Organization of entrepreneurial activity. Entrepreneurial risk: concepts, essence and types of classifications Risks are distinguished by types of entrepreneurial activity
The purpose of the lecture: To study the nature, types of entrepreneurial risk, the reasons for its fohnikonovanie and ways to minimize
Lecture plan:
3.1 Concept and functions of risk
3.2 Classification of business risks
3.3 Risk losses and their causes in business
3.4 Ways to reduce and insure risk in business
Concept and functions of risk
People have always encountered risk in various spheres of activity. However, the fundamental nature of the works revealing the essence and content of the economic categories "economic risk", "entrepreneurial risk" is not yet available.
In the very general view in the "Dictionary of the Russian language" by V. Dahl, risk is defined on the one hand, as a possible danger of something; on the other hand, as an action on good luck, which requires courage, decisiveness, enterprise in the hope of a happy outcome.
In the "Modern Economic Dictionary" by B.A. Raizberg et al. It is noted that risk is the danger of unforeseen losses of expected profit, income or property, money in connection with an accidental change in conditions economic activity, unfavorable circumstances.
In modern economic dictionaries, a lot of attention is paid to risk. So, in the "Explanatory Dictionary of Economics and Finance" by I. Bernard and J.C. Colley, the following definition of risk is given: "An element of uncertainty that can affect the activities of an economic entity or the behavior of any economic operation."
This dictionary says that entrepreneurial activity contains a risk that the entrepreneur must take. It determines the nature and extent of the risk.
Business activities Is an innovative risky activity. Applying new technologies, new technique, new methods of labor organization, production, innovative marketing, management, etc., the entrepreneur, of course, runs the risk of incurring losses, losing part or all of his resources. But he is counting not on losses, but above all on receiving entrepreneurial income. And, as practice shows, in many cases it gets it.
This is why innovative, entrepreneurial firms have more high profitability and a higher level of competitiveness in comparison with those that carry out the reproduction process using traditional technologies and techniques, methods of organization and production management.
Thus, a sample survey of 50 financial firms carried out in the USA showed that the average rate of return on "risk capital" is 3 times higher than the usual capital investment of a share. 70% of these firms had a profitability of over 20%, the rest over 30%.
In the economic literature, the terms both "economic risk" and "entrepreneurial risk" are used. Moreover, most often these concepts are understood as identical. Indeed, these concepts are very close, especially if we consider the economic risk in business. At the same time, they cannot be considered identical.
Business risk is a broader concept than business risk, although the latter is the main component of business risk.
Risk Is a possible danger.
In economic theory, risk is usually understood as the probability (threat) of losing a part of the income by an enterprise as a result of certain production and financial activities.
Thus, entrepreneurial risk is understood as the danger of a potentially possible, probable loss of resources arising from any types of activity related to the production of products, goods, services, their sale, commodity-money and financial transactions, and commerce.
In the types of activity under consideration, one has to deal with the use and circulation of material, labor, financial, informational (intellectual) resources, so that the risk is associated with the threat of losing these resources, in full or in part.
When defining the concept of "risk", such common words as "losses", "losses", "damage" are used.
Applying these words to economics, it is necessary to understand what is meant by them. Losses are what we had and what has gone away from us. But in the economy there are the words "costs", "costs", "costs", which also mean what was and what went away.
For example, a tailor sews a suit and uses fabric for it. These costs are not losses, they are foreseen in advance. But if the same tailor accidentally cut the fabric, made the wrong suit, it turns out that in addition to the three meters of fabric required for sewing a suit, he took 3.5 meters. So, 3 meters is a consumption, and 0.5 meters is a loss.
Another example, an entrepreneur decided to print books and sell them at a price of 500 tenge per item. But unfavorable conditions developed on the sales market, the demand for the book turned out to be lower than expected and they had to sell them at a price of 400 tenge per item. As a result, the entrepreneur loses 100 tenge of income on each book.
Entrepreneurial risk is characterized as the danger of an unforeseen, uncalculated consumption of resources or a shortfall in income in comparison with the option designed for the rational use of resources. In other words, the risk is the threat that the entrepreneur incurs losses in the form of additional costs in excess of those provided for by the forecast, project, plan, program of his actions, or will receive incomes lower than those he expected.
So, when establishing entrepreneurial risk, it is necessary to distinguish between the concepts of "expense" and "losses", "losses". Any entrepreneurial activity is inevitably associated with costs, while losses occur at an unfavorable coincidence of circumstances, miscalculations, and represent additional costs in excess of those planned. Any expenses that do not bring an effect, an expedient result should also be included in the losses.
Further consideration of the essence of entrepreneurial risk is associated with clarifying the functions that risk performs in entrepreneurial activity.
In the economic literature, the following risk functions are distinguished:
· Innovative;
· Regulatory;
· Protective;
· Analytical.
Entrepreneurial risk performs an innovative function by stimulating the search for unconventional solutions to the problems facing an entrepreneur. Most foreign firms, companies achieve success, become competitive on the basis of innovative economic activities associated with risk. Risky decisions, a risky type of management lead to more efficient production, from which both entrepreneurs and consumers and society as a whole benefit.
The regulatory function has a contradictory character and appears in two forms: constructive and destructive. Entrepreneurial risk is usually focused on obtaining meaningful results in unconventional ways. Thus, it allows one to overcome conservatism, dogmatism, inertia, psychological barriers that impede promising innovations. This is a constructive form of the regulatory function of entrepreneurial risk.
The constructive form of the regulatory function of risk is that the ability to take risks is one of the ways of a successful entrepreneur.
The protective function of risk is manifested in the fact that if risk is a natural state for an entrepreneur, then a tolerant attitude towards failures should also be normal. Proactive, enterprising business executives need social protection, legal, political and economic guarantees that exclude punishment in case of failure and stimulate justified risk.
To take a risk, an entrepreneur must be sure that a possible mistake cannot compromise either his business or his image.
The analytical function of entrepreneurial risk is associated with the fact that the presence of risk presupposes the need to choose one of the possible solutions, in connection with which the entrepreneur, in the decision-making process, analyzes all possible alternatives, choosing the most profitable and least risky ones.
Considering the functions of entrepreneurial risk, it should be emphasized once again that, despite the significant potential for losses, which carries a risk, it is also a source of possible profit. Therefore, the main task of an entrepreneur is not a rejection of risk at all, but the choice of decisions related to risk based on objective criteria, namely, to what extent an entrepreneur can act when taking a risk.
In addition to everything, entrepreneurial risk also performs a social function. By contributing to an increase in the efficiency and sustainability of reproduction, it thereby creates a real material base to meet social needs, to improve the well-being of the population. With the stable operation of enterprises, firms and their associations, employment of the population is stabilized.
Economic risk develops entrepreneurial abilities not only among entrepreneurs themselves, but also among managers, specialists, and all employees.
Federal State Educational state-financed organization higher professional education
"FINANCIAL UNIVERSITY
UNDER THE GOVERNMENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION "
(Financial University)
Department "Microeconomics"
COURSE WORK
on the topic:
"ENTREPRENEURIAL RISK: ITS ESSENCE, TYPES AND PECULIARITIES IN RUSSIA"
Completed:
Zaretsky Yuri KEF 1-2
Moscow 2013
Plan
Introduction
1.4 Risk Assessment Models
3.2 Ways to reduce the degree of entrepreneurial risks
Conclusion
Bibliography
Applications
Introduction
Risk, to one degree or another, constantly accompanies any human activity. He is a constant companion of human economic activity, sometimes exerting a decisive influence on its final result.
Even in the most plausible economic environment for every enterprise there is always the possibility of a crisis in economic phenomena. This probability is associated with risk. Risk is inherent in any sphere of human economic activity, which is due to the abundance of reasons and conditions that affect a certain positive outcome as a result of specific decisions made by people.
The greatest degree of risk is achieved through the disorganization of the economy for a number of reasons. So, for example, it is enough to recall the 2008 World Financial Crisis ("Great Recession"), which manifested itself in September-October 2008 in the form of a very sharp deterioration in the main economic indicators in many developed countries, and the result of which was a global recession. The precondition for the 2008 financial crisis was the US mortgage crisis, the first signs of which appeared in 2006 in the form of a sharp drop in the number of home sales, which in early 2007 escalated into a high-risk mortgage crisis. In the near future, reliable borrowers also experienced problems with lending. In the summer of 2007, the mortgage crisis gradually began to transform into a financial crisis. Bankruptcies of large banks began, and national governments began to rescue banks. Stock markets fell sharply during 2008 and early 2009. For companies, the share of the likelihood of receiving capital when placing securities has significantly decreased. In 2008, the crisis took on a global character and gradually began to manifest itself in a widespread decline in production volumes, a decrease in demand and prices for raw materials, and an increase in unemployment.
Thus, we can say that in the context of the global financial crisis, the rapid growth of activity and the scale of the spontaneous economic market, the involvement of an increasing number of small and medium-sized entrepreneurs becomes impossible, since the crisis literally increases the degree of risk, which disorganizes the economy. Solving issues related to "uncertainty" and risk in entrepreneurial activity play exclusively important role... Therefore, the relevance of the topic we have chosen is really extremely high and, of course, we must thoroughly study all aspects of entrepreneurial risk.
Let us recall that entrepreneurial activity is an activity aimed at generating income. Of course, along with entrepreneurial activity, there is, as we have already said, entrepreneurial risk, which forces the owner of the company to make one or another decision related to solving this not simple task, namely, reducing the level of risk.
Traditionally, entrepreneurial risk is understood as the risk arising from all types of entrepreneurial activity associated with the production of products, goods and services, and directly with their sale; financial and commodity-money transactions; commerce, as well as with the implementation of scientific and technical projects.
Commercial risk has an objective basis due to uncertainty external environment in relation to entrepreneurial activity (activity). The external environment, therefore, includes the objective economic, social and political conditions in which the entrepreneur operates and to the changes of which he must adapt.
entrepreneurial risk assessment russia
It is also important to note the fact that the development experience of all countries indicates that neglect or underestimation of economic risk when developing strategies and tactics of economic policy, making specific decisions inevitably restrains the development of society, scientific and technological progress, dooms the entire economic system to stagnation ...
Target term paper is to substantiate the essence of entrepreneurial risk, its types and characteristics.
Thus, we will define the goals of our work:
Consider entrepreneurial risk as an economic category.
Consider the functions and types of business risks, and the reasons that affect the degree of commercial risk.
Let us study the characteristic features of entrepreneurial risks in developed countries.
Let's define the main business risks in the Russian Federation and methods of their reduction.
The object of the research is the concept and practice of analysis and management of entrepreneurial risks in a market economy. Having studied the content, types and methods of assessing commercial risks, as well as considering the reasons that allow them to be managed and ensure their economic security in the Russian economic reality, we will be able to give an accurate assessment of business risk in Russia.
As the subject of our research, we will designate entrepreneurial risk in the USA, France and directly in Russia itself.
Chapter 1. Theoretical Foundations of Entrepreneurial Risk
1.1 Entrepreneurial risk as an economic category
In the classical theory of entrepreneurial risk (J. Mill, N.W. Senior), it is identified with the mathematical expectation of losses that have every chance of happening as a result of the chosen decision. Risk is defined here as the damage that is caused by the implementation of the decision. This interpretation of the essence of risk was not accepted by all economists, which led to the development of a different understanding of the content of risk. In the 30s. 20th century economists A. Marshall and A. Pigou designed the foundations of the neoclassical theory of commercial risk, which are reflected in the following:
the merchant works in conditions of almost complete uncertainty;
entrepreneurial profit is a random variable.
Entrepreneurs are guided in their activities by the following criteria:
the size of the expected profit,
the magnitude of its probable fluctuations.
According to neoclassical theory, with a similar amount of possible profit, the entrepreneur chooses the option associated with the lowest level of risk. Thus, representatives of the neoclassical theory of entrepreneurial risk substantiated the position of "opponents of risk".
J.M. Keynes, on the other hand, turned his attention to the propensity of merchants to take big risks in order to achieve the higher profits expected in the future. In addition, he justified the need to introduce "risk costs" to cover the expected deviation of the actual revenue from the possible (expected), and also identified 3 main types of risk that are advisable to take into account economic life.
) risks, a certain fraction of the probability of which is quantifiable, and which can be insured (such risks become an item of production costs deducted from profit);
) risks, a certain proportion of the probability of which is incalculable, which explain the presence of a specific income for entrepreneurs.
In our domestic economic science, the problem of risk, unfortunately, was given much less attention. In the 20s. of the last century, a number of legislative normative acts were adopted, taking into account the presence of industrial and economic risks in Russia. But as the administrative-command system was established, real entrepreneurship was completely destroyed, and already in the mid-30s. the category "risk" was labeled as bourgeois, capitalist. This is due to the fact that under the conditions of the command-administrative system of the economy, the economic situation was determined "from above" by order in the form of a set of norms and certain rules developed by economists on the basis of the postulates of the Marxist-Leninist theory, for which risk could not be a subject economic analysis.
It should be said that the problems of risk in the socialist economy of the then Russia were developed by domestic authors S.N. A.P. Koshelenko Algin, D.V. Tulin, I.M. Syroezhin, D.N. Nazarov. At the same time, in most works, the emphasis was made on the fact that the risk category is unreasonably ignored in the wider economic literature, or has very little meaningful interpretation. Most of the time was devoted to general methodological problems, as well as practical solutions related to the conclusion of credit, foreign trade and other transactions, the introduction of new technologies. Some experts focused on the differences in the assessment of economic risk in the countries of the capitalist and socialist camp, associated with different motivations for the activities of economic entities - the implementation of the plan and the receipt / max economic profit. In a planned economy, it was necessary to deal with the risk of unfulfilled state. plan, violations of obligations on a contractual basis, underdelivery of products and the like, most often caused by non-compliance with the norms and rules of economic activity. And in a market economy, the primary elements of risk are the uncertainty of the market situation, demand, prices and behavior of the buyer (consumer), which determine the final results of the activities of economic entities.
The implementation of a number of economic reforms in the Russian Federation aroused interest in the problems associated with the consideration of risk in economic activity. The very concept of risk in the process of the formation of market relations not only received its further development, but in fact also became in demand. It is worth noting that the skills and knowledge of entrepreneurial activity in relation to the forms of economic risk inherent in a directive-driven economy should also be taken into account when defining modern domestic theoretical provisions of commercial risk.
Today there is no common understanding of the essence of "risk". This can be explained by the fact that there is a multidimensional nature of this phenomenon. There is also an almost complete disregard for it by our economic legislation in the context of economic practice and management activities. In addition, risk is an extremely complex phenomenon with many heterogeneous and sometimes opposite existing foundations. This is due to the possibility of the existence of several definitions of the word "risk" from different points of view.
Consider a number of definitions of "risk" that are given to us by domestic and foreign authors in our time:
Risk is a potential, numerically measurable opportunity for loss. The concept of risk is characterized by the uncertainty associated with the likelihood of adverse situations during the implementation of the project and, as a fact, the consequences.
Risk - the likelihood of losses, losses, shortfalls in planned income, profit.
Risk is the uncertainty of our future financial results.
Risk is a value in terms of a probabilistic event leading to a loss.
Risk - the likelihood of loss of values as a result of entrepreneurial activity if the environment and conditions for conducting activities change in a direction different from that provided for in plans and calculations.
It should be noted that the concept of "risk" has a rather long history, however, more intensively began to study various aspects of risk in the late 19th - early 20th century.
Thus, we examined commercial risk from the standpoint of a number of schools of economics. Now we should summarize the knowledge gained about entrepreneurial risk as an economic category, link the concepts together, relying on modern ideas about it.
Of course, all companies try to minimize risk and, in turn, maximize their profits. But at the same time, the lower the degree of risk, the less the opportunity to get high entrepreneurial profit. The relationship between these factors is directly proportional. In principle, it is impossible to avoid risk, since it does not exist by definition of its zero level. Therefore, the task of the manager of a company (firm, organization), according to the concept of risks, is not to reduce risk in its pure form, but to find a reasonable ratio between the level of risk of the decision made and the profitability of its result.
The economic crisis in all countries is becoming one of the factors of increasing entrepreneurial risk, which leads to an increase in the number of non-marginal enterprises. The significant growth of non-profit companies allows us to conclude that it is impossible to do without taking into account the risk factor in production and economic activities, because it is difficult to obtain the results of the entrepreneur's commercial activity that are adequate to the real conditions. Therefore, it is not possible to form an effective mechanism for the functioning of a firm in interaction with other economic entities on the basis of a concept without a risky business.
Our earlier analysis of the multiple values of "risk" allows us to determine the priority points that are natural for risk situation... These include:
The spontaneous nature of the event, which affects which of the possible outcomes is realized in practice;
Availability of other solutions;
The likelihood of expected outcomes.
1.2 Functions and types of business risks
The essence of entrepreneurial risk is closely related to the definition of the function performed by the risk. It is customary to highlight the following functions: regulation, stimulation, protection and choice. Let's consider the content of the named functions.
The stimulating function of risk is aimed at finding non-standard solutions to the problems that arise before the manager. Most of the enterprises and firms that achieve success, increase their competitiveness on the basis of risky activities. It should be noted that this type of management leads to more efficient production, which benefits both consumers and society as a whole.
The regulatory function of risk orients the manager to obtain, first of all, significant results by overcoming inertia, conservatism, psychological barriers that prevent acceptance and implementation. promising solutions... This function captures the ability to take risks, as one of possible ways successful entrepreneurial activity.
The protective function of risk shows itself in the fact that if risk is a normal state for a company, then a tolerant attitude towards failures should also be natural. Enterprising and proactive entrepreneurs need social protection in the form of political, legal and economic guarantees.
The function of choosing an entrepreneurial risk is associated with the fact that the presence of risk determines the need to choose one of the possible solutions. In this regard, the head, in the decision-making process, analyzes various options, choosing the most cost-effective and least risky. Depending on the specific content of the situation, the choice has varying degrees of complexity and is resolved in different ways.
The effectiveness of measuring and regulating the degree of risk is largely determined by knowledge and understanding of its classification.
Risk classification should be understood as the distribution of risk into certain groups for specific ones. signs to achieve the set goals (Fig. 1). Risk classification allows. place each risk in their common system... It creates opportunities for effective use appropriate methods and methods of risk management in commercial activities. Each risk has its own system of methods and methods for managing entrepreneurial risk.
Difficulty of classification. entrepreneurial risks lies in their diversity. There are a number of main types of risk, to which all firms, organizations, etc., without exception, are exposed. But along with the general, there are also characteristic ones. types of risk specific to certain types of entrepreneurial activity (activity): banking risks differ from risks in insurance activities, and the latter, in turn, from risks in industrial entrepreneurship.
Besides this, economic and. political development of modern production. creates new types of risk that are not easy. define and quantify them. The movement of the national economies of different countries is accompanied by the creation of complex financial ones. and production relationships. A "domino effect" arises, which in the event of the collapse of one firm entails a series of bankruptcies of others associated with this commercial organization - bankruptcy. Strengthening the computerization and automation of enterprises' activities leads to the possibility of losses as a result of a computer system failure.
Risks are usually divided according to a number of criteria. Consider the criteria for grouping risks.
So, depending. from the probable result (or risk event) risks can be divided into 2 large groups: pure and speculative.
Rice. 1 - Risk classification
Net risks can be defined as the probability of obtaining a non-positive (negative or zero) result. We will refer to them: political, transport, natural, part of commercial risks (production, property, trade), environmental and others.
Natural and natural risks are undoubtedly associated with the manifestation of natural forces (earthquakes, floods, storms, fires, epidemics).
Environmental risks - risks associated with environmental pollution processes.
Political risks are determined by the political stability in the country and the direct activity of the state. It is typical for them to manifest themselves when the conditions of the production and trade process are violated for reasons beyond the control of the economic entity.
Transport risks - risks associated with the transportation of goods (sea, road, river, air, rail,).
Entrepreneurial risks pose a threat of losses in the process of financial and economic activities and represent the uncertainty of the results from this entrepreneurial activity. On a structural basis, we can divide entrepreneurial risks into production, property, financial and trade.
In terms of the area of manifestation, entrepreneurial risks should be divided into internal and external risks. So the source of external risks is the external environment of the enterprise. A merchant cannot influence these risks, he is only able to a certain extent only to foresee and take them into account in his entrepreneurial activity. So, to external risks, we can attribute the risk from unforeseen changes in the legislation governing commercial activities in the country; instability of the political regime in the country; as a result of strikes, nationalization, embargoes, etc. The source of internal risks is the organization itself. These risks manifest themselves in the case of illiterate management, erroneous marketing policies, which are reflected in the adoption of irrelevant business decisions, as well as as a result of internal abuse. The main risks of internal content are personnel risks associated with the professional level and characteristics of employees of a commercial firm; then risks are technological, technical, production, etc.
The following risks are distinguished by types of entrepreneurial activity: financial, insurance, production, legal, commercial, investment and innovation.
Nowadays, in the context of doing business, two types of commercial risk are distinguished according to the level of business decision-making: risk at the level of individual enterprises or local (microeconomic) and global (macroeconomic) risk. Until the mid-80s in Russia, the main share of risk was at the global level - the level of the state itself. With the emergence of organizations different forms property ownership situation has changed dramatically, now the dominant part of the risk is borne by firms. By independently identifying their innovative and investment activities, independently concluding contracts with suppliers and consumers, they fully take on the commercial risk associated with their decisions.
We can also divide all business risks into two large groups in accordance with the possibility of their insurance: which cannot be insured and those who are insured. A merchant can, in particular, shift the risk to other economic entities, partially protect himself by making some costs in the form of insurance premiums. For example, an entrepreneur can insure the risk of loss (or destruction) of property, the risk of accidents, fire, etc.
The insured risk is a possible event or a set of events at the time of the occurrence of which insurance is carried out. Insurance risks, as we have already said, include possible losses as a result of natural disasters, car accidents, damage to products at a warehouse or during transportation, default by subcontractors or suppliers, employee errors, an accident with employees, etc.
If the losses incurred as a result of the insured risk are covered by the payments of insurance companies, then, consequently, the losses incurred as a result of the risk are reimbursed from the personal funds of the company.
The main internal sources of risk coverage are the organization's own capital, as well as the reserve funds intended for this. In addition to internal, there are also external sources of coverage of probable losses, for example, the main bank is responsible for subsidiary banks.
For reasons of loss, scientists distinguish dynamic and static risks. Static risks are possible damage resulting from negative actions on the assets of the organization of natural disasters (fire, earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, etc.); adoption of unfavorable legislation (loss of confiscation of property or inability to recover compensation from the culprit due to imperfect legislation); criminal acts; incapacity of key employees (senior staff of the company), which is associated with the difficulty of recruiting professional personnel, as well as losses that were caused by the transfer of ownership. The peculiarity of static risks is nothing more than the fact that they always carry losses for commercial activities.
In contrast to static risk, dynamic risk implies either profit for firms or its loss. Therefore, we can call them "speculative". Dynamic risks, due to their nature, are very difficult for a firm to manage.
The above classification of commercial risks is to a certain extent arbitrary, since it is very difficult to draw a clear line between certain types of risks. In addition, many risks are closely interconnected. Changes in the level of one of them immediately cause changes in the value of the other risk. But all risks affect the result of the production and economic activities of the company and therefore they must be taken into account in order to maintain the normal efficiency of the enterprise.
1.3 Factors influencing the level of entrepreneurial risk
Each enterprise (manufacturing, transport and others) is a complex production and economic system, which is influenced by many different factors. Their impact, which is different in volume and time (together or separately, or in various combinations), causes uncertainty, which, in turn, is a source of risk. Factors can be how they are embedded in the organization of the activity or strategy of the enterprise, how they can be the result of the actions of its head.
The factors causing entrepreneurial risks can be roughly divided into 2 groups:
subjective and objective;
external and internal.
The group "Objective factors" includes such circumstances of primary importance as "Quality of active resources" and "Quality of the situation". At the same time, the category "Quality of active resources" should include everything that an entrepreneur will need to ensure his planned business, in particular, the quality of his own and borrowed financial, economic and material resources. Everything else that the entrepreneur is unable to manage, which is beyond his control, but which significantly affects the financial and economic results of entrepreneurial activity, belongs to the category "Quality of the situation". The quality of the situation is determined by the circumstances dictated by the economic, political and social situation in the country or those countries where the entrepreneur conducts his business, as well as the quality of the personnel working with him, the conscientiousness of partners, etc.
The second group, conventionally named "Subjective factors", is made up of the characteristics of the entrepreneur's personality.
The conditions for doing business in Russia differ significantly from those in countries with established market economies. Therefore, along with the considered factors affecting the level of commercial risk in these countries, in the domestic economy there are a number of factors specific to our country.
Analysis state of the art the Russian economy makes it possible to single out the following factors causing the emergence of entrepreneurial risk:
irresponsibility and non-obligation of economic entities in the country;
vagueness and continuous change of normative and legislative acts regulating the activities of enterprises, firms and organizations;
volatile inflation rates;
political instability;
lack of real business law, which prevents the reduction of the overall level of risk through contractual relations;
lack of personal responsibility of a significant part of company managers for the results of their activities, which increases the level of risk of any of their decisions;
interference of politicians in the economy;
an increase in the number of employees in the management apparatus;
unstable tax legislation;
low level of basic education of entrepreneurs.
We can subdivide all influencing factors in relation to an economic entity into two groups - external and internal. Let's consider each group of factors.
External factors should be understood as those conditions that an entrepreneur or manager, as a rule, cannot change, but must take into account, since they affect the final results.
The group of internal factors affecting the level of risk includes a large number of diverse and diverse factors, usually divided into subgroups: enterprise strategy, principles and methods of managing it, resources and the level of their use, marketing activities, methods used by the organization to protect business secrets, product quality (works, services), etc. Each of these subgroups includes its own specific factors contributing to the emergence of risks.
1.4 Risk Assessment Models
In its most general form, the entrepreneurial risk assessment model can be expressed by the following mathematical model, which is a ratio:
where R is an assessment of the consequences of a risk event;
P is the probability of a risk event;
I - potential consequences risk factor.
Analyzing entrepreneurial risk and constructing an adequate model for its assessment is very time consuming.
This is explained, on the one hand, by the instability of the causes of risk factors, and, on the other hand, by the complexity of formalizing the results of activities. Therefore, when justifying and developing mathematical models for assessing entrepreneurial risk, a thorough analysis of the nature of the initial information about the causes and factors of entrepreneurial risk, as well as the purpose of the study, is required.
Depending on the nature of the proposed information, which is available at the moment of setting the problem, and the chosen method of describing uncertainty, the following types of mathematical models for assessing the consequences of risk are most common: deterministic; stochastic; linguistic and gaming.
Rice. 2 - Mathematical models of risk assessment
A deterministic model is understood as a model in which the nature of the causes and risk factors is known and for each action it is determined that it will certainly lead us to some specific outcome. In such cases, we say that classical mathematical methods of analysis and mathematical logic, programming, etc. are used for the mathematical description of financial risk.
Stochastic models imply the randomness of causes and risk factors, therefore, we say that risk is described by a probability distribution over a given set. Required condition for the reasonable use of this model - the availability of statistically important information about past implementations of the unknown variable.
In linguistic models, uncertainty is described by a verbally defined membership function. To construct a membership function, expert judgments are used about the level of predisposition of one or another possible event to be realized.
In the case of constructing a game (non-stochastic) model, only a set of independent values of the consequences of a risk event that can be realized is set. Statistical and mathematical games, utility theory, etc. are used as descriptions.
Thus, in the transition from deterministic models through stochastic ones to linguistic and game models, there is a decrease in the information content of the person who makes a decision about risk factors, and, as a consequence, a sharp drop in the level of accuracy of risk assessment, which negatively affects the result of income forecasting.
There are often situations when uncertainty cannot be described by us, and it is not possible to calculate the risk. In this case, risky decisions should be made on the basis of heuristics - a set of methodological rules of theoretical research, logical methods and finding the truth. Risk management has its own system of related rules and techniques for making decisions under conditions of partial or even complete uncertainty.
The risk indicator can serve as a quantitative expression of the outcome of a risk situation. We must say that there are different types of risk assessment indicators, which is due to the information situation in which a specific decision is made. The set of risk assessment indicators is shown in Fig. 3.
Consider a group of risk assessment indicators, formed according to the level of uncertainty in relation to the probability of a risk event.
Rice. 3 - Classification of risk assessment indicators
In conditions of certainty, the group of risk assessment indicators includes financial indicators that reflect the availability, placement and use of financial resources and thus provide an opportunity to assess the risk of the consequences of the performance of organizations.
We use the company's financial statements as initial information in assessing risk. Model database - a statement that risk can be measured by the deviation of the actual calculation result from the ideal, that is, the risk-free option. The peculiarity of this is that the object of our assessment is the risks that are characterized by the result of activities, that is, we are talking about complex risks that have formed under the influence of other financial risks. As criterion parameters for comparing indicators can be used, as a rule, calculated values or generally accepted values based on the data of the past periods of this company.
Due to the peculiarities of the initial information and the structure of indicators, risk assessment can exist and be carried out on the basis of deterministic models.
The disadvantages of these models include: insufficient flexibility of criterion parameters; use of old information; lack of dynamism; insufficient information content of financial statements;
In conditions of some uncertainty, risk should be viewed as a probabilistic category. The probabilistic indicators of risk assessment are calculated on the basis of the classical principles of statistical probability using stochastic models. Expression form - interval and point risk assessments. Initial information about the risk situation exists in the form of frequencies of occurrence of risk events.
We also provided comparative characteristics of risk assessment indicators (see Appendix 1).
Methods of expert risk assessment - a set of mathematical and logical procedures that are aimed at obtaining information from experts, its analysis and generalization in order to select the desired (rational) solution.
These methods involve the implementation of a number of procedures or stages:
formation of the goal and objectives of expert assessment;
selection of a method for collecting and processing expert information;
selection and formation of an expert group;
questionnaire or survey of experts;
processing and analysis of the results obtained.
We can classify expert assessment methods as follows:
Methods working together a group of experts implies the formation of a consensus in the course of a collective discussion of a risky situation. At times, these methods can be defined as methods of directly obtaining collective opinion. These include brainstorming techniques, business games, meetings, and scripts.
The methods of obtaining an individual opinion of the members of the expert group are based on the premature collection of information from experts interviewed independently of each other, with the subsequent processing of the collected information. These methods include interview methods, questionnaires.
In reality, expert judgment is not used as a basis for decision-making, but only complements quantification risk. This is due to many factors, including the subjectivity of these assessments. That is, the mathematical component of these methods is the processing and evaluation of the collected information / results.
Thus, we can conclude that mathematical methods are based on statistical information, and they give us an objective quantitative assessment of risk. At the same time, the only drawback of these methods / methods is the use of past information to predict the future situation.
The modeling of the financial situation is based on mathematical models. One of the areas of modeling in the field of finance is the modeling of risk situations in order to further assess the financial risk when making management decisions by the company. Let's consider the main models of financial risk management using the example of the stock market.
Despite the fact that the models of P. Samuelson and L. Bachelier assess changes in prices in the stock markets, they are not all risk management models, but rather form the basis for their development.
H. Markowitz's paradigm is based on a number of abstractions that simplify reality:
) when making an investment decision, an investor should be guided primarily by only two criteria - the level of risk and return on investment;
) the investor behaves rationally: out of 2 investment objects with the same profitability, he will give preference to the one with the lower degree of risk;
) investors strive to maximize profitability;
) characteristic feature there will be homogeneity of expectations for investors, that is, their assumptions regarding the risk indicator and future profitability coincide.
The main merit of G. Markowitz is the proposed probabilistic formalization of the terms "profitability" and "risk". In G. Markowitz's model, the probability distribution is used directly to calculate the ratio between the risk of investments and their expected return. The expected return on a portfolio of securities is found as the average value of the probability distribution, and risk is found as the standard deviation of the probable values of the return from the expected one.
The results of the research by G. Markovitz allowed us to translate the problem of choosing the optimal investment strategy into an exact mathematical language.
The model is based on the same assumptions as the G. Markowitz model, as well as the following:
for all investors, the investment period is the same;
information is freely and immediately available to every investor;
investors have uniform expectations, that is, they assess the future returns, risk and covariance of securities returns in the same way;
the risk-free interest rate is the same for every investor.
W. Sharp, developing the approach of G. Markowitz, divided the risk into 2 parts: 1st - market risk (systematic) for stock assets, 2nd - unsystematic. Sharpe, having previously determined the special reaction coefficients of the prices of bonds or shares to changes in the market situation, revealed a formula for calculating the comparative measure of the risk of securities based on the "line of efficiency of the debt capital market."
Based on the same model, W. Sharp proposed a simpler method for finding the optimal portfolio, in which the problem was reduced from quadratic to linear optimization.
The conclusions made by W. Sharp have become widely known as models for the valuation of long-term assets, which are based on a proposal, the essence of which is that in a competitive market the expected risk premium changes in direct proportion to the ratio.
Chapter 2. Features of entrepreneurial risks in developed countries
2.1 Features of entrepreneurial risks and their assessment in the US economy
The high-risk propensity inherent in many American businesses was introduced into the US economy by the fact that there were a lot of adventurous people among immigrants. They forced the more conservative and less risk-averse colonists to take risks in their commercial activities.
In American terms, risk is the chances of incurring loss or damage as a result of engaging in any activity. Certainly, some types of risk can be transferred to insurance organizations by concluding appropriate insurance contracts. However, most of the risks (changes in prices and demand, managerial mistakes, the wrong project chosen by the company, etc.) rests entirely with the merchants. The experience of many countries with market economies tells us that doing business is impossible without risk. Whoever does not risk - he eventually fails!
In the United States, risk applies to individuals, that is, each business organizer takes a risk, but this risk benefits society as a whole. Undoubtedly, the presence of diverse and numerous types of risk almost everywhere in the US business system provides great benefits to society and the national. economy. A businessman, based on assumptions about the degree of risk, tries to be careful when making responsible incremental decisions. The more thoroughly the preliminary study was carried out before the start of important and large projects, the less likely to incur losses, therefore, the less risk.
The presence of a risk factor for American entrepreneurs is a strong incentive to save money and resources. All this, in turn, forces organizations to analyze the profitability of projects overly carefully, create investment plans (estimates) in an overly responsible manner, purchase resources, hire personnel, etc. One of the main reasons for wastefulness, uneconomical attitude to resources and means, as American economists believe, is the lack of consideration of the risk factor when making and developing incremental decisions, which is inextricably linked with alienation from property. Most likely, legislative changes in the field of property in our country should determine the risk factor, which should take its rightful place in our business life, and then the American experience in this area will be useful to us to a large extent.
As an illustrative example - with what ambiguous and sometimes difficult decisions, with what great risk entrepreneurship faces, but what benefit does a commercial organization give to society if its decision was really chosen correctly, let us give an example with the development of nylon by the well-known DuPont company.
During ten years of hard and often disappointing research work that cost $ 36 million, there were many doubts and reproaches from shareholders, academics, and the press. But in the end, the company achieved success, and along with this success, mankind received a material that in many ways changed our life today - nylon.
Usually in large commercial organizations large sums are allocated for research, which are written off in advance as losses. However, experience tells us that these funds are not wasted. Risk is an integral part of entrepreneurial activity, but it is accepted only after thorough calculations.
There are issues of entrepreneurial risk associated with the choice of a plan / project. There are many reference books and major studies on entrepreneurial risk in the United States. Each specialized magazine like "Fortune" or "Business Week" has special headings that are devoted to the problems of accounting for risk in credit, investment, purchase of securities, and so on. There are publications for people without financial education, for example, the magazine "Money". Almost all large financial companies (for example, "Merrill Lynсh") issue free guidelines on various issues of entrepreneurial risk.
Risk management is a top management priority in 78% of US mid-sized businesses. 3/4 American companies recognize the strong correlation (statistical relationship) of risk management and firm value.
But one way or another, the management of 1/3 of American enterprises does not know whether their company is suffering significant losses or not! For example, only 8% of mid-sized European companies have at least one professional risk manager. This is primarily due to the lack of personnel.
2.2 Features of entrepreneurial risks and their assessment in the French economy
In France, where entrepreneurial activity, and in it the prevention of entrepreneurial risk, historically occupy an important place in the economic system, and the support infrastructure was formed in the course of their development, changed following their needs, the role of the state is high, which traditionally plays a large role in the country's economy and its regulation.
As one of the largest economies in the European Union, France is in the process of economic development has developed many means and methods of creating legal, economic, financial and organizational conditions for the successful functioning of entrepreneurial activity in a highly competitive market environment. The infrastructure to support this sector of the economy has been created in France for decades and has many strengths.
The experience of France, a country where the infrastructure for supporting small businesses from entrepreneurial risk includes both state-owned companies that provide financial support and various private companies that provide various types of services, including educational, consulting, etc. Moreover, comprehensive support and in the domestic and foreign markets.
It should be emphasized that the study of the French experience in the formation of entrepreneurial activity and its support is practically not covered in the scientific literature.
It was noted above that entrepreneurial activity occupies an important place in the French economy, even if we consider only their number (more than 99% of the total, with micro-enterprises and private entrepreneurship accounting for 93.55%). It should be noted that entrepreneurial activity in France has changed significantly over the past 20-30 years. Previously, small manufacturing enterprises were a rather archaic segment of the market, since their owners could afford to purchase either outdated or cheap equipment. Since then, the situation has changed qualitatively. Modern small and medium-sized enterprises in the production sector use high technologies.
At the same time, one can note the lack of activity abroad in France, although comparative studies of enterprises - exporters and enterprises that sell their goods only in the domestic market, conducted in France, show that the former are large and are more productive and profitable.
Thus, the policy of supporting entrepreneurship is focused on solving social or economic problems in France, namely: reducing unemployment by creating new enterprises, improving the competitiveness of the economy by increasing the size.
The French government and business community recognizes the importance of moving away from government aid to small businesses to a policy of creating an enabling environment for entrepreneurship. And the support policy should ensure the sharing of risks (especially financial) not only during the creation of an enterprise, but also during its development, as well as limiting complex administrative procedures.
The main government body responsible for promoting the development of entrepreneurship is the Management of Trade, Crafts and Service Enterprises (Direction des Entreprises commerciales, artisanales et de servises), which is part of the Ministry of Economy, Finance and Industry (Ministere de l Eco, des Finances et de l Industrie). But the activity of the French state to support entrepreneurial business is complemented by the involvement of other partners and agencies, both state-owned and with a mixed structure, which makes it possible to affect a larger number of enterprises and find an intermediary for them that is most adapted to specific problems.
Since France is a member of the World Trade Organization, the French state cannot provide support in business activities in the form of direct subsidies, and is forced to resort to indirect methods. For these purposes, two organizations were created: ОSEО and Сoface.
ОSEО - state organization, formed in 2005 after the merger of the Bank for the Development of Small and Medium Enterprises (BDPME - la Bаnque de Dével Оppement des PME), National Research Support Agency (Аnvar - l Аgenсe nаtiоnаle de vаlоrisаtiоn de lа reсherсhe), the Agency for Industrial Innovation (АII - l Аgenсe de l innоvаtiоn industrielle) and the French Society for Guaranteeing Financing for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (Sоfаris - la Sosiete frаnsаise de gаrаntie des finances des PME). Its purpose is to finance and support entrepreneurship. ОSEО has supported more than 80 thousand enterprises.
To facilitate access to bank loans in entrepreneurial activity, OSEO is ready to share the risks of loans issued for the creation of an enterprise with banks, guaranteeing a certain amount (40 or 70%) of the repayment of financing or lending to enterprises together with banks. OSEO's activities in the field of financing and guarantees cover three types of needs of small businesses and their partners: long-term lending and co-financing with banks, short-term financing, various types of guarantees.
On the one hand, it is difficult to overestimate the activities of OSEO, since, for example, without the guarantee of this institution, practically no bank in France will provide a loan for the creation of a new enterprise. On the other hand, in forums and articles one can find dozens of opinions of entrepreneurs who believe that they were "deceived" by the banks that issued loans for the creation of their enterprises, the OSEO, which did not inform them enough, and the system as a whole, which contains deliberate ambiguity. Of course, we are not talking about deception, rather that the products provided by OSEO are not simple and unambiguous and those entrepreneurs who, during the economic growth phase, did not understand, for example, the conditions for the provision of OSEO guarantees or were misled by employees banks suffered during the crisis when their businesses went bankrupt.
ОSEО, provides support not only in the domestic market, but also to enterprises wishing to enter the world markets, however, the main company that guarantees export risks in France is Сoface (Compagnie frаncaise d assurаnсe pоur le сommerсe exterieur - French company for guarantees for international trade), created in 1946. Sofase deals mainly with credit insurance, which prevents and covers non-payment of any exporting enterprises (not only small and medium-sized ones). It can be noted that, on the one hand, the tools offered by French governmental and non-governmental organizations to support the activities of SMEs abroad are extremely diverse, but on the other hand, they are rather difficult to use, especially for small enterprises, where there is often a shortage of personnel familiar with the intricacies. their use.
In connection with the lag of France behind the countries-innovative leaders and the need to mitigate the consequences of the global crisis, it became necessary to significantly modernize the national innovation strategy. Most of the support measures used by the French government are aimed at indirectly supporting R&D in enterprises. For example, the use of tax incentives such as the research tax credit and the awarding of the Young Innovative Enterprise status has become one of the most important instruments of French innovation policy in recent years.
Thus, we can conclude that in modern France there is a strong political will to increase the amount of resources allocated to R&D. In fact, there is a strong emphasis on expanding private R&D by enhancing the innovative behavior of companies, especially SMEs. All support measures are in line with the main priorities and contribute to the strengthening of the trend of increasing spending on the creation of new innovative technologies and bridging France's lag in the creation of innovative products and technologies.
Risk management is a top management priority in 64% of French and Belgian mid-size firms.
On average in Europe, 20% of firms are engaged in risk management ad hoc, i.e. only during the incident, of which in France this figure is about 33%.
Only 8% of mid-sized European firms have at least one professional risk manager. This is primarily due to the lack of personnel.
Chapter 3. Practical foundations of entrepreneurial risk on the example of Russia
3.1 Main business risks in Russia
The process of managing entrepreneurial risks in Russia is developing rapidly, domestic companies are adopting the experience of Western firms in formalizing and quantifying their approach to managing entrepreneurial risks. Given the increasing complexity of this approach, it is not surprising that enterprises in Russia manage more risks than in other emerging market economies.
Let us consider the range of risks in entrepreneurship and answer the question whether Russian enterprises are actively managing these risks (see Chart 1).
In Russian companies, a higher degree of active management of most of the mentioned risks in entrepreneurship is noted than the average for companies in countries with emerging market economies. The degree of management of other risks in entrepreneurship is generally at the level noted in other emerging market economies, with the only real exceptions being price risks in entrepreneurship (77% in Russia versus 81% on average in emerging market economies) and market risks. or competitive risks in entrepreneurship (in Russia 73% versus 79% on average for countries with emerging market economies).
Some of the Russian executives interviewed noted the complexity of risk management in business in the face of a sharp change in market conditions. The analysis revealed that many companies in Russia consider the conscious maintenance of a positive image as an integral part of the competitive risk management system. More active management of reputational risks in Russia (92% versus 82% on average in emerging market economies) confirms this conclusion.
Graph. 1 - Risk Management in Emerging Markets
It is important to consider the question of which risks in entrepreneurship in Russia are considered the most significant. Based on the data obtained, the following diagram was compiled, reflecting the priority of entrepreneurial risks and methods of managing them.
Graph. 2 - The main risks in entrepreneurship faced by companies in Russia
In the survey, entrepreneurs mentioned market or competitive risk as the main risk factor in Russia. According to the results of a sample survey, entrepreneurs in Russia give them a priority level of 35%. In order to manage this risk, enterprises in Russia closely monitor the state and development trends of the market and strive to determine the strategy of their competitors. There is a conscious desire to form and maintain a positive image, as well as to raise the social status of the enterprise.
Russian enterprises consider credit risks or risks associated with insolvency of buyers as the main risks. Although these risks are of serious concern to enterprise entrepreneurs in all emerging market economies and rank second among all risks, enterprises in Russia give them significantly more weight (45% in Russia versus 25% on average in emerging market economies ). The study showed that a significant proportion of Russian enterprises, before establishing business relations with buyers or customers, conduct a rigorous due diligence of potential partners, including an assessment of the history of relations with a client, analysis of his creditworthiness and constant monitoring of activities. It is also common practice to limit the size of loans and work on a full prepayment basis.
In general, businesses in Russia view compliance with legal and regulatory requirements as a significant risk that needs to be controlled, but do not prioritize it as competitive, credit or foreign exchange risks.
The main obstacle to the growth of insurance of financial and business risks remains imperfect legislation
At a time when Russian enterprises are expanding their presence abroad, which is accompanied by the need to comply with local legislation, the point of view of Russian managers is somewhat different. The study showed that in Russia more importance is attached to the risks of non-compliance with regulatory requirements, as evidenced by the third place on the scale of priorities (27%) compared with sixth place at the international level (15%). As with other hard-to-control risks, such as market risks, many Russian enterprises follow a policy of constantly monitoring changes in the regulatory framework. Enterprises are more likely to react to changes in the international regulatory framework, but do not anticipate them.
A number of executives Russian companies also confirm the creation of specialized risk management units or legal departments, the competence of which includes the management of risks of non-compliance with regulatory requirements.
Transactional risks were another area that enterprises in Russia place more emphasis on than on average in other countries (19% versus 9% on average for emerging market economies). Measures to manage these risks are varied and include a thorough assessment, a clear and documented approach, trained personnel in risk management, continuous monitoring at all stages, and insurance of transactions.
In addition, entrepreneurs in Russia, as well as in other countries with emerging market economies, cite currency or liquidity risks, political, personnel and price risks as the most significant risks requiring management in the domestic market.
Imperfection remains the main obstacle to increasing insurance of financial and business risks. Russian legislation.
Insurance of business and financial risks in our time remains a "curiosity" in the Russian Federation. But as the country integrates into the world economy, it will become much more in demand than it is now.
If we say that insurance is the highest mathematics of finance, then, of course, we will have to be told that insurance of financial risks is the highest mathematics of insurance, because they condition each other. In the category of financial risks, we include a fairly wide and not fully defined list of risks.
When we mention business risk insurance, this is a different case. Often, when we talk about insurance of financial and business risks, we do not distinguish between these two types.
But the law "On the organization of insurance business in Russian Federation"contains the" Classification of types of insurance "(Article 32.9), in which 2 different types are distinguished:" Insurance of financial risks "and" Insurance of business risks ".
The object of insurance of financial risks is the property interests of the policyholder, which are associated with the occurrence of expenses or losses due to the circumstances that were stipulated in the insurance contract.
A distinctive feature of business risk insurance, therefore, are the risks that are directly related to the implementation of the insured's business activities. This category also includes insurance of credit risks, accounts receivable, and insurance against business interruptions.
Having data Federal Service on financial markets Russia (Fig. 2), we can say that in 2011 insurance companies collected 12.03 billion rubles of premiums in the business and financial risk insurance sector, which is significantly higher than the previous year, and the difference is 46.7%. Although, we should note that, at the same time, the share of these types of insurance in the total volume of the insurance market excluding compulsory medical insurance at the end of the year amounted, according to various calculations, from 1.8 to 3% of the total volume of insurance premiums collected in the market, and if we are talk only about D&O insurance - that's about 1%.
Fig. 4 - Insurance of business and financial risks.
"Most likely, the traditional hope for the Russian" maybe "and the fact that financial losses will somehow be avoided also plays a role. But recently, the recognition of this type of insurance as an effective and relatively inexpensive business tool is growing. for example, operational or credit risks, the company becomes more attractive to investors and lenders. "
The formation of a market system is also hindered by the general unpreparedness of insurers to start systemic financial insurance. risks, as well as the macroeconomic situation both in the Russian Federation and in the world, which does not always enable insurers to adequately assess risks.
The main obstacle to the development of financial insurance. risks still remain our imperfect legislation. Financial risks, for example, do not have a separate article in the Civil Code of the Russian Federation, there is no separate law.
Tax incentives are not provided for every type of business risk insurance. Here is an illustrative example: in the Russian Federation, almost any type of insurance, with the exception of property insurance, is paid for from profit.
Another problem is the fact that foreign insurers do not have the right to take part in the insurance of our Russian residents. Eliminating this problem would allow our policyholders to have open access to first-class foreign companies, which could raise competition to a completely new level and, therefore, this would ensure the development of the segment in particular and the market as a whole. Imperfection (in terms of - underdevelopment) of the market poses obstacles and therefore the number of insurance companies that would be willing to offer quality services financial risk insurance remains small.
In reality, there are not so many insurers that would be able to take such risks, which reflects the correctness of our judgments before. This kind insurance is in demand, however, the possibilities of insurers are limited, and many do not specifically want to take such risks for insurance due to imperfection legislative framework and the lack of law enforcement practice on the territory of the Russian Federation.
The changes currently taking place in the economy of the Russian Federation create not a low risk background for all kinds of economic activities. The discipline of managing the risks of a market economy in the highest circles of Russia remains rather unsettled: the position of "risk manager" and related topics are mentioned in several programs of universities, but the question of adopting an appropriate standard is unjustifiably delayed. A large number of businessmen who live in conditions of daily incessant risks cannot afford to divert their attention from current affairs in order to study risk management and the risks of their company as well.
Drastic changes in Russia began in a collapse Soviet Union, political and economic instability, inconsistency of a number of laws. This course of events inevitably increased the overall level of risks in the economy of our country. This is important, because the level and specificity of risks to a decisive extent affect its investment and general business climate.
For Russia, most of the existing experience related to risks is only a foreign share. It would be sad to say it, but the Russian economy is becoming a "leader" in catastrophes and losses, and conscious risk management has not yet become a standard management activity, which, as already mentioned, has long existed in the West and America. At one time, all countries with developed market economies went through periods of development similar to the modern period in Russia. Only this process was evolutionarily stretched over tens of years, which allowed them to accumulate experience, create specialized literature, develop market infrastructure, and form a culture that allows these nations to deal with unjustified risks: high and low.
In the summer of 2010, we, with the direct support of the "Russian Society for Risk Management" (RusRisk) and " Russian Union industrialists and entrepreneurs "(RSPP), a mail survey was conducted of about a thousand firms that participated in the competition for the title of the best enterprise in the Russian Federation. executive heads(CEO), senior financial officers (CFO) or deputy senior executives for development and / or marketing. The conclusions that we can draw on the basis of this study are interesting. Below are the main results of the survey.
Most of the respondents consider the risk situation in the Russian Federation to be about 1.5 times more tense than in countries with already, in their opinion, developed market economies. This is similar to the results of studies carried out by such industry leaders as Marsh, AIG, AON and Willis, who classify the Russian Federation as a country with an increased share of risk for almost all the most important risks. According to the results of a similar survey, respondents on average assess the riskiness of Russia at the level of 65-70 points on a 100-point scale. This is not to say that this is good or bad. This is indicative, because the Russian economy really requires the development of a risk management infrastructure, and most investors, with the exception of some venture capital funds, prefer to work in less "hot" economies. All this tells us that Russia does not have such a bleak prospect as people abroad think. Although, it's no secret that foreign investors underestimate Russian market... So, let's turn to the facts.
Here are the conclusions of yet another survey: foreigners estimate the Russian level of risks at 10-15% higher than Russian managers do. At the same time, Russian managers believe that it is easier and safer for foreigners to work in Russia than for domestic entrepreneurs; about 40% of competent respondents have increased sensitivity to risk, about 40% - moderate, and 20% - clearly underestimated; the risk spectrum from the most relevant risks to less relevant (according to a 100-point system) means (Fig. 3):
Figure 5 - Assessment of the Russian level by foreigners
The specificity of the risk environment in the Russian economy, briefly presented by us, leads to two main results - inadequate riskiness and inadequate caution of the organizers of enterprises (and in general, companies, firms, organizations), which ultimately leads to a drop in their level of competitiveness in the modern market. The risks increase every time the degree of instability increases, there are rapid reforms or spontaneous changes in the economy, that is, during periods of its transformation. The composition and the magnitude of many market risks. economies are influenced by people and various organizations. The frequency and severity of the consequences of probable, but not necessary and extremely undesirable events largely depend on their actual activity / actions. The behavior of firms is revealed by its management, that is, by the decisions made by their leaders. To solve high risk problems Russian economy it takes a lot, but 2 factors are of paramount importance: a robust education system and political will.
Another result of the protracted restructuring is obsolete fixed assets. The buildings and structures are old and not repaired for a long time. Machine tools, locomotives, aircraft and ships are worn out. Depreciation of fixed assets in the Russian economy as of the beginning of the XXI century. different experts estimate from 60% to 70%. The risks posed by the country's huge, large park, which is outdated and not properly maintained for many decades, are extremely high.
We should know that studies have shown that the composition of risks that is included in the current risk profile of Russian companies does not differ too much from similar parameters of Western organizations. Insurers and bankers have already done a lot to study the real risk profile of the Russian economy. However, this is not enough. We need to bring the level of knowledge and awareness of the risks of the modern Russian economy to the level of countries with old market traditions that emerged in the last century.
In the conjuncture of the Russian Federation, the need to quickly master the methods of risk management is primarily due to the fact that effective mechanisms to support organizations in crisis situations have not yet been developed. Most of the economically active objects are legally independent. This means that there is no obligation for government support or protection in the event of a strike, accident or financial hardship. The existing state systems of justice, arbitration and enforcement are not only ineffective, but sometimes used for aggressive purposes. In other words, the economic independence of an economic entity implies both an increase in opportunities and an increase in dangers. This is a general increase in strategic risk, from which follows an increase in risks throughout the entire risk space. In such conditions, former socialist organizations or newly created capitalist companies are obliged to personally take care of preventive measures to protect their own stability, to create vital reserves, to mobilize internal and external funding, both to prevent unwanted events and to recover from them. The situation is also worsening due to the fact that the Soviet mentality of many organizers and managers of enterprises has not been overcome, who see state bodies as a reliable stabilizing factor, whose authority is indisputable for them. In reality, things now have to deal with sharply increased uncertainties of various kinds and types without the participation of the state - direct state support.
.2 Ways to reduce the degree of entrepreneurial risks
Entrepreneurial activity involves risk. The task of the entrepreneur is activities aimed at reducing the degree of entrepreneurial risk as much as possible. To solve the problem, all kinds of methods are used: diversification, limiting, insurance, reserve funds to cover unforeseen expenses, risk distribution, getting more information about the upcoming choice and results.
Diversification has such a definition as the distribution of investment between various activities, the results of which are not directly related to each other.
The peculiarity of diversification is that an enterprise that incurs losses in one type of activity can make a profit at the expense of another type of activity. Diversification makes it possible to increase the resilience of an enterprise to changes in the business environment.
Insurance plays a significant role in entrepreneurial risk and has its own definition, it is a kind of "transfer" of certain risks to the insurance company. Property and accident insurance are widely used to reduce risk. Property insurance is usually divided into the following forms: contract construction risk insurance, equipment insurance, cargo insurance, etc. Accident insurance includes general civil liability insurance and professional liability insurance. Also widely used in our country is such a type of insurance as hedging, which is the insurance of the price of goods against the risk of either an undesirable fall for the organizers of production, or an increase that is unfavorable for the consumer.
According to the technique and purposes of the transaction, hedging is divided into hedging by sale, that is, the preparation and acceptance by the manufacturer or the commodity owner of a futures contract in order to insure against a decrease in price when the sale of goods in the future, either already available or not yet produced, but provided for mandatory delivery on time; hedging by purchase - conclusion by a seller or a consumer of a futures contract with the aim of insuring against price increases when purchasing the required type of manufactured product in the future.
Limit implies the attribution of the limit, i.e. deterministic amounts of costs, sale of goods on loan, amounts of capital investment, etc.
Reserving funds to cover unforeseen expenses implies establishing a balance between possible risks and the amount of costs required to overcome the negative consequences of these risks. This method of risk reduction is most often used in the execution of various kinds of projects. In general cases, the reserve is applicable to finance additional work, compensate for unforeseen changes in material and labor costs, overhead costs and other kinds of costs arising during the implementation of the assigned project.
By risk sharing, we mean the sharing of risk between the participants in the project itself. The growth in the size and duration of investment, the introduction of new technologies, the high dynamics of the external environment - all this increases the degree of risk of the accepted project. So, one of the ways to share risk is factoring operations. In the practice of foreign banks, the development of factoring operations is associated mainly with the need of individual suppliers for accelerated receipt of payments, which they consider dubious. As a rule, in such situations there is a risk associated with non-payment of money by the payer at all. The bank, which bought such claims from the supplier, in this case may incur losses itself. Factoring operations are extremely high-risk operations. The size of the commission depends both on the level of risk (on the level of "doubtfulness" of the debt being repurchased) and on the duration of the contractual grace period. In some cases, it reaches up to twenty percent of the total payment. Any management decision is made in conditions where the results are not defined and information is not complete or when it is even limited. Thus, the broader the information source, the more opportunities to make a better forecast and reduce the degree of perceived risk. The cost of complete information should be calculated as the difference between the probable cost of any particular activity (project), when complete (or almost complete) information is available, and the expected cost when the information is incomplete.
There are 3 main principles for reducing risk that should be considered common in business reality:
not to risk more than your own capital allows;
always be aware of the consequences of the risk;
not risk too much for the sake of little.
Conclusion
Any enterprise bears the risks associated with its production, commercial and other activities, and the heads of the enterprise are responsible for the consequences of the management decisions taken by the company. The risk factor in entrepreneurial activity increases significantly during periods of unstable economic conditions, accompanied by inflationary processes, super-expensive loans, etc. This was especially pronounced at the beginning of the 2008 World Financial Crisis.
We considered entrepreneurial risk as an economic category, with the result that we defined risk as an event that may or may not occur.
Of course, entrepreneurial risk is the flip side of economic freedom, a kind of payment for it. The freedom of one organizer of an enterprise is accompanied at the same time by the freedom of other entrepreneurs. It is quite rightly assumed that he who does not take risks does not win. To achieve economic profit, an entrepreneur is obliged to consciously make a risky decision for himself. We can also define entrepreneurial risk as the danger of a potentially probable, possible loss of capital or the receipt of only part of the income in comparison with the option that involves the rational use of capital in this type of entrepreneurial activity ...
Business in Russia is an extremely risky business, and the problems of insuring these risks are becoming perhaps the most important and urgent among other insurance problems.
The variety of business risks is very large - from fires and natural disasters to ethnic conflicts, changes in legislation and fluctuations in inflation. However, they have a single special feature that sets them apart from general concept"risk" is a subjectivity that reflects the impact on the degree of risk of personal human qualities of the organizer of the enterprise. A fire can happen at any enterprise, but with a high degree of probability it will happen where an entrepreneur, in pursuit of superprofits, neglects fire safety rules. Therefore, when insuring business risks, the main thing is to be able to distinguish between objective risk factors from subjective, speculative ones, which depend solely on the personality of the entrepreneur. Such subjective risks for insurance, as a rule, are not accepted in practice.
Entrepreneurial risks largely depend on the type of entrepreneurial activity - production, services, trade. Depending on this, certain types of property and liability insurance are applied, and if we are talking about protecting the personal interests of employees or the production manager himself, then the types personal insurance... Specific types of insurance of business risks are insurance of banking and financial risks, and we can also include insurance against the risks of foreign trade operations.
Financial risk is usually understood as the risk that arises in financial transactions (investing in banks, playing on the stock exchange, stocks, etc.). This risk is associated with non-receipt of income or with the loss of part (or even all) of the money and, in fact, is speculative. Therefore, only the objective part of financial risks associated, for example, with the bankruptcy of an enterprise - a partner of the policyholder, is accepted for insurance. Another type of financial risk is investment risk. It is associated with the specifics of investing (investing) funds in various projects. An important type of financial risk insurance is insurance against temporary stoppages in production, for example, due to a fire in a shop.
Banking, like any business, is inevitably associated with risks. In foreign, and in recent years and in domestic practice, insurance of bank risks is included in the general package of insurance coverage of banks.
Insurance of commercial and political risks of foreign trade operations in developed countries is an integral part of foreign economic activity. Political risks are associated with changes in government policy, legislation, and the emergence of armed conflicts in the country where domestic investors have invested. Commercial risks, in turn, are associated with the bankruptcy of foreign partners, loss of goods in transit, delays in payments, etc.
In general, business risk insurance is comprehensive, including all insurance industries ...
Bibliography
Official documents:
1.Law of the Russian Federation of November 27, 1992 N 4015-I "On the organization of insurance business in the Russian Federation" (with amendments and additions as amended on December 25, 2012)
Monographs, collective works, collections of scientific papers:
2.Avdiysky VI, Gerasimov P.A., Lebedev I.A. Analysis and forecasting of risks in the system of economic security of business entities. Study guide: 2 hours. Moscow: Finakademiya, 2007.
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Internet resources:
16.Information and analytical portal (PROFILE): [site]. URL: # "center"> Applications
Annex 1
Comparative analysis methods for assessing the consequences of risk
Group of methods Contents of methods Information base Indicators of risk assessment Advantages Disadvantages Point assessment of the probability of risk The probability of obtaining the actual value of the result is less than the criterion parameter. Based on the law of distribution of possible values of the results of activity Statistical data Probability of deviation of the result from the set value; frequency; frequency Objectivity Difficulty finding a suitable distribution function; based on historical data; the necessary statistical information is not always available; does not contain an assessment of the reliability of the obtained result Interval assessment of the risk indicator The probability that the result of the situation will be within the specified interval is calculated Statistical data The probability of deviation of the result from the specified value; the likelihood of obtaining such a probability of the result; confidence interval; time horizon Objectivity. Estimation of the probability of the result Difficulty of selecting a suitable distribution function; based on historical data; the necessary statistical information is not always available; the composition and structure of the assessed parameters (assets) must remain unchanged throughout the time interval Statistical assessment of the risk indicator The average expected value of the result and the variability of the possible result relative to the average expected value are calculated Statistical data Mathematical expectation; the indicator of the range of variation; dispersion; standard deviation; confidence interval; coefficient of variation Simplicity of mathematical calculations The variance does not show the sign of the deviation; a large amount of data is required; based on historical data; the necessary statistical information is not always available Expert risk assessment A set of logical and mathematical procedures aimed at obtaining information from expert specialists, its analysis and generalization in order to choose a rational solution Expert information A set of indicators generated within a specific study No statistical information is required Subjectivity of the assessment
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For the first time, the classification of entrepreneurial risks is presented in the works of J. Keynes. In his opinion, the cost of goods should include the amount of costs associated with increased wear and tear of equipment, changes market conditions and prices, as well as with destruction as a result of accidents and catastrophes, which he called the cost of risk, necessary to compensate for the deviations of the actual revenue of the product from the expected value.
J. Keynes noted that in the economic sphere it is advisable to distinguish three main types of entrepreneurial risks.
First of all, it is entrepreneurial risk or the borrower. This type of risk arises only when his own money is sent into circulation and the entrepreneur doubts whether he will really be able to get the benefit he expects.
The second type of entrepreneurial risk is lender risk... It occurs where credit transactions are practiced, and is associated with doubt about the validity of the trust placed in the event of deliberate bankruptcy or the debtor's attempts to evade its own obligations. Doubt can also be caused by the adequacy of the collateral for the loan in the event of an involuntary bankruptcy of the borrower, when the expectations of obtaining the expected income are not justified.
The third type of entrepreneurial risk is inflation risk... It is associated with a possible decrease in the value of a monetary unit and allows us to conclude that a money loan is always less reliable than real property. In addition, inflation negatively affects investment (especially in the long term) and puts debtors in a privileged position over creditors.
According to J. Keynes, all these types of entrepreneurial risks require a preliminary quantitative and qualitative assessment.
When defining the basic concepts in the field of classification of entrepreneurial risks, one distinguishes between the actual entrepreneurial risks and the system of entrepreneurial risks. The latter concept is much broader: in addition to the actual entrepreneurial risks, the issues of risk management, insurance of entrepreneurial risks, risk distribution among entities, changes in risk conditions, etc. are considered.
The actual entrepreneurial risks are divided into risks at the national level (within the economy of one country) and international risks (affecting the economies of different countries).
National risks include:
- risks at the macroeconomic level, covering the economy as a whole;
- microeconomic risks affecting individual manufacturing enterprises, institutions, organizations or individuals.
Let us first dwell on the characteristics of economic risks at the macroeconomic level.
These risks include national and local risks. The supreme bodies of state power are the subjects of national risk. The concept of local risk is associated with the implementation of more specific, specific tasks and manifests itself at the sectoral or regional levels of economic management.
In general, national risk arises when developing a strategy for economic development, adopting the concept of transformations, choosing and implementing various options and priorities in the country's development. Determination of priority areas is still the main one at the present time, since during the transition from a strictly centralized management system to the development of a market economy, the choice of priorities and priority of solving problems becomes a vital matter on a national scale.
Risks are classified by subject, type and manifestation. The subject of risk is a legal or natural person who is in a risk situation and is aware of it. Usually there are three subjects of entrepreneurial risks:
- manufacturing enterprises;
- individuals (individuals, income recipients);
- other entities (organizations in the non-productive sphere of activity, including government bodies).
A type of entrepreneurial risk is a grouping of situations that are close in terms of risk awareness and behavior in risky situations. In the modern economic literature, there is significant disagreement on the number of types of risk. Some classifications give up to ten to thirteen different types entrepreneurial risks. With all the variety of approaches to risk classification, there are several main types of it:
- industrial (clean);
- investment and innovative;
- financial;
- commodity;
- complex;
- banking.
The latter type of risks is singled out in a separate position due to the importance and specificity of its individual manifestations, but sometimes it is studied among financial risks.
The manifestation of entrepreneurial risk is understood as a combination of an individual subject with a separate type of risk. The manifestation of risk is a more specific concept of the type of risk, since for the same type of risk there can be several manifestations that concretize it. In addition, for the same type of risk for different entities, there will be different manifestations of entrepreneurial risks.
Let's highlight the main manifestations of risks by type for the most important entities - manufacturing enterprises.
Among the production risks, the main manifestations are the risks of stopping production and irregularities in the operation of the enterprise, as well as natural disasters, catastrophes and accidents (floods, earthquakes, fires, etc.). Production risks, in turn, are divided into risks in the field of industrial production and in other areas (mainly in the field of agricultural production).
Investment risks for manufacturing enterprises are manifested mainly at the stages of project preparation and implementation.
The main manifestation of financial risks for manufacturing enterprises is the threat of bankruptcy. This type of risk includes financial risks of non-receipt of income and risks of transactions with securities.
Commodity risks for manufacturing enterprises are manifested mainly in the risks of a shortage of goods and lack of demand for them.
The main manifestation of complex risks is inflation risk.
The main manifestations of banking risks are credit, interest, liquidity risks of the bank, on deposit operations and settlements, as well as bank abuse.
Of course, such a classification of risks by their types and manifestations is conditional, since it is impossible, for example, to establish clear distinctions between investment and financial risks.
The main manifestations of risks in individuals:
- with industrial risks - disability;
- in case of financial risks - failure to fulfill obligations and operations with securities;
- with commodity risks - unemployment.
The main manifestations of risks for other legal entities are the financial foreign exchange risk, commodity risk of demand for public services, the complex risk of the reaction of firms and consumers to government measures in the economic sphere, etc.
Risk- it is the likelihood of losses or a decrease in expected income or profit in comparison with the admissible option due to an accidental change in the conditions of economic activity, unfavorable, including force majeure, circumstances.
Under entrepreneurial risk it is customary to understand the possible (probabilistic) danger (threat) of the emergence of material and financial losses by the enterprise that are not provided for by the design concept of a part of the income as a result of entrepreneurial (production, commercial, investment and financial) activities in conditions of uncertainty and lack of information for making management decisions. The main prerequisite for the emergence of entrepreneurial risk is the presence of competition and alternative options for solving certain issues of enterprise development, the efficiency of its functioning.
The reasons for entrepreneurial risk are:
Suddenly unforeseen changes in the environment (price increases, changes in tax legislation and socio-political situation, etc.);
The emergence of more favorable offers for partners (the ability to conclude a more profitable contract, with more attractive terms and conditions of payment), which prompts them to refuse to conclude or fulfill previous agreements;
Changes in the target settings of partners (due to an increase in status, accumulation of positive results of activity, changes in strategy, etc.);
Changes in the conditions for the movement of commodity, financial and labor resources between enterprises (the emergence of new customs conditions, new borders, etc.).
Distinguish global(nationwide) and local(at the enterprise level) risks. They condition each other, influence each other, and at the same time are autonomous. For example, making a decision at the state level to change (tighten) tax, credit and financial policies introduces elements of risk into the activities of an enterprise. And vice versa, individual decisions taken at the level of enterprises to change the assortment and volume of production, implement certain social programs, and the like, may conflict with national interests and contribute to the emergence of global risks.
The duration of exposure is distinguished:
Short-term risks - risks in which the threat of losses is limited to a certain period of time (choice of an optional counterparty, transport risk when transporting a certain cargo; risk of non-payment for a specific transaction);
Permanent risks are risks that continuously threaten entrepreneurial activity in a given geographic area or in a particular sector of the economy (the risk of non-payment in a country with an imperfect legal system; the risk of banning and imposing quotas on production of products).
The sources of occurrence are classified:
The actual economic risk;
The risk associated with the personality of the workers;
Natural risk.
For reasons of occurrence, the following risks are distinguished:
Due to the uncertainty of the future;
Unpredictable behavior of partners;
Lack of information.
By types of enterprises, the risk is classified into industrial, commercial and financial.
Production risk- this is the risk associated with the production of uncompetitive products (works, services), with the implementation of inefficient production activities, inadequacy of the quality of products to demand, an increase in material or other costs, an increase in the loss of working time, payment of increased taxes and interest on a loan, which leads to a decrease in the expected production volumes and efficiency. Industrial risk includes many risks, such as technical and investment.
Technical risk - the risk of losses caused by the use of ineffective technologies and materials, equipment breakdowns.
Investment risk - the risk of incurring losses or not making a profit as a result of investing in new equipment and technologies, the production of products on the basis of which will not meet the demand.
Commercial risk - risk in the sale of manufactured goods and services or in the purchase of necessary resources by the enterprise. Reasons for commercial risk: a decrease in sales volume due to changes in the market situation, an increase in the purchase price of resources, an unexpected decrease in the volume of purchases, loss of goods in the course of circulation, an increase in distribution costs. For example, commercial risks include:
Risks of wrong choice of economic goals of an entrepreneurial project (unreasonable determination of priorities of the general economic and market strategy of the enterprise; inadequate assessment of the needs of its own production and external consumption);
Risks of non-financing of the project or disappearance of the source of financing for the project during its implementation;
Risks of non-compliance with the planned schedule of expenses or the schedule of income for the project;
Marketing risks of selling products or purchasing resources for an entrepreneurial project;
Risks of interaction with counterparties and partners;
Risks of unforeseen costs and excess of the project cost estimate (risk of increasing market prices for resources; risk of increasing interest rates in the future; risk of the need to pay fines and arbitration and court costs);
Risks of unforeseen competition (the risk of enterprises from other industries entering the industry; the risk of the emergence of local young competing enterprises; the risk of expansion into the local market by foreign exporters).
Financial risk - risk in the sphere of the enterprise's relations with banks and other financial institutions. The financial risk of an enterprise is most often measured by the ratio of the magnitude borrowed money to the amount of own funds. The higher this ratio, the more the company depends in its activities on creditors, the greater the risk, because the termination of lending or tightening of credit conditions may lead to the suspension of production.
You can find an additional classification of entrepreneurial risks.
Depending on the level at which they arise and what the scale of their action is, the following risks are distinguished:
megaeconomic, associated with the functioning of the world economy as a whole;
macroeconomic, associated with the functioning of the economic system of a given state;
mesoeconomic, formed at the level of individual sectors of the economy and specific areas of business;
microeconomic, formed at the level of individual economic entities.
Taken together, all the above risks form single economic risk stream, in constant motion, since there are so-called "butt layers" between levels and therefore individual risks "live" at different levels at the same time.
Depending on the source of the causes that cause the emergence of a risk situation, risks are distinguished external and internal . The source of occurrence external risks is the environment external to the enterprise. At the same time, environmental factors can have both direct and indirect, i.e. indirect, impact on the life of the organization. Managers of the organization cannot influence these risks, but only anticipate and take them into account in their activities. For example, possible changes in legislation, changes in consumer tastes, aggravation of competition, stability or instability of the political regime in the country, strikes, nationalization, wars, etc. Internal risks arise under the influence of factors of the internal environment of a business entity, for example, in the case of ineffective management, erroneous marketing policy, as a result of intra-firm abuses. Such risks can be significantly reduced due to the effective organization of production and economic activities and management.
It should also highlight acceptable, critical and catastrophic risks . Acceptable risk- this is the threat of losses in a smaller amount or at the level of the expected profit from the implementation of a particular project or business operation. Critical risk associated with the danger of losses in the amount of the costs incurred for the implementation of the project or business operation. At the same time, the critical risk of the first degree is associated with the threat of obtaining zero income, but with the reimbursement of the material costs incurred. Critical risk of the second degree is associated with the possibility of losses in the amount of full costs as a result of the implementation of a project or business transaction. Under catastrophic risk the risk is understood, which is characterized by the danger of losses in an amount equal to or exceeding the value of the entire property of the organization. Catastrophic risk tends to lead to bankruptcy.
According to the degree of legitimacy of economic risk, justified and unjustified (illegal) risks. The border between them in different types of production and economic activities, in different sectors of the economy is different.
All business risks can also be divided into two large groups in accordance with the possibility of insurance: insured and non-insured . Insured risk- a probable event, in the event of the occurrence of which insurance is provided. Depending on the source of danger, insurance risks are divided into risks associated with the manifestation of the natural forces of nature, and risks associated with targeted human actions. If the losses arising from the insured risk are covered by the payments of insurance companies, then the losses arising from the insured risk are reimbursed from the organization's own funds.
In addition, the risks are subdivided on pure and speculative ... Peculiarity net risks lies in the fact that they almost always carry losses. At the same time, losses for an organization, as a rule, mean at the same time losses for society as a whole. Unlike pure risks, speculative risks carry either losses or profits for the organization.
Net risks, depending on the cause of their occurrence, are subdivided into natural, environmental, political and commercial. ... TO natural and natural risks include the risks associated with losses as a result of a negative impact on the assets of the organization of natural disasters. Environmental risks are the risks associated with environmental pollution. Political risks associated with the political situation in the country and the activities of the state. Accounting for this type of risk is especially important in countries with unsettled legislation, lack of traditions and culture of entrepreneurship. To assess political risk, a global network of specialized analytical centers, both commercial and non-commercial, has been created, which calculate the degree of political risk in these countries for different countries.
Political risks are subdivided into risks of nationalization, transfer, termination of contract, hostilities and civil unrest.
Risks of nationalization are interpreted very broadly - from expropriation without adequate compensation to forced redemption by the authorities of the organization's property or, for example, restricting investors' access to asset management.
Transfer risks associated with the translation of local currency into foreign. They are due to the impossibility of carrying out full-fledged economic activities due to the limitation of the conversion of the national currency into the currency of payment.
Risks of termination of the contract associated with situations when the contract is terminated for reasons beyond the control of the partner due to the actions of the authorities of the country in which the counterparty organization is located, for example, due to changes in national legislation or due to the introduction of a moratorium on external payments.
Risks of hostilities and civil unrest associated with the impossibility of carrying out economic activities due to the named events, which can bring large losses and even bankruptcy.
Commercial risks pose a risk of losses in the process of production and economic activities; they are subdivided into property, production, and trade.
Property risks associated with the likelihood of loss of property of the organization due to: criminal acts (due to theft, sabotage, negligence); death or incapacity of key employees or the main owner of the organization (due to the difficulty of recruiting personnel of appropriate qualifications and problems of transferring ownership); threats to the property of third parties (there is a need for a forced termination of activities).
Production risks associated with the implementation of any types of production activities when the following situations arise:
Reduction in production volumes due to a decrease in labor productivity, equipment downtime, loss of working time, lack of the required amount of raw materials, materials, components, fuel, energy, and an increase in the level of rejects;
Decrease in prices for manufactured products, rendered services due to their insufficient quality, unfavorable changes in market conditions, falling demand;
Height material costs as a result of overconsumption of raw materials, materials, components, fuel, energy, as well as due to an increase in transport costs, trade costs, overhead and other costs;
The growth of the wage fund due to an increase in the number of employees or in connection with the payment of a higher wage level than it was planned;
An increase in tax and non-tax payments as a result of changes in their rates in a direction unfavorable for the organization;
Low supply discipline, interruptions in the supply of energy resources;
Physical and moral deterioration of equipment.
A separate group is distinguished as part of production risks technical risks, which are associated with the risk of losses arising from man-made disasters and equipment breakdown. Technical risks depend on the level of organization of production, timely implementation of preventive measures (regular equipment maintenance, safety measures). At the same time, the risks of losses arising from malfunctions in the operation of computer systems during information processing are called operational risks.
Production risks also include innovative risks, which occurs in the case of:
Negative results of research and development projects;
Wrong assessment of demand for new products, when a new product or service does not find a buyer;
Wrong assessment of the effectiveness of costs for new, cheaper technologies, since for a too short period of time the organization turns out to be the only owner of the new technology and the excess profit does not have time to cover the costs incurred;
Inconsistencies new products or services to norms and standards and the impossibility of selling the new equipment created thereby, since it is not suitable for the production of other products or services;
Inconsistency of the quality of a new product or service with the technical parameters planned in the course of design and technological development, due to the use of old equipment.
Trading risks arise in the process of selling goods and services, transporting and accepting them by the buyer due to:
Decrease in sales volumes as a result of falling demand, crowding out by competing goods, introduction of restrictions on sales;
Delays in payments;
Loss of goods;
Loss of quality of goods in the process of circulation (transportation, storage), which leads to a decrease in its price;
The increase in distribution costs in comparison with the planned as a result of the payment of fines, unforeseen duties and deductions, which leads to a decrease in the profit of the organization.
Risks associated with the transport of goods, transport risks, most often turned out to be the cause of conflicts between business entities.
Speculative risks arise in the process of the organization's relationship with financial institutions, therefore they are also called financial risks. Financial risks are divided into two large groups: risks associated with the purchasing power of money, and investment risks associated with capital investment.
To the risks associated with the purchasing power of money, include inflationary and deflationary risks, liquidity risks, currency risks.
Inflation risk - the risk that, when inflation rises, the received monetary incomes depreciate in terms of real purchasing power faster than they grow at par. In such conditions, the organization suffers real losses. Deflationary risk - the risk that with an increase in deflation there will be a fall in the price level and a decrease in the organization's income.
Liquidity risks - risks associated with the possibility of losses during the sale of goods due to changes in the assessment of their quality and use value.
Currency risks pose a risk of losses as a result of changes in the exchange rate that may occur in the period between the conclusion of the contract and the actual production of settlements on it during foreign economic, credit and other foreign exchange transactions. Distinguish currency risks for importer and exporter. Foreign exchange risks for the exporter associated with the fall in the exchange rate of foreign currency from the moment of receipt or confirmation of the order until receipt of payment and during negotiations. Foreign exchange risks for the importer associated with an increase in the exchange rate in the time interval between the date of order confirmation and the day of payment.
Currency risks include three types: economic risk, transfer risk, and transaction risk.
Economic risk for an organization is that the value of its assets and liabilities may change up or down due to future changes in the exchange rate.
Risk of translation has an accounting nature and is associated with differences in accounting for assets and liabilities of an organization in foreign currency.
Risk of transactions - it is the probability of a foreign currency cash loss on business transactions in a foreign currency. Transactional risk therefore considers the effect of changes in foreign exchange rates on the future flow of payments and on the future profitability of the entity as a whole.
Investment risks accompany organizations when they invest in certain projects and include the following subspecies: capital, selective, country, temporary, the risk of lost profits, the risk of reduced profitability, the risk of direct financial losses. According to experts, the level of investment risk in Russian organizations according to a 10-point system today averages 7-10 points, in US organizations - 1-4 points.
Capital risk - the risk that the investor will not be able to release the invested funds without loss.
Selective risk - the risk of the wrong choice of an object for investment in comparison with other options that have taken place.
Country risk - the risk of losses in connection with the investment of funds in objects under the jurisdiction of a country with an unstable socio-economic situation.
Time risk - the risk of losses that are associated with investing at the wrong time.
Profit loss risk - it is the risk of indirect financial damage in the form of non-receipt of profit as a result of failure to implement any measure.
Risks of decreased profitability include interest rate and credit risks.
TO interest rate risks the risk of losses to the organization as a result of an increase in interest rates paid on borrowed funds over the rates on loans provided. Interest rate risks also include the risks of losses that investors may incur in connection with changes in dividends on shares, interest rates on the market for bonds, certificates and other securities. An increase in the market interest rate leads to a decrease in the market value of securities, especially bonds with a fixed interest rate. With an increase in interest, a massive dumping of securities issued at lower fixed interest rates and early accepted back by the issuer under the terms of the issue may begin. The interest rate risk is borne by the investor who has invested in medium-term and long-term securities with a fixed percentage at the current increase in the average market interest compared to a fixed level. The investor could get an increase in income due to an increase in interest, but he cannot release his funds invested on the conditions indicated above. The interest rate risk is borne by the issuer, which issues medium-term and long-term securities with a fixed interest rate, with the current decrease in the average market interest rate in comparison with the fixed level. The issuer could raise funds from the market at a lower interest rate, but he is already bound by the issue of securities.
Credit risks associated with the possibility of non-fulfillment by the organization of its financial obligations to the investor when using an external loan to finance production and economic activities. Thus, credit risks are the risk of the borrower not paying the principal or interest due to the lender.
Credit risks also include the risks of events in which the issuer of debt securities is unable to pay interest on them or the principal amount of the debt.
Credit risks are divided into property, moral and business. Property risk due to the fact that the borrower's own assets may not be enough to cover the volume of the loan. Moral hazard associated with the moral qualities of the borrower, the danger of his bad faith. Business risk is determined by how much the organization is able to generate the necessary profit for the period of time for which it took out a loan, and is associated with the danger of deteriorating the competitive position of the organization that received a commercial or bank loan, or unfavorable economic conditions.
Risks of direct financial losses include exchange, selective and bankruptcy risks.
Exchange risks pose a risk of losses from exchange transactions. These risks include, for example, the risk of non-payment on commercial transactions, the risk of non-payment of commission to a brokerage firm.
Selective risks - these are the risks of the wrong choice of the method of investing capital, for example, the type of securities for investment when forming an investment portfolio.
Bankruptcy risks pose the danger of a complete loss of equity capital by the organization as a result of the wrong choice of the method of capital investment and its inability to pay for its obligations.
Entrepreneurial risk has a number of functions:
function of generating entrepreneurial income by taking advantage of the favorable market situation;
innovative the function that the entrepreneur performs for the production of innovative goods, meeting the needs of the market and ensuring sustainable reproduction on an innovative basis;
analytical a function that contributes to the implementation at the right time of the necessary economic maneuver to obtain entrepreneurial income;
social a function when risk stimulates the development of entrepreneurial abilities of employees of entrepreneurial structures, which increases their income, which means budget revenues and reduces the unemployment rate.
All factors affecting the growth of the degree of risk of the enterprise can be conditionally divided into external and internal; objective and subjective; direct and indirect impact.
External risk factors - adverse events in the environment external to the enterprise that are not influenced by the enterprise. External factors are called objective, independent of the enterprise itself:
these are inflation, competition, political, socio-economic and environmental crises, customs duties, the abolition of the most favored nation regime, the inability to work in zones of free economic entrepreneurship.
Factors of direct influence on risk - factors that directly affect the level of risk (changes in the tax system, competition in the market, changes in demand for products).
Indirect factors - factors that do not have a direct, direct impact on the level of risk, but contribute to its change (international situation, political and general economic situation in the country, economic situation in the industry, etc.).
It is advisable to analyze risk factors external to an enterprise in the context of a general description of its functioning in conditions of real or possible interaction with economic counterparties and environments.
So, the properties of the external environment relate primarily to natural and climatic factors; the socio-demographic situation in the region, which determines its labor surplus or lack of labor for various categories of workers, the prestige of a particular profession or type of activity; socio-political conditions on which the situation in the region depends, the degree of orientation of the population to productive labor, the level of social tension; the state of the consumer market as a background for the formation of regional needs for the company's products; the standard of living of the population as a factor in providing payment for this need; the purchasing power of the ruble; dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations; the general level of entrepreneurial activity, which characterizes the propensity of people to engage in entrepreneurial initiatives.
In the sphere of circulation, the activities of an enterprise may be exposed to such external factors as violation of agreed delivery schedules for raw materials, components and the like, unmotivated refusal of wholesale consumers to export or pay for the finished products received, bankruptcy or self-liquidation of counterparty enterprises or business partners, which leads to to the disappearance of suppliers of raw materials or consumers of finished products.
Internal risk factors generated by the production and commercial activities of the enterprise itself, the subjective decisions of its leaders.
In the process of production, reproduction, circulation and management, specific factors arise that can provoke the corresponding risks. TO risk factors of the main production activities include an insufficient level of technological discipline, accidents, unscheduled shutdowns of equipment or interruptions in the technological cycle of an enterprise due to a forced changeover of equipment (for example, due to an unexpected change in the parameters of raw materials or materials used in the technological process).
Risk factors for ancillary production activities- these are interruptions in power supply, lengthening in comparison with the planned time of equipment repair, failures of auxiliary systems (ventilation devices, water and heat supply systems, etc.), unpreparedness of the enterprise's instrumental economy for the development of a new product, etc.
In the service sector production processes enterprises, the risk factors may be disruptions in the work of services that ensure the smooth functioning of the main and auxiliary production. For example, an accident or fire in a warehouse, failure (full or partial) of computing power in the information processing system, etc. The reason for the deterioration of the economic situation of the enterprise may be insufficient patent protection of the enterprise's products and the technology of its manufacture, which allowed competitors to master the production of similar products.
Reproductive risks character are mainly associated with the unjustified investment activity of the enterprise and the processes of recruitment, training, retraining and advanced training of personnel.
Internal risk factors of management activities can be classified according to the level of decision-making: strategic, tactical or operational. At the level of making strategic decisions by the management of the enterprise, the following internal planning and marketing risk factors can be distinguished:
The wrong choice or inadequate formulation of the company's own goals;
Wrong assessment of the strategic potential of the enterprise;
Erroneous forecast of the development of the external economic environment for the enterprise in the long term, etc.
The risk in making decisions at the tactical level is primarily associated with the possibility of distortion or partial loss of meaningful information during the transition from strategic to tactical planning. If, when developing specific tactical solutions, they were not tested for compliance with the chosen enterprise strategy, then such results, even if achieved, may be outside the main strategic direction of the enterprise and thus weaken its economic stability.
The factors of indirect impact include such a factor as the insufficient quality of enterprise management. In turn, this may be due to the lack of such necessary qualities management team like cohesion, teamwork experience, people management skills, etc.
Obviously, at any level of decisions made, there may be both external and internal risk factors for a given enterprise. It can be assumed that for strategic decisions the number and role of external risk factors is much higher than for tactical or operational ones.
- Safarova Elvira Shamilovna, student
- Bashkir State Agrarian University
- BUSINESS RISKS
The article describes the concept of entrepreneurial risk, its essence and types of classifications.
- The current state of business risk insurance in the Russian Federation
- Assessment of entrepreneurial risks and criteria for choosing the effectiveness of their solution
- Efficiency of risk assessment and possible socio-economic consequences of the onset of risks
- Legal regulation of the issues of assessing the quality of provided state (municipal) services in Russia
Any business activity is subject to risks.
Risk is usually understood as a potential (possible) danger of losses that arise from the specifics of certain natural phenomena or types of human activity.
Entrepreneurial risk is the risk arising from any type of entrepreneurial activity associated with the production of products, the sale of goods and the provision of services; commodity-money and financial transactions; commerce, as well as the implementation of scientific and technical projects.
Entrepreneurial risk- the danger of a potentially possible, probable loss of resources or a shortfall in income in comparison with their expected (forecasted) value. The complexity of the classification of entrepreneurial risks lies in their diversity. There are certain categories of risks that affect all types of entrepreneurial activity, but at the same time there are specific risks that affect only companies that operate in certain areas of activity. For example, specific risks are inherent in production, trade, banking, insurance activities.
Based on the sources of occurrence, all entrepreneurial risks can be divided into internal and external.
- Internal risks arise directly in the company itself: risks generated by personnel (low qualifications, incompetence, abuse); ineffective management, miscalculations in strategic planning etc.
- External risks include risks that are beyond the control of the company, i.e. the company cannot influence them, but can only foresee: natural disasters, strikes, military actions, changes in legislation and taxation systems, nationalization, introduction of restrictions on the financial and credit market, etc.
By the time of exposure, entrepreneurial risks can be divided into short-term and permanent.
- Short-term risks exist for a certain period of time and, in principle, can be clearly defined. For example, the risk of payment for goods delivered exists until the buyer counterparty settles.
- Permanent risks continuously threaten the business of a company in a specific geographic region or business area, For example, to farms in a particular geographic region, there is always a risk of unfavorable natural conditions (frost, drought, heavy rains, etc.), which have a negative impact on the productivity of crops grown.
Entrepreneurial risk can also be categorized into production, commercial and financial.
- Production risk linked directly to economic activities an enterprise focused on obtaining maximum profit by satisfying the needs and demands of customers in accordance with the requirements of the market.
In production activities industrial enterprise the following risks can be identified:
- the risk of complete or partial stoppage of the enterprise due to interruptions in the supply of materials, components and other resources necessary to ensure production;
- the risk of sales of manufactured products (problems with sales);
- the risk of non-receipt or untimely receipt of funds for products shipped for sale;
- the risk of the buyer's refusal from the received and paid products or the risk of return;
- the risk of failure of the concluded agreements on the provision of loans, investments or credits;
- price risk associated with determining the price of the products and services sold by the enterprise, as well as the risk in determining the price of the necessary means of production, used raw materials, materials, fuel, energy, labor and capital (in the form of interest rates on loans). Significant miscalculations in pricing can have catastrophic consequences for an enterprise, lead to a significant loss of market share, an increase in inventory balances (unsold products), etc. Price risk increases significantly in the context of inflation;
- the risk of bankruptcy of both business partners (counterparties: distributors, suppliers, etc.) and the enterprise itself.
- Commercial risk associated with commercial activities. It arises in the process of selling goods and services produced or purchased by the enterprise (for example, trade risks, transport risks, risks competitive struggle etc.).
- Financial risk associated with financial activities... It arises in the implementation of financial transactions, based on the fact that the role of a commodity is capital, securities, currency (for example, credit risk, foreign exchange, interest rate, investment).
As we enter the market, we will have to deal with uncertainty and increased risk. Not to avoid risk, but to be able to assess its probability, degree and acceptable limits - this is the task of any market entity. In itself, the presence of a risk accompanying the activity market enterprise is not a disadvantage of a market economy. Moreover, the absence of risk, that is, the danger of the emergence of unpredictable and undesirable consequences for the enterprise of its own actions, as a rule, harms the economy, since it undermines its dynamism and efficiency.
Bibliography
- Zapolskikh Yu.A., Bakirova A.F. Management of the risk of bankruptcy of an enterprise in modern economic conditions In the collection: World science and modern society: topical issues economics, sociology and law. Materials of the International Scientific and Practical Conference. 2013.S. 84-87.
- Zaripova, G.M. Financial and credit support of entrepreneurship [Text] / G. M. Zaripova // Science, education and innovation: international scientific and practical conference (December 28, 2015) Part 1.- P.111-114.
- Zapolskikh Yu.A. Credit risk and the main ways to minimize it. Economy and society. 2014. No. 2-2 (11). S. 126-128.
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