Development prospects with. - X. Sciences. Abstract: Trends in the development of agriculture in the world economy Problems and prospects of agricultural production in the Russian Federation
Economics is the art of satisfying unlimited needs with limited resources.
Lawrence PETER, educator.
Will education become a locomotive for the countryside? Before our eyes, a new page is opening in the history of the Russian agro-industrial complex. President Vladimir Putin outlined the state's position: agriculture, our food security and independence are the most important priority for the country and Russians. The policy of import substitution encouraged farmers. Domestic agricultural producers are excited: will they be able to occupy the vacated market niches? Experts' assessment of the potential volume of substitution of imported products in the medium term is quite optimistic: large meat cattle- for $2.5 billion, fish and fish products- by $2.5 billion, dairy products (butter, cheese, milk) - by $1 billion, apples and pears - by $1 billion.
But for the state, the questions sound more acute and profound: what is needed in order to avoid dependence on the unfriendly actions of partner countries in the future, is Russia's agriculture capable of ensuring the country's food security, and most importantly, who will do it? Today, the village, like no other industry, is poorly staffed with specialists, and therefore one of the most important positions that requires attention is the personnel component of the agrarian cluster. It should be based on high-quality education that meets the highest requirements for modern production.
Real statistics
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The territory of Russia exceeds 17 million square meters. kilometers, of which 400 million hectares, or 23.4 percent, are agricultural land. The demographic resources of rural areas are 38 million people - 27 percent total strength population, including labor resources - 23.6 million. According to the collection "Russia in numbers". |
Agrarian educational institutions are among the oldest in Russia that have accumulated a rich heritage. Over the past two hundred years, traditions have appeared in agricultural education, which are historically formed ideas, practical actions that are passed down from generation to generation and contribute to the effective implementation of the country's primary tasks. For two centuries of work schools trained more than a million specialists for the Russian countryside.
Today, workers for the agro-industrial complex are trained by vocational schools and lyceums of the system of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation. 59 universities, 25 institutions of additional vocational education and 162 institutions of secondary vocational education subordinate to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation. In them, according to the Ministry Agriculture, about 460 thousand people study. More than 87 percent of the total number of students receive agricultural specialties, the rest - specialties necessary for the development of rural areas and their infrastructure. But at the same time, the Russian agro-industrial complex lacks about 80 thousand specialists with higher education. It would seem, what is the problem: should the industry have more than enough graduates? However, the real picture is far from statistical: young people do not go to the countryside.
Today, the earth employs mainly semi-professional personnel who have acquired skills and abilities in the workplace, who do not have the basics of scientific knowledge in their profession. This is especially true for private farms, where the most common method is "trial and error". In practice, only a third of university and technical school graduates come to work in agricultural organizations. Even fewer remain in the countryside: in various specialties, from 2 to 18 percent of those studying at the expense of the federal budget. Meanwhile, the need of domestic enterprises for top-level specialists is as follows: to fill the positions of heads of organizations - 8.6 thousand people, chief agronomists - 9.7 thousand, chief livestock specialists - 10.1 thousand, chief veterinarians - 10.4 thousand. , chief engineers - 13.8 thousand, chief economists - 6.2 thousand, chief accountants - 13.2 thousand. There is a high need for mid-level specialists and people with working professions.
The current workforce in the agricultural sector is aging in general. In recent years, a significant part of workers in mass professions, including those employed, have entered the pre-retirement age. manual labor in crop production, animal husbandry and other fields of activity. Freed places are unattractive for young people. There are many factors that discourage young professionals from living and working in the countryside. Hard work is one of the reasons. No wonder the editor and novelist Edgar Howe remarked: “A peasant, even if he decides to mess around, gets up with roosters to start this business early.” rural labor It is also considered not prestigious because of the seasonality of work and low pay. Earning depends on products sold, although labor costs and investments may be different for the same volume of production. As confirmed by the data of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, in 2013 the average monthly wage in agriculture slightly exceeded 14.5 thousand rubles, which is two times less than the average for all sectors of the economy.
The income gap between urban and rural areas is widening. Poverty, which destroys the labor and genetic potential of the village, remains a mass phenomenon. It can be said that poverty is concentrated in rural areas, which account for 42 percent of the total poor (in terms of disposable resources) in Russia, while the rural population accounts for 27 percent of the total population of the country.
By the way, the fact that universities are concentrated mainly in large cities is an important circumstance that becomes an obstacle for school graduates from the rural hinterland, whose “ start-up capital" less. It is extremely difficult for them to study. That is, a fairly significant part of the students are city dwellers, who are unlikely to go to work in the countryside after graduation. Moreover, the level of general optimism among rural youth aged 14 to 24 when they enter an independent life, according to the results of sociological studies, is low - 48.8 percent, and it is based on moving from countryside in town. Half of the students graduation classes rural schools today are not interested in labor training in the agricultural profile, only 15 percent express a desire to be highly qualified specialists, and only 9 percent seek to obtain an agricultural profession.
Young people are frightened off by the insignificance of prospects both in career and social plans. As a result, the share of people working in agriculture, forestry and fisheries in the industry's employed population decreased from 48 percent in 1992 to 27 percent in 2009. Experts note that the strategic goals of agrarian education should be closely linked to the problems of solving the social problems of rural areas. A hundred years ago, our well-known economist Alexander Chayanov emphasized that agriculture in Russia cannot be considered only as an activity that brings income and subsistence to those who are engaged in it. This is a way of life, and if it begins to change under the influence of any factors, this will directly affect the efficiency of the industry as a whole.
The attractiveness of work for young people is constrained by investment and technological factors. Modern production in the countryside is more an exception than a rule, hence the low level of labor productivity in the industry: according to various estimates, five to ten times less than in the most developed countries world, and two times lower than the average in the domestic economy. According to experts, the situation requires drastic measures in order not to pass the point of no return. Already today, almost a quarter of agricultural land, including about 30 percent of arable land, is subject to water and wind erosion. Every year as a result of non-agricultural economic activity about 50 thousand hectares of land are destroyed, and the scale of these destructions exceeds the areas of recultivated territories. There is a degradation of the country's forest fund, which is associated not only with its irrational use, but also with more frequent fires, which occur more than 18 thousand a year.
Meanwhile, 9 percent of the world's agricultural land is concentrated in Russia. As Deputy Minister of Agriculture of Russia Alexander Petrikov emphasized:
A country with such a potential, by definition, must have advanced agricultural production, education and science. Otherwise, dependence on foreign supplies, including technologies, increases. Taking into account the growing need in the world agri-food markets for products, the growth of the world population and the potential opportunity to involve our huge land wealth in economic circulation, the tasks of developing agricultural education in Russia are becoming global.
A tangle of problems
It should be noted that Russian educational institutions today have a highly qualified teaching staff, experienced specialists with scientific knowledge and strong business ties with enterprises and agricultural holdings. But science has not yet recovered from the crisis of the 1990s. At that time, the level of budget allocations for the Russian Agricultural Academy did not exceed 30 percent of the need. As a result, only in 1992-1997 the number of research personnel decreased from 30 to 14 thousand people. The outflow of young qualified specialists was especially significant. The dynamics of these indicators allows us to talk about a threefold reduction in the scientific and technical potential of the domestic agricultural sector.
These years turned out to be difficult for agriculture itself, which experienced a 40-50 percent drop in production volumes, unprecedented for peacetime. In the Soviet Union, this was only registered as a result of the Great Patriotic War when the best agricultural regions of the country were ruined. Even in the devastatingly defeated Germany and Japan, despite widespread destruction, the fall in agricultural production was only about 30 percent. During the critical years of collectivization, agricultural production in the USSR decreased by only 14 percent, but the 1990s dealt the country a severe blow. The data of the State Statistics Committee of Russia show that in the period between population censuses (1989-2002), about 179 thousand rural settlements were depopulated.
Only after 2001 did the first tangible signs of stabilization and revival of the agrarian economy emerge. However, even now the majority of agricultural enterprises remain unprofitable, unable not only to introduce innovations, but also to conduct a normal reproduction process. In educational and scientific activity the changes turned out to be more tangible and significant - a large-scale modernization began. Today, the main attention is paid to the study of market economy and entrepreneurship, innovation and foreign economic activity, management, legal support of the agro-industrial complex, taxation and lending, the study and creation of modern resource-saving and environmentally friendly technologies. Educational institutions master new educational technologies. But there are still many problems that negatively affect the quality vocational training, retraining and advanced training of managers and specialists, personnel of mass professions, in general, on the staffing of the agro-industrial complex. The question of questions is morally obsolete and poorly updated material and technical funds. The industry needs a thorough technical re-equipment of the educational process with the simultaneous use of new educational technologies.
Not strong enough connection educational institutions with agricultural enterprises, and the content of education does not fully meet the requirements that employers place today on the level of professional competence of graduates. Students experience difficulties with internships. Previously, the educational and experimental farms of higher educational institutions were the production base for students and specialists undergoing retraining. Today, as a result of the agrarian reforms carried out in the country, part of the educational farms have lost their status, and the majority have separated from universities and become independent state unitary enterprises. But since the amount of state support has decreased, production has become unprofitable. In this regard, many farms have drastically reduced the area under crops and the number of livestock. Educational farms have reduced the base of practice for university students, and the departments of higher educational institutions have reduced the number of experiments and experiments carried out in the fields and farms of training and experimental farms. As a result, the introduction into production of new varieties of agricultural plants, livestock breeds, and modern highly industrial technologies has decreased. In Russian agrarian science, only in certain scientific areas are researches close to world analogues or even setting the world level. The practical effectiveness of these studies is extremely low: according to various estimates, annually up to 40-50 percent of completed scientific and technical developments remain unclaimed by agricultural production. This is due to both the lack of an effective organizational and economic management mechanism innovative activities that encourages the developer to create innovative projects, and the consumer to use them, and the low orientation of science to the needs of practice.
We must not forget that education is not only higher educational institutions. In the agricultural sector, more than in any other, continuity is very important if we want the Russian village not to become empty. Today, there is no systematic work in the industry to organize continuous training, coordinate advanced training and retraining of personnel. Despite the arrival of innovations and the globalization of modern society, many traditional technologies are still preserved in the countryside, where specialists are required at the level of primary vocational education. It is necessary to raise the prestige of peasant labor, on which the agrarian economy of any state rests. Experts believe that in order to maintain continuity, it is necessary to coordinate the curricula of educational institutions at all levels. The rural school should also fit into the structure. And of course, ideally, not a single link in this chain should be infringed. In the meantime, we can state that there is a significant difference in funding.
Rural schools and technical schools were overtaken by a crisis that did not allow them to update their material base and carry out computerization in a timely manner, - explains the director of the Kamensk-Uralsky agro-industrial technical school, corresponding member of the Academy of Vocational Education Sergey Nekrasov. - Most of us are training on twenty-five-year-old technology, we have not seen any models or visual aids for a long time (most likely, they simply stopped producing them). In addition, if earlier we were surrounded by profitable collective farms and state farms that could help improve the material base, accept students for internships, and pay additional targeted scholarships, now we are surrounded by farmers who are simply not able to provide any assistance to vocational education. . And this is despite the fact that each rural school or technical school serves three or four districts, and the agro-industrial complex still continues to be the basis of a poorly diversified rural economy.
The standard of living of employees of educational institutions remains low, while, as teachers note, wages in the system of agricultural education are lower than in other educational institutions. That is, to work in this area, you must be a great enthusiast. The outflow of teaching staff slows down the modernization of the system that has begun.
In agricultural education, according to many experts, there are obvious contradictions. Educational organizations are funded from various sources- local, regional, federal, which makes it difficult to concentrate funds on training the most important personnel for specific conditions. In addition, there is no information about the needs for workers of various skill levels: masters, specialists, bachelors, employees with secondary specialized and primary vocational education - machine operators and livestock breeders. The fact that educational institutions are under the jurisdiction of two ministries is also considered a minus by experts. And these are far from all the painful issues that have accumulated in the industry.
What's the rating?
According to experts, education can become the locomotive that can pull the Russian countryside out of a protracted systemic crisis. But given the current state of affairs in the agricultural sector and the demographic decline, a completely natural question arises: where will those productive forces come from, which, having received an education, will ensure the advancement of agricultural science and economics?
The situation is understood at the highest level. The state pays more and more attention to the agrarian sector of the economy, supporting the village with national projects and funded programs. Agricultural enterprises began to motivate specialists: young people who remain to live and work in the countryside are encouraged with housing, grants, and salary supplements. The government of the country approved the concept of sustainable development of rural areas Russian Federation for the period up to 2020, which defines the main goals of the state agricultural policy and development of the fishery complex in the long term. The document defines the key problems and financial, economic, legal and organizational measures to bring rural areas to a qualitatively new level of development, providing a comprehensive, balanced solution to economic, social and environmental problems while maintaining the natural resource and historical and cultural potential of rural areas. The main goal is to raise the level and quality of life Russian village to make it more attractive. Among the measures named scientific and staffing of the village.
In principle, the system of higher agricultural education is ready for this. The Ministry of Agriculture continues to work on its optimization. According to experts of the department, positive experience has been gained in the reorganization of universities in the form of amalgamation. For example, on the basis of agricultural and veterinary institutes in Omsk, in 1994, the Omsk State Agrarian University named after V.I. P.A. Stolypin, in the city of Saratov as part of the Saratov State Agrarian University. N.I. Vavilov in 1998 included the Academy of Veterinary Medicine, the Agricultural Academy and the Agricultural Engineering University. Today, these united universities are among the largest and most efficiently functioning educational institutions subordinate to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation. In addition, over the past ten years, 22 technical schools, 41 advanced training institutes, and 1 research institute have been attached to agricultural universities. For several years, the issue of merging industry-specific higher educational institutions located in one subject of the Russian Federation has been discussed in order to create large multidisciplinary agrotechnological universities, which will ensure the complexity of solving educational and scientific tasks set by the realities of the time.
There are prerequisites for this. According to the assessment of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, which monitored the activities of federal public institutions higher vocational education in 2012, 46 percent of agricultural universities were classified as “having signs of inefficiency”. But it should be noted that these educational institutions have a number of features due to industry specifics. Firstly, all agricultural universities have lower USE scores. This is due not to their inefficiency, but to the low prestige of agricultural professions. Graduates of rural schools mostly enter agricultural universities - more than 60 percent, whose average USE score is lower than that of urban schoolchildren. Second, agricultural schools perform worse on some financial criteria, due to historical underfunding. In particular, on average, 25-30 percent less financial resources are spent per student agrarian from the federal budget than in other universities, and the low profitability of agricultural organizations does not allow them to attract funds for scientific research.
The Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation conducted its sectoral monitoring among subordinate universities. According to the results of the industry assessment, it was recognized that 14 universities need optimization. Therefore, the planned enlargement of educational institutions continues. As the ministry assured, this entails an increase in the volume of funding for educational and scientific processes, an increase in the average wages scientific and pedagogical workers, the elimination of duplication of similar areas of training, increasing the economic efficiency of universities. It is necessary to update the material and technical base of educational institutions, since the physical deterioration of equipment is about 70 percent. According to the specialists of the ministry, the directions of educational, scientific and other activities carried out by each university will be preserved after the merger and will be further developed in the newly created universities on their basis. It is supposed to create student campuses (institutes) with specialized training. Of course, deep historical traditions and the uniqueness of each educational institution will be taken into account. Academic councils, faculties and departments of reorganized universities are invited to develop the concept of a united university.
But agricultural universities require not only structural changes. A deep modernization of agricultural education is needed to meet the realities of today. The lack of qualified young personnel in the agro-industrial complex is half the trouble. Today, the village needs a worker with the most up-to-date knowledge. Competent specialists are the key to effective work, additional profit and stability of the organization. Especially professionals are important in the conditions of improving technologies in modern industries. It should be borne in mind that the demand of most employers is aimed at obtaining a ready-made highly qualified, experienced specialist. This poses new challenges for universities.
Modernization
The modernization that has begun in education is designed to relieve the acuteness of problems or eliminate them altogether. This topic is multifaceted and will be relevant for a long time. The main directions of modernization of agricultural education are to ensure the availability of education for rural youth, the training of qualified personnel of the appropriate level and profile, competitive in the labor market, capable of ensuring the effective management of the agro-industrial complex. The modern concept of education includes the need to develop an outlook covering the entire system of network relationships between various components of the agrosphere.
Modernization should be considered as a complex innovative process, including solving the problems of improving the quality of education and its effective organization, a significant increase in the level of educational and methodological work, material and information process. The most significant changes have taken place in higher education, where the transition to a tiered system, including bachelor's and master's programs, is formally completed. Students should have new motivations for obtaining professional and general cultural competencies. This is facilitated by new learning technologies, the use of active and interactive methods, involvement in the implementation educational programs employers. Universities will have to improve interaction with employers and their associations not only in the development and implementation of basic and additional programs, but also in assessing the competencies of graduates. Another direction in the complex of modernization measures is raising the status of several agricultural universities. On a competitive basis, the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation has identified four innovative universities - RGAU-MSHA them. K.A. Timiryazev, Kuban State Agrarian University, Oryol State Agrarian University and Stavropol State Agrarian University, which received state funding to create an innovative educational environment.
The creation of a model of interaction between agricultural educational institutions, business and the state will allow the innovative component in research activities to be supplemented by the development of direct ties with organizations of the agro-industrial complex, - said Lyudmila Khoruzhy, Dean of the Accounting and Finance Faculty of the RGAU-MSHA them. K.A. Timiryazev, - first of all, with strategic partners from among largest companies, agricultural holdings for the production and processing of agricultural products. As a result, competitive fundamental research will be developed, and breakthrough applied developments will be implemented on their basis, followed by commercialization, which will ensure further strengthening of agricultural universities.
The rectors of many agricultural universities in Russia highlight the following basic points of the platform for the development of agricultural education in Russia: the education system should be built on an active combination of practice and theory, while universities should become centers for the development and implementation of various innovative methods of organizing and managing production. Student learning with help the latest technologies, can be a good specialist only if the theory is supported by qualitative production experience. Thus, the question arises again about the preservation of educational experimental farms in the structure of educational institutions and the organization of other forms of practical training. Each school has its own approaches. In particular, the rector of the Nizhny Novgorod State Agricultural Academy Alexander Samodelkin says:
Front teaching staff the task was set - to teach students to be not only narrow specialists in their field, but also to have an idea of the related processes so that they can start a new business from scratch, develop production, and be competitive. We plan to give this knowledge in the form of both the main course of lectures, and practical exercises, and additional education, and in the form of weekly open thematic conferences. It is obvious that in modern conditions one cannot do without highly qualified personnel. Thanks to regional and federal programs, as well as the arrival of private investors, agriculture is developing, and young professionals have good prospects for self-realization. Representatives of large farms began to come to us who would like to find qualified personnel for themselves, and from about the third year students can already be oriented to a specific enterprise and work there. Leaders are interested in knowledgeable young people, therefore they provide an opportunity for practice during training, sometimes they also provide scholarship support.
The most important aspect of the modernization of agricultural education in Russia, according to experts, can be its international component. In the last decade, a number of steps have been taken to meaningfully modernize vocational education, improve its quality, and integrate Russian education in the international educational space. First of all, we are talking about Russia's entry into the Bologna process, increasing the flexibility of educational programs, overcoming early narrow specialization, and introducing federal state educational standards for vocational education. Domestic educational institutions should not be passive, but the most active participants in the process of internationalization of education, increase the export of educational services and build such a balanced system of relationships with foreign partners that would reflect the interests of Russia.
It must be remembered that historically Russia has always been an agrarian country, and its well-being largely depended on the effective development of agriculture. The main task of the development of the country as the largest world power is the development of territories, in which agrarian education plays a key role. At the beginning of the 21st century, when the agro-industrial complex of Russia entered a new period of its development, the solution of issues of ensuring the country's food security, the preservation and revival of the Russian village largely depends on the qualifications and competence of specialists.
Department of Economic Theory, National and World Economy
COURSE WORK
By discipline
WORLD ECONOMY
On the topic of:
Agricultural Development Trends in the World Economy
2010
INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………………….3
1.1 The concept of agriculture and its structure………………………………5
1.2 Main features of agricultural development……………………..8
1.3 The role of agriculture in the modern world economy…………...12
2.1 Problems of agricultural development……………………………………..15
2.2 Agricultural development trends………………………………….18
3.1 Prospects for the development of agriculture in the world………………………21
3.2 Prospects for the development of agriculture in Russia…………………….25
CONCLUSION………………………………………………………………...27
LIST OF USED LITERATURE………………………...29
INTRODUCTION
The relevance of this work is determined by a number of factors. Agriculture is not only the oldest and most dependent on natural conditions branch of the economy, but also the way of life of most of the world's population, this is the most extensive vital branch of the national economy, which determines the standard of living of people.
Under these conditions, the study of further trends in the development of world agriculture, which today employs half of the world's population, becomes as relevant as possible.
The object of this course is world agriculture, which is a system consisting of agricultural industries of all countries, characterized by a huge variety of agricultural relations, different volumes of agricultural products, different composition of marketable and gross output, methods and methods of farming and animal husbandry.
Agriculture creates food for the population, raw materials for many industries (food, feed, textile, pharmaceutical, perfumery, etc.), reproduces living draft power (horse breeding, reindeer breeding, etc.), includes agricultural sectors (field farming, vegetable growing , fruit growing, viticulture, etc.) and animal husbandry (cattle breeding, pig breeding, sheep breeding, poultry farming, etc.), the correct combination of which ensures the rational use of material and labor resources.
And, finally, in this industry there is a direct interaction of man with nature, on which human health, its psychological, nervous, emotional state, and the like, largely depend.
The purpose of this term paper to uncover modern tendencies development of world agriculture. Based on the goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:
To study the concept of agriculture and the main features of its development;
Reflect current trends and prospects for the development of agriculture.
Chapter 1. Agriculture and its role in the world economy
1.1. The concept of agriculture and its structure
Agriculture is the most important branch of the world economy. Its main purpose is to provide the population with food, and light and food industry - with raw materials.
Agriculture is the only branch of material production that depends on natural conditions such as climate, environment and water availability. Also important economic forces, such as market prices and production costs, as well as country policies including targeted subsidies to grow (or, conversely, not to grow - to avoid overproduction) certain crops.
The main branches of agriculture:
1. Animal husbandry is widespread almost everywhere. The location of its branches depends, first of all, on the forage base. Three leading branches of animal husbandry: cattle breeding, pig breeding, sheep breeding.
Cattle breeding - breeding of cattle (cattle), the largest number of cattle is in Foreign Asia and Latin America.
In animal husbandry, there are three main areas:
Dairy (typical for densely populated areas of Europe, North America);
Meat and dairy (common in the forest and forest-steppe zone);
Meat (dry regions of the temperate and subtropical zones). The largest livestock of cattle is possessed by: India, Argentina, Brazil, USA, China, Russia.
Pig breeding is widespread everywhere, regardless of natural conditions. It tends to densely populated areas, large cities, and areas of intensive potato growing. The leader is China (almost half of the world's livestock), followed by the United States, Russia, Germany, and Brazil.
Sheep breeding predominates in countries and regions with extensive pastures. The largest number of sheep in Australia, China, New Zealand, Russia, India, Turkey, Kazakhstan.
Leadership in the production of livestock products belongs to economically developed countries and is distributed as follows:
Meat production - USA, China, Russia;
Oil production - Russia, Germany, France;
Milk production - USA, India, Russia.
The main exporters of livestock products:
Poultry meat - France, USA, Netherlands;
Lamb - New Zealand, Australia, UK;
Pork - the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Canada;
Beef - Australia, Germany, France;
Oil - the Netherlands, Finland, Germany;
Wool - Australia, New Zealand, Argentina.
2. Crop production is the most important branch of agriculture in the world. It is developed almost everywhere, with the exception of the tundra, arctic deserts and highlands.
Due to the large variety of agricultural crops, the composition of crop production is quite complex. In crop production, there are:
Grain farming; production of industrial crops;
Vegetable growing; gardening;
Production of fodder crops, etc.
Grain crops include wheat, rye, barley, buckwheat, oats, etc. Leading among them are wheat, corn and rice, which account for 4/5 of the gross harvest of all grains. The main producers of the three main crops are:
Wheat - China, USA, Russia, France, Canada, Ukraine;
Rice - China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Bangladesh;
Corn - USA, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina.
Among the main exporters are the USA, Canada, Australia (wheat), Thailand, USA (rice), Argentina, USA (corn). Grain is mainly imported by Japan and Russia. Other food crops include:
Oilseeds - soybeans, sunflowers, peanuts, rapeseed, sesame, castor beans, as well as olive tree, oil and coconut palm. The main producers of oilseeds are the USA (soybeans), Russia (sunflower), China (rapeseed), Brazil (peanuts).
Tuber crops - potatoes. The largest collection of potatoes in Europe, India, China and the USA.
Saccharones - sugar cane, sugar beet. The main producers of sugar cane are Brazil, India, Cuba; sugar beet - Ukraine, France, Russia, Poland.
Vegetable crops. Distributed in all countries of the world.
Tonic cultures - tea, coffee, cocoa. The main exporter of tea is India, coffee - Brazil, cocoa - Côte d'Ivoire.
Fibrous crops (cotton, flax, sisal, jute), natural rubber, and tobacco stand out among the non-food crops.
The main exporters of cotton are the USA, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, China, India, and Egypt.
The largest tobacco producer is China, India, Brazil, Italy, Bulgaria, Turkey, Cuba, and Japan produce it in much smaller volumes.
3. Fishing belongs to the smallest part of agriculture.
1.2 Main features of agriculture in different countries of the world
The role of agriculture in the economy of different countries and regions varies greatly. The geography of agriculture is distinguished by an exceptional variety of forms of production and agrarian relations. Moreover, all its types can be combined into two groups:
1. Commodity agriculture - is characterized by high productivity, intensity of development, high level of specialization. Commodity agriculture includes both intensive farming and animal husbandry, horticulture and horticulture, as well as extensive fallow and fallow type agriculture and pasture animal husbandry;
2. Consumer agriculture - characterized by low productivity, extensive development, lack of specialization. Consumer agriculture includes more backward plow and hoe farming, grazing, nomadic pastoralism, as well as gathering, hunting and fishing.
High-commodity, deeply specialized agriculture prevails in developed countries. It has reached the highest possible level of mechanization and chemicalization. The average yield in these countries is 35-40 centners per hectare. The agro-industrial complex in them has taken the form of agribusiness, which gives the industry an industrial character.
In developing countries, traditional low-commodity (consumer) farming prevails with an average grain yield of 15-20 centners per hectare and below. The low-commodity sector is represented by small and tiny farms growing consumer crops; along with this, there is also a highly commercial economy, represented by large and well-organized plantations (banana plantations in Central America, coffee - in Brazil).
Commercial agriculture
Consumer agriculture
Is different:
Is different:
High productivity
Low productivity
Intensity of development
Extensive development
high level
Farm specializations
Lack of specialization
Includes:
Intensive agriculture and animal husbandry with a large volume of harvesting
backward plow and hoe agriculture
Gardening and vegetable growing
Pasture animal husbandry
Pasture animal husbandry
Nomadic and semi-nomadic pastoralism
Extensive fallow and fallow farming
Gathering, hunting and fishing
Table 1. The main differences between commercial agriculture and consumer agriculture.
The agriculture of developed countries is characterized by a sharp predominance of commercial agriculture. It develops on the basis of mechanization, chemicalization of production, the use of biotechnology, and the latest breeding methods.
Technical re-equipment and intensification of production led to an increase in the share of large farms with a narrow specialization. At the same time, agriculture is industrial in nature, since it is included in a single agro-industrial complex with processing, storage, transportation and marketing of products, as well as the production of fertilizers and equipment (the so-called agribusiness).
Agriculture in developing countries is more heterogeneous and includes:
> traditional sector - consumer agriculture, mainly crop production with small peasant farms providing themselves with food;
> modern sector - commercial agriculture with well-organized plantations and farms, using the best land and hired labor, using modern technology, fertilizers, the main products of which are oriented to the foreign market.
The high share of the traditional sector in the agriculture of developing countries determines their significant lag in the development of this industry.
As a branch of agriculture, agriculture has the following main features:
1. The economic process of reproduction is intertwined with the natural process of growth and development of living organisms, developing on the basis of biological laws.
2. The cyclical process of natural growth and development of plants and animals has determined the seasonality of agricultural work.
3. Unlike industry, the technological process in agriculture is closely connected with nature, where land acts as the main means of production.
FAO experts note that 78% of the earth's surface is experiencing serious natural limitations for the development of agriculture, 13% of the area is characterized by low productivity, 6% medium and 3% high. Currently, about 11% of all land is plowed up, another 24% is used for pastures. There are several thermal zones, each of which is characterized by a specific set of crop and livestock industries:
The cold belt occupies vast areas in the north of Eurasia and North America. Agriculture here is limited by lack of heat and permafrost. Plant growing here is possible only in closed ground conditions, and reindeer husbandry is developing on low-productive pastures.
The cool belt covers vast areas of Eurasia and North America, as well as a narrow strip in the south of the Andes in South America. Insignificant heat resources limit the range of crops that can be grown here (early crops - gray bread, vegetables, some root crops, early potatoes).
The temperate zone in the southern hemisphere is represented in Patagonia, on the coast of Chile, the islands of Tasmania and New Zealand, and in the northern hemisphere it occupies almost all of Europe (except for the southern peninsulas, southern Siberia and Far East, Mongolia, Tibet, Northeast China, South Canada, Northeast USA. This is the belt of mass farming. Arable land occupies almost all the territories suitable for the relief, its specific area reaches 60-70%. There is a wide range of cultivated crops: wheat, barley, rye, oats, flax, potatoes, vegetables. Corn, sunflower, rice, grapes, fruit and fruit trees grow in the southern part of the belt. Pastures are limited in area, they dominate in the mountains and arid zones, where transhumance and camel breeding are developed.
The warm belt corresponds to the subtropical geographical zone and is represented on all continents except Antarctica: it covers the Mediterranean, most of the United States, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, southern Africa and Australia, and southern China. Two crops are grown here a year: in winter - crops of the temperate zone (cereals, vegetables), in summer - tropical annuals (cotton) or perennials (olive tree, citrus fruits, tea, walnuts, figs, etc.). It is dominated by low-productive, highly degraded pastures from uncontrolled grazing.
The hot belt occupies vast expanses of Africa, South America, northern and central Australia, the Malay Archipelago, the Arabian Peninsula, and South Asia. Coffee and chocolate trees, date palm, sweet potato, cassava, etc. are grown.
1.3 The role of agriculture in the modern world economy
Agriculture is not only the oldest and most dependent on natural conditions branch of the economy, but also the way of life of most of the world's population.
Agriculture is the most extensive vital branch of the national economy, which determines the standard of living of people.
Agricultural economics studies technological (agriculture, crop production, agrochemistry, land reclamation, mechanization and electrification, animal husbandry, storage and processing of agricultural products, and others) and economic (mathematics, political science, labor protection, accounting) sciences.
Economics of agriculture provides a basis for the study of disciplines: organization of agricultural production, analysis of economic activity, financing and lending, agricultural production management, international economic relations, agricultural risks and others.
The study of science is based on the dialectical method, which involves the study of the process of development in a state of continuous movement of change. For the analysis of economic material, use various methods economic research: statistical (correlation, dispersion, index, regression), monographic, economic and mathematical, graphic and others.
Agriculture is a donor for other sectors of the economy, a source of replenishment of the national income for solving the country's urgent problems. The basic national economic proportions and the growth of the entire country's economy largely depend on the state and rate of development of agriculture.
In the early stages of the economic history of mankind, the natural conditions of the territory - climate, relief, soil fertility - played a decisive role in the formation of local features of agricultural production (a set of cultivated crops, types of domestic animals, agricultural practices).
Economic skills of the population, the achieved level of socio-economic development, conditions international trade only later turned out to be decisive for the formation of local socio-economic differences of the territories involved in the world economy.
The role of agriculture in the economy of a country or region shows its structure and level of development. As indicators of the role of agriculture, the share of those employed in agriculture among the economically active population is used, as well as specific gravity agriculture in the structure of GDP. These figures are quite high in most developing countries, where more than half of EAN is employed in agriculture. Agriculture there follows an extensive path of development, that is, an increase in production is achieved by expanding the area under crops, increasing the number of livestock, and increasing the number of people employed in agriculture. In such countries, whose economies are of the agrarian type, the indicators of mechanization, chemicalization, melioration, etc. are low.
The agriculture of the developed countries of Europe and North America, which have entered the post-industrial stage, has reached the highest level. In agriculture, 2-6% of EAN are employed there. In these countries, the “green revolution” took place as early as the middle of the 20th century, agriculture is characterized by a scientifically based organization, increased productivity, the use of new technologies, agricultural machinery systems, pesticides and mineral fertilizers, the use of genetic engineering and biotechnology, robotics and electronics, that is, it is developing on an intensive path.
Similar progressive changes are also taking place in industrial countries, but the level of intensification in them is still much lower, and the share of people employed in agriculture is higher than in post-industrial ones.
At the same time, in developed countries there is a crisis of food overproduction, and in agrarian countries, on the contrary, one of the most acute problems is the food problem (the problem of malnutrition and hunger).
Global agriculture currently employs about 1.1 billion economically active population (EAP). And the agricultural industries provide food for billions of people. Agriculture is not only the oldest and most dependent on natural conditions branch of the economy, it is also the most extensive vital branch of the national economy, which determines the standard of living of people.
Chapter 2. The main trends in the development of agriculture in the world economy
2.1 Problems of agricultural development
First of all, it is necessary to characterize common features inherent in the current stage of development of agriculture in developing countries.
Scientific selection, the creation of high-yielding hybrid varieties of cereals have led to an increase in agricultural production in a number of developing countries. Other factors of the "Green Revolution" also contributed to this (a certain increase in the use of fertilizers, the expansion of irrigation works, an increase in mechanization, an increase in the qualifications of a part of the employed labor force, etc.). But they covered only a small part of the territory of the states participating in the "green revolution".
The main reason for the difficulties of these countries in the development of agriculture lies in the backwardness of their agrarian relations. Thus, a number of Latin American states are characterized by latifundia - extensive private land holdings that form the basis of landowner-type farms. In most countries of Asia and Africa, along with large farms owned by local and foreign capital, farms of the feudal and semi-feudal type are widespread, in a number of countries even with remnants of tribal relations. Communal landownership, which has its roots in ancient times, deserves special mention in this regard.
The motley and backward character of agrarian relations is combined with survivals in the sphere of social organization, the enormous influence of the institution of tribal and intertribal leaders, the wide spread of animism and various other beliefs. It is necessary to take into account many socio-psychological characteristics of the local population, in particular, the widespread consumerist, unproductive mentality. Remnants of the colonial past of many of these states are also having an effect.
The peculiarities of the agrarian system and other factors have led to the fact that the agriculture of many developing countries cannot satisfy their food needs. To date, the proportion of the population that does not receive the necessary nutrition remains very large.
Although the absolute and relative number of people suffering from malnutrition has declined, the total number of undernourished people remains enormous. According to various estimates, their number in the world is about 1 billion people. 20 million people die every year from malnutrition alone in developing countries.
Traditional diets in a number of countries do not contain enough calories, often do not have required amount proteins and fats. Their shortage affects people's health and the quality of the workforce. These trends are especially acute in the countries of South and East Asia.
The difficult situation with the development of agriculture and difficulties in providing food determine the problem of food security for many developing countries. The latter refers to the constant consumption of a sufficient amount of food to support the active life of people. The experts of the UN specialized organization FAO consider the world stocks from the last harvest equal to 17% of world consumption or sufficient to meet the needs for about two months to be the minimum level for ensuring food security.
Calculations by UN experts have shown that a significant part of developing countries have a very low self-sufficiency ratio. 24 states had a very low level of food security, 22 of them were African. The aggravation of the situation in a number of developing countries has necessitated the adoption of measures aimed at alleviating the food problem. An important tool for reducing the problem of hunger was food aid, that is, the transfer of resources on the terms of soft loans or in the form of gratuitous gifts.
The main food aid supplies go to the least developed countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. The main supplier is the USA. In recent years, the role of the EU countries has been growing, especially in relation to the least developed African and Asian states.
2.2 Agricultural development trends
The data discussed above testify to the great achievements of world agriculture and, at the same time, to considerable difficulties and contradictions in its development. modern development. According to the calculations of Russian specialists, agricultural production in the world increased from $415 billion in 1900 to $580 billion in 1929, $645 billion in 1938, $760 billion in 1950, and $2475 billion in 2000. The hierarchy of agricultural producers among developed countries in 2000 looked as follows: the United States was in first place with a volume of agricultural production of $175 billion; fourth - Germany - 52.5 billion dollars.
Although the world now produces more food than ever before, approximately 1 billion people, as already noted, are constantly hungry.
Mankind is looking for an optimal solution to the food problem. If we focus on the current level of nutrition of a US resident, then in 2030 there will be enough food resources for only 2.5 billion people, and the world's population by this time will be; amount to approximately 8.9 billion. And if we take the average consumption rates of the beginning of the 21st century, then by this time the modern level of India will be reached (450 g of grain per day per person). The redistribution of food resources can escalate into political conflicts.
Economists rightly consider unacceptable the spontaneity of the development of relations in the sphere of production, consumption and redistribution of food. Concerted action and the development of an international development strategy are needed. It contains four main areas.
The first is the expansion of the land fund. At the present stage, mankind effectively uses an average of about 0.34 hectares of arable land per person. But there are considerable reserves, and theoretically, one earthling has 4.69 hectares of land. Due to this reserve, the areas used in agriculture can actually be increased. But, firstly, the reserves are still limited, and secondly, part of the earth's surface is difficult to use or simply unsuitable for agricultural processing. And besides, for the operation to increase the area will require a lot of money.
As a result, the second direction is becoming much more important - increasing economic opportunities by increasing the efficiency of agricultural production. Scientists have calculated that if advanced technologies were used on all the areas now used, then at the present time agriculture could feed at least 12 billion people. But the reserves of efficiency achieved could continue to increase, in particular through the use of various biotechnologies and further progress in the development of genetics.
But a real way to increase economic efficiency can become only if social opportunities are expanded. This is the third direction of the development strategy, the main task of which is to carry out deep and consistent agrarian reforms in developing countries, taking into account the specific conditions in each of them. The purpose of the reforms is to overcome the backwardness of the existing agrarian structures. Wherein Special attention it is necessary to pay attention to the elimination of the negative consequences associated with the wide spread of primitive communal relations in a number of African countries, latifundism in Latin American countries, and the fragmentation of small peasant farms in Asian states.
When carrying out agrarian reforms, it is advisable to widely use the positive experience accumulated in developed countries, in particular, to improve the role of the state in the development of agriculture, especially by subsidizing the use of the latest technologies, various support for small and medium-sized farms, etc. The problem of cooperation deserves great attention while ensuring its voluntary character, variety of forms and material incentives participants.
One of the objectives of social reforms, combined with measures to improve economic efficiency, is to reduce the consumption gap between different groups of countries.
Obviously improvement state activities also affects the sphere of population reproduction, the growth of which can be more regulated using a variety of means.
And, finally, the fourth direction could be international cooperation and assistance from developed countries to the least developed. The purpose of this cooperation is not only to solve the most acute problems of food shortages, but also to stimulate the internal capabilities of developing states. And for this they need comprehensive assistance in developing not only the economy, but also education, healthcare, various branches of science and culture.
Chapter 3. Opportunities and priorities for the development of world agriculture
3.1 Prospects for the development of agriculture in the world
Looking to the future, we want to understand: is humanity threatened - in the near or distant future - by mass starvation, if one billion people are already suffering from it, according to the UN? Will agriculture have enough land, water and other natural resources to meet the food needs of every inhabitant of the planet at a level of at least 2700 kcal per day? Can agricultural innovation withstand dangerous climate change and the vagaries of nature? Finally, what kind of agricultural policy should the world community and each country develop in order to ensure highly efficient, sustainable agriculture?
Long-range forecast calculations, jointly developed by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and FAO, provide estimates of markets for basic agricultural products 10 years into the future. If we accept as a hypothesis that in the longer term the same trends and the degree of influence of various factors on each other will continue, then it is possible to construct a scenario for the development of the situation in world agriculture based on existing forecasts.
There are several options for forecasting the development of world and Russian agriculture for the period up to 2050. Four hypotheses were put forward as prerequisites for this forecast.
First. The sown area under the main agricultural crops (wheat, corn, rice) will not decrease, but will even increase. This is one of the main lessons that all countries must learn from the food crisis in 2007-2009. Otherwise, many countries and humanity as a whole doom themselves to the constant repetition of such crises.
Second. In all countries, more and more resources will be spent on the introduction of the achievements of scientific and technological progress in agriculture, which will increase the efficiency of the use of resources, primarily land and water.
Third. Developing countries in many regions will increase their protein intake at the expense of meat and dairy products. It follows from this that an increasing share of the grown plant resources will be used for fodder.
Fourth. In most countries, the trend will continue to use agricultural resources primarily for food purposes. The only exceptions will be those countries where there are special natural and political conditions that allow them to efficiently use land resources for the production of biofuels. These countries include, first of all, the USA (ethanol from corn), Brazil (ethanol from sugar cane) and, in the future, a number of countries in Southeast Asia that will be able to master efficient production biodiesel from palm oil.
What and how much humanity will eat. Wheat production is projected at 806 million tons by 2020 (an increase of 18% compared to 2008), and in 2050 - 950 million tons (an increase of 40% compared to 2008). Over the same period, according to UN forecasts, The population will increase by about 30-35%. Consequently, the per capita supply of grain in the wheat segment may slightly increase.
In developing countries, an increase in the share of imports in total wheat consumption from 24-26% to 30% can be expected due to the increasing use of wheat in animal husbandry. The highest production growth rates are projected in the least developed countries (2.8 times in 2050 compared to 2008). Only in this case they will be able to reduce their dependence on imports from 60% to 50%. However, this level cannot be considered normal. Required certain actions from developed countries, which could contribute to an increase in wheat production directly in this group of states.
Now we present some results of forecasting the development of the dairy and meat industries. It is estimated that world milk production will increase at a rate faster than population growth. By 2050, world milk production may reach 1222 million tons, which is almost 80% higher than in 2008. Developing countries should make the greatest contribution to this increase, in which production will increase by almost 2.25 times. However, even in the distant future, the gap in the productivity of dairy farming between developed and developing civilizations will remain significant. Developed countries should make some efforts to accelerate the introduction of technological progress in the dairy industry of developing countries. In developing countries, some reduction in the number of cows can be expected with a significant increase in their productivity. This will solve two problems: to increase the production of plant-based food resources available to the population, and to increase the share of milk protein in the diet of the poor.
The most acute and complex problem remains the production of meat, which is the main factor in improving the nutrition of the world's population.
Forecast calculations show that by 2050 the production and consumption of beef may increase by more than 60%, pork - by 77%, poultry meat - 2.15 times. The rate of growth in meat production may exceed the rate of population growth. The possibility of outstripping growth of the meat industry in developing countries, which will be able to meet domestic demand through own production. In the least developed countries, under these assumptions, it can be predicted that a significant part of the demand for beef and pork will be met by domestic production, while 40% of poultry meat consumption will be covered by imports.
The presented forecasts for the production of the main types of agricultural products suggest that if agriculture is transferred to an innovative, resource-saving development trajectory over the foreseeable 40-year period, the threat of a protracted global food crisis can be significantly reduced. An even more urgent problem for the world community is to overcome the terrible threat of famine.
Various forecasts of food consumption in the world indicate an increase in its level per capita. However, this growth will slow down. For 30 years (from 1970 to 2000) food consumption in the world (in energy equivalent) increased from 2411 to 2789 kcal per person per day, i.e. the increase was 16% or 0.48% on average per year. According to the forecast for 2001 - 2030, consumption will increase to 2950 kcal, but the increase over 30 years will be only 9% or 0.28% on average per year.
By 2050, consumption is projected to increase to the level of 3130 kcal per person per day, and the increase over 20 years will be 3% or 0.15% per year. At the same time, developing countries will increase consumption 5-6 times faster than developed countries. Thanks to such dynamics, the difference in the level of food consumption between different civilizations will be reduced, which should become the basis for a more harmonious and socially stable development of mankind.
Currently, only half of the population is provided with the possibility of good nutrition. 30 years ago this category included only 4% of the population. By the middle of the century, about 90% of the world's population will be able to consume food at a level of more than 2,700 kcal per day per capita.
Achieving such production parameters is a super-task for world agriculture, given that the transition to an innovative development path is associated with high costs and risks.
3.2 Prospects for the development of agriculture in Russia
According to the dynamics of the development of markets for the main types of food, calculations were made for Russia. All forecast indicators were calculated for a ten-year horizon from 2009 to 2018. A feature of this forecast is that it used macroeconomic assumptions that were calculated by the World Bank for all countries of the world.
When compiling the forecast, the hypothesis was used that in the next 10 years the GDP growth rate in Russia will be at the level of 4.5%. (The global crisis has already made its own adjustments to these and other macroeconomic estimates. Nevertheless, the presented forecast indicates the objective potential of the Russian agricultural sector).
In accordance with the calculations made according to the baseline forecast, wheat production in Russia will gradually increase and reach 54 million tons by 2018. This assessment is largely related to the hypothesis of low yield growth rates (20 c/ha by 2018). At the same time, the average export volumes in the first half of the forecast period will decrease to 8 million tons, and then grow to 12 million in 2018. However, according to the estimates of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture and many Russian experts, yield growth will occur at a faster pace, which will ensure large volumes of wheat production and its export.
An increase in the production of all types of meat is predicted. By 2018, the total meat production will increase to 8.5 million tons (in slaughter weight), including: beef - 2.0 million tons, pork - 3.2 million tons, poultry meat - 3.4 million t Due to the increase in production, a decrease in imports for all types of meat is predicted. The largest reduction is estimated for pork, where the value of imports by 2018 will be only 130 thousand tons. Beef imports will decrease to 480 thousand tons, and for poultry meat - up to 1100 thousand. import of meat. Currently, there are already expert assessments in Russia that suggest that there will be no need to import pork and poultry meat after 2012.
Forecasts for the development of the dairy sector are based on the hypothesis that existing conservative trends will continue. By 2018, milk production will increase only to the level of 40 million tons. At the same time, the number of dairy cows will increase slightly (up to 10 million head), milk yield will be about 3900 kg per cow per year. Russian experts believe that the implementation of state programs aimed at supporting the dairy sector will be able to change the situation in this industry, which will reach higher rates.
These are some of the results of predicting the dynamics and structural changes in the agrarian sector of the Russian Federation. Russia has a powerful competitive advantage: vast lands, including the most fertile chernozems, availability of water resources, a variety of natural and climatic zones and agricultural landscapes from north to south and from west to east. The main problems of the agricultural sector of the country's economy are technological backwardness in many industries and regions; chronic disparity in prices for agricultural products and means for their production; undeveloped social infrastructure of the village, which leads to the outflow of the rural population in many regions of the Russian Federation. However, according to international and Russian scientific centers, in the near future it is the agricultural sector of Russia that will become one of the main locomotives of the economy due to the modernization of agriculture and its transition to an innovative development path.
CONCLUSION
Agriculture remains one of the leading branches of material production in the world economy. Across the land, the quality of productive land varies significantly. Soil fertility depends on many natural factors. A survey conducted by the FAO found that on the prevailing part of the land, natural factors limit the possibility of farming.
The globalization of the economy, with all its contradictions and distortions, has the potential for the development of environmentally friendly and cost-effective agriculture. It is able to mitigate the global food crisis and prevent its worst form - mass starvation with millions of human victims. This requires the development of long-term forecasts for the food supply of the world's population, as well as programs for the development of the agro-industrial complex and food markets by country and region. Of particular importance in these programs should be the development and development of resource-saving technologies in all areas of activity related to the food supply of the population.
Russia has chosen the path of large-scale modernization of food production using resource-saving technologies, greening the agricultural sector, using the full potential of breeding and genetic research, as well as ensuring the sustainable development of rural areas. A sufficiently high level of provision of the agricultural sector with natural resources becomes a strategic competitive advantage for Russia in the medium term.
In the meantime, on the basis of an assessment of the agro-natural potential, it can be concluded that in general, in the third world countries, with a low level of investment, 1 ha can feed - 0.61 people, with an intermediate level - 2.1 people, with a high level - 5.05.
If the low level of investment in agriculture continues, then in the coming years, out of 117 developing countries, 64 states will already be classified as critical, i.e. their population will not be provided with food according to FAO and WHO standards.
A serious danger to humanity also lies in the impoverishment of the natural gene pool. This is due to the reduction of cultivated species and varieties used in the village. X. and preferential breeding of the most productive and resistant to any negative influence of plants and animals. But the stability of natural biocenoses is primarily in their biodiversity, therefore, in some countries, gene banks are being created, where breeding of various livestock breeds and plant species is supported.
As it turned out, one of the most dangerous impacts for the ecological balance is also related to agriculture. the introduction of new species (for example, the fauna of Australia has suffered greatly from the importation of sheep, rabbits, etc.).
It should also be noted that the active introduction into practice of the latest achievements in agricultural biotechnology - genetically modified species of plants and animals - is fraught with harm that has not yet been fully investigated and recognized by the world economic community.
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on the course "Fundamentals of Economics"
on the topic: "Agriculture - problems and development prospects"
INTRODUCTION
1. STATE OF DOMESTIC AGRICULTURE
2. WAYS TO OVERCOME THE AIC CRISIS
3. TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WORLD AGRICULTURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 21st CENTURY
CONCLUSION
BIBLIOGRAPHY
INTRODUCTION
The relevance of the work is explained by the urgent need to revive Russian agriculture after the destructive reforms of the transition period and the globalization of the problems of world agriculture.
Agriculture is one of the backbone sectors of the economy of any country. Regardless of soil and climatic conditions, even the most developed industrial countries invest very large amounts of money in the development of domestic agriculture. The land available in the country is a huge productive force given by Nature free of charge.
The crisis in agriculture and the decline in its production immediately deal a heavy blow to the entire economy, as it leads to the loss of a huge amount of free natural resources, and these losses have to be paid for by food imports.
The purpose of this work is to identify problems and try to outline the prospects for the development of Russian and world agriculture.
1. STATE OF DOMESTIC AGRICULTURE
Agriculture is an important part of the Russian economy. 13% of fixed production assets, 14% of labor resources are concentrated here, about 6% of GDP is produced.
Despite the problems associated with the planned management of the national economy, Russia on the eve of the reform was among the world's largest producers of agricultural products. Its agro-industrial complex (AIC) was relatively developed and played an important role in the country's economy.
Most of the territory of Russia lies in the zone of risky agriculture. Over large areas, yields vary greatly depending on weather conditions. Nevertheless, until the radical reform started in 1988, agriculture in the RSFSR developed at a high and stable pace. This is evidenced by objective indicators that do not depend on ideological assessments. The population of Russia in relation to the world community did not even reach 3%, but the agricultural sector of Russia produced 5.7% of the world's meat and grain, 10.3% of milk, 7.6% of eggs. At the same time, Russia was ahead of many countries not only in terms of production volume, but also in terms of the most objective indicator - production per capita. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), in not the best 1990, domestic agriculture, which had not yet entered the reform period, produced 1.7 times more grain per capita than in the EU countries, potatoes - 1 .6 times, milk - 1.2 times, eggs - 2.3 times. Only for meat production per capita was lower by 17% and for vegetables - by 2 times. In terms of growth rates of food production, the country surpassed many developed countries. For example, over three decades (1960-1990), for every 1% of population growth, there was 3% of food growth.
However, due to the weakness of the most important and essential component - the sphere of processing, storage, transportation and sale, annually producing a huge amount of products on state farms and collective farms, the country in the "field-counter" chain lost up to 30% of grain, 60% of potatoes, 10% of meat , 15% milk. Consequently, the main causes of food difficulties were mainly outside of agricultural production itself.
However, numerous studies and assessments have shown that it was in the 1970s-1980s. The agro-industrial complex of Russia has become more and more noticeably behind the advanced countries of the world.
The reforms led to a severe crisis in all agriculture - both crop production and animal husbandry.
The reforms meant a revolutionary change in the organization of agricultural production and its relations with related industries, consumers and the state. The reforms changed the social structure of Russia in terms of agriculture and the entire life order of the Russian village.
The beginning of the transition to a market economy necessitated a complete revision of the principles, methods and forms of state intervention in the agricultural sector in order to create conditions for development in this sector of the economy. entrepreneurial activity, improving the provision of food to the population and the growth of its living standards.
In 1990, the exclusive monopoly of state ownership of land, introduced in 1917, ceased to exist. However, in terms of their consequences for the agro-industrial complex of Russia, the reforms of the 1990s turned out to be much more radical and destructive than those of 1917. The main reason for this was the desire of the democratic government to solve not so much economic as political problems, not so much the construction of some new economic structures and mechanisms. how much scrapping and liquidation of the existing ones. The primary goals of the agrarian reform were the reorganization of collective farms and state farms, the development of entrepreneurship, and the creation of conditions for attracting foreign investment to the agricultural sector.
It is characteristic that the transition from exclusively state-cooperative ownership of land, which existed before 1991, to new diverse forms was carried out through strict legislative guidelines. Priority in the development of the agricultural complex was unquestioningly given to small-scale production, and large farms (collective farms and state farms), which produced most of the marketable products, practically turned out to be “outside the law”.
Land transformations were carried out in the conditions of constantly changing and contradictory legislation. The content of the reforms changed several times, a lot of very real and highly effective measures were envisaged not only in the sphere of agricultural production, but also in neighboring ones, which served or depended on the agricultural sector. However, they remained only good intentions.
A characteristic feature of the agrarian reforms in the transitional economy was that the content of program documents was transformed in practice in the opposite way.
As a result, signs of destabilization of the agrarian sector became clear, mainly related to:
· liberalization of prices, which led to the aggravation of the disparity of intersectoral economic relations and the withdrawal of huge funds from agriculture;
· privatization of processing and service enterprises and organizations instead of creating conditions for the development of cooperation and agro-industrial integration;
· focus on small private production, which did not lead to the formation of more efficient organizational structures;
· unification of the credit policy, which does not take into account the specifics of agriculture, the cyclical nature of production, and the slowdown in capital turnover;
· an accelerated transition to market relations without the minimum necessary infrastructure, which led to the displacement of the main part of rural producers from the market, the transfer of the distribution function of products to intermediaries, and the strengthening of the monopoly position in the market of processing and trading organizations.
During privatization, it was implied that subsequently mechanisms would be established for the transfer of initially distributed property into the hands of effective users. Such mechanisms were not created, therefore, a significant part of the land and fixed assets, without any use, was in the hands of farms that had practically ceased their normal functioning. Of the positive changes, it can be noted that on the basis of the reorganized collective farms and state farms, joint-stock companies, partnerships with limited liability, agricultural production cooperatives, associations of peasant (farmer) households, collective agricultural enterprises. The farming sector was formed in its infancy.
By the beginning of the 21st century, the following problems were identified:
· About 30 million hectares of land were taken out of agricultural circulation;
removal of nutrients from the soil significantly exceeded their application with fertilizers;
· fall into decay of reclamation systems;
· expansion of the area of acidified soils;
· technical degradation of the agricultural sector;
The provision of enterprises with agricultural machinery decreased by 40-60%. Equipment wear has reached 75%. The rate of its annual retirement is 3-4 times faster than the rate of renewal. If this trend continues, in a few years there will be nothing to perform mechanized work.
The debts of agricultural enterprises exceed the annual proceeds from the sale of all agricultural products. 55% of agricultural enterprises remained unprofitable. Over the years of reforms, state capital investments have decreased by 20 times.
The formation of a market agrarian structure based on the reorganization of collective farms and state farms was primarily a political task and could not help in solving economic difficulties. The growth in the number of farms and the creation of new forms of management on the basis of collective farms and state farms could not neutralize the destructive effect of price disparity, market forces, and the self-elimination of the state from performing many objectively necessary management functions.
The very idea of farming as a political and ideological counterbalance to the former socialist structure, and not as a usual attribute of a market economy and a means of replenishing the country's food fund and the income of the rural population, seems to be vicious. The idea of farming as the only acceptable and most efficient form of agricultural production for Russia was not only wrong, but also harmful.
Even at the beginning of this political economy experiment, experts warned about the lack of prospects for small-scale farming in the era of large-scale production, about the unprofitability of dispersing land and capital at a time when concentration and specialization of production are becoming the main factors for increasing the efficiency of the agro-industrial complex. The fragmentation of a large commodity producer into many small ones destroys production and its technology. Each neoplasm is economically weaker than the whole, and a small commodity production does not make it possible to grow economically in a short period of time. The practice of Russia has confirmed that without the creation of appropriate conditions and infrastructure, the idea of "fermerization" of agriculture is doomed to failure.
The lack of a scientifically based program of reforms initiated and the corresponding mechanisms for carrying out the reform posed a threat to agrarian reforms in Russia. Currently, the agro-industrial complex of Russia is experiencing a crisis due to the general socio-economic crisis in the country, subjective errors in the agro-food policy and the inevitable consequences of its implementation.
The aggravation of the agrarian crisis was most affected by the macroeconomic policy factors of the last almost two decades.
The most important of these were:
· the liquidation of the USSR and the violation of long-term interregional and intersectoral economic ties;
· increasing disparity in prices for means of production and products sold;
· liberalization of prices, and, first of all, for energy carriers;
· a significant reduction in the investment activity of the state and the loss of control over money circulation;
· fast, unprepared and ill-conceived privatization, which does not take into account the territorial and sectoral specifics of the national economy, especially in agriculture;
· the destruction of the existing system of management of the national economy without the creation of its new forms, adequate to the requirements of the development of market relations, including those that contribute to the implementation of agrarian reform.
The objective difficulties of reforming, the current macroeconomic situation and subjective mistakes in the implementation of reforms have led to a significant decline in the production and consumption of food products. The volume of agricultural production has almost halved over the past years. Imports of foodstuffs, especially meat and vegetable oil, increased sharply. In recent years, per capita food consumption has almost halved, and the total calorie content of food has decreased by a third.
The expected results of the reforms were not achieved mainly due to the fact that they were aimed mainly at the legal reorganization of enterprises, and not at the institutional transformation of the market and the organization of its infrastructure, and a market regulation system was not created.
Modern institutional transformations should be aimed at improving the forms of management, creating optimal market production structures, the most competitive in the market conditions and ensuring the maximum realization of the participants' opportunities in their economic activities.
In the transitional period, when the imperfect market mechanism not only does not yet ensure self-regulation of reproduction processes, but is not even able to stabilize the situation and prevent further collapse of the agrarian economy, it is necessary to observe the principle of combining indicativeness (recommendation) and directiveness. However, the most effective means of influencing rural entrepreneurship are methods of economic support, when instead of appeals or instructions to the private sector for the most promising groups of entrepreneurs, the state creates conditions for obtaining greater profits (mainly at the expense of budgetary funds).
The most important principles of state regulation, which are of particular importance in a crisis transitional economy, are:
· material support of agricultural producers;
agrarian protectionism;
A combination of economic and social goals.
In Russia, measures state support rural entrepreneurship should not be limited to budgetary subsidies and compensations. critical role plays the provision of start-up assistance to rural entrepreneurs, including guarantees for newly created farms, as well as support for the formation of production infrastructure, assistance in the formation and development of reformed agricultural enterprises.
If we consider the structure of the agricultural economy in terms of the proportions of various ownership models, then among the real subjects of economic relations of the capitalist type are private farms that have demonstrated not only the ability to survive, but also to thrive in harsh market conditions. Such farms-producers today provide about 45% of the total agricultural output. These include: agroholdings and equity enterprises, farms, farmsteads of villagers, as well as small businesses in rural areas in a wide variety of forms: private flour mills, bakeries, oil refineries, repair shops, etc. The presence of agroholdings in the agricultural economy indicates an invasion industrial principles of production into a system traditionally aimed at the implementation of patriarchal ways of working on the earth. We are talking about the preservation, promotion and development of a special connection between the worker and his land, about the presence of a significant personal moment in economic processes, which has always yielded convincing results of economical, careful and profitable farming.
Meanwhile, a significant place in the agricultural economy is occupied by agroholdings, which are powerful vertically integrated structures that include both production and processing, and sales of products. Naturally, all this requires a lot of money. They come to the countryside as investors interested in closing the cycle by linking the processing and sale of agricultural products with their production. And this activity of agricultural holdings is decisive in their evaluation. The development of any type of rural household needs careful patronage from the state. It is necessary to restore not only the agricultural system of the household type, but also the psychology of the landowner, lost during the years of Soviet power, which, of course, requires considerable time and effort.
Yet, despite all the difficulties of the transition period, large agricultural producers continue to exist. It is an undeniable fact that at the end of the twentieth century. about 90% of them were unprofitable, however, even during this period, examples of well-being and even prosperity are known, although quite rare. Nevertheless, one can state a significant improvement in the position of large producers in institutional terms. According to many indicators of economic activity, representatives of this type of farms have already ceased to be monopolists. In addition, large farms are no longer the basis of social life in rural areas. And, finally, from landowners they turned into land users.
2 . WAYS TO OVERCOME THE AIC CRISIS
The development of agriculture is one of the few sectoral expert areas in the activities of the Center for Special Development (CSR). Its inclusion in the list of developments of the Center is due to a number of reasons that distinguish agriculture from the entire list of industries. First of all, this is a sector that provides the population of the country with the most important essential goods - food. Secondly, Russia, due to its vast areas suitable for agriculture, objectively has every opportunity to develop a competitive agri-food sector on world markets. Thirdly, the problem of poverty is closely related to agriculture - in the countryside, the share of the poor population significantly exceeds the figures for cities.
Based on this understanding, the CSR was organized working group on the development and consolidation in the legislation of new principles of state policy in the countryside. The first law was devoted to formulating the tasks, principles and instruments of the state agri-food policy, the second contained specific programs to support the agri-food sector. This division is generally consistent with world practice.
In recent years, the current government of the Russian Federation has tried to take into account and rethink the mistakes made in the first years of the transition period. Now agriculture in our country is developing within the framework of the National Project "Development of the Agro-Industrial Complex".
The priority areas for the development of this project are:
· accelerated development of animal husbandry;
· stimulating the development of small forms of management;
· provision of affordable housing for young families and young professionals in the countryside.
The main goal of the project is the accelerated development of animal husbandry and an increase in the production of meat and milk to gradually replace imported meat and dairy products. Within the framework of the whole of Russia, the task was set to increase milk production by 4.5% by 2008, meat - by 7%.
The implementation of the first direction of the National Project will increase the profitability of animal husbandry, carry out technical re-equipment of existing livestock complexes (farms) and put new capacities into operation.
This will be possible through:
· increasing the availability of long-term loans attracted for up to 8 years;
· growth of deliveries through the system of federal leasing of pedigree cattle, machinery and equipment for animal husbandry;
· improvement of measures of customs and tariff regulation;
The second direction of the National Project is aimed at increasing the volume of sales of products produced by peasant (farmer) households and citizens who maintain personal subsidiary plots.
This is supposed to be achieved by:
· cheaper credit resources attracted by small forms of management of the agro-industrial complex;
development of infrastructure for servicing small forms of business in the agro-industrial complex - a network of agricultural consumer cooperatives(procurement, supply and marketing, processing, credit).
The implementation of the third direction will provide affordable housing for young professionals (or their families) in the countryside, will create conditions for the formation of an effective human resources potential of the agro-industrial complex.
Russia's entry into the World Trade Organization(WTO).
To date, negotiations on Russia's accession to the WTO have been completed with all participating countries, except for Vietnam, Georgia and Cambodia. Support for Russian agriculture was one of the most important topics of these negotiations. Agreements have already been reached on access to the Russian agricultural market. For all goods produced in Russia (all types of meat, milk, oils, sugar) customs tariffs will remain unchanged after joining the WTO. For those goods that are not produced in our country, the Russian side made concessions on tariffs. In the signed documents, the basic indicator of state support for agriculture is taken for 1993-1995 and amounts to approximately 9 billion US dollars, and there will be no increase in import quotas in the next 2 years. In general, speaking about the consequences of joining the WTO for the economy and for agriculture in Russia in particular, according to economists' calculations, this step is not expected to have a negative impact on the agricultural sector.
At the moment, there is a lack of regulation of the agricultural sector of the market. Wholesale prices for agricultural products are declining, while retail prices are increasing, including due to an increase in imports of these goods from abroad.
In our opinion, when joining the WTO, the federal authorities should reduce import quotas for these goods, eliminate the irregularity of deliveries over time, and stop illegal food supply channels to Russia.
Only with state support for Russian agriculture, it will be able to produce competitive products in the WTO.
When formulating an agricultural development strategy, it would be useful to take into account the experience of leading developed countries.
For example, in the United States, the state provides subsidies from the federal budget in the event that market prices for agricultural products fall below the guaranteed price level. A special government organization at guaranteed prices accepts agricultural products as collateral from producers, and if market prices exceed the collateral, the producer buys back his product and sells it on the market. If the prices are below the deposit rates, then the goods remain the property of the government organization. Thus, the USA, being largest exporter agricultural products, by supporting domestic producers, takes effective measures to maintain such a gap in world prices, as a result of which the domestic producer does not remain a loser, and the level of world prices remains under control. agriculture crisis commodity producer
The pricing mechanism in the EU, developed for each type of agricultural product and for each region, is effective. Several categories of prices are established - indicative prices determined by the Communities as desirable, minimum import prices or threshold, minimum sales prices guaranteed to the manufacturer by interventions, official organizations. The existence of a threshold price protects the market from imports, the intervention price guarantees a minimum income for producers. Thus, protectionism at the EU's borders protects producers from the sharp shocks of the world market. The well-thought-out agro-policy of the EU made it possible to go from an importer of agricultural products to a position close to self-sufficiency and the second world exporter within 10-15 years.
3. TRENDS IN WORLD AGRICULTUREFARMS IN THE BEGINNING OF THE XXI CENTURY
According to economists, by 2010 in developed countries a relatively low growth in food consumption is expected: 2-2.5%. In developing countries, however, a sharp increase in consumption is expected. First of all, this concerns the countries of the Asian region and some countries of Latin America. It is also expected to increase consumption of products in countries former USSR, Central and of Eastern Europe.
Many forecasts of the development of agriculture in the 21st century have been published in the scientific press. All futurologists and practitioners agree that revolutionary changes are coming. As agricultural technology advances, food needs will change, there will be more of it, and it will cost less. In the late 1960s, Americans spent about a third of their income on food. Now they only spend 10% on it. People can afford much more. So, Americans satisfy about half of their food needs outside the home - in cafes, restaurants, in the system of enterprises. fast food. Rising incomes will lead to the fact that consumers will want not only tasty, but also healthy food. The new type of food will simultaneously contain vaccines against diseases, and have a number of other positive qualities. The growth of the world's population should contribute to the development of agriculture, since it will be necessary to satisfy not only the basic needs, but also the tastes of people of different nationalities and ages. Rural producers need to constantly improve their products, offer new types of healthier food. Only in this case they will have a cloudless future.
Agriculture will be forced to adapt to the market conditions of an increasingly globalized world economy, as tight financial policies do not support the necessary market measures. V farms the trend towards economic growth will continue. First of all, it is necessary to reduce production costs by effective use agricultural machinery. The production and sale of specific regional products, as well as environmentally friendly products, is becoming one of the significant sources of income. In the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, there are exceptionally favorable conditions for the effective competitive production of wheat, rapeseed or pork, a dynamic development of production is ensured, achievements in the development of biology and technology are used, integration production activities and public evaluation of peasant labor. Over the past 25 years, labor costs for food production have decreased by three quarters, with a trend towards a 50% reduction is projected by 2010. Despite population growth, the level of food prices on world markets will mainly remain demand in developing countries. Losses can be partially covered by the results of technical development and lower prices for material and technical means. Security disputes environment become more and more objective. Cooperation and diversified production will help reduce the pressure to cut costs. The efficiency of large farms will remain at a high level. The concentration of capital in the agricultural sector will continue. The role of agricultural production will become much more versatile. Technological development will lead to the fact that the role of information and communication technology in the organization of production and access to markets will grow. The economic opportunities for the use of biology and genetic technology will increase. The latter is spreading in animal husbandry more slowly than in crop production. It is not a problem to increase production or preserve the harvested crop. It is important to improve the quality of products, the favorable formation of the structure of proteins, the improvement of the quality of sugars and vegetable oils. Solving these problems requires significant fundamental scientific research, which will make it possible to create new varieties of agricultural crops and animal breeds that ensure the qualitative and quantitative growth of production. The food needs of a growing population will have to be met in a smaller area, with less water, and in a deteriorating environment.
In many countries food production is subsidized. Financial support per 1 hectare of agricultural land in the EU is 500 dollars, in the USA - about 100 dollars, in Russia - only 2 dollars, although in the 80s, state subsidies per 1 hectare we had more than in the USA (about 150-200 dollars). Given the current economic situation in Russia, it is simply unrealistic to count on subsidies of more than $20/ha in the near future. Today they can be no more than 10% of the cost of agricultural products, and this is, in practice, a requirement for self-sufficiency. These are the real conditions. Therefore, in order to ensure the self-sufficiency of agriculture and at the same time maintain the conditions for reproduction, it is necessary to increase at least 2 times the efficiency of grain production. This should be done both by reducing material and financial costs, and by increasing productivity.
According to FAO, the reality is that food production in the coming years can be secured through massive investment in the system of control over the distribution of water. The reason is that 70% of fresh water goes to agriculture. We have already spoken about the limited water resources. In addition, there is a struggle for them from other sectors of the economy. Therefore, agriculture is in a difficult position - more food needs to be produced and best quality using less water and without compromising the environment. Stable the economic growth in most developing countries can only be provided by powerful agriculture. For the growth of agricultural production, it is necessary to make significant private and state investments in infrastructure, technology, and the system of water use for peasants. According to FAO specialists, the driving force behind the growth of agricultural production is the improvement of the water use system.
One of the global problems of modern agriculture is the redistribution of agricultural products - food. The main problem of mankind is the distribution of food. Despite an unprecedented increase in the level of prosperity in the world, famine is emerging in one region after another. Several countries in Asia, and especially in Africa, are facing a particularly catastrophic food situation due to civil strife and large numbers of refugees and displaced persons. If the highly developed countries, experiencing a surplus of food, want to maintain their standard of living, they must help the developing countries. Because the half-starved population will not be stopped by either the Mediterranean Sea or the Atlantic Ocean. The hungry will rush to where there is food and prosperity.
The most important prerequisite for a proper response of the world community to hunger is the development of an appropriate understanding of the economics of the food problem. In Africa, for example, there is plenty of scope for expanding food production, but this requires appropriate economic policies (including research work in the agricultural sector, institutional reforms and changes in relative prices). Modern agriculture also has high hopes for biotechnology, the "gene revolution".
CONCLUSION
Agriculture is the most important element of the world economy, providing the population of the earth food products. Russian agriculture after being in the stage of stagnation in the 70-80s. The twentieth century, when the outlines of the coming crisis were already revealed, was subjected to the devastating impact of the reforms of the 1990s.
Transformations were carried out in the conditions of constantly changing and contradictory legislation and spontaneous price liberalization. The focus was not on the creation of something new, but on the destruction of the old. This led to the emergence of numerous problems by the beginning of the 21st century: the withdrawal of huge areas from agricultural circulation, land degradation, agricultural machinery, and the processing sector (which did not work very well under socialism).
To overcome the crisis, the government has developed a number of measures in recent years, within the framework of the national project "Development of the Agro-Industrial Complex". The leading directions of this project are the accelerated development of animal husbandry, stimulating the development of small forms of farming, providing affordable housing for young families and young professionals in the countryside.
As capitalist tendencies were introduced into the Russian economy, private forms of agricultural production began to play an increasingly important role (up to 45%). Government support is also needed in this direction.
With regard to Russia, it is obvious that success is possible only if the measures of state regulation and agrarian policy take into account the value orientations of the rural population that have developed over many decades, the behavioral patterns of its various groups, socio-psychological and national characteristics.
In recent years, a number of problems have emerged in the globalizing system of the world economy. This is the problem of uneven redistribution of the products of the agricultural sector, indicating problems with water resources, which are of paramount importance in agriculture. On the whole, in developed countries (USA, EU), agriculture is developing quite successfully, making these countries the leading exporters of agricultural products, and new technologies are being introduced in the field of biochemistry and genetics.
There are hopes that Russia, as a result of a more thoughtful conduct of economic policy and probable accession to the WTO, will be able to take its rightful place in the system of world agriculture.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Dobrynin V.P. On the concept of development of agriculture in Russia. - M.: MSH, 2006.
2. Kara-Murza S.G. Economic reforms in Russia 1999-2001 - M.: Algorithm 2002.
3. The course of the transition economy // Ed. L.I. Abalkin. - M.: Finstatinform, 2007.
4. Course economic theory: Textbook // Ed. A.V. Sidorovich. - M.: DIS, 2001
5. Pletnev P.A. New problems of world agriculture. // "Krestyanskie Vedomosti", 2007, No. 10
6. Sergeev D.V. Institutional features of agriculture in post-perestroika Russia - M.: 2003.
7. Serova E.V. agricultural economy. - M.: GU HSE, 1999.
8. Theory of transitional economy: Textbook // Ed. I.P. Nikolaeva. - M.: Prospect, 2001.
9. Economy in transition // Ed. V.V. Radaeva, A.V. Buzgalin. - M.: Publishing House of Moscow State University, 2005.
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The development of agricultural (and food) production in Russia is taking place against the backdrop of a favorable global situation and improving economic conditions in the agricultural sector through the implementation of the priority national project “Development of the Agro-Industrial Complex”.
The measures taken in recent years aimed at improving the socio-economic situation in the agrarian sector have made it possible to form a trend in the growth of production and increase the efficiency of agricultural production. The average annual growth rate for the five years from 2003 to 2007 was 102.7 percent.
Significant changes have taken place in macroeconomic policy. Credit resources have become more accessible to agricultural producers, and investment activity in agriculture has increased. The average annual investment growth rate over the five-year period was 122.5 percent.
The factors limiting development were the low level of energy and capital-labor ratio, chemicalization, insufficient level of agrotechnical culture, shortage of qualified specialists, underdeveloped infrastructure of the domestic market (silos, slaughterhouses, etc.).
Among the factors potentially contributing to successful development sectors in the near term, it should be noted:
The expansion of demand, including technological demand, for fodder crops significantly increases the commercial prospects of domestic agriculture, since low-quality crops are much more suitable for growing in risky farming zones, which make up the bulk of the land fund reserve;
Rising prices on world markets increases the competitiveness of domestic agricultural products and provides financial opportunities for mass technological modernization of the agro-industrial complex;
No restrictions on crop areas - significant crop areas in the eastern part of the country have not yet been developed, which provides additional resources in the event of an increase in food demand.
The search for new technologies for the production of biofuels (both first and next generations) gives research in the field of energy and agrotechnologies in Russia an additional commercial impetus;
The food industry over the past five years has also demonstrated stable growth dynamics, supported by growing consumer demand, investment attractiveness of the sector, expansion of export opportunities and development of the raw material base. The average annual growth rate of food production for 2003-2007 was 105.4 percent. As in agriculture, individual segments of the industry showed different dynamics. Acceleration of growth rates, especially in 2005-2006, was observed in the development of sugar beet sector, oil and fat, meat segment of food.
The most characteristic trends in development food industry primarily related to the consolidation of assets, the formation of large companies (for example, the oil and fat sector), as well as the ongoing formation of vertically integrated ties and shocks in the global agri-food markets.
In the structure of Russian food exports, the share of exports of oilseeds decreased with the expansion of export deliveries sunflower oil. Export volumes of flour confectionery, chocolate and products containing cocoa increased.
Despite the fact that the growth of agri-food exports outpaced the growth of imports, Russia still retains its traditional position as a net importer of food products. Meat supplies still remain the main item of all agri-food imports.
The limited capacity of domestic producers is not yet able to fully satisfy the growing domestic demand due to the growth of household incomes, which may lead to relatively high growth rates of food imports.
In this regard, the main objectives of the state policy in the long term are:
providing the needs of the population with agricultural products and food at the expense of domestic production;
increasing the competitiveness of the domestic agricultural complex, effective import substitution in the livestock market and the creation of a developed export potential (especially in crop production);
improving and increasing the productivity of land and other natural resources used in agricultural production.
In 2020, compared to 2007, the level of food production will increase by 1.9 times.
The gross harvest of grain crops in 2020 may reach at least 120-125 million tons as a result of an increase in yield from 19.8 c/ha in 2007 to at least 26-28 c/ha in 2020 and expansion of their sown areas . At the same time, the potential level of grain production based on the use of intensive technologies and a high agrotechnical culture will allow Russia to become one of the leading exporters in the world grain market.
By 2020, Russia may reach the level of per capita consumption of meat and milk corresponding to the recommended rational norm. Meat production will increase by 1.7 times, milk - by 27%. The share of imports in meat resources will decrease from 34% in 2007 to 12% in 2020, the share of milk imports in resources - from 17% to 12%, respectively. Meat consumption will be almost completely satisfied by domestic production.
Limitations on the development of food production are associated with:
the imperfection of the mechanism of state and, above all, customs and tariff regulation of the food market;
underdeveloped production infrastructure, especially in the meat and dairy sector;
dependence on import supplies of raw materials and fluctuations in world prices;
insufficient development of the raw material base and the persistence of the problem of supplying high-quality raw materials for processing;
incomplete work on the development of technical regulations.
In particular, the main restrictions on the development of the fishery complex are: technological backwardness of production, a high degree of depreciation of fixed assets, low investment attractiveness of the fishing industry, imperfection of legislation on aquatic biological resources, and a high level of poaching.
TO competitive advantage the food industry includes:
rapid and sustainable growth of markets and their large scale, as significant factors in the investment attractiveness of the industry;
renewal of the average for the industry over half of the production capacity;
dynamic development of auxiliary and service industries (tare and packaging, logistics and marketing services).
Depending on the completeness and consistency of the implementation of agricultural policy measures, the level of state support for agricultural producers, the pace of technological renewal of agricultural production and the level of logistics for the development of agriculture, domestic and external demand for agricultural products, it seems possible to predict two development options.
Table 47 - Factors determining the development of agriculture
|
activities |
growth factors (inertial version) |
Additional growth factors (innovative version) |
|
Agriculture |
Improving the efficiency of using the potential available in agricultural production. Continued state support for agricultural producers at the current level. Growing demand for agricultural products of processing enterprises and the consumer market. Continued institutional and land reforms. Attracting qualified personnel to the village. |
Development and improvement of markets for agricultural products and material and technical resources. Accelerating the pace of mastering new technologies that meet world standards, completing the renewal of the fleet of agricultural machinery and equipment in crop production and animal husbandry. Increasing the volume of investments in fixed assets. Completeness and consistency in the implementation of agricultural policy measures, increasing the level of state support for agricultural producers. Favorable global environment. |
The inertial variant of the development of agriculture is characterized by a slow transition from extensive forms of agricultural production to intensive technologies.
By 2020, the growth of manufactured products is projected at the level of 120-125% compared to 2007. The specified indicator of production growth will be achieved in conditions of insufficiently high growth rates of investment opportunities in agriculture and, accordingly, insufficient growth in the material and technical equipment of agricultural production and the development of progressive resource-saving technologies and solving social problems in the countryside.
The innovative option provides for the full implementation of the measures determined by the State Program for the Development of Agriculture and the Regulation of Agricultural Products, Raw Materials and Food Markets for 2008-2012.
It is envisaged to stimulate investments in agriculture by increasing the availability of loans, development institutions that will allow the implementation of large projects on the principles of project financing, the active involvement of financial institutions (Rosagroleasing, Rosselkhozbank, etc.), lending secured by purchased machinery and equipment, breeding products, facilities construction in progress and other mechanisms that facilitate the attraction of investments. For the period from 2008 to 2012, the volume of credit resources allocated for technical and technological modernization, may exceed 250 billion rubles.
Investments in fixed capital from all sources of financing by 2020 will increase by 5 times compared to 2007. In the structure of investments by agricultural sectors for large and medium-sized organizations in 2020, crop production will account for about 30%, livestock - 50%. By 2020, the volume of investments from own funds may increase to 925 billion rubles against 85.3 billion rubles in 2007. Funds raised in 2020 may exceed 1,900 billion rubles against 148.2 billion rubles in 2007. The purchase of machinery and equipment will account for about 46% of the total investment, the construction of buildings (except residential) and structures - 30-35%. The share of investments for the purchase of breeding stock will increase from 11% in 2007 to 17-20% in 2020.
The implementation of measures to intensify crop and livestock production, reduce material and labor costs will significantly improve economic indicators agricultural development.
Table 48 - Development factors Food Industry
|
activities |
Production Growth Factors (inertial version) |
Additional growth factors (innovative version) |
|
Production food products, including drinks, and tobacco |
Attraction of investment funds Growing demand for food Raw material base development Implementation of measures of customs and tariff regulation |
Large-scale application of innovative technologies Accelerating the development and application of technical regulations for the food industry Expansion of the range of products Emergence or further development of new markets for the food industry Intensive dynamics of agricultural production Improving the quality characteristics of raw materials Favorable global environment |
The inertial option for the development of the food market is characterized by an increase in consumer demand for food products, a low level of competitiveness of domestic products, an average level of investment activity, and a relatively high degree of dependence of the Russian food market on imports.
The volume of food production in 2020 will increase by 1.6 times compared to 2007.
By 2020, over 900 billion rubles of investment funds will be attracted to the industry (1.9 times higher than in 2007), of which over 500 billion rubles will be directed to technological modernization.
The innovative development scenario focuses on sustainable consumer demand for food, the formation of a new consumption culture, and a large-scale investment attraction aimed at technological modernization of production.
According to estimates, the dynamics of food imports is constrained by the rather strong competitive positions of Russian producers, supported by an active investment policy, which will lead to a greater orientation of domestic demand towards domestic goods and a slowdown in import growth (import substitution).
The level of food production in 2020 in relation to 2007 will increase by 1.9 times.
By 2020, about 1,150 billion rubles of investment funds will be attracted to the industry (2.9 times the level of 2007), of which more than 640 billion rubles will be directed to technological modernization. The level of utilization of production capacities will reach 85% against 70% in 2007.
The growth of meat production will be influenced by the improvement of the raw material base and the use of modern technologies. The saturation of the domestic market with domestic raw materials (pork and poultry) will affect the reduction in the share of pork imports in resources in 2020 to 7-10% against 24.9% in 2007, poultry - 14% and 39.5 percent, respectively. As a result of rapid modernization and capacity building in efficient poultry companies, Russia will be able to claim the role of a significant exporter of poultry meat.
Growth in domestic and foreign demand, the projected increase in prices for dairy products will have a stimulating effect on the dairy sector. Export of dairy products will increase by 2 times. Promising prospects for dairy producers are opening up in terms of their export to the markets of Southeast Asian countries, which are experiencing a limitation in their own resources for milk production.
By 2020, Russia may reach the level of per capita consumption of meat and milk corresponding to the recommended rational norm.
High prices for sunflower seeds in 2007, caused by a low harvest in 2007 against the backdrop of growing capacities of Russian oil extraction plants, stimulated producers to significantly expand the area under this crop in 2008. The growth trend in sunflower production and, as a result, sunflower oil will continue in 2009-2020.
A trend is being formed to increase the production of rapeseed oil against the backdrop of the development of the market for alternative energy sources. Further prospects for the development of the domestic market of rapeseed and rapeseed oil will directly depend on the ongoing policy of the EU countries regarding the increase or decrease in the volume of biofuel production and a possible change in the export duty on rapeseed seeds.
Given the high demand for vegetable oils, the total output of vegetable oils in 2020 will increase by 29 percent compared to 2007.
In the sugar sector, it is planned to further reduce the volume of raw sugar processing (in 2020 by 2007 - about 64%) and, accordingly, a significant increase in the production of domestic beet sugar (about 129%). The share of sugar imports in resources will decrease from 39% in 2007 to 20% in 2020.
The forecast growth in flour production is characterized by moderate market development and is driven by demand from bakeries, confectionery, catering and retail businesses. The expansion of external demand may become a factor that ensures the growth of the flour-grinding industry. A new trend is already being formed - the export of flour to Central Asia.
Table 49 - Production of basic foodstuffs
|
Name |
2020 to 2007, % |
2020 to 2010, % |
|||||
|
Production of food products, including drinks, and tobacco, % |
|||||||
|
Meat, including by-products of the 1st category, thousand tons |
|||||||
|
Animal butter, thousand tons |
|||||||
|
Fatty cheeses (including cheese), thousand tons |
|||||||
|
Sugar - total, thousand tons |
|||||||
|
from it granulated sugar from sugar. beets, thousand tons |
|||||||
|
Vegetable oils, thousand tons |
|||||||
|
Flour, million tons |
|||||||
|
Groats, thousand tons |
|||||||
Table 50 - Indicators of the development of the agro-industrial complex
|
Name |
2007 report |
by 2007 in % |
|||
|
Oud. weight of imports in product resources, %: |
|||||
|
Meat and meat products |
|||||
|
Milk and dairy products |
|||||
|
Sugar |
|||||
|
Export of grain, million tons |
|||||
|
Consumption per capita, kg: |
|||||
|
Meat and meat products |
|||||
|
Milk and dairy products |
|||||
The main challenges and risks for the favorable development of the sector are related to the following factors:
Substantial rise in domestic food prices. Restoring parity in prices for tradable food and, through them, for non-tradable food is a natural process that in the long run will end in parity of domestic and foreign food prices. The risk here is overgrowth when biofuel production or other competing uses of agricultural land become more profitable in the short term than food production;
The rise in prices on world markets increases the price competitiveness of domestic agricultural products, that is, together with financial opportunities, it significantly reduces the incentives for the technological modernization of the agro-industrial complex.
An excessively extensive method of expanding agricultural production in the context of a state policy not aimed at intensifying production draws the labor force and significantly slows down the growth of labor productivity, and hence the income of the population.
The need for mass technological and, as a result, structural (reduction of excess employment) modernization of agriculture. If this risk materializes, Russian agriculture will not be able to increase output when there is global demand for its products, and may remain uncompetitive in the long term.
In the medium term, the development of the agro-industrial complex will be determined by the following factors:
preservation and maintenance of soil fertility;
creation of economic conditions for agricultural producers to invest in the modernization and technical re-equipment of production;
state support for agriculture, improvement of forms of state support;
increasing the financial stability of agriculture and the solvency of agricultural producers;
improving the organization of production and labor, increasing the level of employment, motivation and remuneration;
creation of a system of state information support in the field of agriculture;
settlement of land relations;
improvement of market regulation mechanisms for agricultural products, raw materials and foodstuffs.
In the long term, the development of the agro-industrial complex will be determined by:
improvement of the zonal farming system and an increase in the volume of mineral fertilizers (110-117 kg/ha);
significant (up to 35-40 percent of the sown area) expansion of sown areas of high-yield crops;
improving the breed composition of livestock, expanding the network of breeding farms;
implementation of measures to stimulate the accelerated recovery of the number of cattle;
improving the structure of concentrated feed used in animal husbandry by increasing the proportion of feed balanced in all components and increasing the return on feed on this basis;
increasing the scale of mastering modern automated technologies for keeping livestock and poultry, which will ensure the growth of their productivity to a level close to the indicators of the world's leading producers of livestock products, increase its competitiveness and carry out import substitution in the predicted volume;
active implementation of social programs in the countryside.
Further development of food markets is seen in the context of the growth of effective demand of the population, global market trends and the possible strengthening of positions in the foreign market, mainly due to the CIS countries. There is a possibility of value added growth not due to the growth of physical volumes, but due to shifts in the structure of production towards more expensive goods.
Significant opportunities for the growth of the food industry, supported by the accelerated development of agricultural production, will allow Russia to occupy its own niche in the world market for such types of products as sunflower oil, powdered milk, animal butter, and poultry meat.
Realization of the unique natural and economic potential of the country, the intensification of agricultural production will allow Russia to become one of the world market leaders in such types of products as grain, flax fiber and products of "ecological agriculture".
At the same time, in the long term, it is possible to strengthen the role of large and medium-sized agricultural organizations, which have greater opportunities for concentrating production and using resource-saving technologies than in private household plots.
Our country is huge. The climate is different in its territory. Diverse flora and fauna, geographic conditions and soils. And everywhere people turn to their advantage the natural features of their region, learn to manage better, treat the land and its wealth with care, lay settlements and cities, build roads and power lines, block rivers with dams ...
But, like hundreds of years ago, the concern for bread, the concern for the harvest, has not gone into the background. True, it has acquired a new sound today. Miners and metallurgists, chemists and technologists, designers and meteorologists came to the aid of farmers who created powerful modern agro-industrial complexes.
The country is now in a position to invest new funds in agricultural production, and it expects a greater return from the rural workers. Grandiose prospects for the development of agriculture have been outlined, not just for the coming years, but for a more distant future. Without such a real assessment of the future, further progress of the entire national economy of the country is unthinkable. But, in turn, the implementation of these plans is impossible without comprehensive scientific work in various fields that in one way or another are in contact with agricultural production.
The fact that, as before, the issues of grain production remain in the center of attention is quite natural. The cultivation of grain crops - wheat, corn, rice, barley, rye, oats - many cereals and leguminous crops is carried out on vast areas, the attention of a multi-million army of rural workers is riveted to the cultivation of bread, and the solution of many other problems of the national economy is associated with its production.
Gone are the days when these issues could be resolved within the framework of purely agrarian sciences, as some of the agricultural biologists have been saying about this not so long ago. Now, when the level of productivity has increased dramatically, simple agricultural practices are no longer able to provide the amount of grain we need. There is only one way out of this situation: an in-depth study of the vital activity of organisms, the elucidation of the patterns that determine the complex of economically valuable plant traits.
Today it is not enough to give farmers good varieties. We still need to learn how to realize this potential in practice. And for this it is necessary to study the physiology and biochemistry of developing plants just as comprehensively, to find out how to create the best conditions for their growth, the formation of a crop, how to “feed” crops, how to cultivate crops. It follows from this that agricultural science must rise to a qualitatively new level - to become complex. The activities of specialists in some disciplines must be consistent with the capabilities and plans of others. This entails an increase in the role of planning future scientific developments, the role of coordinating the efforts of scientists from different branches of science.
There is another factor that determines the growing role of fundamental science in the development of agriculture. Today, we can no longer be satisfied with a simple increase in productivity. Since now the problems of the quality of agricultural products are coming to the fore. It is necessary that a unit of production, and above all grain, contain the required amount of certain types of molecules - proteins, fats, carbohydrates ... So that proteins carry the optimal amount of amino acids, so that fats contain the oils we need.
Thus, the problems of crop production and grain production can only be solved today taking into account new requirements. In our society, the task of feeding people has long been outdated. Another problem has become on the agenda - to provide complete food and feed products that best meet the biological needs of humans and animals. It is also necessary to know for sure how to process the harvested agricultural products so as not to lose the right substances.
A huge role is given to the introduction of the achievements of molecular biology in agriculture. Without them, it is already unthinkable to achieve a solution to the urgent tasks set for the agrarian sector of our economy. Molecular biology is already doing a great deal to increase the production of grain and, in particular, to develop methods for improving its quality. Theoretical research in this area, which led to outstanding discoveries, changed the face of all modern biology. New knowledge is already being applied in practice, because only on this path of a comprehensive study of the most subtle patterns of metabolism in cells can one hope to find real approaches to further increasing agricultural productivity and obtaining high-quality products. All this has changed the usual ideas about many sciences, and above all about plant breeding, which is experiencing a rebirth today.
But not only due to the success of selection does a person receive plant food and bread. Botanists are looking for plants in nature that could expand the range of species cultivated by man, Biochemists are developing better ways to extract nutrients useful for nutrition. Microbiologists are creating a cheap "microbial" protein. Those who are trying to get plant foods that are not inferior, and sometimes superior in their nutritional value, usefulness, and taste to traditional types of food products, follow different paths. By introducing new technological operations, scientists eliminate the loss of protein during the processing of grain into cereals and flour. With the help of enzymatic transformations, protein concentrates are obtained. This constant struggle for sources of food for people and feed for livestock is permeated with the search for keys to unlocking the secrets of the genetic code, the molecular structure of various cellular structures and formations. Thus, scientists' reflections on the issue of reserves for obtaining food merge with the efforts of those who seek to grow large crops, give varieties new properties, and improve the quality of grain.
Our idea of bread is multifaceted. This is not only grain in the bins, not only a baked bun, or fragrant porridge, or feed concentrate in animal feeders. It is both the most important product used in the food industry and a raw material for many other industries. Each of these types of raw materials needs its own, special grain - high-protein or, on the contrary, enriched with starch or oils. Therefore, the studies of scientists working on these problems are so different, differentiated.
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