The technological structure is. Technological structures: concept, characteristics, impact on economic growth. The concept of structure in the economy

E. Kablov, acad. Photo by Alexander Krivushin. The conversation is conducted by B. Rudenko

The task set by the President of Russia - to create a "smart" economy - determines the need for the advanced development of science and the dynamic implementation of its achievements. Since this task covers many aspects of our life, a special integrating indicator is required to assess the success of its implementation. Today, the concept of “technological order” is increasingly claiming its role. Boris Rudenko, correspondent of the journal Science and Life, talked about this with CEO Institute of Aviation Materials (FSUE "VIAM" State Scientific Center of the Russian Federation) by Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Evgeny KABLOV.

Academician E. N. Kablov.

Installation for the production of unique high-temperature alloys (the final product is shown in the photo on the right) for fifth-generation aircraft engines.

Entry into the sixth technological order should be ensured by those who from yesterday's young specialists will tomorrow form the elite of Russian science.

Science and life // Illustrations

Testing of new generation materials should be carried out only on the most modern equipment. In the photo: laboratory tests on a tensile testing machine.

The state is turning its face towards science, Academician E. N. Kablov believes. This attention must continue in the future.

The world economy has not yet fully recovered from the consequences of the crisis. Why did the topic of the “technological order” arise right now?

The world owes the appearance of this concept to our compatriot, scientist-economist Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratiev. He held a responsible post in the Provisional Government of Kerensky, and then headed the famous Moscow Market Institute. Studying the history of capitalism, Kondratiev came to the idea of ​​the existence of large - 50-55 years long - economic cycles, which are characterized by a certain level of development of productive forces ("technological order"). As a rule, such cycles end with crises like today's, followed by the transition of productive forces to a higher level of development.

Today the world is on the threshold of the sixth technological order. Its contours are just beginning to take shape in the developed countries of the world, primarily in the USA, Japan and China, and are characterized by a focus on the development and application of science-intensive, or, as they say now, “high technologies”. Everyone is now talking about bio- and nanotechnologies, genetic engineering, membrane and quantum technologies, photonics, micromechanics, thermonuclear energy - the synthesis of achievements in these areas should lead to the creation, for example, of a quantum computer, artificial intelligence and ultimately ensure access to a fundamentally new level in the systems of government, society, and the economy.

Forecasters believe that while maintaining the current pace of technical economic development, the sixth technological order will begin to take shape in 2010-2020, and will enter the phase of maturity in the 2040s. At the same time, in 2020-2025, a new scientific, technical and technological revolution will take place, the basis of which will be developments that synthesize the achievements of the above-mentioned basic areas. There are grounds for such predictions. In the USA, for example, the share of the productive forces of the fifth technological order is 60%, the fourth - 20%. And about 5% already fall on the sixth technological order.

- And how are things in Russia?

It is too early for us to talk about the sixth technological mode. The share of technologies of the fifth order in our country is still about 10%, and even then only in the most developed sectors: in the military-industrial complex and in the aerospace industry. More than 50% of technologies belong to the fourth level, and almost a third - even to the third. This explains the complexity of the task facing domestic science and technology: in order for our country to be able to join the ranks of states with the sixth technological mode over the next 10 years, it must, figuratively speaking, jump over the stage - through the fifth mode.

How practical is this?

With the existing forms and methods of management, organization and financing of work, such a breakthrough will not be possible. Fundamental changes are needed in these areas. And they are possible only if science has the status of an independent branch of the economy with all the ensuing consequences. The leading countries of the world have already come to this. Most of them have a strong scientific background, active system innovations that allow creating and constantly maintaining this backlog at a high level, quickly turning it into practical results.

Our possibilities in this matter do not look so optimistic. As practice has shown, ministries and departments, primarily the Ministry of Education and Science, the Ministry of Economic Development and the Ministry of Industry and Trade, are not able to provide the country with dynamic innovative development. Worse still, some of their employees continue to foist questionable solutions on us.

- Could you give examples of such decisions?

Referring to Foreign experience, the opinion is stubbornly propagated that the "center of gravity" of the development of science should move to the walls of universities. Is it possible? Not to mention the fact that the main task of universities is the training of specialists, it is difficult to imagine an educational institution capable of maintaining and effectively operating powerful experimental research stands and technological complexes.

Equally erroneous is the opinion that innovative development can only be ensured scientific organizations which are owned or financed by private corporations, the main interests and goals of which, as you know, in many cases do not coincide with the goals and interests of the state.

Large non-state corporations are certainly involved in the creation of new knowledge. But this process is strictly limited by their desire to ensure the competitiveness of their products. Moreover, corporations are very reluctant to take risks when funding scientific research. And in the presence of a monopoly position in the market, sometimes they even freeze the process of obtaining new knowledge.

- What can be the way out of this situation?

I believe that in our situation, the innovation process must be made mandatory for everyone, and especially for large corporations. For this, in particular, it is worth returning to the practice of deductions of 2% of profits to the Technological Development Fund. In this way, it is possible to create conditions for the transition of the economy to the sixth technological order. But we must not lose sight of the fact that there are a number of important tasks in the field of science and technology, the solution of which is the direct responsibility of the state. Simply, by definition, it falls within the scope of his responsibility. This means that the state should have its own scientific institutions capable of ensuring the solution of these main national tasks. innovative development. And, of course, the “main driving force” in the implementation of the innovation strategy should be the public sector of science.

Many factors speak in favor of this proposal. And above all, the fact that more than 70% of the scientific and technical potential of the country is in state ownership. Accordingly, the public sector of science is the main source of domestic innovation. Finally, only the public sector can act as a guarantor of the interests of the state aimed at ensuring security and solving the most important socio-economic problems.

Over the past twenty years, we have heard many times statements about the low efficiency of the public sector of the economy in comparison with the private sector. Admittedly, it is rather difficult to dispute these claims. Will not the same shortcomings appear when the state organizes the scientific process?

The effectiveness of the public sector of science primarily depends on the existence of a systemic regulatory framework. Unfortunately, in our country such a base is practically absent. Even the very concept of “public sector of science” is not clearly formulated, which does not allow fully revealing its functional purpose as a system that ensures the fulfillment of state tasks.

Gaps in the regulatory framework hinder the normal interaction of academic, industry and university science. Problems are laid, as they say, already at the start. I spoke about this more than once, including on the pages of your magazine. In 2005, the section "Basic research and promotion of scientific and technological progress" was eliminated in the structure of the federal budget. As a result, fundamental research today is funded under the section "National Issues". And applied - under the section "National economy". Thus, there is a situation where the connection between fundamental and applied research is already broken at the stage of creating financial plans.

To this it must be added that the Ministry of Education and Science, together with the Russian Academy of Sciences, is developing proposals only for the budget for fundamental research. The program part of investments in science (concerning applied research under state programs) is formed by the Ministry of Economic Development, the non-program part - by the Ministry of Finance, which in turn destroys the principle of a single technological chain.

Probably, it makes sense to return to the previous practice. And indicate in the budget spending on science in a single line "Science and Innovation" with subsections "Basic Research" and "Applied Research and Innovation". And of course, you need to be very careful about the selection of those who are assigned to do the work.

Look, over the past decades, we have become a "state of intermediaries." Numerous firms and firms by hook or by crook get into the chain on the way from producer to consumer with the sole purpose of biting off their piece of the financial pie. The mold of mediation has even penetrated into science. Organizations have appeared in it that, having neither personnel nor the necessary equipment, manage to receive orders (and money!) for research and development. And only a part of this money is spent on attracting scientists and specialists from real research institutes, the results of whose work the intermediary company passes off as its own.

This became possible, in particular, due to the abolition of state accreditation of scientific organizations. And, consequently, the criteria for classifying organizations as scientific. Moreover, the very concept of "scientific organization" has lost its legal content, and the executive authorities that carry out state regulation in the scientific and innovative sphere, - effective tool their monitoring.

All these and numerous similar examples speak of the need for a structural restructuring of our innovation sphere, a radical modernization of its management, financing, and organization of work. A fundamental step along this path, in my opinion, could be the creation of a department for science and technology under the President of the Russian Federation.

- And what tasks will this organization have to solve?

The main task should be the leadership of scientific and technological policy in order to ensure Russia's entry into the sixth technological mode. To do this, the management should be given the appropriate powers to form the basic principles of the scientific and technological policy of the Russian Federation; development of a unified program of fundamental and fundamentally oriented applied research and development aimed at solving the problems of modernization Russian economy linked to training; coordination and control over the execution of the program and the distribution of financial resources based on the assessment of research and scientific work of organizations. The department should also issue recommendations on the acquisition of unique technologies and equipment abroad.

Understand, we can not catch up. It is necessary to make a sharp breakthrough and, using our own developments and the achievements of our Western and Eastern colleagues, reach a new level. Information has now become very accessible, and this makes it possible to make such a leap.

Within the framework of the Department for Science and Technology, it is also advisable to create a working group to prepare proposals for the legal regulation of the public sector of science, the legislative definition of its composition, structure, forms and mechanisms of state support, the creation state register scientific organizations.

This list shows how important the personal composition of the proposed management and the decision-making mechanism are. Without going into details, I will refer to foreign experience.

Speaking at the National Academy of Sciences, US President Barack Obama put forward a series of theses designed to ensure US leadership. In his opinion, a pledge successful development are freedom and independence, including scientific research. Obama expressed confidence in the need to give the scientific community the opportunity to "intervene directly in public policy." And he confirmed this thesis in practice: the Advisory Council on Science and Technology under the President has been expanded this year. By the way, the Secretary of Energy in the Obama administration was appointed not an “effective manager”, but a scientist, Nobel Prize winner in physics in 1997, Stephen Chu.

In the United States, the role of the center of innovation is played by the National Science Foundation, which is administered by the Office of Science and Technology under the President of the United States, in France - by the National Center for Scientific Research of the Interministerial Committee for Scientific and Technological Research under the President of the French Republic.

An important element of the proposed new innovation system in Russia, in my opinion, should be research and technological development centers created on the basis of the Russian Academy of Sciences and State Research Centers (SSC) with the involvement of leading universities capable of providing scientific, methodological and educational activities.

These research and technological development centers should be organized not only in the five priority areas of technological breakthrough designated by the president, but also in such an important area as materials science and production of materials. After all, it is the materials that are the base, the foundation on which all scientific and technological achievements are built.

The innovation process is a kind of continuous conveyor of generating new knowledge and using it to produce science-intensive products, including fundamental, exploratory and applied research, technology development, creation and industrial production of science-intensive products. Including - with the involvement of venture capital and on the basis of public-private partnerships.

Modern science is a single organism with a well-established mechanism of communication both between scientific organizations and between scientific schools and individual scientists. The time has passed not only for single scientists, but also for separate scientific institutions isolated from the world scientific process. What can be said about Russian science in this context?

Unfortunately, over the past twenty years, for well-known reasons, ties between state scientific organizations of different sectors (academic, university, industry) have greatly weakened. The same can be said about the links between research and production structures. This not only "impoverishes" each of the parties, but also significantly hinders the implementation of innovative developments. Meanwhile, in domestic practice, including in recent years, there are examples of effective cooperation between academic, industry and university organizations, which led to the creation, in particular, of new materials and technologies. This form of cooperation must grow and deepen. The joint participation of representatives of different scientific organizations in common projects for a specific target is also promising. It is only important to correctly determine the parent organization of the project.

For the Academy of Sciences, the significance of interaction with industry institutes lies in the fact that they are involved in solving problems with a pronounced innovative orientation, with good engineering study provided by industry workers. Industry organizations have access to deep fundamental research academic institutions.

Interaction can be implemented on a long-term basis within structures that bring together representatives of academic, industry, production organizations, and businesses operating in certain segments of production and the market. As part of the proposed centers for research and technological development, the SSC is called upon to play an extremely important role.

For the success of research and technological development, the role of the SRC is extremely important. Established with the aim of preserving the leading world-class scientific schools, developing the country's scientific potential in the field of fundamental and applied research and training highly qualified scientific personnel, they remain one of the most important components of the public sector of science.

SRCs have a unique research, production and testing base, and it can be safely stated that they are now the most suitable for the requirements of innovative development. In cooperation with organizations of the Russian Academy of Sciences and other state academies, leading universities and the largest branch scientific organizations of the State Scientific Center create and implement a serious scientific and technological reserve in priority areas of development of science, technology and technology. This is achieved on the basis of a clear and understandable system of planning and mutual linking of a complex of fundamental, exploratory and applied research and development.

The most important feature of the SSC is the interdepartmental nature of their research and development, which meets the needs of many sectors of the military-industrial complex and the civilian sector of the economy at once.

Success on an innovative path depends not only on the organization and funding of research, but also on who conducts this research. Over the past twenty years, the most qualified scientists have been leaving Russia en masse, and the level of training of new scientific personnel has been steadily declining.

Of course, even the most generous funding and favorable working conditions will not bring the desired results if there are no people capable of putting forward “crazy” ideas, defending them against all authorities, sitting all night long in laboratories and on test benches. Therefore, the issue of training and retraining of personnel is among the most important. Without its solution, it is meaningless to talk about innovative development.

By the way, the experience of the last Winter Olympics showed that not only money decides the success of a business. Much more important are the people who do this business. They need to create conditions for work and creativity. This cannot be done without money, but without cultivating interest, passion, curiosity, nothing will come of it at all. And no amount of money will help!

In the United States, the administration of the current president, taking measures to increase the level of secondary education, gives priority to mathematics and science. An additional $5 billion is allocated this year to improve the education curriculum in these subjects and stimulate better teacher training. In Russian schools, as a result of the reform of secondary education, the number of hours of teaching natural sciences in high school has been reduced in favor of the humanities, which has already affected the preparation of students.

Moreover, the word “engineer” is deliberately washed out of our vocabulary, and technical universities train not engineers, but specialists. This has already been said and written about many times.

Undoubtedly, the methods of work of technical universities in engineering education that have developed in previous years should be restored. Two-tier system, perhaps suitable for humanitarian specialties. Perhaps a bachelor's degree can make a good economist or lawyer. But an engineer, a researcher, a scientist from a student who does not have the skills practical work, not to do. And this is a great danger for the country.

Of course, many of the current personnel problems will disappear by themselves when a respectful attitude towards the work of a scientist, engineer, and specialist is formed in society. However, for the time being, it is necessary to keep under constant control the issues of training scientific and technical personnel, to create conditions for the emergence of internationally renowned scientists who have achieved serious scientific results.

Foreign analysts - students and followers of N. D. Kondratiev - agree that the world economy today is going through the completion of another "Kondratiev" cycle. It will be remembered as a time not only of great economic upheaval, but also of cardinal social and political changes. Moreover, it gave rise to a redistribution of power and influence between regions, groups of countries and individual states.

Given these circumstances, Russia's entry into the sixth technological order is not an end in itself, but a matter of survival, economic development, ensuring the country's security and international status, and achieving a high level of well-being for our people. This, in fact, is the aim of the transformations proposed above. If we do not take into account the desire of some officials to maintain the appearance of their importance, there are no real obstacles to their implementation. All that is needed is political will and, of course, time.

CYCLES AND WAVES OF KONDRATIEV

According to Kondratiev's theory, the scientific and technological revolution develops in waves, with cycles lasting about 50 years. To date, five technological modes (waves) are known.

First wave (1785-1835) formed a technological order based on new technologies in the textile industry, the use of water energy.

Second wave (1830-1890)- the accelerated development of railway and water transport based on steam engines, the widespread introduction of steam engines in industrial production.

Third wave (1880-1940)- use in industrial production electrical energy, the development of heavy engineering and the electrical industry based on the use of rolled steel, new discoveries in the field of chemistry. The spread of radio communications, telegraph, the development of the automotive industry. Formation of large firms, cartels, syndicates and trusts. The dominance of monopolies in the markets. The beginning of the concentration of banking and financial capital.

Fourth wave (1930-1990)- the formation of a world order based on the further development of energy with the use of oil and oil products, gas, communications, new synthetic materials. The period of mass production of automobiles, tractors, aircraft, various kinds weapons, goods consumer goods. The widespread use of computers and software products. The use of atomic energy for military and peaceful purposes. Conveyor technologies are becoming the basis of mass production. Formation of transnational and international companies that make direct investments in the markets of various countries.

Fifth wave (1985-2035) relies on achievements in the field of microelectronics, computer science, biotechnology, genetic engineering, the use of new types of energy, materials, space exploration, satellite communications, etc. There is a transition from disparate firms to a single network of large and small companies connected by an electronic network based on the Internet, carrying out close interaction in the field of technology, product quality control, and innovation planning.

It is assumed that with the acceleration of scientific and technological progress, the period between changes in technological modes will be reduced.

Technological order- these are groups of technological sets connected with each other by the same type of technological chains and forming reproducible integrity.

The technical structure is characterized by:

the key factor

organizational and economic mechanism of regulation.

The concept of way of life means arrangement, the established order of organizing something.

In the modern concept, the life cycle of the technological order has 3 phases of development and is determined by a period of time of about 100 years. The first phase falls on its origin and formation in the economy of the previous technological order. The second phase is connected with the restructuring of the economy based on new technology production and corresponds to the period of dominance of the new technological order for about 50 years. The third phase falls on the withering away of an obsolete way of life and the emergence of the next.

S.Yu. Glazyev developed the theory of N. Kondratiev and identified five technological modes. However, unlike Kondratiev, Glazyev believes that the life cycle of the technological order has not two parts (up and down waves), but three phases and is determined by a period of 100 years.

Between I and II phases there is a period of monopoly. Individual organizations achieve an effective monopoly, develop, and receive high profits, because. are protected by intellectual and industrial property laws.

Directly innovations-products are considered primary. They appear in the depths of the economy of the previous technological order. In itself, the emergence of extraordinary innovations - products means the phase of the emergence of a new technological order. However, its slow development over a certain period of time is explained by the monopoly position of individual companies that were the first to apply product innovations. They are successfully developing high profit because they are protected by intellectual property laws.

Russian scientists have described the fourth and fifth technological ways (see table).

Table - Chronology and characteristics of technological modes

	technological order number
Dominance period	1770-1830	1830-1880	1880-1930	1930-1980	From 1980 1990 to 2030-2040 (?)
Technology Leaders	UK, France, Belgium	UK, France, Belgium, Germany, USA	Germany, USA, UK, France, Belgium, Switzerland, Netherlands	USA, Western European countries, USSR, Canada, Australia, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland	Japan, USA, EU
The developed countries	German states, Netherlands	Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria-Hungary, Russia	Russia, Italy, Denmark, Austria-Hungary, Canada, Japan, Spain, Sweden	Brazil, Mexico, China, Taiwan, India	Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Venezuela, China, India, Indonesia, Turkey, Eastern Europe, Canada, Australia, Taiwan, Korea, Russia and the CIS-?
The core of the technological order	Textile industry, textile machinery, iron smelting, iron processing, canal construction, water engine	Steam engine, railway construction, transport, machine building, steamship building, coal, machine tool industry, ferrous metallurgy	Electrical engineering, heavy engineering, steel production and rolling, power lines, inorganic chemistry	Automobile-, tractor-construction, non-ferrous metallurgy, production of durable goods, synthetic materials, organic chemistry, oil production and refining	Electronic industry, computing, fiber optic technology, software, telecommunications, robotics, gas production and processing, information services
key factor	Textile machines	Steam engine, machine tools	Electric motor, steel	Internal combustion engine, petrochemistry	Microelectronic components
The emerging core of a new way of life	Steam engines, mechanical engineering	Steel, power industry, heavy engineering, inorganic chemistry	Automotive, organic chemistry, oil production and processing, non-ferrous metallurgy, road construction	Radars, pipeline construction, aircraft industry, gas production and processing	Biotechnology, space technology, fine chemistry
Advantages of the technological order in comparison with the previous one	Mechanization and concentration of production in factories	Growth of scale and concentration of production based on the use of a steam engine	Increasing the flexibility of production based on the use of an electric motor, standardization of production, urbanization	Mass and serial production	Individualization of production and consumption, increasing the flexibility of production, overcoming environmental restrictions on energy and material consumption based on automated control systems, de-urbanization based on telecommunication technologies

Technologically developed countries have moved from the fourth to the fifth technological order, embarking on the path of deindustrialization of production. At the same time, for the products of the fourth technological mode, the models being produced are being modified, which is sufficient to ensure solvent demand in their countries to retain market niches abroad.

Fourth technological order(fourth wave) was formed on the basis of the development of energy using oil, gas, communications, new synthetic materials. This is the era of mass production of cars, tractors and agricultural machinery, aircraft, and various types of weapons. At this time, a computer appeared and software products for them began to be created. Atomic energy was used for peaceful and military purposes. Organized mass production based on conveyor technology.

Fifth wave relies on advances in microeconomics, informatics, satellite communications, and genetic engineering. The globalization of the economy is observed, which is facilitated by the worldwide information network.

The nucleus of a new sixth technological order, including biotechnology, space technology, fine chemistry, artificial intelligence systems, global information networks, the formation of network business communities, etc. The origin of the 6th order dates back to the beginning of the 90s of the XX century within the framework of the 5th technological order.

In the domestic economy, for a number of objective reasons the potential of the third and fourth technological modes has not yet been fully used. At the same time, science-intensive industries of the fifth technological order were created.

The dominance of the technological order over a long period of time is influenced by governmental support new technologies combined with innovative activities organizations. Process innovations improve product quality, help reduce production costs and ensure sustainable consumer demand in the goods market.

Thus, the main conclusion following from the study of the impact of innovation on the level of economic development is the conclusion about the uneven undulating innovation development. This conclusion is taken into account when developing and choosing innovative strategies. Previously, forecasts used a trend approach based on extrapolation, which assumed the inertia of economic systems. Recognition of the cyclic nature of innovative development made it possible to explain its spasmodicity.

In the modern concept of the theory of innovation, it is customary to single out such concepts as product life cycle and production technology life cycle.

The product life cycle consists of four phases.

1. In the first phase, research and development is carried out to create an innovation-product. The phase ends with the transfer of the processed technical documentation to production units industrial organizations.

2. In the second phase, the technological development of large-scale production of a new product takes place, accompanied by a decrease in cost and an increase in profits.

Both the first and, in particular, the second phase are associated with significant risk investments, which are allocated on a repayable basis. The subsequent increase in the scale of production is accompanied by a decrease in costs and an increase in profits. This makes it possible to recoup investments in the first and second phases of the product life cycle.

3. A feature of the third phase is the stabilization of production volumes.

4. In the fourth phase, there is a gradual decrease in production and sales volumes.

The life cycle of production technology also consists of 4 phases:

1. The emergence of innovation-processes by conducting a wide range of R&D of a technological profile.

2. Development of innovation-processes at the facility.

3. Distribution and replication of new technology with repeated repetition at other sites.

4. Implementation of innovation-processes in stable, constantly functioning elements of objects (routinization).

The fusion of applied science and technological audit, modern competence centers and Soviet experience will make it possible to shift industrial policy one and a half cycles forward. About what is missing for a breakthrough, "Military-Industrial Courier" was told Executive Director"Finval engineering" Alexey Petrov and commercial director of the company Alexey Ivanin.

The 90s severely battered the domestic instrument and machine tool industry, and other advanced industries. The civil aviation industry ekes out a miserable existence.

But the engineering industry of the military-industrial complex remains the backbone of the Russian economy. Its competitiveness, especially its growth rates, are due exclusively to high-tech and knowledge-intensive sectors.

- The corporation was given the task of setting up the production of a large-scale facility, for example, resuming the production of the Tu-160. The first actions of her leadership?

– When it comes to setting up a production facility for a new product, the corporation's leaders are primarily faced with the task of competently organizing pre-project work, conducting technological preparation, and choosing a head production. It is clear that today none of the existing enterprises can produce such an aircraft. It is necessary to establish large-scale cooperation between factories. Considerable time has passed since the release of the last such machine, much has changed - enterprises participating in the production chain have closed or ended up abroad. Some of the technologies are most likely outdated, others are lost. First: you need to create a digital - 3D model of the product. A set of scanned drawings in a computer - last century. We are talking specifically about a three-dimensional digital model in the collection. So that you can see the requirements for any of the parts and the manufacturing technology of each. Second: to organize the study of the implementation of the task.

The creation of such a production is a long process, it can take several years. An important issue is the choice of technology, the selection of equipment, and its manufacture. It often happens that standard machines do not fit, you need to order them, develop and manufacture tooling, which in itself is a long and expensive process. This will be followed by the supply of equipment, commissioning, testing of technology on a specific product and after that delivery in accordance with all the parameters that were previously set. In addition, it is necessary to carefully plan industrial cooperation.

Where is your place in this chain?

– When the production program appears, then our work begins. It is impossible to develop technology for unknown purposes and to what extent. When we solve a problem, we necessarily take into account the possibilities of cooperation between enterprises, the presence of competence centers in the holding or plans for their creation. In accordance with this, we develop a production technology, select equipment, tooling and tools, and develop requirements for personnel.

To carry out such a large-scale project, you need a structure that can guarantee the execution of the contract, when the contractor takes care of everything: technological and construction design, selection and purchase of equipment, tooling and tools, organization of the construction of the facility and control over its progress, installation and commissioning of equipment, etc. e. Any textbook on project management describes the advantages of EPCM contracts (EPCM from English engineering - engineering, procurement - supply, construction - construction, management - management): cost reduction, predictability of achieving the desired result, flexibility in the distribution of risks and responsibilities, individual approach to the customer.

- This is in the textbook, but how in our reality?

– The system is widely developed in the West and a little in our country – in industries that are largely integrated into the world: in energy and oil and gas production.

As for the enterprises of the defense complex and engineering in general, the problem is that in most cases the customer simply does not have the opportunity to conclude such a contract, since he works in financial and managerial regulations that do not allow him to fully invest in the project. Hence the problems. We also cannot be responsible for the entire project. The customer has an organization that is building the facility, but is not responsible for the supply of equipment, for training personnel and building an information corporate system.

- It turns out that there is no customer in the state?

- Not in the state, but in engineering. It exists in the state. When it comes to building a nuclear power plant, no one suggests building it in parts. The nuclear power plant is delivered on a turnkey basis.

- But nuclear power plants are also mechanical engineering ...

“You can swell one hundred billion, make the plant ideal, but it will be loaded by three percent, because it is included in cooperation with enterprises that have not been modernized in any way”

- This is an energy facility, from which an order for turbines and other equipment comes, that is, mechanical engineering acts as a supplier. But project management leads energy company or its general contractor, who is responsible for ensuring that, according to the budget and deadlines, the facility is created and produces the required number of megawatts. Here the EPCM contract scheme works great, it needs to be extended to mechanical engineering. And this has been talked about for a long time.

The state should act as a competent customer. Not to find out from the heads of companies that carry out defense orders how much money is invested in their factories, but to ask how much it will cost to produce a tank. An engineering company will develop a production technology, select equipment and give its approximate cost. We add to it the costs of designing, modernizing production, scheduled repairs, and other related costs, then we divide the amount received by the number of orders and get the price of one. In fact, this is not the same as the cost of a tank at a given enterprise.

The challenge is to ensure the life cycle of the product. In the life cycle of a product, production is just a part - the most important, but no more. And design development, R&D, modernization of operated products and further disposal are financed at best in parts.

Initially, engineers develop the design of the product, then an engineering company or a technological institute starts working, which develop technical and technological solutions for future production. Based on this information, design estimates are formed. After that, the data is provided to the construction company. We have it the other way around now. Funds are allocated for the construction part. This is the main difference. It is impossible to start building a plant until an engineering company or a technological institute creates a project, receives money for it, and passes the state examination together with the customer.

But organizational and technological design, playing essential role, at this stage is not given sufficient attention. What is the result? A magnificent building was built, the most modern equipment was purchased, but there was not enough money and attention for a thorough organizational and technological design.

Why is it important? Any enterprise is tied to the territory where it is located. For example, if there are enough skilled workers in the region, in order to minimize the cost of purchasing equipment, we can make a project with the maximum possible use of universal machines. But there may be a completely different picture, and then you have to use unmanned technologies, because there is simply no one to supply universal equipment.

These and many other issues must be taken into account at the stage of design work or, in modern terms, when conducting a technological audit of the project.

– How to achieve this?

- The most important thing is to include pre-project procedures in the regulations. This will create a quality plant. Here we can recall the Soviet experience - in the then practice of the concept of "technological audit" was not, but operated on another - "technological design", which was an obligatory phase for any industrial enterprise. And this was financed in a regulated manner based on the volume of total capital investments in the project - exactly what is not there now.

Is it possible to return to this?

- You need to come back! If we are talking about the modernization of production, then it must necessarily be tied to the product that is supposed to be released. Otherwise, we can spend a lot of money, buy good machines and still get a null result. Because it may turn out: the required product cannot be made on these machines or it is required to develop expensive equipment, and many circumstances not previously taken into account may also open up. As a result, either the product will not be produced at all, or its cost will become prohibitive. Therefore, we are constantly talking about the need for a clear regulation for carrying out work on technological audit and design. And then a high-quality project will be made with a normal feasibility study, which takes into account every step and all the costs of equipment, personnel, equipment, and so on.

We emphasize once again: we need a systemic order from society and the state. The country is participating in global competition, the world is moving from the fifth technological order, from paperless technology to the sixth - to deserted technology. Accordingly, those who do this first will be the undisputed leaders. And today more than half of our economy is still in the fourth dimension.

- And enterprises are run by people who come from the paradigm of the fourth order ...

- Exactly. We need to shift industrial policy one and a half cycles forward.

Who in the country can do this?

- Previously, the program of industrial policy was and was implemented in each sectoral ministry. Now there is only the Ministry of Industry and Trade, which cannot cover everything, and a certain vacuum appears. So it's up to business. Understanding is required from every corporation: it does not manage thousands of factories, but the production of specific products. It is from this that one should proceed, because the market should be offered a competitive product, and not information about how many factories and machine tools a manufacturer has.

- To this he can answer that he makes tanks that the Ministry of Defense requires, that’s why the demand ...

- So the fact of the matter is that they are not responsible for the tank, but for factories that do not understand what and why they produce. And at arbitrary cost.

But this is one side. Before talking about modernization at any enterprise, one must first understand what product it is included in the production chain, in the interests of which product it is worth introducing innovations and how this will affect the enterprises included in the cooperation. You can swell one hundred billion, make the plant ideally modern, but it will be loaded by three percent, because it is included in cooperation with enterprises that have not been modernized in any way ...

Investments must be considered in a complex, so we are now talking about what corporate leaders need. There are many problems at the factories, but at the corporate level there are more of them precisely because there are many enterprises, they are different, their leaders hold different views and have different life experiences, the teams are well-established and also differ significantly in age and qualifications. And they need to be managed in the same way. And we propose to do this on the basis of the thesis that it is necessary to manage the production of a product, and not a specific plant. There is a director there, let him manage it.

The whole question is in the ability to correctly set tasks, ask the right questions to enterprises that are part of the corporation, and receive the right answers in a single format. And we are talking about technology audit again. What's the point if the audit at a hundred factories of one corporation is carried out by different organizations according to their own methods and each provides the results in its own form? On such a shaky basis, it is basically impossible to draw any conclusions, because there is no link to the final result.

Do you need a regulation?

- Exactly. Which clearly states: what is a technology audit, who has the right to perform it. And every auditor must be certified. Today, technological design can be carried out by anyone, for this even licenses are not needed and technical education is not necessary.

By the way, we can create any kind of regulatory documents, but the money for technological design or technological audit must be included in the budgets of corporations. For engineering, it is necessary to allocate money specifically to enterprises so that they can order engineering services on the side.

This will serve as the best incentive for the development of engineering companies. Now there is no corresponding line in the budget, and even if the head of the corporation wants to order such a service, he does not have the opportunity.

“And he starts looking for reserves?”

- He, for example, asks to carry out the design for free, including the cost of services, say, in the equipment that will be purchased as a result of the project. This distorts the market, so you can not do it. In construction, there are clear rules for paying for design work, and exactly the same rules should be adopted when forming the cost of pre-design work. You need a clear link to the estimated cost of the object, then you will understand why such money is requested.

So far, our enterprises are not ready to pay for this - they simply do not understand what they will really get. In addition, many managers do not know what engineering is, or think that it is only about the supply of equipment, and they believe that the Finval company is engaged only in this.

– How to manage modernization?

– Highlight: when a corporation is requested by an enterprise for financial resources a concept of upcoming changes should be drawn up. That is, it is necessary to convey to the corporation what kind of transformations are necessary, how they are planned to be carried out and for what. Modernization should begin primarily with the product, that is, with what the company plans to produce and in what volume. We have a successful track record of creating and defending such concepts.

Is this purely a financial document?

– Justification of investments cannot be made only on the basis of financial calculations. The concept should be based on technological development. It should go from the product, show that there is a clear and long-term demand in the market - only if such information is available, the document will be of interest to the investor.

– Creation of competence centers is now in vogue. In your opinion, do they really contribute to the modernization of the machine-building complex?

– We passionately advocate the creation of centers of excellence. The modern economy implies ensuring competition through the effective interaction of such centers with serial enterprises. But there are also reservations.

- For example, there is a cluster of enterprises that produce approximately the same products and are part of the same structure. The corporation receives a request for funding from them, and it turns out that they need to buy, say, one hundred identical machines, each costing two hundred million rubles. Here the question arises: is it really necessary to give each plant the requested funding, or is it worth creating a single center where there will be not one hundred, but ten such machines, and it will provide all enterprises with products of a specific range?

- The idea is sound.

– Ideally, such a center also works effectively with orders, fulfills them efficiently and on time, and most importantly, it has up-to-date technological expertise, that is, it monitors market trends and replaces outdated technological processes with new ones in time. For example, if a competence center is created in the field foundry then he must be an expert in that field. It is necessary to connect a scientific base to such a center of competence, the activities of which are aimed at advanced research and development that can outperform competitors. But it is in narrow specialization, as mentioned above, in casting. This gives groundwork for export. Moreover, it is important to develop both military and peaceful topics. If this is casting, the enterprise can produce both guns and frying pans. You just need to add applied work in the field of science and you can enter world markets.

Are you talking about the realities of our day?

- It should be so, but today there is no single clear understanding in state structures that there is a center of competence. They still believe that this is just a set of machines that perform standard operations, standard products, and for the enterprise this is another opportunity to receive money from the state.

But the problem is that technologies are changing rapidly, and we advocate that competence centers not only have a set of machines, but also applied science without fail.

We advocate that competence centers have such a composition of equipment and scientific activity, which will truly turn our country into a world leader in manufacturing. When implementing modern technologies in competence centers we will create self-sustaining and innovative products. Yes, on initial stage it will be products for our factories, and in the future, the participation of competence centers in international exhibitions will raise us to a completely new level - a world leader in the field of production. Competence centers need to take part in the leading specialized exhibitions as an individual manufacturer, where we can demonstrate our advanced developments and scientific base.

All activities should be directed to the future. Now the ratio of production, for example, is 90 percent - military products, 10 percent - civilian. But over time, this proportion, for obvious reasons, shifts towards the civilian one. The number of civilian orders will increase, including by reducing the cost of production in this particular industry. Competence centers should be leaders not only within the corporation, but across Russia. We will be able to master new types of products, as well as fulfill export orders. We must have the best enterprises in the industry, with impeccable quality of products that meet world standards. And we must be one step ahead of the competition.

In the meantime, everything is turning into “let's save money, we won’t buy machines for everyone, we’ll take ten times less, put it in one place.” This is good, but clearly not enough. The lack of science and incentives for development will lead to the fact that in a couple of years a "garage with nuts" will appear instead of a center of competence. Meanwhile, the corporation that built the center, in addition to saving on equipment, will also want to recoup the costs. And they can only be beaten off in the foreign market, where the center will pick up third-party orders.

- Is it bad to recoup the costs?

- It may happen that the factories of the corporation, all at once, needed some kind of unfortunate nut. And in the center there is a millionth order, because of one nut they will not readjust the machines there and will be right in their own way. What is the result? The problems of factories have worsened - before they had their own equipment, they made this nut if necessary, now there is no such possibility. But factories do not produce nuts, but a certain product. And it may turn out that it will not be finally handed over because of one unfortunate nut. And from here already there is a problem with the delivery of the state defense order. At 99.99 percent, everything is ready, but the nut is missing. And why? Because they said - there is nothing to do at the factory for this machine, the nut is too expensive. Because they consider its cost compared to mass production. But it must be considered in comparison with the cost price in the general product and losses due to the fact that the delivery is delayed for months, as they are waiting for the nut.

- Who decides this issue?

– Managers who make decisions on the creation of competence centers. To avoid such absurd situations, among them must be present technical specialists which these risks are able to foresee and voice. Such decisions cannot be made only on the basis of economic expediency and on the basis of financial calculations.

- In this case, does the country have a regulation for the creation of centers of competence?

- Not. Each corporation independently determines what exactly it means by a competence center and what tasks it intends to solve with its help.

– Are there such centers that fully correspond to their name?

- There is. For example, in our company there is a Center for Engineering Technologies. There, not only the equipment that we supply is presented, but also processing technologies are being developed, machine operators and technologists are being trained. Having experience and the necessary expertise, we can reasonably say on which equipment it is better to produce a product and how to do it optimally. Not cheap or expensive, but only in this way - optimally. The price matters, but the optimum is made up of different things: serialization, risks, the possibility of expanding production, established cooperation, etc. It is one thing to spank nuts in millions of copies, and quite another - a million different nuts. But it is impossible to consider all goals primary.

- What do you think is the way out?

Competence centers need to be created. They will contribute to building technological competencies, the emergence of new breakthrough technologies, and reducing production costs. This, in turn, will increase its competitiveness. It is necessary to realize that in a few years the rearmament of the army and navy of the Russian Federation will be completed and there will be an urgent need for the production of competitive civilian products. Today we need to think about the production of civilian and dual-use products so that the funds spent on modernization military-industrial complex enterprises, worked for the development of the entire Russian economy, increasing the export of high-tech products. By the way, the creation of competence centers is not necessarily the prerogative of state structures. For example, in Germany, in the machine tool industry, which brings in billions of dollars in income and provides the country with a leading position in the world market, 99.5 percent of engineering and manufacturing companies are representatives of small and medium-sized businesses - they play the role of centers of competence there and very successfully.

- And we have?

- It's a bit more complicated for us. The creation of such centers requires large financial costs and the involvement of serious specialists. Few small and medium enterprises are ready for such investments. And the market for engineering services in our mechanical engineering has not yet formed. As for state-owned enterprises, now many corporations are beginning to be interested in creating centers of excellence, but when organizing them, it is necessary to clearly formulate goals. Technology development should be handled by technologists, not lawyers or financiers. These centers will not always be able to be self-sustaining, but one should clearly understand what problems they will help solve and what kind of results corporate management wants to get from their creation. And besides, it is necessary to understand that the design of such a center is not done instantly. This may take from three months to six months, depending on the volume. production program and complexity of cooperation. Because competently designing cooperation is not at all the same as building a building and supplying ten machines. It is necessary to clearly calculate how to ensure that each of the corporation's plants receives what it needs at a particular moment, and the end customer receives finished products on time with the required quality. We have successful experience in designing such centers.

It should be noted that in the West tenders are announced under ready product, we have a different situation - tenders are held for the supply of equipment. Competence centers have equipment, a scientific base, and relevant competencies. Together, having all these parameters, our competence centers will be able to participate in global tenders for the supply of specific products.

- Who else can solve such problems except you?

- Probably, someone can, if puzzled. But for the most part, no one has done it yet. Too complicated and unpredictable. The main task of corporations is the harmonization of interaction with factories, the construction of a coherent management. In dialogue with us, this task is solved. We can suggest what to pay attention to, help formulate the requirements. Corporate leaders should have a systematic approach to the development of their enterprises. Cooperation should be considered from the point of view of the production of the final product - and this is the most difficult.

Third technological order (1880–1930)

The main feature is the widespread use of electric motors and the rapid development of electrical engineering. At the same time there is a specialization of steam engines. Consumption becomes dominant alternating current, the construction of power plants began. Coal becomes the most important energy carrier during the period of domination of this way of life. At the same time, oil began to gain positions in the energy market, although it is worth noting that it became the leading energy carrier only at the fourth TU.

The chemical industry made great strides during this period. Of the many chemical and technological innovations, the following have gained importance: the ammonia process for obtaining soda, the production of sulfuric acid by the contact method, and electrochemical technology.

Fourth technological order (1930–1970)

By the 1940s technology, which is the basis of the third TR, has reached the limits of its development and improvement. Then the formation of the fourth TU began, which laid down new directions in the development of technology. The necessary material and technical base had already been formed by this time. For example, the following were created and mastered:

• road infrastructure;
• telephone communication networks;
• new technologies and infrastructure for oil production;
• technological processes in non-ferrous metallurgy.

During the period of the third TU, an internal combustion engine was introduced, which became one of the basic innovations of the fourth TU. At the same time, the formation of the automotive industry and the development of the first samples of caterpillar transport and special equipment, which formed the core of the fourth technical specification, took place. The industries that formed the core of the fourth TU include the chemical industry (primarily organic chemistry), the automotive industry, and the production of motorized weapons. This stage is characterized by a new machine base, comprehensive mechanization of production, automation of many basic technological processes, the widespread use of skilled labor, the growth of specialization of production.

During the life cycle of the fourth TU, the outstripping development of the electric power industry continued. Oil becomes the leading energy source. Petroleum products are used as the main fuel for almost all types of transport - diesel locomotives, cars, airplanes, helicopters, rockets. Oil has also become an essential raw material for the chemical industry. With the expansion of the fourth TU, a global telecommunications system is being created based on telephone and radio communications. There has been a transition of the population to a new type of consumption, characterized by mass consumption of durable goods, synthetic goods.

Fifth technological order (1970–2010)

By the 1970s in developed countries, the fourth TR has reached the limits of its expansion. Since that time, the fifth TU begins to form, which now dominates in most developed countries. This mode can be defined as the mode of information and communication technologies. Microelectronics and software are key factors. Among the most important industries, the production of automation and telecommunications equipment should be singled out.

As already noted, most of the innovations of the new mode are formed in the phase of dominance of the previous mode. This is especially well demonstrated in this case. According to experts, about 80% of the main innovations of the fifth TU were introduced before 1984. And the earliest introduction dates back to 1947 - the period of the creation of the transistor. The first EMW appeared in 1949, the first operating system - in 1954, the silicon transistor - in 1954. These inventions served as the foundation for the creation of the fifth TU. Simultaneously with the development of the semiconductor industry, there was rapid progress in the field of software - by the end of the 1950s. a family of first high-level programming languages ​​appeared.

However, the spread of the new fifth TS was hindered by the underdevelopment of the leading industries, the formation of which, in turn, ran into limited demand, since new technologies were not yet sufficiently effective and were not accepted by existing institutions. The introduction of the microprocessor in 1971 was a turning point in the formation of the fifth technical specification and opened up new opportunities for rapid progress in all areas.

The invention of the microcomputer and the rapid advances in software that came with it made information technology convenient, cheap, and accessible to both industrial and non-industrial consumption. The driving branches of the information order have entered a phase of maturity.

The beginning of the fifth TR is associated with the development of new means of communication, digital networks, computer programs and genetic engineering. The fifth TU actively generates the creation and continuous improvement of both new machines and equipment (computers, numerical control (CNC), robots, machining centers, various kinds of automatic machines), and information systems(databases, local and integrated computing systems, information languages ​​and information processing software). Among the leading industries of the fifth TU in the manufacturing industry, flexible automated production (FAP) is of great importance. Flexible Automation industrial production dramatically expands the variety of products. In addition, the fifth TU is characterized by the deurbanization of the population and the development of a new information and transport infrastructure associated with it. Free access of each person to global information networks, the development of global mass information systems, air transport radically change human ideas about time and space. This, in turn, affects the structure of needs and motivation of people's behavior.

During the life cycle of the fifth TR, the role of natural gas and NIE.

Sixth technological mode (2010–present)

Since the early 2000s in the bowels of the fifth TU, elements of the sixth TU began to appear more and more noticeably. Its key areas include biotechnology, artificial intelligence systems, CALS -technologies, global information networks and integrated high-speed transport systems, computer education, formation of network business communities. These are the industries that are currently developing in the leading countries at a particularly rapid pace (sometimes from 20 to 100% per year).

Technological modes (TS), the economics of nanotechnology and technological roadmaps for nanoproducts (fibers, textiles, clothing) until 2015 and beyond

We invite authors to publish their materials on our website (NNN editors)

Chapter from a book

Introduction

Why three problems are presented in one chapter and in a certain sequence: technological modes, economics of nanotechnologies and technological roadmaps of nanoproducts(fibers, textiles, clothing)?

According to the author, which coincides with the point of view of leading scientists in the field of natural and technical sciences and, most importantly, based on the results of practice, the level of technology, their implementation, the need for them have determined and continue to determine the development of civilization over several millennia. And the economy (well, where without it) is secondary, a derivative of technologies that determine technological structures, the level of productive forces and production relations, and, consequently, the economy. Therefore, we will first consider the role of technological modes in the development of civilizations, then, against this background, the economics of nanotechnologies in a broad sense and the economics of nanotechnologies of fibers, textiles and textile products. And, finally, a roadmap for the production of nanofibers, nanotextiles and products from it, as a derivative of the technological structures of the present and future and the economy of textile nanotechnologies.

Clothing of the future from nanotextiles.
Photo from veritas.blogshare.ru

Technological and other modes of the past, present and future

The chapter and the book as a whole are being written at a time when the world has not yet got out of the global economic crisis, which the most eminent world-famous economists, including Nobel laureates, could not predict. Not only did they not predict, but they also do not give sensible recommendations on how to get out of this crisis. Where can the leaders of large and small, developed and developing states compete in this. The fact is that they are all economists, lawyers, Chekists - people with a liberal arts education, who come to power and recruit people who are close in the "blood type" mentality to their teams, think linearly, believing that the engine, locomotive, engine of progress is finance, money, the technology of their increment by any means, including global speculation. Production material assets, the technological level of production (in the broad sense), fundamentally new, revolutionary technologies and products produced by them are put into the background. Such a monetarist, very fashionable among economists and politicians view of the development of the world economy, in which, in fact, new revolutionary technologies are the main driving force, does not allow predicting inevitable crises and finding effective ways out of them.

A different view on the development of the world economy, on the causes of emerging and overcoming crises, is held by scientists organically associated with the creation and implementation of new technologies (physicists, chemists, mathematicians, materials scientists, engineers, technologists, designers).

The views of these scholars G.G.Malinetsky, S.Yu.Glazyev, D.S.Lvov), which the author shares, are based on the works of the Soviet scientist N.D. Kondratiev, who, back in the 20s of the last century, put forward the theory of large cycles of development of the world economy, which in turn determine the inevitability, cyclicality of crises and not only economic ones. The economic, modern, recent global crisis is usually explained by too much financial speculation, which led to a disproportionate flow of capital into the financial sector and outflow from the real productive sector of the economy. The result was the curtailment of production (not only in our country, in all developed countries), the reduction of jobs, the income of hired workers and the loss of economic stability. There is an absolute, but not complete, truth about the unjustified tilt towards the financial sector. But this explanation of the crisis underestimates the role of technology, the underutilization of scientific and technological progress, the delay in commercialization and advancement in the real sector of the economy and the market for new products, innovative technologies, which was the result of business inertia in transferring investments to the development in the real sector of the economy of highly productive breakthrough innovations of competitive products new technological order, now the 6th.

What are technological structures? Technological structures are a complex of mastered revolutionary technologies, innovations, inventions that underlie a quantitative and qualitative leap in the development of the productive forces of society.

The cause of all global economic crises lies in the sphere of changing the technological paradigm of development. Economic crises occur at a time when society, business, and politicians are late in realizing the need to abandon (at first partially, and then almost completely) the existing one and the need to turn society towards mastering a new technological order.

The crisis is a retribution for inertia in changing the technological and, as a result, economic paradigm.

The latest economic crisis is global, because the world is globalized and integrated. To get out of the crisis, first of all, it is necessary to realize their cyclicity, inevitability and to single out as a limiting stage and a factor in the development of breakthrough, revolutionary technologies.

In connection with such a dominant role of technologies (innovations), they are classified to revolutionary and evolutionary

• revolutionary (breakthrough), replacing pioneering technologies, aimed at creating fundamentally new products, goods, services or other material benefits;
• evolutionary, improving (ongoing) innovations (technologies) aimed at improving already mastered products, goods, services, etc.

Evolutionary innovations and technologies do not completely disappear during the transition to a new technological order, but cease to play a dominant role, giving way to revolutionary ones.

We can observe the coexistence of the revolutionary innovations of the past with the revolutionary innovations of the present. We have not yet given up on any of the technological revolutions of the distant past - the wheel, later printing, that exist today along with aviation and the Internet.

The theory of N.D.Kondratiev is based on the cyclical nature of socio-economic development in short, medium and long wave cycles.

According to the theory of N.D. Kondratiev, a crisis occurs when the troughs of short, medium and long waves coincide, which occur during the existence of our civilization every 40–60 years and fall on the phase of a change in technological patterns.

ND Kondratiev predicted the crisis of the 30s of the last century. the real crisis also follows from the theory of N.D. Kondratiev; we can expect another crisis in the 40-60s of this century. Such a cyclical development and crises adequate to it will apparently occur until the essence of the development of civilization changes and there is a transition to a new transhumanistic civilization, where the biological essence of man changes.

In the meantime, up to the present time, mankind in its development has consistently mastered technological structures, in each of which there have been revolutionary leaps in labor productivity and quality of life in all areas compared to previous technological structures.

Earth civilization in its development has gone through a number of pre-industrial and at least 6 industrial technological modes and now developed countries are in the 5th technological mode and are intensively preparing for the transition to the 6th technological mode, which will provide them with a way out of the economic crisis. Those countries that are late with the transition to the 6th technological order will be stuck in economic crisis and stagnation. The situation in Russia is very difficult, since we did not move from the 4th technological order to the 5th, in connection with the deindustrialization of the industrial potential of the USSR, i.e. did not move into the 5th post-industrial order and are forced, if we succeed, to jump immediately into the 6th technological order. The task is extremely difficult, if not almost impossible, especially in the absence of an industrial policy of the country's leadership. The well-known thesis of K. Marx, on which more than one generation of Soviet people was brought up, that the productive forces and production relations determine the socio-economic system, can be significantly corrected in the light of the theory of N. D. Kondratiev:

technological structures, the level of technology determine the productive forces and production relations, and between them there are direct and reverse links.

Large Periodic Cycles

Pre-industrial ways were based on the muscular, manual, horse energy of humans and animals. All the inventions of that time that have come down to our time concerned the strengthening of the muscular strength of man and animals (screw, lever, wheel, gearbox, potter's wheel, furs in the forge, mechanical spinning wheel, hand loom).

The beginning of the industrial periods of technological structures falls on the end of the 18th - beginning of the 19th centuries.

First technological order characterized by the use of water energy in the textile industry, water mills, drives of various mechanisms.

The second technological order. The beginning of the 19th - the end of the 19th century - using the energy of steam and coal: a steam engine, a steam engine, a steam locomotive, steamships, steam drives for spinning and weaving machines, steam mills, a steam hammer. There is a gradual liberation of a person from a heavy manual labor. A person has more free time.

Third technological order. Late 19th - early 20th century. The use of electrical energy, heavy engineering, electrical and radio engineering industry, radio communications, telegraph, household appliances. Improving the quality of life.

Fourth technological order. Beginning of XX - end of XX century. Use of hydrocarbon energy. Widespread use of internal combustion engines, electric motors, cars, tractors, aircraft, synthetic polymer materials, the beginning of nuclear energy.

Fifth technological order. The end of the XX - the beginning of the XXI century. Electronics and microelectronics, nuclear power, information technology, genetic engineering, the beginning of nano- and biotechnology, space exploration, satellite communications, video and audio equipment, the Internet, cell phones. Globalization with the rapid movement of products, services, people, capital, ideas.

Sixth technological order. Beginning of the 21st - the middle of the 21st century. It overlaps the 5th technological order, it is called post-industrial. Nano- and biotechnologies, nanoenergy, molecular, cellular and nuclear technologies, nanobiotechnologies, biomimetics, nanobionics, nanotronics and other nanoscale productions; new medicine, household appliances, modes of transport and communications, the use of stem cells, engineering of living tissues and organs, reconstructive surgery and medicine, a significant increase in the life expectancy of humans and animals.

It should be noted important characteristic changes in technological structures: the discovery, invention of all innovations begins much earlier than their mass development. Those. their origin occurs in one technological order, and mass use in the next. In other words, there is inertia of the business and political thinking of business and the political elite. Capital is moving into new technological segments of the economy where management is ready to move.

Countries, societies that quickly feel the innovations of the new technological order quickly enter it and become leaders (England - the 2nd technological order, USA, Japan, Korea - the 4th technological order, USA, China, India - the 5th technological order).

Some scientists are already starting to talk about the imminent (in the 21st century) offensive and 7th technological order, for which the center will be a person, as the main object of technology.

Everything that was created in the previous technological order does not disappear in the next one, remaining non-dominant. If business and political leadership do not feel changes in the leading positions of new technologies characteristic of the new technological paradigm and continue to invest in old industries, then a crisis arises or continues. capital, investment, management do not keep pace with innovation. A typical example is the Russian auto industry, in which there are constant investments without innovation. As a result, products remain uncompetitive. Consequently, innovations, revolutionary technologies must be supported in time by capital at all stages: new ideas, new technologies, new products with high added value, promotion of products to the market, making a profit, investing in new ideas, etc. All this can be realized only with healthy (without crime) competition in all areas of human activity (politics, business, science, art, culture, etc.).

Figure 1. in the form of cycles shows the content of the 4th and 5th technological modes and the beginning of the emergence of the 6th mode, in which nano-, bio- and information technologies will shape, change the economy, social and cultural spheres. Indirectly with the change of technological structures, the cycles of development of science are changing.

The following tables show the change in technological structures, cycles of science development, the sequence of geopolitical crises, extremes of scientific activity and geo-economic cycles.

Figure 1. The natural cycle of development of macrotechnologies according to N.D. Kondratiev

Table. Cycles of science development

years	Cycles	Key principles
	mechanistic natural science	Rationalism. Secularization of science. Scientific and technological revolution
	Evolutionism	Law of energy conservation. The second law of thermodynamics. Origin of Species
	Relativism. Quantum mechanics	Principles of quantum mechanics and the theory of relativity. The structure of DNA. The structure of matter
	computer revolution	Solid state physics. Genetic Engineering. Molecular biology. Universal evolutionism
	Nonlinear Science. Physics of quantum vacuum	Protostructures of reality. Universal cosmological field. quantum biology

Table. Technological structures

Technological modes (TU)	years	Key Factors	Technological core
		Textile machines	Textiles, iron smelting; iron processing, water engine, rope
		steam engine	Railways, steamships; coal and machine-tool industry, ferrous metallurgy
		Electric motor, steel industry	Electrical engineering, heavy engineering, steel industry, inorganic chemistry, power lines
		Internal combustion engine, petrochemistry	Automotive, aircraft, rocket, non-ferrous metallurgy, synthetic materials, organic chemistry, oil production and refining
		Microelectronics, gasification	Electronics industry, computers, optical industry, aerospace, telecommunications, robotics, gas industry, software, information services
		Quantum vacuum technologies	Nano-, bio-, information technologies. Purpose: medicine, ecology, improving the quality of life

Table. Technological cycles and geopolitical crises

Table. Extremes of scientific activity and geo-economic cycles

years	Cycles	Scientific discoveries
1	2	3
	formation of I TU	1755 - spinning machine (White), 1766 - discovery of hydrogen (G. Cavendish), 1774 - discovery of oxygen (J. Priestley), 1784 - steam engine (J. Watt), 1784 - discovery of Coulomb's law (O. Coulomb)
	bifurcation between TR I and TR II	1824 - discovery of the second principle of thermodynamics (S. Carnot), 1824 - theory of electrodynamic phenomena (A. Ampère), 1831 - discovery of electromagnetic induction (M. Faraday), 1835 - telegraph (S. Morse) , 1841-1849 - discovery of the law of conservation of energy (R. Mayer, J. Joule, G. Helmholtz)
	bifurcation between TR II and TR III	1869 - Periodic system of elements (D.I. Mendeleev), 1865-1871 - electromagnetic field theory (D. Maxwell), 1877-1879. - statistical mechanics (L. Boltzmann, D. Maxwell), 1877 - kinetic theory of matter (L. Boltzmann), 1887 - discovery of electromagnetic radiation and photoelectric effect (G. Hertz)
	beginning of III TU - maturation III GC	1895 - discovery of X-rays (V. Roentgen), 1896 - discovery of radioactivity (A. Becquerel), 1898 - discovery of polonium and radium (P. Curie, M. Skladovskaya-Curie), 1899 - the discovery of quanta (M. Planck), 1903 - discovery of the electron (J. Thomson), 1903 - theory of the photoelectric effect (A. Einstein), 1905 - special theory relativity (A. Einstein), 1910 - planetary model of the atom (E. Rutherford, N.
	bifurcation between III TU and IV TU IV GK	1924 - the concept of wave-particle dualism (L. De Broglie), 1926 - discovery of spin (J. Uhlenbeck, S. Goudsmit), 1926 - W. Pauli prohibition principle, 1926 Apparatus of quantum mechanics (E. Schrödinger, W. Heisenberg), 1927 - the uncertainty principle (V. Heisenberg), 1938 - relativistic quantum theory (P. Dirac), 1932 - discovery of the positron (K. Anderson), 1938 - discovery of uranium fission (O. Gan, F. Strassman)
	bifurcation between IV TU and V TU V GK	nuclear energy, cosmonautics, genetics and molecular biology, semiconductor physics, nonlinear optics, personal computer

Economics of Nanotechnologies and Nanoproducts of Textile and Light Industry

Let us consider the economy of nanotechnologies and nanoproducts as a whole and its segment corresponding to the use of nanotechnologies in the production of fibers, textiles and clothing in accordance with the fact that the leading countries are moving from the 5th technological mode to the 6th technological mode.

Of course, nano-, bio- and information technologies received their initial development at the end of the 20th century, i.e. at the end of the 20th and at the beginning of the 21st centuries and have moved and will develop with even greater practical success in the 6th technological mode. This is confirmed by specific irrefutable statistical data and forecasts for the development of these areas until the middle of the 21st century (which will be given below).

Figure 2 shows the potential global market for nano products, which is projected to be 1.1 trillion DS by 2015. As can be seen, nano products such as materials (28%), electronics (28%) and pharmaceuticals (17%) make the largest contribution.

Figure 3 shows the real dynamics and prospects for the share of nanotechnologies in the global economy until 2030. In 2015, nanotechnology and its products will account for ~ 15% of global GDP, while in 2030 it will be 40%.

Figure 4 shows the dynamics of nanotechnology patents registered in the world. From 1900 to 2005, the number of patents grew 30 times. At the same time, ~ 50% of patents are in the USA.

Figure 2.

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

In this patent market, most of the patents are nanomaterials (38%) and nanoelectronics (~25%) and nanobiotechnology (~13%).

The global distribution structure of companies involved in nanotechnologies and nanoproducts by country is interesting (Figure 5.)

And this figure shows the dominant role of the United States, which is many times inferior to other developed countries.

There are 200 foreign patents registered in Russia and only 30 Russian patents, which means that our domestic market of nanoproducts is potentially legally conquered by imported nanoproducts, as happened with the market for medicines, cars, audio and video equipment, textiles, clothing, etc. In the period 2009–2015 gg. nanotechnologies will develop with an annual increase of 11%, including nanomaterials from 9.027 billion DS to 19.6 billion DS. DS with an annual increase of 14.7%, nanotools from 2.613 billion DS to 6.8 billion DS.

The volume of the market for goods produced using nanotechnology will grow in the period 2010-2013. with an annual increase of 49% and will be in 4 years - 1.6 trillion.DS.

World investment in nanotechnology from 2000 to 2006 increased by ~ 7 times; the US (~1.4 billion DS), Japan (~10 billion DS), the EU (12 billion DS), the rest of the world (12 billion DS) rank first in this indicator.

The place of Russia in the global economy of the nanoindustry

It should be borne in mind that Russia began to build a nanoindustry, develop nanotechnologies with the participation of the state 7-10 years later than the leading countries in this direction (USA, EU, Japan, China, India). With this in mind, you should look at the following statistics:

• the share of the Russian Federation in the global technology sector is 0.3%;
• the share of the Russian Federation in the world market of nanotechnologies is 0.004%;
• By 2008, 30 nanotechnology patents have been registered; 0.2% of the total number of patents in the world;
• the most developed in the Russian Federation is the production of instruments for the analysis of nanostructures (modern microscopes);
• 95% of produced nanomaterials are used not in industry, but for scientific research;
• among the produced nanomaterials, the main share is made up of nanopowders (the simplest nanotechnology). Russia produces 0.003% of the world's nanopowders;
• nanopowders in the Russian Federation are mainly oxides of metals (titanium, aluminum, zirconium, cerium, nickel, copper), which make up 85% of all nanopowders;
• carbon nanotubes in the Russian Federation are produced only in experimental batches;

The real contribution of nanotechnology to world economy illustrate the following figures - in 2009, 1015 products based on real nanotechnology were produced in the world. Investments in the period 2006–2009 increased by 379%, from 212 nanoproducts to 1015. Nanotextiles (115 products) occupy a significant place (~10%). As for other integral indicators, the leading place belongs to the USA (540 types of nanoproducts ~ 50%), Southeast Asia (240), EU (154). Russia is not mentioned in these, as in other statistics on nanotechnology.

Of the nanoproducts, colloidal nanosilver in various forms (259 products ~22%) occupies a leading position, carbon (including fullerenes) - 82 products, titanium dioxide - 50 products.

Fullerenes are currently produced in the world ~ 500 tons per year, single-walled and multi-walled carbon nanotubes ~ 100 tons per year, silicon nanoparticles - 100,000 tons per year, titanium dioxide nanoparticles ~ 5000 tons per year, zinc dioxide nanoparticles 20 tons per year.

The world economy of textiles and clothing (brief information)

Let's move from the economy of nanotechnology in the world to the economy of textile and light industry, starting with the general conjuncture of the production of these industries, including the production of fibers, without which textiles and much more cannot be produced.

The production of natural and chemical fibers, textiles of all kinds and products from it for traditional and technical purposes is one of the main sectors of the world economy, constantly ranking at least 5th in the pool of the most necessary for humans and for technology (it is also for humans) in terms of gross turnover, ahead of the global automotive industry, pharmaceuticals, tourism and weapons.

This is a general picture (“in oil”), but the structure (geography, assortment), segments of production and consumption of fibers, textiles and products from it has changed significantly:

• the production of traditional mass textiles, fibers, clothing has moved to developing countries with cheap labor force and soft requirements for the environment and working conditions. China became the world leader (world shoemaker and tailor);
• the production of innovative products with high added value remained in developed countries;
• the production of fibers used for the production of home, technical, medical and sports textiles has increased significantly and, accordingly, these sectors of the textile economy have taken an important place in the overall assortment;
• a significant part of chemical fibers, textiles and clothing is produced using nano-, bio- and information technologies, especially in the case of "smart", interactive, multifunctional textiles, primarily for protective clothing in the broad sense of the word;
• The most dynamically developing type of textiles has become non-woven materials produced using various (mechanical, chemical) technologies.

The most developed textile segments and assortment structure for 2008 - Europe (EU): clothing 37%, home textiles 33%, technical textiles 30%.

Technical textiles in the world add ~ 10–15% per year, and nonwovens grow by 30%.

In Germany, technical textiles in general production textiles is 45%, in France 30%, in England 12%.

The EU remains one of the world leaders in the production and export of textiles, in 2008 the EU produced textiles worth 203 billion DS, this sector of the economy employs 2.3 million people in 145 thousand companies (average number of employees ~ 16 people) and DS 211 billion in textile production was produced with an investment of DS 5 billion.

The trend towards an increase in the share of chemical fibers and a decrease in the share of natural ones continues: 2007 - chemical fibers 65:, 2006 - 62%. Chemical fiber production is moving from the US and Europe to developing countries.

In 1990, Western Europe and the USA produced 40% of all chemical fibers, and in 2007 only 12%. On the contrary, China in 1990 produced chemical fibers only 8.7%, and in 2007 55.8% of world production, i.e. became a world leader. In general, world textile production is growing: in 2007 textiles were produced for 4000 billion DS, and in 2012 it is planned to produce 5000 billion DS.

Global production of nanotextiles

2010 - "smart" nanotextiles, produced for 1.13 billion DS.

Technical nanotextiles 2007 - 13.6 billion DS, in 2012 it is planned to produce 115 billion DS.

Medical textiles - a significant part is produced using nanotechnology.

World production of medical textiles in 2007 in monetary terms amounted to 8 billion DS. Figure 7 shows the dynamics of growth in the production of medical textiles in the world by years (1995–2010).

Figure 7

A significant place in the total range of textiles is occupied by textiles in products for sports and recreation. In 2008, such textiles accounted for 10% of all textiles produced in the EU, the leader in this sector of the economy is Nike, which produces sports textiles in 2008 for 18.6 billion DS.

The market for clothing with embedded nanoelectronic devices in 2008 was 600 million DS.

Product and technological roadmaps for nano- and related high technologies

Recently, through the efforts of politicians, the phrase has become fashionable "Road maps" (for the first time, American politicians "Road Map" began to be used at the end of the last 20th century). Having adopted the well-known concept (Road Atlas, Road Atlas), politicians, scientists, technologists, economists filled it with a broader meaning, which boils down to the following - the road map should define:

• the end point of the movement, i.e. the purpose of the project (state, political, technological, economic, environmental, etc.);
• how this ultimate goal will be achieved (means of achievement: ideas, technologies, investments, institutions, etc.);
• temporary, fixed points; intermediate, phase and time to reach ultimate goal;
• participants in the campaign to the goal (scientific schools, corporations, firms, investors);
• what positive effects (technological, economic, consumer, environmental, etc.) have been achieved and what risks (environmental, social, etc.) may arise and which need to be prevented.

These questions and requirements for roadmaps are of a general nature and apply to forecasts in general and to nanotechnology products.

Of greatest interest is technological product roadmaps, of which there are many in relation to nanotechnology, both at the global level for the world as a whole, and for countries developing nanotechnology; road maps for the leading sectors of the economy (electronics, healthcare, defense, etc.) have been developed and are being developed.

Technological product roadmaps for nano-products of the textile and light industry are being developed abroad, but until they are holistic, they often vary greatly in terms of the set of products and the time they enter the market, and this is due to the fact that conventional and nanofibers, textiles, products from it are used in traditional (clothing, footwear, sports and home textiles) and new areas (technology, medicine, cosmetics, architecture, etc.); in other words, the production of nanotextiles, as well as traditional ones, is an interdisciplinary task, when each field of application sets its own specific requirements and it is extremely difficult to reflect all these features in a roadmap. But we will try to solve this problem to some extent. Roadmaps are not just a plan, a program of some project, they are drawn up for a long period (10–30 years) and take into account the evolution of the development of the main technology (in our case, nanotechnology), but also related to it and necessary for its implementation (in in our case, bio-, info- and other high technologies) areas.

The compilation of roadmaps requires a deep analysis by top-level specialists in various scientific and practical fields (physicists, mathematicians, chemists, materials scientists, psychologists, economists, etc.), since nanotechnology is an interdisciplinary problem. A well-designed roadmap, taking into account the evolution and mutual influence (including synergy) of all related technologies, indicates not only the route, the route for creating a product, but its evolution along the way to the final point in time.

Roadmaps are not a final, frozen product, but a constantly evolving tool that takes into account the constant changes in the possibilities of science, the development of technologies, the growing needs of society and technology.

Roadmaps, as a rule, are the product of collective creativity of a significant group of highly qualified experts or the result of a thorough analysis of the literature, a wide range of sources (scientific articles, patents, reviews, etc.).

The need for roadmaps has now arisen and is growing, as scientific and technological progress is becoming rapid, accelerating, compressing the time lag from an idea to its implementation into a product. But even during this time of the roadmap, new ideas and technologies arise that need to be taken into account in the roadmaps.

And since compiling roadmaps requires investments and considerable ones, it is likely that in the near future investors will demand roadmaps from the requester of investments along with a business plan. It should be noted that, unfortunately, in our country, the compilation of road maps has begun quite recently, the leader in this area is State University Higher School of Economics, fulfilling orders from RosNano in various areas of nanotechnology use.

So far, the textile and light industries have not become the object of attention of any federal structures (the Ministry of Education and Science, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation), as customers of the technological product roadmap for these industries.

Therefore, the author took the liberty (maybe excessive) and the initiative to draw up a technological roadmap for nanoproducts in the textile and light industries, including nanofibers (chemical industry). The proposed roadmap is based on an analysis of several hundred literary sources (over the past 10–15 years), the experience and intuition (as a rule, did not deceive) of the author. The roadmap has been drawn up in relation to the leading countries in the field of nanotechnology (USA, Germany, England, Scandinavian countries, Japan, China, India), but it highlights products and technologies that are of interest for implementation in Russia.

The author expresses a convincing request to those who are interested in this unconditionally subjective picture of the development of nanotechnology in the textile and light industry to send their comments and suggestions that will allow this picture (“oil”) to be closer to reality today and 10–30 years of the future. Thanks in advance for any criticism.

Initially, a list of keywords was compiled, i.e. a set of nanoproducts most often described in the literature for the following product groups:

• protective clothing (in the broad sense against a variety of dangerous activities) used in various fields (civilian, defense, freelance);
• fibers;
• ordinary everyday clothes;
• fashionable textiles;
• home textiles;
• sports textiles;
• textiles in medicine;
• textiles in cosmetics;
• textiles in technology:
  • structural composites;
  • geotextile;
  • building textiles.

When compiling the roadmap, the following important industry features were taken into account:

- multifunctional textile materials of a new generation are produced according to the classical scheme: production of fibers (natural, chemical) - spinning (yarn) - weaving (knitting, weaving, production of non-woven materials) - chemical technology (bleaching, dyeing, printing, finishing).

You can't get away from this classical scheme, individual phases of which in rare cases can be omitted. But this necessary long technological chain for the production of fibers, textiles, clothing, technical products with new properties at different stages is added in a combination (often) of nano-, bio- and information technologies. The most interesting new properties and effects are achieved precisely by combining these three high technologies, which synergistically influence each other and the multifunctionality of the material.

A very important remark follows from this provision. The classical textile technological chain and its industrial implementation (textile factories) are a mandatory production platform on which nano-, bio- and information technologies are mounted. By themselves, they hang in the air and are not an end in themselves, but can only be a seasoning for the main meal. But without these technologies it is impossible to obtain fibers, textiles, clothing with fundamentally new properties.

Recommendations for the production of nanoproducts (fibers, textiles, clothing) should take into account the state and capabilities of domestic textile and light industries, the state of science in this area, the availability of specialists, and not just the need for these products.

It was necessary to decide which products to classify as nanoproducts. This problem is discussed in the world literature, and it arises when economic evaluation and statistics.

As in other industries, all nanoproducts appearing on the market can be divided into two unequal groups:

1. received by "refined" nanotechnology (“bottom-up”, “top-down”), corresponding to the definition of nanotechnology, as “manipulation of nanoparticles with the formation of a strict ordered structure, with fundamentally new properties, due precisely to the nanosize and nanostructure of the macro-object”. This is how wildlife works “purely” in the synthesis of proteins, carbohydrates and other biological macro-objects.

   Man-made such nanotechnology is just beginning to emerge and the pioneers are electronics (transition from micro- to nanoelectronics). There are still no more than 5–10% of such pure nanoproducts.

2. "nanoproducts"(quotation marks can be removed with certain reservations) obtained using nanoparticles and nanoobjects produced using "pure" nanotechnology (carbon nanotubes, metal oxides, aluminosilicates, nanoemulsions, nanodispersions, nanofoams, etc.).

   There are many such products classified as nanofibers, nanotextiles, nanoclothing. They can be called products with the use of nanotechnology elements. At the same time, they acquire useful new and improved properties.

Below are product sets for nanoproducts of the main types of assortment.

Figure 8

1. (MT) – Medtextile
2. (TT) - Technical textiles
3. (ST) - Protective textiles
4. (DT) – Home textile
5. (ST) - Sports textiles
6. (MDT) – Fashion textiles

Initially, the list of key nanoproducts included more than 100 items of various assortment, significance, and advancement (technological, commercial, social). By selection and aggregation by purpose and technology, 50 nanoproducts remained on the list.

PRODUCT SET FOR THE NANOFIBER GROUP

(the number of stars characterizes the importance of the product for the Russian economy)

1****/** - Nanofibers obtained by electrospinning;

2****/** - Ultra-strong nanofibers, composite, filled with nanoparticles for composite structural materials;

3/* Nanofibers and products that ensure the weight distribution of pilots (drivers) and passengers of various modes of transport;

4/ – Conductive fibers and products for replacing copper cable in cars and other modes of transport;

5****/ - Carbon nanofibers (in composites, in medicine, sports equipment);

6/ – Dyable nanofilled polyolefin fibers;

7/** - Genetically modified spider silk;

8/* - Cellulose of microbiological origin;

9***/* - Genetically modified hemp;

PRODUCT SET FOR THE GROUP "PROTECTIVE TEXTILE FROM THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT"

1****/** - Textiles and clothing that regulates the temperature and humidity conditions in the underwear spaces;

2/*- Textiles and clothing absorbing, preserving and transforming the energy of the body;

3****/* - Clothing that prevents and protects against harmful external influences (toxic substances, radiation, biological weapons);

4/*** - Flame retardant fabric and clothing;

5/ - Home textiles, clothes that absorb harmful and unpleasant odors;

6****/*** – Antibacterial, antiviral textiles;

7/** Thermal underwear (bed, underwear);

8****/ - Camouflage (from night vision devices) textiles, clothing and shelters for vehicles;

9****/**** - Bulletproof clothing;

10/ – Water and oil repellent textiles;

11***/** - Repellent textiles and clothing that protect against blood-sucking insects.

PRODUCT SET FOR THE GROUP "TECHNICAL TEXTILE"

1/* - Textile with piezoelectric properties;

2/* – Tensile sensor fibers, textiles for flexible displays and nano-clothing;

3/* - Textile for solar panels;

4/* - Geotextile that monitors the state of the soil and strengthens the soil;

5/* - Textiles for nanocomposite (transparent) roofing and other architectural coatings;

6****/ - Water and air filters made of nanofibers and non-woven materials;

PRODUCT SET FOR THE GROUP "MEDICAL AND COSMETIC TEXTILE"

1/** - Water-repellent, antiseptic, antimicrobial textiles and clothing for medical staff and patients;

2/* - Clothing that monitors the state of the body (pulse, pressure, weight);

3/* - Fibers and textiles for artificial muscles, vessels, joints, cartilage, lungs, liver, kidneys, heart valves, suture material, for shape memory implants;

4/ - Therapeutic wound dressings of a new generation (reconstructive surgery) with controlled release of drugs and their targeted delivery to damaged tissue and organs;

5/- Anesthetic, hemostatic textiles for dentistry;

6/- Therapeutic cosmetic masks, as a depot of medicinal and cosmetic preparations;

7/* - Protective textiles for radiology;

8/* – Textile bioplatforms for reconstructive surgery (implants);

9/* - Nanofiber filters for respirators, hemodialysis machines and transfusion devices;

10***/** - Hygienic textiles based on nanofibers, nanobiocides;

11/ - Medical underwear as a depot of drugs;

12**/* - Fibers for bone regeneration based on composites;

PRODUCT SET FOR THE SPORTS TEXTILE GROUP

1/ – Composites based on carbon nanofibers for sports equipment (Formula 1, bobsleigh, boats, skis, spears, etc.);

2/ - Sensory clothing for monitoring the state of the athlete's body during training;

3/ – Suits for swimmers with high hydrodynamic properties;

PRODUCT SET FOR THE GROUP "HOME TEXTILE"

1*/- - Textile panels that change the pattern and color according to the program (color music);

2*/- - Textile mattresses that change ergonomic shape;

3***/- - Antimicrobial bed linen and bath accessories;

ELECTRONIC (TOUCH) TEXTILE

1***/- - Clothing with integrated audio, video equipment, communicating with external receivers and transmitters;

2*/- - Electronic textiles for flexible displays and navigation systems;

PRODUCT SET FOR THE FASHION TEXTILE GROUP

1/ - Textile "chameleon" (thermochromic);

2*/- - Luminous textiles;

3/ – Flavored textiles;

(out of 50 products, 31 are needed, and 18 can be produced if conditions are created for this).

Were evaluated according to the following 18 indicators (see the questionnaire on the example of "Wound dressings"), proposed by the author.

1. Product name New generation wound dressings with controlled release and targeted drug delivery
2. Assortment group(s) Medtextile
3. Fundamental scientific basis Mass transfer of nanoparticles in the body; the mechanism of healing of pathogenic tissues at the cellular and molecular levels
4. Technology(s) Nano- and biotechnologies
5. Applications Healing of wounds, burns, bedsores, ulcers, oncological neoplasms of near occurrence (skin, mucous membranes, neck, gynecology, etc.)
6. Presence in the global market One of the important directions in reconstructive surgery and in combined methods of cancer treatment
7. Presence on Russian market Present
8. Is it produced in Russia produced under the trade name "Coletex"
9. Can it be produced in Russia (problems) Requires expansion of production in accordance with growing needs
10. Is it necessary to produce in Russia Yes
11. Will it be competitive Of course, so far it has no analogues in the world
12. Do I need to import to Russia Not
13. Is it possible to produce in cooperation with other countries Yes
14. Risks (economic, etc.) from production and use Minimum, because targeted drug delivery
15. Members Manufactured by Coletex LLC, Textilprogress LLC IAR
16. Members. Research institutes and other research organizations Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, Ministry of Social Development of the Russian Federation, Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences, universities leading medical institutions RF
17. The need for specialist training In textile and related universities
18. "Clean" nanotechnology (NT) or NT elements Elements of Nano- and Biotechnologies

As you can see, the questionnaire offers a lot of indicators that need to be taken into account for compiling a road food map for the world and the Russian Federation. It would be possible to offer more parameters for evaluating each product, which would make it difficult for experts to work with it, and additional information would not. Here is a list of the most significant and relevant products, there were 50 of them. Fractions are put in front of each product / , where the numerator is the need for the Russian Federation, and the denominator is the possibility of production, the quantity * characterizes the level of significance of the factor.

Below, the figures show the 6 most significant product groups according to their purpose and their need for the Russian economy and the possibility of their production in the Russian Federation.

An analysis of numerous sources shows that the following groups of textile nanoproducts are the most significant for Russia (the importance decreases in the series): medical textiles, protective textiles, technical textiles, home textiles, sports textiles, and fashion textiles.

According to the possibilities of producing these products in the Russian Federation, they are ranked in the following descending order: technical textiles, protective textiles, medical textiles, home textiles, sports textiles, and fashion textiles.

Of course, the given estimates are averaged in each group, where within different products can differ significantly in significance and production capabilities. The difference between them (significance and possibility of production) will have to be compensated by imports, which is already happening at the present time, when this difference is huge.

In the questionnaire, for example, the characteristic data of one product from the group of medical textiles "Wound dressings of a new generation" are given. Such a detailed characterization was compiled for all selected nanoproducts of the main assortment groups.

In Figure 1-5, products are graphically arranged in five groups for each in the “need / opportunity” coordinates, which allows you to make a decision on the recommendation of specific products in three areas:

• produce;
• purchase technology and produce according to it;
• buy products.

Picture. The ratio of needs and opportunities to produce in the Russian Federation for the group "Medical Textiles"

Picture. The ratio of needs and the ability to produce in the Russian Federation for the group "Protective textiles"

Picture. The ratio of needs and the ability to produce in the Russian Federation for the group "Nanofibers"

Picture. The ratio of needs and opportunities to produce in the Russian Federation for the group "Technical Textiles"

Picture. The ratio of needs and opportunities to produce in the Russian Federation for the Fashion Textile group

Picture. The ratio of needs and opportunities to produce in the Russian Federation for the group "Home Textile"

Picture. The ratio of needs and the ability to produce in the Russian Federation for the group "Electronic (sensory) textiles"

Of course, these recommendations for federal agencies, businesses and individual manufacturers of fibers, textiles and clothing are purely expert assessment, but they are based on a study of a very large array of foreign data (more than 1000 foreign publications over the past 5–10 years by specialists from the USA, Germany, England, Japan, China, India), as well as domestic sources.

In case of interest from interested organizations and personalities for each product, in accordance with the proposed questionnaire, you can present the characteristics of this product, as well as propose technologies for its production that exist in Russia (very few) or they need to be developed or need to be purchased abroad and adapt to our conditions. Or, finally, purchase this product on the world market.

Interested organizations and individuals are absolutely free in their next steps. Any system strategic planning, including Forsythe, can offer nothing else. Then the initiative of the state, business, scientists, technologists begins.

G.E. Krichevsky
Professor, Doctor of Technical Sciences,
Honored scientist of the Russian Federation

KRICHEVSKY German Evseevich, Professor, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Honored Worker of the Russian Federation, UNESCO expert, Academician of the RIA and MIA, Laureate of the MSR State Prize

Graduated from the Moscow Textile Institute. A.N. Kosygin with a degree in Chemical Technology and Equipment for Finishing Production, in 1961 he defended his Ph.D. From 1956 to 1958 he worked at the Moscow Finishing Factory. Ya.M. Sverdlov as the head of the chemical station. Worked as a UNESCO expert in Burma (1962) and India (1968). From 1980 to 1990 headed the department "Chemical technology of fibrous materials" at MTI. A.N. Kosygin and the Branch Laboratory of the Ministry of Light Industry created at this department. In 1992, he moved to RosZITLP to the position of head. Department of Textile Coloring and Design and manages it to this day. Professor G.E. Krichevsky is also President Russian Union chemists, textile workers and colorists, general director of NPO "Textilprogress" RIA, editor-in-chief of the journal "Textile chemistry".

For a great contribution to domestic science, Professor G.E. Krichevsky awarded the title of Honored Scientist of the Russian Federation; in 2008 he was awarded the Order of Honor by the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation.

 

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