adjusting harvest data for 2017 Rosstat can add about 1 million tons of grain due to unaccounted for corn, an additional estimate for sunflower will also be made. As a result, carry-over grain stocks will reach a record 26.6 million tons by the end of the 2017/18 season, of which 19 million tons will be wheat, the CEO estimates IKAR Dmitry Rylko. Thanks to the “frantic” exports, they will decrease, however, it is highly likely that there will be very large balances in the Volga region and Siberia, but this is due, among other things, to the fact that most of the grain of the intervention fund is stored there. Although at the end of 2017 the growth rate of the agro-industrial complex turned out to be lower than in 2016, in general, this is still a very decent result, which the industry can be quite proud of, he is sure.

The year for the agricultural sector was not easy, says Vitaly Sheremet, partner, head of the competence center in the agro-industrial complex of KPMG in Russia and the CIS. The high grain harvest, the dynamics of world prices and unresolved internal problems with grain logistics negatively affected domestic prices, so grain producers fell significantly short of the planned financial indicators for the season, and some even went negative or stopped sales in the hope of a rebound in prices. An additional problem for traders was the changes in the market associated with the signing of the Charter in the field of agricultural products turnover, Sheremet comments.

The downstream companies, traditionally focused on the domestic market (meat, milk), against the backdrop of the dynamics of the cost of grain and feed turned out to be the winner, as they were able to improve the cost of production. “At the same time, the savings were not passed along the chain to the consumer: although prices on the shelves decreased, in particular for poultry meat, they reflected the problem of overproduction rather than an improvement in the economy of producers,” the expert believes.

Last year was more favorable for pig farmers than for poultry farmers, thinks the group's head of strategic marketing " Cherkizovo» Andrey Dalnov. “This is true for our company and, I think, for the market as a whole and is explained by the dynamics of retail prices,” he says. According to Rosstat, the price index for pork in the first quarter of 2017 decreased by 1.5%, and for broiler - increased by 4%, as a result, demand partially shifted in favor of the former, and consumer inertia lasted until the fourth quarter of last year. In December 2017, poultry meat prices were almost 7% lower than a year earlier, pork (except for boneless meat) cost an average of 2% cheaper, follows from the data Rosstat. “Now the ratio of retail prices for different types meat shows that the consumer must “migrate” back to chicken, so it can be assumed that this year will be difficult for pig farmers, but perhaps their situation will be partially corrected by the ban on the import of Brazilian pork,” Dalnov argues.

2017 was a year of stable development, says the CEO of the group “ Prodo» Pyotr Ilyukhin. True, the decline in prices for poultry and pork affected the marginality of the work of market participants, but it also provoked an increase in the consumption of these types of meat, he says. “For example, prices for poultry meat decreased by 15% in the second half of the year. At the same time, the volume of consumption for the year increased by 3.1%, pork began to be consumed by 4.5% more, and in general, the indicator for meat increased by 3%, ”he cites the data, specifying that demand in the meat processing segment during the year did not increase.


The dynamics of agricultural production invariably outstrips GDP growth, which is expected and logical, given the state support for investment in the industry, as well as the market situation, which until recently was very promising in terms of profitability, comments Daria Snitko, head of the Center for Economic Forecasting of Gazprombank. “Our Center has been saying for several years that the food market in 2014, against the backdrop of the devaluation of the ruble and the introduction of the food embargo, received a significant impetus for development: the growth in prices for the sector’s products outpaced the increase in costs, which contributed to the recovery of a number of industries and the “accumulation” of a certain financial cushion leaders,” she says.

At the same time, it was logical to assume that this situation is not eternal and profitability will decrease. The strengthening of the ruble last year, as well as significant progress import substitution, deficit reduction and even overproduction of some products, such as sugar, led to food deflation. With this new phenomenon, farmers will have to live with in 2018, Snitko is sure: profitability will continue to fall, and the financial situation of the industry will depend on the effectiveness of the struggle to reduce costs. In addition, all these processes led to fiercer competition, first in the poultry meat market, then in pork and sugar. In the coming years, it will escalate in the segments of the production of raw milk, vegetables, oilseeds, the expert adds.

Competition for poultry and pork producers increased last year, as the broiler market has already reached saturation levels, and pork is close to it, Ilyukhin agrees. In addition, pork imports to Russia increased in 2017, while domestic production also increased. “Now the benefits are being received by those companies that already have strong brands, and this applies not only to meat processing, but also to sales of packaged meat and cutting,” he is sure.

Needs to be recycled

Interesting and less volatile than agricultural production is the consumer sector - the production of products with high added value, Vitaly Sheremet believes. This is true for both domestic and foreign markets. “I think that our producers are realizing this and are starting to invest more actively in processing and in working with the market,” he notes. — It seems to me that this area is still underestimated in our country, and serious growth is possible here. Cheese is the most obvious example.”
The production of cheese and other dairy products has the greatest potential, agrees Timur Nigmatullin. There is also potential in the cultivation of greenhouse vegetables and herbs, in winemaking. However, he adds that in general it is difficult to talk about trends in agriculture, since the industry is extremely unpredictable, especially since most regions of the country belong to risky farming areas. And the competitiveness of the industry in terms of developing export potential is a very big question, especially in crop production due to the ban on GMOs, the analyst believes.

It will be difficult to repeat the result

In 2018, it will not be easy for the agro-industrial complex to continue its positive dynamics, although in January Alexander Tkachev said that he expected growth at a level of at least 3%. The forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development is plus 0.5% in agriculture and 2.1-2.2% in the entire economy. True, in April the ministry plans to prepare a new forecast based on oil prices of $50-60 per barrel, while in the current base and target scenarios $43.8 per barrel is included.

In 2018, for a number of reasons, there will most likely not be the same increase in agricultural production as in 2017, IKAR while forecasting dynamics at the level of 1.3%. “We have a modest estimate for this year, since the starting base is very high,” Dmitry Rylko explains. In crop production in 2017, there was a record harvest of cereals and sugar beets, very good oilseed harvests, which will be extremely difficult to repeat, and growth in livestock and poultry will begin to fade. At the same time, only the weather can affect both the decrease in the final indicator of the development of the industry and its increase, the expert suggests. “I don’t see anything else on the horizon for lowering the forecast, and for raising it, too, only if the weather is favorable, then we can expect growth to be greater,” he comments. Other factors, such as state support for agricultural producers, do not have an immediate impact on the growth rate of the agro-industrial complex. In general, the industry is waiting for a difficult year, the expert is sure.


In 2018, the Center for Economic Forecasting of Gazprombank still expects a decline in agricultural production. The main reason is the likely reduction in gross harvest compared to the record of 2017. Despite the fact that there was a decrease in the sowing of winter crops in the Center and in the Volga region, about the same amount of wheat was occupied as for the last year's harvest, and the state of winter crops by mid-February did not cause serious concern, recalls Rylko. Therefore, if we talk about the contours of the next season, then the most realistic scenario seems to be the grain harvest at the level of 120-130 million tons, estimates IKAR. Ministry of Agriculture in early February, he predicted a harvest of 106 million tons, and later raised the bar to "at least 110 million tons." “So far, we do not believe in the figure of 106 million tons: there are no grounds and signs that Russia will reap such a modest harvest,” Rylko notes. If the mark of 120-130 million tons is reached, then the export potential will be 45-50 million tons, and the final reserves - 24.6-26.6 million tons.

Season starting price IKAR forecasts at $190-192/t (FOB Novorossiysk). According to Rylko, another increase in interest in grains and oilseeds is expected this year in the world, as we exit the period of low prices for them and move on to more attractive values ​​in dollar terms. The domestic sugar beet sector will have to increase efficiency, solve infrastructure problems for the development of exports. Slow, hard and thoughtful work will continue on meat, the expert adds.

In 2018, poultry meat producers will find themselves in the most difficult situation, Daria Snitko believes. This segment is not yet able to fully realize export opportunities, although the weakening of the ruble this year will improve the position of exporters, and domestic demand, if at all, will grow, then slowly. “Perhaps we will see the consolidation of the industry, the departure of some players from the market. These are the consequences of overproduction, which in a couple of years other segments that have been actively growing since 2010 may also face,” Snitko notes.

She adds that a lot will depend on export policies and household incomes, which could fuel an increase in demand. True, while there is no feeling that the situation is improving, the expert draws attention. “Therefore, it is hardly worth counting on a significant increase in effective demand, but manufacturers and the commodity distribution chain can find reserves for growth by eliminating the problems traditional for the sector with quality and logistics, thereby increasing their sales,” says Snitko.

As for the impact of macroeconomic factors on the industry, the situation remains complex and poorly predictable, Rylko draws attention. “For example, regarding the increase in the income of the population, so far we see that, despite the resumption of a small economic growth, there was another drawdown, and even according to the optimistic forecast of the Ministry of Finance in 2020, we will not be able to return to the level of the base 2013, at best we will reach the indicators of 2011,” he notes.


According to Otkritie Broker analyst Timur Nigmatullin, the expected increase in household incomes in the range of 1-2.5% is likely to support the consumption of dairy products, pork and poultry. Demand for meat, natural semi-finished meat products and dairy products will gradually rise, agrees Snitko.

2018 is unlikely to be an easy year, Ilyukhin fears. Explosive development of the markets should not be expected, since there is no activation of consumer demand and an increase in the solvency of the population. Sharp fluctuations in demand from pork to broiler, depending on the level of retail prices, are explained by the fact that people continue to get poorer, Dalnov concludes. The decline in real disposable income in 2017 was 1.7%. “Further impoverishment of the population is a risk not only for the industry, but also for the economy as a whole,” he emphasizes. “It will be more difficult for manufacturers to increase the production of value-added products if forecasts for economic growth and household incomes do not come true.” The Ministry of Economic Development expects that this year the income of the population will add 2.3-2.4%, however, according to the results of 2017, the department also expected positive dynamics at the level of 1.3%.

This year in AFG National"do not see any serious potential threats to their crop business," says Yuri Belov, CEO of the holding. The experience gained by the company allows us to take into account possible changes in weather conditions in technological processes and the quality of business processes ensures the high economic stability of the holding. If we take the macroeconomic aspect, then in general, in recent years, the growth rate of the agricultural sector has significantly exceeded other sectors of the economy, and the positive dynamics continues, the top manager believes.

The main macroeconomic factor that will affect the industry this year is the ruble exchange rate, says Daria Snitko. Gazprombank's Center for Economic Forecasting expects it to weaken slightly to 60-62 RUR/$1 on the back of forecasts for a correction in oil prices and in response to capital outflow dynamics.
The exchange rate of the ruble remains important for exporters, Vitaly Sheremet agrees. “There are expectations that a period of relative stability may end after the elections,” he warns. “On the other hand, the dynamics of oil prices provided unexpected support to the ruble, and this trend may also continue.” Another an important factor is the dynamics of the key rate of the Central Bank, but for this factor to work, the result of the rate cut should be affordable loans, the expert is sure. However, Andrey Klepach believes that interest rates will still remain extremely high even if the key rate of the Central Bank is reduced, therefore, a serious gap in the profitability of Russian producers and Western competitors will remain.
At the same time, a relatively strong ruble and a reduction in interest rates on loans following the key rate of the Central Bank will support demand for imported goods, including the means of production in the agro-industrial complex, Timur Nigmatullin draws attention. On the other hand, the strengthening of the ruble will hold back the export potential.

Milk needs saving again

One of the few beneficiaries of 2017, Vitaliy Sheremet considers milk producers, prices for which have been rising in the last 1.5-2 years, which improved the economy of dairy projects. As a result, a significant amount of investment in the industry from both internal and external investors. Judging by the announced projects, the positive trend in the sector will continue in 2018 and possibly in 2019, he adds.

However, Dmitry Rylko, on the contrary, believes that the dairy industry risks becoming a serious problem for the entire agricultural industry and regulators. “We are ringing the bells because the entire increase in commercial milk production in 2017 went into stocks. Moreover, if we added 700 thousand tons of raw materials, then the stocks in terms of milk increased by 800 thousand tons, - the expert compares. “For powdered milk, the stocks exceeded production twice, the situation is extremely risky, since the cost of raw materials at the time of the formation of stocks was very high.”

In order to prevent the development of negative trends, measures are needed to regulate the market, I am sure Executive Director"" Artem Belov. Firstly, the state needs to support domestic demand - fight counterfeiting, change the public procurement system, launch a program of domestic food assistance, and promote the benefits of dairy products. An important measure should be the protection of the domestic market and ensuring the transparency of the supply of dairy products within the EAEU and from Ukraine, the expert is sure. In addition, it is necessary to develop export, which is one of the most underestimated areas. According to Belov, now foreign supplies of milk products are estimated at about $300 million, but the potential is many times greater.

Yuri Belov

CEO of AFG National

Last year we did not have any serious problems, if you do not take into account the cold weather, but our specialists have traditionally provided for their actions in case of cold, rain, heat or drought. The experience we have accumulated both in terms of field work and in matters of obtaining borrowed money and state support ruled out possible disruptions in the production schedule. We also received all the necessary subsidies. The main problem traditionally lies in the budget deficit, due to which the amount of state support is below the calculated values.
Our rice harvest amounted to 186,000 tons, which is 4,000 tons more than in 2016, but due to bad weather during the sowing season, we were unable to reach the planned targets. But for potatoes and vegetables, we reached the expected results, although our vegetable growers were prevented by cold weather in the first half of summer, this slightly affected the final harvest. We received 41,000 tons of ware potatoes, which is slightly lower than in 2016, but we purposefully made some reductions in production and paid more attention to product quality rather than quantity. The carrot harvest amounted to 20 thousand tons. This year we plan to harvest 70 thousand tons of potatoes and 20 thousand tons of carrots.
For apples, last year we also reached the planned harvest - 4 thousand tons, more than 3.3 thousand tons were put into storage. Last year, we began planting the third phase of intensive orchards in the Krasnodar Territory, and we are completing the construction of the first phase of a fruit storage facility with a sorting unit.

Export is the future of the industry

Working with foreign markets should become an important trend in 2018 for the entire agro-industrial complex, Vitaly Sheremet is sure. “If we don’t achieve results in poultry and pork, we will see serious consequences in the form of market redistribution, bankruptcies, bad debts, etc.,” he warns. It is important for our manufacturers to understand the target markets and consolidate efforts to position products in them. However, Andrey Dalnov recalls the risks of the spread of African swine fever (ASF) and avian influenza that are relevant for the industry. “The difficult epizootic situation hinders the development of external sales, which could become an alternative to traditional sales channels - sales in retail chains and meat processing plants,” he notes.

The problems of ASF and avian influenza really need to be addressed, Sheremet agrees, but he adds that, for example, the supply of thermally processed products (ready-to-eat) allows to bypass the existing restrictions on Russian meat. True, in this case, another problem is exposed: a poor understanding of consumer preferences in the target markets and the weak competencies of our manufacturers in matters of marketing high value-added products. Another difficulty is that potential consumers abroad are not aware of Russia's potential as a food supplier. “We have not been present in these markets as a food exporter for almost 100 years, if we consider the achievements of tsarist Russia as a starting point,” the expert emphasizes. “Therefore, building a country food brand in foreign markets is one of the main tasks of the Ministry of Agriculture and the Russian Export Center.”


Now one of the key factors in the development of the market is exports, and in this regard, the agricultural sector has room to grow, Dmitry Rylko agrees with him. So, in 2017, Russia exported about 64 million tons of agricultural raw materials and food worth $20.3 billion, while importing products worth almost $29 billion, but in volume only 22 million tons. “This suggests that our exports are huge, but cheap, the expert concludes. “Our country should gradually switch to the export of products with a higher added value.” According to the forecast IKAR, this year, if the exchange rate of the ruble does not fall and is relatively stable, then both exports and imports of food will continue to increase.

The turn to export is indeed a huge achievement for the Russian agro-industrial complex, says Andrey Klepach, Chief Economist and Deputy Chairman of the Board of Vnesheconombank, however, according to him, the first easy step in this direction has already been taken, and it will be more difficult to increase indicators further. “We will not be able to quickly increase domestic production: grain harvests may decrease due to the weather, there is not much room for growth in meat and vegetables, while prices have fallen,” he said in early February during the “Where is the margin” conference. — The same with export. We left with huge volumes grain, but it will be difficult to continue to maintain such indicators, taking into account competition, the growth of world production, and our problems with infrastructure.” In his opinion, in terms of grain, we are no longer just at the ceiling of possibilities, but rather, even a little above it. Russia enters foreign markets with sugar, expands the supply of fat and oil products, but it will not work to sharply increase the export of, for example, meat, because it is very expensive and difficult in terms of logistics and certification of enterprises.

Vitaly Sheremet

Partner, Head of the Competence Center in the Agroindustrial Complex of KPMG in Russia and the CIS

APK shows very good growth in recent years, especially against the general economic background. In order to maintain this momentum and achieve the goals that are being voiced - in particular, in terms of export volumes - comprehensive measures are needed to fundamentally solve the accumulated problems. Work is already underway to revise the priorities of state support: we need to pay more attention to innovation, infrastructure, exports - everything that creates equal opportunity for manufacturers. An important area is the support of small forms that not only solve a social problem, but also improve the economy of the sector through mobility and efficiency.
It is also worth noting the increased interest in the sector from the top officials of the regions. And if earlier this interest was reflected in the expected results of statistics, today absolutely business tasks are set. The regions are no longer waiting for an initiative from the center, they are ready to invest and promote their companies both on the federal and global markets. This is a very good trend, because the Russian brand in the global market is made up of a mosaic of regional brands. And we have something to offer in this respect. It is national products, recipes, cuisine that may interest the consumer, who is somewhat tired of the impersonal large-scale production of transnational corporations.

Where to invest

By February 19 Rosstat has not yet released data on investment dynamics in 2017. According to the results of the first nine months of last year, investments in fixed assets in agriculture amounted to 226.9 billion rubles, which is 2.4% more than in the same period of 2016. Investments in all sectors of the economy added 1.6%.

It is better not to talk about new niches for investing in agriculture, Rylko is sure. “If we notice something and say about it, it means that investments came there two years ago: if someone finds a free niche and starts investing there, then, as a rule, they do it quietly,” he comments. “For example, this year is expected to explode in the production of frozen potatoes, but investments began much earlier.” According to the expert, now the sectors that are above and below the raw material production are of the most interest, since there is still room for serious investment. In particular, the expert predicts that there will be a new wave of investments in the construction and modernization of the grain distribution network, in the storage and logistics of sugar beet and sugar, and investments in seed production and agricultural engineering will continue.

A similar opinion is shared by Daria Snitko. According to her, it is necessary to improve technologies, apply the latest methods of agricultural technology, develop the production of plant protection products, localize the production of seeds, veterinary preparations, and equipment in the country. “It seems to me that the fact that the Russian agro-industrial complex has fulfilled the primary goals of import substitution is up in the air, but the dependence on imported means of production has not been eliminated,” she explains. “The state program is valid until 2020, and what is beyond the horizon of these years is rarely discussed so far.”

The production of means of production will remain the most interesting, but also the most difficult segment of the entire agro-industrial complex. Prices for them will grow, and so will demand, since not all companies have switched to modern technologies, but the market situation will force them to do so, Snitko is convinced. In her opinion, investments that in the past were concentrated on creating capacities for manufacturing products will now increasingly be directed to improving technologies, equipment, as well as to related sectors - logistics infrastructure (transport operators, port facilities, storage), scientific infrastructure, as well as in the localization of the production of seeds, equipment, the creation of breeding and genetic centers.

Market participants also speak about the need to invest in modernization, technology and increasing production efficiency. For example, the CEO Rusagro» Maxim Basov in December at the conference "Agroholdings of Russia" noted that crop production will continue to develop due to an increase in yields, and not areas, which, on the contrary, will begin to decline. “We have years of very hard work ahead of us, and there is no other way but to invest in technology, in people and, to a lesser extent, in construction,” the top manager emphasized.

Group " Prodo» plans to continue the investment program in 2018, which covers all enterprises of the holding and will improve business efficiency. “Due to the modernization of equipment, the introduction of new technologies using information systems, optimization of activities and increase in production volumes, we will increase the competitiveness of products,” says Petr Ilyukhin. In January of this year, the company has already completed a three-year project for the reconstruction of the complex " Prodo Poultry farm Kaluzhskaya" worth 5 billion rubles. (more details on page 12). Also in 2018, the holding plans to complete the first stage of the reconstruction of the Omsky Bacon pig farm and begin the modernization of poultry farms. Prodo Tyumen broiler "and" Prodo Poultry farm Perm”, adds the top manager. Now the Tyumen enterprise produces more than 32 thousand tons of finished products per year, by 2021 six new buildings for fattening poultry will be built, which will increase the capacity of the site by 20%. The entire technological chain will also be reconstructed, including the incubator and the slaughter and processing complex, which will allow reaching the figure of 50 thousand tons per year. Investments at the first stage will exceed 1.6 billion rubles, Ilyukhin specifies.

« AFG National» this year intends to focus on developing and improving the efficiency of its projects launched in previous years, in particular, it will begin organizing a new production site for growing potatoes in Nizhny Novgorod region with an area of ​​at least 1.2 thousand hectares. It will start operating in 2019 and will increase potato production by 30%. “It is possible that new crops will appear in the crop rotation,” says Belov. — In addition, in the near future we want to increase the area of ​​orchards to 2.5 thousand hectares. This will allow us to become one of the largest commercial apple producers both in the Kuban and in Russia.” This year, the company plans to plant the third phase of orchards, as a result of which their total area will reach 700 hectares, and the harvest should double compared to last year. The first and second stages of a fruit storage facility with a capacity of 10,000 tons will also be completed. According to Belov, the holding intends to systematically work to improve operational efficiency and increase productivity in all sectors in which it operates.


The importance of crop production cannot be overestimated.

Crop production is one of the first and fundamental branches of agriculture. Its role in the development of the economy, and indeed of all mankind, can hardly be overestimated. It is crop production that is the basis of the food security of any country, and the provision of the population with food depends on its development.

Crop production provides the lion's share products consumed by the population of the Earth in modern world. It is the basis of international production and trade.

What crops are the main crops in the world?

The area under crops of the main grain crops, such as wheat, corn, rye, barley, oats, rice, occupies more than half of all arable land on the planet, and in some countries, such as Japan, this figure reaches 95%.

Branches of crop production - the main area of ​​crop production

Modern agriculture involves the cultivation of a huge number of plant species. In this regard, the branches of crop production are also quite diverse. The following areas have been identified:

  • - grain production
  • Horticulture and viticulture- cultivation of fruit crops
  • Vegetable and melon growing- growing vegetables and melons
  • Technical crop production- cultivation of industrial crops
  • Feed production- cultivation and production of animal feed

The largest and most important branch of crop production for mankind is grain farming, which, as the name implies, is engaged in the cultivation of various crops.

Grain is the basis of nutrition of the population and main factor food security, as well as fodder for livestock.

The main crops grown in most countries with developed agriculture, including Russia, are:

  • wheat
  • corn
  • buckwheat
  • barley
  • millet

Let's talk about the main cultures in more detail.

Wheat

Cultivated for over ten thousand years, wheat remains the most important crop product in the world today. Wheat is grown everywhere except in tropical countries.

Scientists are inclined to believe that the birthplace of wheat is an area located in Turkey. Although for many years there was an opinion among scientists, especially Soviet ones, that the place where a person first began to grow wheat artificially was Armenia.

Due to the variety of varieties and hybrids bred by breeders, almost any type of soil and climatic regions are suitable for its cultivation. And in terms of its resistance to cold, it is perhaps second only to barley and potatoes.

An interesting fact: the ancient Slavs revered wheat, considering its grains a symbol of wealth and prosperity; they tried to protect wheat grains from spoilage.

World centers of wheat cultivation are Russia, Kazakhstan, USA, Canada, Australia, Western Europe.

World wheat production photo

Although the fact that in ancient times people ate wheat grains has long been known, however, wheat was wild, and people collected the ripe crumbled grains from the ground.


Corn

The word "corn", according to scientists, came either from the Romanian "cucuruz", which translates as "spruce cone", or from the Turkish word "kokoroz", meaning stem.

Another name for corn - "maize" appeared thanks to Christopher Columbus, who, having seen the plant, called it "seed that gives rise to an ear" - "mahiz". In some countries, corn is called "Turkish millet".

But the birthplace of corn is considered to be Southern Mexico and Guatemala. This cereal is grown everywhere, but Brazil, the USA and China are traditionally considered the world leaders in the industrial cultivation of corn. Large volumes of corn are grown in Mexico, India, Argentina, South Africa, France, and, of course, Russia. In the USSR, thanks to Nikita Sergeevich Khrushchev, corn became the most important cereal.

Corn is widely used both for food production (Asia, Latin America, Africa) and feed (USA, Western Europe).

Growing corn in Russia


Rice

Rice is the basis of nutrition and the daily diet of many Asian countries and most of the world's population. Therefore, it is no wonder that this is the second most grown cereal. Rice in Asia replaces our usual potatoes, cereals and even bread.

Rice is also exported to European countries, Latin America, Canada and the USA, where it is also very popular and loved by consumers.

The world's leading rice producers have not lost ground for more than a decade. Six countries are constantly fighting for a place in the top three: China, Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Myanmar and Bangladesh. They are also the largest consumers of rice.

Experts predict an increase in rice production in the coming years. This is primarily due to the rapid population growth in countries where rice is the main source of nutrition.

Horticulture and viticulture as a branch of crop production

Horticulture is engaged in the cultivation of perennial fruit and berry trees, shrubs and herbaceous plants. Naturally, the main goal of horticulture is the production of fruits and berries for direct consumption or processing.

Horticulture plays an important role in protecting the environment. It is known that the leaves of trees and shrubs produce oxygen by absorbing carbon dioxide and protect against dust. Therefore, garden plantations are used to create a green layer around cities, create park areas, etc.

Despite the active development and support of horticulture in Soviet time, with collapse Soviet Union everything went downhill. Without state support most horticultural and fruit farms have simply closed, the rest are in decline.

Therefore, gardening in Russia at the moment is mostly small specialized farms or country and personal subsidiary farms.

Viticulture is both the cultivation of grapes for direct consumption, and the raw material base for the production of juices, canned foods, raisins, and, of course, the wine industry.

The world centers of viticulture are France, Spain, Latin America, Africa. In Russia, more than 90 percent of grape production is concentrated in the North Caucasus and the Krasnodar Territory.

Vegetable and melon growing

Types of crop production include the cultivation of vegetables and melons.

The most common types of vegetables include all types of cabbage, tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, onions, zucchini, eggplant, as well as root vegetables such as carrots, radishes, sugar beets.

With gourds, the situation is more complicated, since strictly certain conditions are suitable for their cultivation. climatic conditions. The most commonly grown and popular gourds are primarily melons and watermelons.

Since the 18th century, potatoes have been almost the most popular product in the world, second only to cereals.

In Russia, potatoes have firmly become part of the main food products due to their relatively low price and good taste.

Therefore, Russia is one of the world leaders in potato production: the largest potato producers in the world are: China, Russia, India, Ukraine, USA, Germany, Poland, Belarus, the Netherlands, France.

Potatoes are grown for the following purposes: 60% for consumption in their natural form or composition of products, 15% for animal feed, 25% for industrial processing.

Cultivation of industrial crops

The importance of the plant growing industry - the production of industrial crops - is also difficult to overestimate. It is aimed at growing plants for further processing into raw materials for various industries.

In Russia, technical plant growing is widespread and production technologies are quite developed.

The main types of industrial crops grown in Russia are fibrous plants, which are used to make fabrics, rubbers, as well as oil crops, which serve as a raw material base for the production of oils, and are used in the soap and paint industries.

The most widespread cultivation of cotton, flax, hemp, sesame, jute, sunflower.

Feed production

This branch of crop production is no less important than those described above, but rather even more of a priority. The fact is that without it, the development of another important branch of agriculture - animal husbandry - is impossible.

For animal feed, both specially grown fodder crops and residues from the processing of other crops are used.

It is on the rate of growth and development of the feed industry that the growth of the livestock sector depends. Therefore, in our country, this branch of crop production has always received great attention.

Development and problems of crop production

Despite large production volumes and world leadership in the export of certain crops, our country is still experiencing big problems in crop production.

This is influenced by many factors: underdevelopment, and sometimes even complete absence infrastructure, stagnation in technological and innovative development after the collapse of the USSR, the poor technical equipment, a monopoly of retail chains that set low purchase prices.

The state, realizing the importance of agricultural development as the basis of the country's food security, is trying, of course, to support crop production by allocating budget funds to support farms engaged in the reform of agriculture.

The impetus for the development of domestic crop production was given by the imposition of sanctions against Russia. Economic sanctions have allowed Russian crop producers to remove the shackles of competition with imported producers. It made sense for entrepreneurs to expand production, open up new areas of crop production, and simply there was hope and faith in the future.

 

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